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Thread: Game Theory and Trump: Haas Style

  1. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by dajo9 View Post
    I'm more familiar with this theory by the name of the Overton Window rather than as game theory. Trump has definitely shifted the Overton Window.

    Otherwise, I reject the notion that Trump has changed our relationship with Russia or China much. In fact, I think the whole charade with Russia is posturing because of all the facts coming out about people in the Trump campaign being Russian agents. But that's just an opinion - for now.
    Not to scare you, because this post is impressive as all heck, but of all people, Glenn Beck wrote a novel titled the "Overton Window."

  2. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by wifeisafurd View Post
    Not to scare you, because this post is impressive as all heck, but of all people, Glenn Beck wrote a novel titled the "Overton Window."
    The Overton Window has long been a big topic for kooks on the right

  3. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by GB54 View Post
    This didn't happen in a vacuum. It's been building for a long time- the crash of 2008 with no reprisals, the middle class going backwards; the taint of globalization and unfettered corporate power trampeling local human needs; fear about refugees and immigration. All of this has led to a rise of populism and nationalism, both left and right- in Greece, Spain, Brexit, France and Eastern Europe (Poland, Romania) and here. This is a huge global story one the myopic US press and pollsters don't see but the people get it. Things are going to change a lot- for better or worse is still a question.
    You are on to something here. The coin is in the air: heads or tails---we wait.

  4. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by OdontoBear66 View Post
    You are on to something here. The coin is in the air: heads or tails---we wait.
    Hey Odonto, you must be very upset. March had the largest Federal outlays ever in the history of the country.

  5. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by dajo9 View Post
    The Overton Window has long been a big topic for kooks on the right
    Now that I actually know what the Overton Window is, I can why people outside of mainstream on both sides of the political spectrum focus on the theory. Interesting stuff. Now, try having this discussion on the SC board.

  6. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by MaximusArelliusDaBearius View Post

    P.S. Game theory doesn't predict anything. There is no one saying, based on game theory, I see Trump as the next president. Game theory, as used by Trump, is a tactic to get somewhere or something done that would be difficult if not impossible without it.
    Assuming your right that Trump did use game theory, I think the Professor looked at outcomes and made predictions based on how Trump plays the game. As may be apparent, I'm a complete novice in the game theory area, but find it fascinating.

  7. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by TouchedTheAxeIn82 View Post
    The polls on a national level were not wrong, HRC had a small but significant edge. But obviously the polls got it wrong in several key states, and I hope we get a clear explanation in 2020 of what went wrong in 2016 and how the polling improved for 2020.
    None of the polls were "wrong" per se. You get what you pay for. State polls are often not done with the same investment as national polls and so they get a lower quality data. Garbage in, garbage out. If there was a mistake it was putting faith in polls you should know will be unreliable.
    Last edited by Go!Bears; 04-13-2017 at 07:09 AM.

  8. #23
    True Blue Golden Bear heartofthebear's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wifeisafurd View Post
    There is a Haas professor who some us know (he posts on BI) who said Trump was going to win long before anyone thought it was possible (and your got damn lucky on that score my friend). The guy is not a conservative (is there one on the Cal faculty?), but used game theory as a basis for his determination. His view is basically the media and many segments of American society are receptive to communicating contrarian views, the more outlandish the better, and thus the game strategy involves making dramatic statements and then ultimately dialing them back to gain greater community acceptance under the assumption that the provacative statements are sufficient for the core communicators (it is a sequential game), especially where the opponent (Clinton in this case) doesn't operate with complete knowledge of your strategy, and thus aids your strategy. So you say you will build a wall around Mexico to keep all immigrants out which Mexico will pay for, you then only will keep bad amigos out, you then only build a wall on a portion of the border where it is practical, then the US is paying for the small wall and will be reimbursed out to taxes and tariffs, and you get the idea. In any event, this guy said, before Trump became President, that Trump will start another cold war with Russia (or at least continue the adversary relationship under Obama) and make progress with China. We all laughed. Today the headlines on Google news are relations with Russia has hit a low and the US and China are announcing a currency deal. May have to bone-up on my game theory and study this guy's post. We are no longer laughing. And no, he can name himself or he stays anonymous. FWIW, I assumed Trump operated under a chaos model (it certainly isn't a social choice model given how much he changes his views), but WTF do I know? BTW, Trump did a U-trun on NATO today, as the same Professor predicted. Can we try to keep this to game theory and Haas as we are intellectuals here and not barbarians like on some other school boards?
    There is some truth to this but it has nothing to do with a game.
    If you watch the Frontline documentary on youtube called "Choice 2016" (I think) it does a great job of showing the history of Clinton and Trump from childhood forward. Trump developed a strategy of boldness and hyperaggressiveness when he retained a tough mobster attorney named Roy Cohn. Not the Cone in the current administration. Sorry I will edit with links once I get these details straight. Anyway, he will not ever back down or admit defeat even if he is forced to moderate his boldness. That has been the influence of Cohn on him since he retained him regarding charges of racism in housing discrimination. A lawsuit he lost, btw.

    Anyway, to understand Trump, watch the youtube doc.
    I will try to provide link later.

    Edit:
    OK Here is the link to the youtube full length PBS Frontline Doc:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7uScWHcTzk
    Last edited by heartofthebear; 04-13-2017 at 07:15 AM.

  9. #24
    Trump's "game theory" is the poker player who bets wildly and erratically. What this does is change his opponent's strategy. He's good at it; but such bettors eventually are had

  10. #25
    Looperbear - A lot of people did not see it coming and out of jealousy, consternation or whatever, they attack those who did predict accurately.
    My adviser in grad school was Leslie T. Wilkins , the former head statistician for the Home Office in London. He told me that a man who can predict the future better than you can has a n insight you don't have.
    Those of us who are Biblical scholars explain it away by quoting First Corinthians 1:27 "God has chosen those the world deems absurd to shame the wise."

  11. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by GB54 View Post
    This didn't happen in a vacuum. It's been building for a long time- the crash of 2008 with no reprisals, the middle class going backwards; the taint of globalization and unfettered corporate power trampeling local human needs; fear about refugees and immigration. All of this has led to a rise of populism and nationalism, both left and right- in Greece, Spain, Brexit, France and Eastern Europe (Poland, Romania) and here. This is a huge global story one the myopic US press and pollsters don't see but the people get it. Things are going to change a lot- for better or worse is still a question.
    Agree with this. Lot's of forces at work, Trump was able to correctly harness the situation or is just another leaf boat riding a gutter full of water.

  12. #27
    True Blue Golden Bear going4roses's Avatar
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    Polls at no point played into what i saw trump was tapped in.

    Obama + Hill = Trump all day every day.

  13. #28
    Loyal Bear BerlinerBaer's Avatar
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    The messy divorce between Trump and Putin was not a question of if, but when.

  14. #29
    Golden Bear oskirules's Avatar
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    Anyway, to understand Trump, watch the youtube doc.
    I will try to provide link later.

    Edit:
    OK Here is the link to the youtube full length PBS Frontline Doc:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7uScWHcTzk
    Thanks for sharing. Riveting.

  15. #30
    This is all Dunning Kruger for someone who was gifted with a multi muillion dollar cushion to mask any mistakes he made throughout his life.

    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which low-ability individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability as much higher than it really is. Psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger attributed this bias to a metacognitive incapacity, on the part of those with low ability, to recognize their ineptitude and evaluate their competence accurately.



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