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Thread: Oregon is about to knock off Maryland

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by really View Post
    What is yours? And what was it for 2016-17?
    My biases are well-known. If we finish second, I would attribute it to coaching on the positive side. If we finish sixth, I would attribute it to coaching on the negative underachieving side. I think third or fourth is where we should likely be projected based on our talent and player experience. I also think we underachieved this year and should not have lost games to teams like Utah, Colorado and WSU. But I would like to hear from others who have more knowledge on the subject.
    Last edited by annarborbear; 03-29-2017 at 10:39 PM.

  2. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by annarborbear View Post
    My biases are well-known. If we finish second, I would attribute it to coaching on the positive side. If we finish sixth, I would attribute it to coaching on the negative underachieving side. I think third or fourth is where we should likely be projected based on our talent and player experience. I also think we underachieved this year and should not have lost games to teams like Utah, Colorado and WSU. But I would like to hear from others who have more knowledge on the subject.
    Your opinions about Cal's roster and coaching are well-known... I was curious if you had your own analysis of the talent on other rosters, as you asked about in your earlier post.

  3. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by really View Post
    Your opinions about Cal's roster and coaching are well-known... I was curious if you had your own analysis of the talent on other rosters, as you asked about in your earlier post.
    My top four talent ranking for next year is UCLA, Stanford, Cal and Oregon. No one else is close next year. We can play with these teams, although only with great challenge with our current offensive system. Losing to any other teams will not be a talent or experience issue next year, in my opinion.

  4. #34
    Since WSU played without three of their starters the entire year, i wouldn't rule them out.

  5. #35
    It's too early to decide.
    A lot of changes next year. Everyone gets better on paper. Most team loose a ton, players will get better in off-season and more come in.

    OSU is getting a 6 ft 8 player (D-II player of the year)
    USC will have a post player (A. Clark) and maybe D. Littleton, plus Jordan Adams.
    Utah will be (better)
    The conference of Champions will be better.

    All games are all about matchups, Utah is not a bad team. To say Cal shouldn't loose to them is locker room material. lol

  6. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Kookiebean View Post
    It's too early to decide.
    A lot of changes next year. Everyone gets better on paper. Most team loose a ton, players will get better in off-season and more come in.

    OSU is getting a 6 ft 8 player (D-II player of the year)
    USC will have a post player (A. Clark) and maybe D. Littleton, plus Jordan Adams.
    Utah will be (better)
    The conference of Champions will be better.

    All games are all about matchups, Utah is not a bad team. To say Cal shouldn't loose to them is locker room material. lol
    Utah is now a very well-coached team that is a pleasure to watch. Also wish your daughter had come to Cal. Based on past experience, the Utes don't seem to need any locker room material in order to beat us. But we do have more talent and recruiting advantages, at least on paper.

  7. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by wvitbear View Post
    Since WSU played without three of their starters the entire year, i wouldn't rule them out.
    Brown played 7 games, Hrislova 9 and Molina 17. IIRC Molina had consecutive player of the week awards before she went down. What is impressive is that they beat Oregon by 16 at Oregon and us by 5 without their 3 best players. They have a pretty young team and all their starters (when healthy) return. They only lose Kmetovska. This is a team lost 20 games but played a very tough non-conference schedule. Certainly the most interesting team in the conference.

  8. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by annarborbear View Post
    My top four talent ranking for next year is UCLA, Stanford, Cal and Oregon. No one else is close next year. We can play with these teams, although only with great challenge with our current offensive system. Losing to any other teams will not be a talent or experience issue next year, in my opinion.
    To claim that no one else is close definitely overstates the case, and makes it seem like your 'analysis' is biased or incomplete.... Oregon State, for instance, has Gulich returning as an all-conf selection who matches up well with Anigwe, and has recruited very well the last couple years so is not exactly short on talent.

    Also, I agree with Kookiebean that matchups are always important - and you seem to neglect taking this into account. Interestingly, Cal matched up well with UCLA and Oregon (2 teams that probably have more talent), and Cal's offensive system didn't seem to be greatly challenged (and certainly wasn't the reason for the last-second loss to OR).

    Also agree with the post that said WSU is a dangerous wildcard... all those international players aren't necessarily evaluated as well as U.S. players (which itself is not always that well at all), but they may have won the last 2 FOY awards if not for injury, so depending on health they could have some good talent returning.

  9. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by really View Post
    To claim that no one else is close definitely overstates the case, and makes it seem like your 'analysis' is biased or incomplete.... Oregon State, for instance, has Gulich returning as an all-conf selection who matches up well with Anigwe, and has recruited very well the last couple years so is not exactly short on talent.

    Also, I agree with Kookiebean that matchups are always important - and you seem to neglect taking this into account. Interestingly, Cal matched up well with UCLA and Oregon (2 teams that probably have more talent), and Cal's offensive system didn't seem to be greatly challenged (and certainly wasn't the reason for the last-second loss to OR).

    Also agree with the post that said WSU is a dangerous wildcard... all those international players aren't necessarily evaluated as well as U.S. players (which itself is not always that well at all), but they may have won the last 2 FOY awards if not for injury, so depending on health they could have some good talent returning.
    So if you believe that we don't have a talent advantage this many years into LG's coaching tenure, whose fault is that? Do you believe that somebody else did the recruiting? In the end, we are still a 10-28 team that needs to go 28-10 to just break even.
    Last edited by annarborbear; 04-01-2017 at 06:48 AM.

  10. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by annarborbear View Post
    So if you believe that we don't have a talent advantage this many years into LG's coaching tenure, whose fault is that? Do you believe that somebody else did the recruiting? In the end, we are still a 10-28 team that needs to go 28-10 to just break even.
    Wow, you seem to have a lot of trouble staying on point.... I never said Cal has no talent advantage; and of course coaches are ultimately responsible for a program's recruiting -- but that is a very different point than your usual tune about challenged offensive systems.

    More rational, nuanced points about LG's recruiting have been made many times here before (such as the gap in 2012, and the guards who have left for different reasons) and don't need to be rehashed here, since you don't appear to consider such things in reaching your conclusions.

    But you should probably get your facts straight -- Cal is 10-26 in the last 2 years -- and cherry-picking time frames like only those last 2 years instead of LG's "coaching tenure," which would be 6 years and 66-42 is generally unhelpful except to support specific biases.

  11. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by really View Post
    Wow, you seem to have a lot of trouble staying on point.... I never said Cal has no talent advantage; and of course coaches are ultimately responsible for a program's recruiting -- but that is a very different point than your usual tune about challenged offensive systems.

    More rational, nuanced points about LG's recruiting have been made many times here before (such as the gap in 2012, and the guards who have left for different reasons) and don't need to be rehashed here, since you don't appear to consider such things in reaching your conclusions.

    But you should probably get your facts straight -- Cal is 10-26 in the last 2 years -- and cherry-picking time frames like only those last 2 years instead of LG's "coaching tenure," which would be 6 years and 66-42 is generally unhelpful except to support specific biases.
    I do have a recency bias. Prior to the past two years, Lindsay had been using a number of players recruited by Joanne Boyle. In the more recent all-Lindsay era, her conference record has been worse than that of Cooper-Dykes. But I do hope you are right. One more year out of the top four in the conference will likely have a negative impact on future recruiting from which it will be hard to recover.

    As for the offensive system, I think you are overlooking how this scheme was previously heavily dependent on the unique passing abilities of Brittany, who could really thread the needle, and Rashandra, who with her great hands almost never dropped a pass and who had the strength to fight through opposing players inside. Kristine is more of a finesse player with terrific moves, but who also needs some space in which to use those moves. This system too often leaves her without that space in which to operate. Things did start to work better when she was coached to set up at the free throw line or the baseline at least some of the time.

    You have yet to offer any suggestions of your own on any changes the coaches do need to make. In my opinion, it could be helpful if Lindsay could hire Sue Bird as an off-season offensive consultant. Bird is a true expert, and her comments on television about our current offensive system were not laudatory.
    Last edited by annarborbear; 04-01-2017 at 05:26 PM.

  12. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by annarborbear View Post
    I do have a recency bias. Prior to the past two years, Lindsay had been using a number of players recruited by Joanne Boyle. In the more recent all-Lindsay era, her conference record has been worse than that of Cooper-Dykes. But I do hope you are right. One more year out of the top four in the conference will likely have a negative impact on future recruiting from which it will be hard to recover.

    As for the offensive system, I think you are overlooking how this scheme was previously heavily dependent on the unique passing abilities of Brittany, who could really thread the needle, and Rashandra, who with her great hands almost never dropped a pass and who had the strength to fight through opposing players inside. Kristine is more of a finesse player with terrific moves, but who also needs some space in which to use those moves. This system too often leaves her without that space in which to operate. Things did start to work better when she was coached to set up at the free throw line or the baseline at least some of the time.

    You have yet to offer any suggestions of your own on any changes the coaches do need to make. In my opinion, it could be helpful if Lindsay could hire Sue Bird as an off-season offensive consultant. Bird is a true expert, and her comments on television about our current offensive system were not laudatory.
    I tend to agree with much of what Clay has said in previous posts: that the options are limited by having only one real scorer and not enough consistent 3pt shooters (especially vs zones)... so I would think all the fancy bells and whistles a coach or consultant might come up with are still going to struggle if the opponents play smart defense.

    So I might only suggest a couple tweaks (I don't know much in the way of offensive systems myself -- in my 9 & 10-yr old league, I consider it a success if they set a few screens each game), which probably wouldn't make the offense look much smoother... but given how close many of Cal's losses were this year, may have made the record look better.

    I agree and think you made a good point that Kristine is not as strong with/out the ball as Gray. I'm not sure how you would get her more space to operate, but I was just going to suggest trying to get her stronger in the off-season. For someone that athletic, she seemed to get knocked off balance too much and spent way more time on the floor than I remember Gray ever doing. Hopefully, a different focus in the weight room could yield benefits -- if they hadn't been working on that before.

    Also, the half court offense often seemed too slow to develop, so maybe just starting to run plays more quickly -- even if it doesn't work, then you can have time to run through a second option (passing it back into the post, for example, after it had already gone in once but had to be kicked out) without as much time pressure from the shot clock running down.

    Sue Bird is a true expert PG, but not an expert commentator... and I usually am reluctant to take what most commentators say as truths, because they usually know less about a team even than fans, who watch them more regularly -- and certainly less than the coaches (and also because wbb announcers are generally not very good imo).

    Bird went on about how other players besides Anigwe need to be encouraged to shoot to develop their confidence, implying (as I think I've also seen on this board) that Cal coaches must be actively discouraging players to take shots. Of course, if Gabby Green was not discouraged from shooting 3ptrs in the same offense (and I know I've seen posts complaining she shot too many), I don't imagine that LG suddenly reversed course and started banning shots. (Also, Bird wouldn't know that Range's 3pt attempts dropped significantly during the course of the season due to her injury -- she and the coaches showed plenty of confidence in her shot pre-conf and last season.)



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