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Thread: Game Theory and Trump: Haas Style

  1. #1

    Game Theory and Trump: Haas Style

    There is a Haas professor who some us know (he posts on BI) who said Trump was going to win long before anyone thought it was possible (and your got damn lucky on that score my friend). The guy is not a conservative (is there one on the Cal faculty?), but used game theory as a basis for his determination. His view is basically the media and many segments of American society are receptive to communicating contrarian views, the more outlandish the better, and thus the game strategy involves making dramatic statements and then ultimately dialing them back to gain greater community acceptance under the assumption that the provacative statements are sufficient for the core communicators (it is a sequential game), especially where the opponent (Clinton in this case) doesn't operate with complete knowledge of your strategy, and thus aids your strategy. So you say you will build a wall around Mexico to keep all immigrants out which Mexico will pay for, you then only will keep bad amigos out, you then only build a wall on a portion of the border where it is practical, then the US is paying for the small wall and will be reimbursed out to taxes and tariffs, and you get the idea. In any event, this guy said, before Trump became President, that Trump will start another cold war with Russia (or at least continue the adversary relationship under Obama) and make progress with China. We all laughed. Today the headlines on Google news are relations with Russia has hit a low and the US and China are announcing a currency deal. May have to bone-up on my game theory and study this guy's post. We are no longer laughing. And no, he can name himself or he stays anonymous. FWIW, I assumed Trump operated under a chaos model (it certainly isn't a social choice model given how much he changes his views), but WTF do I know? BTW, Trump did a U-trun on NATO today, as the same Professor predicted. Can we try to keep this to game theory and Haas as we are intellectuals here and not barbarians like on some other school boards?

  2. #2
    Can he figure out Cal football now?

  3. #3
    I'm not buying Trump operates on theory or is strategic. I think he's 100% situational.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by socaliganbear View Post
    Can he figure out Cal football now?
    Game theory is far less complicated than Cal football. I don't think Einstein could figure that out.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by wifeisafurd View Post
    Game theory is far less complicated than Cal football. I don't think Einstein could figure that out.
    I think most republican candidates in that primary would have won against Hillary.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by wifeisafurd View Post
    There is a Haas professor who some us know (he posts on BI) who said Trump was going to win long before anyone thought it was possible (and your got damn lucky on that score my friend). The guy is not a conservative (is there one on the Cal faculty?), but used game theory as a basis for his determination. His view is basically the media and many segments of American society are receptive to communicating contrarian views, the more outlandish the better, and thus the game strategy involves making dramatic statements and then ultimately dialing them back to gain greater community acceptance under the assumption that the provacative statements are sufficient for the core communicators (it is a sequential game), especially where the opponent (Clinton in this case) doesn't operate with complete knowledge of your strategy, and thus aids your strategy. So you say you will build a wall around Mexico to keep all immigrants out which Mexico will pay for, you then only will keep bad amigos out, you then only build a wall on a portion of the border where it is practical, then the US is paying for the small wall and will be reimbursed out to taxes and tariffs, and you get the idea. In any event, this guy said, before Trump became President, that Trump will start another cold war with Russia (or at least continue the adversary relationship under Obama) and make progress with China. We all laughed. Today the headlines on Google news are relations with Russia has hit a low and the US and China are announcing a currency deal. May have to bone-up on my game theory and study this guy's post. We are no longer laughing. And no, he can name himself or he stays anonymous. FWIW, I assumed Trump operated under a chaos model (it certainly isn't a social choice model given how much he changes his views), but WTF do I know? BTW, Trump did a U-trun on NATO today, as the same Professor predicted. Can we try to keep this to game theory and Haas as we are intellectuals here and not barbarians like on some other school boards?
    I'm more familiar with this theory by the name of the Overton Window rather than as game theory. Trump has definitely shifted the Overton Window.

    Otherwise, I reject the notion that Trump has changed our relationship with Russia or China much. In fact, I think the whole charade with Russia is posturing because of all the facts coming out about people in the Trump campaign being Russian agents. But that's just an opinion - for now.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by GB54 View Post
    I'm not buying Trump operates on theory or is strategic. I think he's 100% situational.
    Yes it would be a mistake for anyone to assume that Trump intelligently created a plan and a strategy. What he discovered doing business was that his bombastic personality and lying to everyone about everything worked, and the benefits to screwing everyone over was better than any consequences he's had to pay. Then he discovered that it works in politics as well. Who woulda thunk?

    Trump basically Forrest Gumped his way to the presidency. Just his basic personality and help from some key players and here we are.

  8. #8
    True Blue Golden Bear going4roses's Avatar
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    It was clear trump was going to win everbody didnt see that?

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by going4roses View Post
    It was clear trump was going to win everbody didnt see that?
    I guess some of us in the 3 million vote majority hadn't appropriately meted out the vote distribution among the states. But kudos to you.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by burritos View Post
    I think most republican candidates in that primary would have won against Hillary.
    I disagree. Trump won the industrial Midwest by running to HILLARY's left against free trade. No other Republican could have done that.

  11. #11
    The polls on a national level were not wrong, HRC had a small but significant edge. But obviously the polls got it wrong in several key states, and I hope we get a clear explanation in 2020 of what went wrong in 2016 and how the polling improved for 2020.

    Hillary's mistake was trusting the polls too much and ignoring several states that she thought she had in the bag. The question is whether she could have made a difference if she had known she was in trouble in those states. Hillary is so polarizing maybe it wouldn't have mattered.

    Micheal Moore predicted a Trump win, but he's a man from Flint who certainly has a much better pulse on what people are going through and thinking in the meat of the country. I can't pretend to understand how people think in the mid-west and south. It wasn't obvious to me that Trump was going to win.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by going4roses View Post
    It was clear trump was going to win everbody didnt see that?
    Lots of intelligent people didn't see it coming. A lot of them get paid to predict, Nate Silver and most pollsters aren't dummies.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by going4roses View Post
    It was clear trump was going to win everbody didnt see that?
    I thought Hillary was going to landslide Orangegatang.

  14. #14
    This didn't happen in a vacuum. It's been building for a long time- the crash of 2008 with no reprisals, the middle class going backwards; the taint of globalization and unfettered corporate power trampeling local human needs; fear about refugees and immigration. All of this has led to a rise of populism and nationalism, both left and right- in Greece, Spain, Brexit, France and Eastern Europe (Poland, Romania) and here. This is a huge global story one the myopic US press and pollsters don't see but the people get it. Things are going to change a lot- for better or worse is still a question.

  15. #15
    Sounds more like Martial Science than Game theory but they both work. Martial Science is Martial arts but with actions instead of any physical maneuvers and yes some call both strategies Martial Arts. Its like a rich guy dating a poor unemployed yet attractive woman. He realizes she's trying to get pregnant and he calls the locksmith to change the locks. she, knowing its her last day in the house most knock him out before he throws her out and gets him into and argument until he pushes her. She gave him the knock out blow without throwing a punch. Its the science of the mind and by knowing your opponent well, you can assure victory. They say Nine elven was a unifying event for america others say it was game theory or Martial Science. this wast the rare case of it being neither for it was Hegelian Dialectic or Action Reaction Solution. If you want to know how it feels to be the recipient watch CNN.


    P.S. Game theory doesn't predict anything. There is no one saying, based on game theory, I see Trump as the next president. Game theory, as used by Trump, is a tactic to get somewhere or something done that would be difficult if not impossible without it.




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