Idle Curiosity: Bird as Crabbe's Replacement Next Year
Let's assume our next year's Bears have as starters the same four and the fifth is Bird in place of Crabbe.
Will Bird be an adequate replacement in his first college season?
I am curious to hear from those who have a good take on Bird, who have watched him play.
If Crabbe leaves for NBA, it is due to fact he is a 1st round draft pick.
Originally Posted by south bender
He probably will not leave if his projected draft position is 2nd round.
To replace him will not be easy for any new player to just come in and do same... 20 points and 6 rebounds...., 48% from field, and 40% from behind the 3.... Add to fact one player is 21 and other is 18. With that said, it would be hard to find a better fit to fill Crabbe shoes than Bird.
Where is Crabbe Going?
Seriously, he is a first round draft pick? In the NBA? Highest I've seen him is mid-2nd round. A lot of mock drafts don't list him.
AC is with us likely another year. No big deal. He will vastly improve his draft stock by getting another year in the weight room under his belt and showing a greater ability to finish through contact. Bird will be, I think, a GREAT 6th man. Both men's future of making $$$ in the game is very bright.
Bigger issue - who takes Robert's minutes. We need another option on the front line.
Good discussion here.. Taking the OP's question as presented as a starting point, Jabari would be a perfect, and perhaps a step up from Allen. He has a different game, with plus athleticism versus AC and his game is better on the ball than Alle. That said, he will be replacing a 3 year D1 player and will need to adjust to the level of play. I'd prefer, and I believe AC would benefit from, another yr at Cal.
The follow on question about Robert's minutes is interesting and perhaps more difficult to answer as we have nobody like him on the roster and (currently) nobody like him coming in. Will DK and Solo continue to improve? Undoubtedly, but I don't see them filling Robert's role at all. However, assuming everyone in the 1-3 roles returns, we'll be a very much outside in team next year...
I don't see AC as a first round draft choice next year. While he has an exceptional outside shot, he needs time to get set up and release the ball. When confronted with on the ball pressure, AC has a lot of trouble. There is no question that he is working on his drives and finishing on his drives. However, he doesn't finish well on short pull up jumpers or tear drop shots in the lane, yet. His hops are average and his explosiveness on the dribble is not first rate which causes him trouble on his drives.
I love him at Cal, but if he plays pros he will be limited by his deficiencies and end up a role player at best, like Steve Novak with the Knicks.
Originally Posted by goldmountain
I was not saying Crabbe will be a 1st round selection, only that he will not be around next year if he is a 1st round projected pick. If he is projected to be a mid/late 2nd round pick, his plan will probably be to stay for his 4th year and move up in the draft (to the 1st round) In addition, one can apply for the draft and not take an agent on and have option to return if not drafted.
As far as who will pick up the Thurman's minutes, Solo and Kravich can average 2 to 5 more MPG each more next season, while Behrens Frid, and Rodriquez steps up to take those minutes... (This assumes no new 4/5 type signing between now and next year) Similar to how Thurman stepped into his current role over the past few years.
But... let's be realistic here, he is the backup center....that is not the hardest area to cover next year.
(currently at 3.6 rbp, 5.6 ppg)
Last edited by gobears; 12-24-2012 at 08:14 PM.
I agree he is still working on finishing and driving but my impression was that he jumps really well, though I could be wrong. Does anyone know his vertical leap?
Originally Posted by goldmountain
Also you mention that he needs time to get set. I have the impression that he often hesitates unnecessarily, and that he could get many more shots off if he didn't. His actual shot seems quick enough, and he rarely if ever is blocked.
My comment about the quickness of AC's outside shots may be colored by the fact that I just went to a Warriors game and sat a few rows up from courtside. I was watching closely the shot attempts by Thompson and Curry. They were the focus of the defense and they still got their shots up without hesitation and quickly with accuracy. In my view, if AC received the same attention as those two got, he would have a great deal of trouble getting his shot off. But who knows? Maybe I'm overstating this point. However, against the better teams that we played like Creighton and Wisconsin, he had his troubles.
Saying all this, I love him to death. We will be better served if he stays and can team with our new recruits next year. With this recruiting class we will have some quality depth for the first time in years.
True Blue Golden Bear
first, Crabbe as a Senior is > then Bird as a freshmen. However even if they were approximately equal, I worry that we won't have a big 3 point threat next year if Crabbe leaves. Powers would probably be our best 3 point shooter (Bird has a better middle range game, but isn't a pure outside shooter).
As for Crabbe leaving early. I've said elsewhere that he's likely gone, however I agree that he doesn't have the quick release of Thompson. I was always amazed how quick that guy got his shot off in college. Perhaps the quickest release I've ever seen in college.
‘I don’t need easy, I need possible.’ Jorge Gutierrez
I don't think this should be very high on our worry list. At this point Crabbe doesn't appear to be ready for the NBA, so I think he'll be back for his senior year.
Last edited by Golden One; 12-25-2012 at 01:36 PM.
You have that kind of talent, you wonder if Crabbe and Byrd start along with Cobbs.
True Blue Golden Bear
Merry Christmas everyone!
The unwrapping insanity is pretty much over. Phew!
Every time we have this armchair QB discussion it ends up in with the same ending. The truth is, Larry Bird ain't walking thru that door. We aren't going to have the stud center or PF that this team needs. It's just not happening.
Now then, what we do have is really fantastic. Talk already this year is about Cobbs and Crabbe being the top guard combo in the Pac. Well, they are coming back next year, and just think how much better they will be. Add a seasoned Wallace, a healthy Kreklow, and a stud Bird to the mix. That's 5 exciting players. Who knows what some of the others can do: Mathews, Singer, Johnson. Then, you've got Kravish and Solo with some height, but not the thickness needed for the traditional post game.
What could Monty do with our 5 guards? Open it up. Run. Spread the floor. Trap, create havoc. Play free and unrestrained. It could be Monty's biggest coaching challenge in a long time. And most rewarding.
Time will tell, but I'm excited. Some of the best gifts, you have to wait a long time to open.
True Blue Golden Bear
Absolutely! There is little doubt those 3 start - it's just who are the other 2. One would have to think Kravish and Solomon at this point, based on how Monty uses them already - with Wallace and Kreklow first 2 off the bench. Either could be the 6th man of the year in such a scenario.
Originally Posted by mbBear
Given Crabbe's recent seeming improvement in his beating his man off the dribble, it is plausible that the skills he has needed to add will continue to develop over the next half season.
It seems likely that he will want at minimum to test the waters at the end of this year. Depending on how much he grows, he may get some encouragement as low first or high second round. If so, I would guess he is gone.
Admittedly this is speculation and is colored by my admiration of Allen.
I see him as a young man just now beginning to catch up with his body and potential. So I expect to see a more developed player in three months from now.
We know for certain that Allen wants to play in the NBA. If it appears he has a good shot at doing so next year, he will take it.