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Thread: OT - Selling My Equities

  1. #31
    The AMT applies for households making more than $200,000.
    27 percent of households with “expanded cash income” (which is a broad measure of income) between $200,000 and $500,000 will be affected by the AMT.
    That number rises to 59.1 percent for those with incomes between $500,000 and $1 million. Somewhere between 3-5% of all taxpayers will have incomes that require
    consideration of AMT. That also means that 95-97% of all taxpayers could be affected by loss of state and local tax deductions. It's a tax plan for very high income earners,
    but for the majority of tax payers in the blue state the Ryan/Trump tax cut will mean higher taxes. Since those states pay more to the Feds than the Feds return to the
    blue states, it's a double whammy.


    Quote Originally Posted by calbear93 View Post
    For most senior professionals, since state and local taxes are not deductible in calculating the alternate minimum tax, those deductions shouldn't be a factor. Most other deductions are phased out even without AMT. The only ones most of the people I know care about are the mortgage and charitable deductions. I just can't imagine mortgage deduction going away. It is too embedded in the way we view real estate, our homes, home ownership, etc. And it could create too much of a havoc on the real estate market.

  2. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by sp4149 View Post
    The AMT applies for households making more than $200,000.
    27 percent of households with “expanded cash income” (which is a broad measure of income) between $200,000 and $500,000 will be affected by the AMT.
    That number rises to 59.1 percent for those with incomes between $500,000 and $1 million. Somewhere between 3-5% of all taxpayers will have incomes that require
    consideration of AMT. That also means that 95-97% of all taxpayers could be affected by loss of state and local tax deductions. It's a tax plan for very high income earners,
    but for the majority of tax payers in the blue state the Ryan/Trump tax cut will mean higher taxes. Since those states pay more to the Feds than the Feds return to the
    blue states, it's a double whammy.
    It is not a good tax plan for high income earners in states with high state income taxes. I did some calculations for 1.5mm++ income earners. The lower fed tax rate evens out the loss of state income tax deductions. They do not gain anything. I hope this will be the end of high state income taxes. No more subsidy from Uncle Sam. Perhaps it will accelerate people leaving high tax states...

  3. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Goobear View Post
    It is not a good tax plan for high income earners in states with high state income taxes. I did some calculations for 1.5mm++ income earners. The lower fed tax rate evens out the loss of state income tax deductions. They do not gain anything. I hope this will be the end of high state income taxes. No more subsidy from Uncle Sam. Perhaps it will accelerate people leaving high tax states...
    Have you ever noticed that high tax states tend to be wealthier. Maybe there is something productive about schools and roads.

  4. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Goobear View Post

    Real estate is going to have to correct as well.

    Go Bears!
    As someone in real estate, totally agree, though I think the correction may be more regional.

  5. #35
    Golden Bear Cal89's Avatar
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    Just found this thread to share that I bought SPY puts earlier today. Seeing the VIX (S&P 500 Volatility Index) dip in the 11's, I decided to take-on this position. As one can see in this 5 year chart, my rationale. This approach has actually worked well for me over the years. Again, even if the market doesn't tank, it's "insurance", allowing me to stay fairly long....

    VIX 5 Yr.jpgVIX 5 Yr.jpgVIX 5 Yr.jpg
    The University of California - One of the finest universities in the world, is the oldest public university in our great state with origins dating back to 1855, and university status granted in 1868. Go Bears!

  6. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Cal89 View Post
    Just found this thread to share that I bought SPY puts earlier today. Seeing the VIX (S&P 500 Volatility Index) dip in the 11's, I decided to take-on this position. As one can see in this 5 year chart, my rationale. This approach has actually worked well for me over the years. Again, even if the market doesn't tank, it's "insurance", allowing me to stay fairly long....

    VIX 5 Yr.jpgVIX 5 Yr.jpgVIX 5 Yr.jpg
    When do those puts expire?

  7. #37
    Golden Bear Cal89's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dajo9 View Post
    When do those puts expire?
    June 2017. So, some time involved...
    The University of California - One of the finest universities in the world, is the oldest public university in our great state with origins dating back to 1855, and university status granted in 1868. Go Bears!

  8. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by dajo9 View Post
    Have you ever noticed that high tax states tend to be wealthier. Maybe there is something productive about schools and roads.
    Uhh, schools and roads were one helluva lot better with the first Gov Brown than they are now with higher taxes. Don't get your assumption. California has some of the worst of both in the nation right now.

  9. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by OdontoBear66 View Post
    Uhh, schools and roads were one helluva lot better with the first Gov Brown than they are now with higher taxes. Don't get your assumption. California has some of the worst of both in the nation right now.
    Even if you disagree with my second sentence (and since you do, I encourage you to send the children in your family to public schools in Alabama), my first sentence still stands.

  10. #40
    There is already a ton of cash sitting on the sidelines. Where is it going to go to chase returns? If not equities, RE, international, emerging, energy, or bonds then where? Please don't say precious metals.

    Fellow Cal Bear Alum:

  11. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by burritos View Post
    There is already a ton of cash sitting on the sidelines. Where is it going to go to chase returns? If not equities, RE, international, emerging, energy, or bonds then where? Please don't say precious metals.

    Fellow Cal Bear Alum:
    I've heard that there is a huge arbitrage opportunity in investing in life settlement investments(investing in life insurance policies). They crank out 10%+ year after year independent of market performance. After all people die regardless of market conditions. But there's no fungible product to purchase(like a mutual fund or ETF).

  12. #42
    Golden Bear Cal89's Avatar
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    I've often found Schiff's perspectives quite thought-provoking. His views on taxation, quite different, that we should be collecting on the consumption side, not penalizing production. The above quote was in advance to our financial crisis about 9 nine years ago...

    He's quite active on Twitter, for those interested in his thoughts. Between him and Doug Kass, that generally satisfies my daily bearish quota...
    The University of California - One of the finest universities in the world, is the oldest public university in our great state with origins dating back to 1855, and university status granted in 1868. Go Bears!

  13. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Cal89 View Post
    I've often found Schiff's perspectives quite thought-provoking. His views on taxation, quite different, that we should be collecting on the consumption side, not penalizing production. The above quote was in advance to our financial crisis about 9 nine years ago...

    He's quite active on Twitter, for those interested in his thoughts. Between him and Doug Kass, that generally satisfies my daily bearish quota...
    I problem with his gold perspective is that he thinks gold is going to go to 10,000 or 100,000 an oz and then he'll be a rich guy. I think if something like that occurs, then we'll be having a lot bigger problems than the misvaluations of fungible paper assets. We'll be in a Venezuela like situation where there are not enough goods and a breakdown in civil order will be happening. In that case, you should just stock up on guns, butter, and rain barrels, not gold.
    Last edited by burritos; 12-22-2016 at 11:52 AM.

  14. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by burritos View Post
    There is already a ton of cash sitting on the sidelines. Where is it going to go to chase returns? If not equities, RE, international, emerging, energy, or bonds then where? Please don't say precious metals.

    Fellow Cal Bear Alum:
    Peter Schiff always predicts a catastrophe. Someday he will be right and if he is still alive they'll have him back on CNBC

  15. #45
    I didn't know Peter Schiff was a Cal alum. That is disappointing. The guy sells gold and is constantly predicting inflation and calamity. The fact he was right in 2008 is like the proverbial stopped watch. In 2009 he was back to being wrong again, predicting hyperinflation.




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