Previewing the San Diego State Game

Expect a sell out on Saturday night as San Diego State is bringing back their Football Legends as part of a parcel of promotions to get fans into the 35k capacity SnapDragon Stadium. The Cal contingent should be sizeable as well, perhaps as many as 10k, setting the stage for a more interesting game than it might appear.

(The above is not accurate based on our latest data - sounds like closer to 20k in attendance with 5k Cal fans best case)

SDSU is in its second year with Head Coach Sean Lewis.  Fresh off helping Deion Sanders revive the Colorado program as their OC and QB coach, Lewis has done a nice job recruiting from both the high school ranks as well as the transfer portal. This Aztec team returns ten starters on defense, including a potential All American and adds a former highly touted QB from Michigan.

After blowing out lowly FCS program Stony Brook, the Aztecs took the always perilous road trip to the Palouse to play a rebuilding Washington State team and they got their hat handed to them. The 36-13 loss was a blow to what was expected to be a much improved SDSU team in 2025.  A closer look at that game shows that perhaps it was not as bad a loss as it might have appeared. WSU took advantage of an overly aggressive Aztec defense to dink and dunk their way down the field (with some nice YAC) whilst the SDSU offense struggled to protect the Michigan transfer Jayden Denegal and he then scuffled with his accuracy.

Outside of egregiously bad pass protection, some less than ideal tackling and Denegal’s inconsistency, SDSU played solidly.

Offense:

Denegal is a big, strong armed and athletic QB who was a backup for JJ McCarthy during Michigan’s National Championship run.  He’s very reminiscent in style to Oregon State’s QB Maalik Murphy. He’s young, still developing and while he can make every throw in the book, there are questions about his vision, decision making and foremost, his accuracy.

He has two quality targets at WR in Jordan Napier and Texas A&M transfer Jacob Bostick.  Both have good length and size and bring some explosiveness and big play ability to the offense.  

SDSU’s RB, Lucky Sutton is likely their best offensive player.  The RS junior is a bigger back at 215lbs and brings a nice combination of shiftiness and power to the run game. He’s averaging nearly 100 yards a game and gained nearly 6 yards per carry vs WSU. SDSU boasts a rebuilt OL that is big and built for the run game.  They can open some holes. Their struggles are in their pass sets.  Both tackles are suspect in pass protection as is their left guard.  

Defense:

A lot of experience and a couple of really talented pieces.  Edge Tony White, who scorched Cal last year for 2.5 sacks on his way to 12.5 total, is the MWC Preseason Defensive Player of the Year and a potential All-American candidate. He has yet to notch a sack but was in the backfield constantly vs WSU who double teamed on almost every pass play.

Their DL group is one without any standouts. They rotate a lot of players and don’t have a ton of size. They rely more heavily on two good linebackers in Mister Williams who transferred in from Incarnate Word where he was a star and Tano Letuli who was 3^rd team All-MWC last year and is another plus pass rusher alongside White.

The entire secondary returns, including Chris Johnson, a senior who earned HM All-MWC in 2024 and is off to a good start in 2025. He’s a likely NFL player and their other two corners are solid as well. It’s their safety group that has struggled both in coverage and in tackling.  

Special Teams:

This will be among the very best STs unit that Cal faces in 2025. The PK is a first team MWC performer and their punter was an All-American at the FCS level in 2024. They block a lot of punts and will work hard to make something happen in their return game.

Key Considerations:

1.). Trap Game?  The Bears are coming off a big win, going on the road to a sold out stadium and facing a team that has had two weeks to prepare for them.  Further, they have their first ACC road game the following week.  A team with a lot of kids who Cal choose not to recruit. They played well in Berkeley last year and on paper, appear to be a more talented team than they were in 2024. The Bears will need to bring their A game or will find themselves in a dog fight.

2.) SDSU will look to use the Gof5 recipe for P4 upsets  It starts with the turnover battle. The Aztecs have yet to have a turnover. They are going to  bank on getting on the right side of the TO margin. Look for them to blitz JKS early and often, given the less than ideal success rate he had against the Minnesota blitz and his short passing accuracy issues.  Basically, they will dare him to replicate what WSU did with quick, highly accurate short passes that set up RBs and WRs to run after the catch. They will load the box to stop the run and hope that their pass rush can get home and the secondary can hold up on deep passes. They are going to count on an offense that springs just enough explosive plays to overcome three and outs and that they can get TDs in the red zone while holding the Bears to FGs when they get down close. Finally, they are hoping to win the STs battle with a block or a big return

3.) Cal should have a big advantage in shutting down the SDSU passing game and forcing them to be one dimensional on offense. The Aztecs gave up 2 sacks and around 16 total pressures on 32 pass attempts. That’s egregiously bad and given that WSU only got two pressures against North Texas last week, that has to be keeping the SDSU staff up at night.

4.) Can the Bears establish their run game?  Last year, Cal broke open the game in the 2^nd half on the ground. And given that SDSU will likely be blitzing often both run and pass blitzes, the Bears will likely have to be more stubborn and patient than they’ve shown thus far in 2025 in order to create some explosive plays on the ground.  

5.) Handling adversity.  Cal has gotten off to good starts in all three of its game thus far and only trailed briefly vs. Minnesota while they were at home.  There’s a reason the line is only -12.5 in this game.  There’s a belief that at home against a P4 opponent, SDSU can be at their absolute best and if that comes to pass, that may result in Cal trailing in the first half.  Thus far, Cal appears to have a different energy as it relates to its confidence and trust in itself but that may well be tested late on Saturday night.  

If this was a home game, I believe the Bears would be closer to a 3 TD favorite.  P4 teams have traditionally struggled to blow out Gof5 teams on the road and given the ACC opener follows coming off the win against the Golden Gophers is cause for some concern.  A lot will come down to how much the Aztecs have improved since their debacle in Pullman and whether they can get even decent OL and QB play.  If they can, this will be a tough game.  If not, look for Cal to blow open the game late, Bears 31-13.