I think we may see Tarczynski move back to his roots and swim 100 fly this year on the second day. He was better in it in Georgia and Shields, Cox, and Pebley are all potential finalists. In fly there are Shields and Austin Brown, who has been inconsistent, maybe Will Hamilton if he moves to a short schedule and Seth Stubblefield, who wasn't great in fly last year.
Concerning Arizona and USC, keep in mind that they use their midseason meet to qualify for NCAAs and were fully tapered. In fact, Friedemann was actually a bit slower than last year, and Smith got second at NCAAs last year, and he's not beating Shields so it's not like he's gaining any points in that event. Arizona lost too much from last year and their coach, Hansen, has yet to prove he can coach a championship team (he was mediocre at Wisconsin and they disappointed overall last year). However they are still definite favorites in the 200 medley relay, as Friedemann and Smith are both sprint specialists, plus Cordes, who negates their weaker freestyle leg.
Texas does have Israeli Olympian Imri Ganiel in breaststroke (hypocritically bringing in a foreign swimmer after a bad recruiting year
) who has been decent, but their best 200 swimmer (and IMer) Nick D'Innocenzo was kicked off the team, at least for the time being.