What will the official attendance be?

I'm going with 52,117.

60K and too many red colored shirts.

B.A. Bearacus said:

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What will the official attendance be?

I'm going with 52,117.

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You think 20K USC fans are going to show up? That's a bit much, methinks.

Two data points:

1. 2015 attendance against SC (12pm start, Halloween): 52,060

2. Ole Miss: 37,125

I don't see how there could be a big shift from 2015 attendance.

8,454

Bright sun.
Soccer game.
Too cold.
Buh.
Too hot.
SC band only knows one song.

USC at California since 2001:

2015: 52,060 (83.34%)
2013: 49,199 (78.76%)
2011: 44,043 (97.87%)
2009: 71,799 (100.00%
2007: 72,516 (100.00%)
2005: 72,981 (100.55%)
2003: 51,208 (70.62%)
2001: 33,506 (44.66%)

I am going to say somewhere around the 2003/2015 numbers. So, I'll go with exactly 51,208.

Attendance estimate in the ESP seats with the new, single game, 20+ ticket purchase package option?

I'm afraid it may be a 50/50 split or worse between the 30's on the west side.

Even if it's only 50K, that's still 30-40x what USC pulls in for a basketball game.

There's is going to be a lot of cardinal at Memorial - more than you might think. The Trojans are on a roll - love to beat the hippies - and crave getting out of the dirty and crime infested confines of LA to savor the beauty of the Bay. Beware - they are terrible fans - even when they win! Big turnout.

i expect a pretty full house. SC will show up strong @ 15k, but it'll be a good place to be

I am guessing $55k

People now think Cal might be good. USC is hyped over beating Furd and Texas, and they think Cal is a lock.

Both sides are excited to see a win.

30k at kickoff, 55k at half. 35k by the 4th quarter after one team or the other goes up by two scores and fair weather fans start filing out.

Broken ticket scanners for the Ole Miss game, ridiculous.

Attendance will be limited by the fact that sections with high ticket availability (and there are many sections with >50% tickets unsold) are priced at $90 for this game. The cheapest cost of entry is $78 for end zone seats. They're going for less on Stubhub and it will be hard to move the inventory required to get even 50k for this game.

$ellout. Get your tickets now!

Older story but interesting:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.californiagoldenblogs.com/platform/amp/2010/7/19/1564707/memorial-stadium-attendance-when

It would be interesting to see ticket prices side by side with those historic attendance figures, I think they've greatly outpaced inflation, which accounts to some of the declines in attendance across the NCAA.

56K is my guess, it will look like a sellout, with about 1/5 USC fans.

This has to be one of the more hyped games in at least the last 5 years or so.

I'd hope there's at least 60k

Maximum attendance - 62,500.
SC will roll in with more than 15,000 nauseating fans and their nauseating band with their nauseating musical director.
It will be a sellout because: a. both teams are undefeated and they're curious of just how good we are; b. the Trojans love their Bay Area weekend be it Berkeley or Palo Alto; and, c. Most importantly, they're all jealous because they couldn't get in to Cal as undergrads and they sublimate their envy with football prowess.

LunchTime said:

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I am guessing $55k

People now think Cal might be good. USC is hyped over beating Furd and Texas, and they think Cal is a lock.

Both sides are excited to see a win.

30k at kickoff, 55k at half. 35k by the 4th quarter after one team or the other goes up by two scores and fair weather fans start filing out.

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"one team or the other" lol. You mean after SC starts curb-stomping us? I seriously doubt that IF we can pull off a win it would be a blowout.

CaliforniaEternal said:

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Attendance will be limited by the fact that sections with high ticket availability (and there are many sections with >50% tickets unsold) are priced at $90 for this game. The cheapest cost of entry is $78 for end zone seats. They're going for less on Stubhub and it will be hard to move the inventory required to get even 50k for this game.

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You know, that's just stupid. Wouldn't you think the ATO would take a look at their primary competition (Stubhub), and adjust their pricing accordingly. The stupid thing is that while some percentage of the fan base will just wait until next week to buy cheaper tickets on Stubhub, another percentage will decide it's too rich for their blood and just won't go! Wouldn't it make more sense to price the tickets at what's reasonable given the market, lock in the revenue right away, and maybe get a fuller stadium?

Bear8 said:

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Maximum attendance - 62,500.
SC will roll in with more than 15,000 nauseating fans and their nauseating band with their nauseating musical director.
It will be a sellout because: a. both teams are undefeated and they're curious of just how good we are; b. the Trojans love their Bay Area weekend be it Berkeley or Palo Alto; and, c. Most importantly, they're all jealous because they couldn't get in to Cal as undergrads and they sublimate their envy with football prowess.

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You forgot about the nauseating cheerleaders and their nauseating sweater puppetry.

Geez. You don't fight fair, do you?

You and I apparently have a different view of/threshold for "nauseating."

CaliforniaEternal said:

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Attendance will be limited by the fact that sections with high ticket availability (and there are many sections with >50% tickets unsold) are priced at $90 for this game. The cheapest cost of entry is $78 for end zone seats. They're going for less on Stubhub and it will be hard to move the inventory required to get even 50k for this game.

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I was shocked to log into our ATO site and see upper sideline 10 yd line seats going for $130.

I am looking for two but would rather take my chances on Stubhub!

One observation: Cal is not alone in pricing high. Seems like damn near every AD from coast-to-coast is erring in favor of pricing really high (and seeing how much they can extract out of "price-insensitive" I'll-pay-anything people) vs. pricing low and aiming for large crowds.

I heard on some podcast that there are multiple reasons why they lean hard in this direction, and that it'll likely take a few years of empty stadiums for them to change course. Which, given falling demand, we might well see. Even at some schools you wouldn't expect to see it.

pingpong2 said:

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B.A. Bearacus said:

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What will the official attendance be?

I'm going with 52,117.

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You think 20K USC fans are going to show up? That's a bit much, methinks.

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LOL...we'll be there. 15K+ just like every year.

bearister said:

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Bear8 said:

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Maximum attendance - 62,500.
SC will roll in with more than 15,000 nauseating fans and their nauseating band with their nauseating musical director.
It will be a sellout because: a. both teams are undefeated and they're curious of just how good we are; b. the Trojans love their Bay Area weekend be it Berkeley or Palo Alto; and, c. Most importantly, they're all jealous because they couldn't get in to Cal as undergrads and they sublimate their envy with football prowess.

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You forgot about the nauseating cheerleaders and their nauseating sweater puppetry.

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TDub said:

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bearister said:

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Bear8 said:

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Maximum attendance - 62,500.
SC will roll in with more than 15,000 nauseating fans and their nauseating band with their nauseating musical director.
It will be a sellout because: a. both teams are undefeated and they're curious of just how good we are; b. the Trojans love their Bay Area weekend be it Berkeley or Palo Alto; and, c. Most importantly, they're all jealous because they couldn't get in to Cal as undergrads and they sublimate their envy with football prowess.

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You forgot about the nauseating cheerleaders and their nauseating sweater puppetry.

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Cheerleaders are the only bearable thing from $Csucks.

48,000

Since there were hardly any Ole Miss fans and we've had 37k spectators, I would think we will be over 52,000 easy...

What does Frank think?

Jeff82 said:

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CaliforniaEternal said:

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Attendance will be limited by the fact that sections with high ticket availability (and there are many sections with >50% tickets unsold) are priced at $90 for this game. The cheapest cost of entry is $78 for end zone seats. They're going for less on Stubhub and it will be hard to move the inventory required to get even 50k for this game.

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You know, that's just stupid. Wouldn't you think the ATO would take a look at their primary competition (Stubhub), and adjust their pricing accordingly. The stupid thing is that while some percentage of the fan base will just wait until next week to buy cheaper tickets on Stubhub, another percentage will decide it's too rich for their blood and just won't go! Wouldn't it make more sense to price the tickets at what's reasonable given the market, lock in the revenue right away, and maybe get a fuller stadium?

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Yeah, $78 for endzone seats is way overpriced. A casual football fan can spend a little more money and go to a Raider game, or spend ~$20 and go to a 49er game. It's a shame because the team should be playing in front of more fans.

I'm going to wait until the morning of the game, and buy tickets off Stubhub. There's over 2K tickets available, so I think the prices will soften by then.

"You forgot about the nauseating cheerleaders and their nauseating sweater puppetry."

I do not think that word means what you think it means....

Beardog26 said:

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You and I apparently have a different view of/threshold for "nauseating."

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me to. And what is left after the sweaters come off is exactly nauseating.

Confidentially to this board I understand that less than 40K tickets have been sold so far and Wilcox is apparently really ticked about that. I would hope Wilcox realizes that attendance is down almost everywhere in college (and pro) football and even when Tedford came in there was a lag between improvement on the field and more butts in seats.

To WIF and Ursa; I know this is probably wishful thinking but I hope we are in negotiations right now to extend Wilcox and his coaches. They are doing a superb job and if we can keep them in place for some period of time it we will become a successful program again both on and off the field.

NVBear78 said:

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Confidentially to this board I understand that less than 40K tickets have been sold so far and Wilcox is apparently really ticked about that. I would hope Wilcox realizes that attendance is down almost everywhere in college (and pro) football and even when Tedford came in there was a lag between improvement on the field and more butts in seats.

To WIF and Ursa; I know this is probably wishful thinking but I hope we are in negotiations right now to extend Wilcox and his coaches. They are doing a superb job and if we can keep them in place for some period of time it we will become a successful program again both on and off the field.

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That's a bummer if there are really only 40k tickets sold as SC travel well. Anyone know how many season tickets we sold this year (excluding students)? Versus last year?

At least Wilcox was here in 2004 and 2005, when attendance was very good.

2005:
Sac St: 66k
Illinois: 58k
Arizona: 56k
OSU: 57k
WSU: 53k
USC: 73k

2004:
NMSU: 58k
UCLA: 70k
ASU: 53k
Oregon: 66k
Furd: 73k

But look at 2003, the breakthrough year.
2003:
SoMiss: 34k
Colo St: 34k
USC: 51k
OreSt: 39k
Az: 34k
UW: 39k

I'm guessing SC will be low due to the price, then WSU will be low due to the Friday night issues.

Az and Oregon St IMO should be wins, but are not appealing opponents, so the ATO should severely discount tickets to get the momentum going. Maybe even do a 'try it before you buy it' approach and let people who go to those two games apply $$ spend to a season ticket package for next year. We really need to get season ticket holder numbers back up, and give the team a better home edge to end this year.

And $78/90 is just really steep for bleacher seats at CMS. Would guess in 2005, those same seats where $40-50 tops. The bleachers are IMO even less comfortable after the remodel. Certainly not benefiting from the newness of the stadium like ESP and benchbacks (which account for only 9000 of the 63000 seats). They are absolutely not a premium product.