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  (#31) Old
aweissburg aweissburg is offline
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04-14-2010, 12:10 PM

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Originally Posted by socaltownie View Post
You may know on this more than I but I thought that even with the 30 year payment plan the commitment is pretty binding and can't be easily broken. Thus once Cal gets the contract signed you are "all in" - just a question of whether lump sumed or amortized over either 5 or 30 years. If they are at 60% of BUDGET at this point they are doing great. If they are at 60% of SEATS still work to be done because I have to believe the club seats are going to be the pain. Not undoable but that is a pretty ding.

If they have to get recommits from all 30 year ESP owners each year you are absolutely right - the football team is going to be expected NEVER to fall back into the bad old days - and probably compete for the conference crown every year or else they are going to have problems.
I considered the ESP and talked to some of the reps (ultimately passing since I couldn't justify the expense living in LA). My understanding is the commitment isn't "binding" in the traditional sense that you're stuck for 30 years. It is a pledge and you are locked in at a rate for the seats and interest rate on the carry. The ESP is transfereable and you get 40 years for the price of 30 (that's the hook). But it seems like you're obligated/entitled to re-up every year, opening the door for not doing that. Haven't seen the contract since, as noted, I didn't get past the term sheet phase with them.

As for the bigger issue (and ignoring the hypothesis/theory) discussion, I have to say I've heard from a few sources who teach at Cal that Alamar was a done deal after the Bowl Game. As for Gregory, I think JT made it clear things needed to change, Gregory didn't want to change, so Gregory left. Describing it as his decision, being pushed out, whatever, is really not all that important to me. Gregory is gone, and it wasn't by accident (and probably not by firing squad) nor entirely his "choice."

I think the outcome, the conclusion, of having two "friends" leaves means JT has heard the message. And I think that coaches typically get fired for three reasons: bad record (I don't think that is the case here), sanctions (nope) or a perception that the coach cannot change and they've hit their peak. JT's current status is he's now got two new coaches in the two areas most needing improvement. That shows change. Buys him a few years, assuming we don't tank.

Last edited by aweissburg; 04-14-2010 at 12:25 PM.
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  (#32) Old
Mike Zillion
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04-14-2010, 12:24 PM

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Originally Posted by calbear77x View Post
Technically, it'd be a hypothesis, or possibly a conjecture. A theory is the term scientists use to describe their best current understanding, and generally speaking this understanding has withstood rigorous attack.

But yes, whether you're talking about Cal coaches or existence of supreme deities, if you make the assertion one way or the other, it is not up to me to prove something doesn't exist, but rather up to you to prove it does. I know that isn't how it always ends up working in the real world, but if you want to discern the truth, you gotta do it that way.
More like it is up to people to believe what they want to believe.
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  (#33) Old
sycasey sycasey is offline
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04-14-2010, 12:29 PM

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Originally Posted by DavidDempster View Post
Ray Ratto would write. Can you re-state with "ursine" in the sentence?
Also with a phrase written in some random foreign language for no reason.
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  (#34) Old
socaltownie socaltownie is offline
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Esp - 04-14-2010, 12:30 PM

stand corrected. Buried in a part of the FAQ is the section which indicates that this essentially works as a package deal. Not a PSL but a way of bundling your seat with an AD donation.

For seats on the 30 yrd line has anyone worked out the premium you are paying under the new program than the ducket you would have incurred under the old regime (season tix + BB donation to ensure priority?) Sorry, I know a booth.
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calbear77x calbear77x is offline
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04-14-2010, 12:44 PM

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Originally Posted by socaltownie View Post
stand corrected. Buried in a part of the FAQ is the section which indicates that this essentially works as a package deal. Not a PSL but a way of bundling your seat with an AD donation.

For seats on the 30 yrd line has anyone worked out the premium you are paying under the new program than the ducket you would have incurred under the old regime (season tix + BB donation to ensure priority?) Sorry, I know a booth.
To answer that question without too many facts getting in the way, you'd pay "substantially more" for ESP seats. However, if you think of this as a 40 year commitment (and Cal seems on the fence about whether they really want you to do that given their mixed messages), you realize that in about 15 years, as the price stays steady and everything else around you goes up due to inflation, it's possible that it'll look like a decent deal for the next 25 years. That's how I've always rationalized it to myself, but then I'll admit that I haven't really wanted to think too much about it. I just closed my eyes and did it.
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calbear77x calbear77x is offline
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04-14-2010, 12:51 PM

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Originally Posted by Mike Zillion View Post
More like it is up to people to believe what they want to believe.
True, but that's other people who believe hearsay and conjecture, not rational thinkers like ourselves, right MZ?
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maxer maxer is offline
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04-14-2010, 01:35 PM

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Originally Posted by Mike Zillion View Post
More like it is up to people to believe what they want to believe.
Of course it's up to people to believe what they want to believe. But don't present your interpretation as fact. That's dishonest.

Is this really not something that you understand?
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socaltownie socaltownie is offline
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04-14-2010, 02:23 PM

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Originally Posted by calbear77x View Post
To answer that question without too many facts getting in the way, you'd pay "substantially more" for ESP seats. However, if you think of this as a 40 year commitment (and Cal seems on the fence about whether they really want you to do that given their mixed messages), you realize that in about 15 years, as the price stays steady and everything else around you goes up due to inflation, it's possible that it'll look like a decent deal for the next 25 years. That's how I've always rationalized it to myself, but then I'll admit that I haven't really wanted to think too much about it. I just closed my eyes and did it.
OK. I took a look. As best I can see you are currently on the hook for about $1000 a seat for season tixs between the 30s on the west side. About $400 for the season ticket package and $600 BB donation (this is why our faculty member family never sat closer than the 15). Sections G/GG are $1200 a ticket.

Not sure where the lowest value ESP (40,000 up front or 30 years at $2741 annually gets you but give possible inflation/NPV it isn't a horribly bad deal. if they are right and the reduced supply means greater market value than it will be a good deal. If, however, the product on the field "stinks" then - ESPECIALLY IF YOU PAY ALL UP FRONT - you have something of limited/no value.

Speak from experience - I bought a PSL at Petco Park thinking that "Hey, AT&T sold out all the time - this has to be smart" only to find that NO ONE wanted to buy a Padres Club PSL. You couldn't Give them away given the transfer fee the Padres dinged you with.
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calbear77x calbear77x is offline
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04-14-2010, 02:30 PM

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Originally Posted by socaltownie View Post
OK. I took a look. As best I can see you are currently on the hook for about $1000 a seat for season tixs between the 30s on the west side. About $400 for the season ticket package and $600 BB donation (this is why our faculty member family never sat closer than the 15). Sections G/GG are $1200 a ticket.

Not sure where the lowest value ESP (40,000 up front or 30 years at $2741 annually gets you but give possible inflation/NPV it isn't a horribly bad deal. if they are right and the reduced supply means greater market value than it will be a good deal. If, however, the product on the field "stinks" then - ESPECIALLY IF YOU PAY ALL UP FRONT - you have something of limited/no value.

Speak from experience - I bought a PSL at Petco Park thinking that "Hey, AT&T sold out all the time - this has to be smart" only to find that NO ONE wanted to buy a Padres Club PSL. You couldn't Give them away given the transfer fee the Padres dinged you with.
Yeah, I won't lie to you. I did it because I love Cal in an irrational way, not because I thought it was a great investment. In my experience, the only tickets that are ever worth squat are USC, UCLA and sometimes Oregon. And even then, I'd never come close to selling tix and covering my costs. For what I pay, I should be getting a back massage from Sandy Barbour during TV timeouts. And even then, it'd only be BARELY worth it.
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socaltownie socaltownie is offline
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04-14-2010, 02:34 PM

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For what I pay, I should be getting a back massage from Sandy Barbour during TV timeouts. And even then, it'd only be BARELY worth it.
And ONE! For those that don't have an "A" sticker (or better yet, nobel prize winner parking spots) the parking privledges are also a nice bonus.
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cal97 cal97 is offline
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04-14-2010, 02:38 PM

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Yeah, I won't lie to you. I did it because I love Cal in an irrational way, not because I thought it was a great investment. In my experience, the only tickets that are ever worth squat are USC, UCLA and sometimes Oregon. And even then, I'd never come close to selling tix and covering my costs. For what I pay, I should be getting a back massage from Sandy Barbour during TV timeouts. And even then, it'd only be BARELY worth it.
It's not an investment. It's a donation and needs to be viewed as such. Maybe you save a few bucks 15 years from now but that's not why anyone did this. If you buy on the 30 year plan like I did, it's also not entirely true that your cost will never go up. The nominal fee won't increase but the proportion that's tax deductible will decrease over time because you can only deduct the amount you gave in excess of the market value of what you received. The market value of the tickets, parking, etc. will increase and lower your tax deduction. I suppose it could get cheaper too if marginal tax brackets increase either through increased income or the Obama Administration's war on anyone who makes over $250K.
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  (#42) Old
Mike Zillion
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04-14-2010, 04:25 PM

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Originally Posted by maxer View Post
Of course it's up to people to believe what they want to believe. But don't present your interpretation as fact. That's dishonest.

Is this really not something that you understand?
I can't help it if I'm more connected to the inner workings of the program than you are. It's up to you to believe me or not.
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  (#43) Old
maxer maxer is offline
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04-14-2010, 04:31 PM

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Originally Posted by Mike Zillion View Post
I can't help it if I'm more connected to the inner workings of the program than you are. It's up to you to believe me or not.
Man, you are super dense. For the last time, and then I give up:

I do not care if you are right. It is immaterial to me. I am simply saying, do not present your opinion as a fact unless it is ACTUALLY A FACT and you can back it up with OTHER FACTS.

If you can't do that, it's your opinion. If you take a couple publicly available facts, and form a version of events in your mind which COULD be true, that is also not a fact - it is a hypothesis.

Those are all things that this board is for. But don't call them facts.

If this is not something that you are able to understand, then I, and everyone else here, would be wise to disregard every single thing that you say.
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  (#44) Old
Mike Zillion
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04-14-2010, 04:40 PM

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Man, you are super dense. For the last time, and then I give up:

I do not care if you are right. It is immaterial to me. I am simply saying, do not present your opinion as a fact unless it is ACTUALLY A FACT and you can back it up with OTHER FACTS.

If you can't do that, it's your opinion. If you take a couple publicly available facts, and form a version of events in your mind which COULD be true, that is also not a fact - it is a hypothesis.

Those are all things that this board is for. But don't call them facts.

If this is not something that you are able to understand, then I, and everyone else here, would be wise to disregard every single thing that you say.
I present the truth. You either accept it or you don't
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  (#45) Old
68great 68great is offline
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04-14-2010, 05:17 PM

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Originally Posted by Mike Zillion View Post
Please provide citations that they weren't.

Thanks.
Well after the bowl game, JT said "Things are going to change" (or words to that effect).

Guess what. They did.
So it reasonable to assume that the changes that occurred are the changes JT had in mind.
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