Did anybody else think this? That Wilcox violated the sacred rule of Football Coaching...never accept a penalty if it means negating a successful field goal? And was not suprised at all when karma immediately bit us in the ass?

There were people who thought that in the game thread, but I would take that penalty and go for the TD every time.

When they accepted the penalty, I turned to my wife and said "they say never to take points off the board, but I think it was the right decision to accept the penalty." After the turnover, she turned to me and said "I guess that points off the board rule is a rule for a reason." I still think it was the right decision.

I have seen statistics that show you should take points off the board in NFL games in most situations (35 yard line or closer), because kickers are better than ever and turnovers are fairly rare. I'm not sure what the stats say in contemporary college games.

I'd take penalty, move closer to six and take time off the clock late in the half. You are looking at 2 good outcomes and one lesser likely one of turning it over. Unfortunately we got the worst outcome.

Taking the first down made total sense. That it didn't work out doesn't mean it wasn't a good decision. Instead of a field goal we ended up with first down somewhere around the 15 where it's still a relatively easy field goal if we don't advance.

The chance for 7 outweighs the chance for losing 3. It was early enough in the game that you take the highest expected points. I don't know all the %s involved offhand (ie what our redzone td % really is with this team; what Anderson's odds are from 30 yards; what the chances of killer penalties or a turnover are) but the chances of ending up with no points would have to be more than double the chances of a td just to make this a coin flip of a decision.

Personally I kind of wanted to go for it 4th and 1 at the 2 a possession or two later.

I thought it was the right idea since I expected a high scoring game.

Couldn't disagree more. First and goal is better than 3 points. You have to trust your offense.

This happened when Joe Kapp was coaching against Texas A M. We fumbled the ball. But ended up getting a safety soon after.

Ron Rivera recovered the a m fumble. Dont do it.

http://www.pressreader.com/usa/san-francisco-chronicle/20160201/281509340216015

obviously, situation matters. Example: you're up by 6 with a minute to go; 4th and 1/2 yard at the 5. KICK THE DAMN BALL, because then you're up 2 scores and you've probably won. Same with being down 2 late in the game. In the Ole Miss situation, I go for the penalty every time for the reasons stated--even if you don't get the TD, it's a gimme FG. yes, there was the turnover, but you can't base your decision-making on the rare catastrophic event.

Reminded me of the A&M game in 1983. Kapp took the game winning FG points off the board In a tie game in the final two minutes. Gilbert fumbled and A&M recovered. Rivera saved the day by sacking the QB on a game winning safety.

UrsaMajor said:

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...yes, there was the turnover, but you can't base your decision-making on the rare catastrophic event.

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If you're Cal, you have to assume that rare catastrophic events are not rare at all.

boredom said:

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Taking the first down made total sense. That it didn't work out doesn't mean it wasn't a good decision. Instead of a field goal we ended up with first down somewhere around the 15 where it's still a relatively easy field goal if we don't advance.

The chance for 7 outweighs the chance for losing 3. It was early enough in the game that you take the highest expected points. I don't know all the %s involved offhand (ie what our redzone td % really is with this team; what Anderson's odds are from 30 yards; what the chances of killer penalties or a turnover are) but the chances of ending up with no points would have to be more than double the chances of a td just to make this a coin flip of a decision.

Personally I kind of wanted to go for it 4th and 1 at the 2 a possession or two later.

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I agree, but this reminded me of:

JSC 76 said:

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UrsaMajor said:

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...yes, there was the turnover, but you can't base your decision-making on the rare catastrophic event.

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If you're Cal, you have to assume that rare catastrophic events are not rare at all.

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Lol

that was a great movie...i thinkni watched it in college (on vhs)*...but the advice re doubling down is inaccurate--it totally depends on the count...if that was the first hand of the shoe (and assuming a single deck), then doubling down was a good idea...on the next hand, the first chair should bet a bit more than usual, since the count really favors him, then...


*for the younger cal fans, imagine a small but bulky plastic rectangular shaped box with the data stored magnetically on a tape spooled inside that had to be played on a specialized machine, which (in my case) was installed on the tv...

JSC 76 said:

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UrsaMajor said:

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...yes, there was the turnover, but you can't base your decision-making on the rare catastrophic event.

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If you're Cal, you have to assume that rare catastrophic events are not rare at all.

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crap, you're right...we are cal...

This is one of those cliches that is the complete opposite of what you should do from a mathematical perspective. Sure, the result wasn't favorable but the mathematics + psychological boost are well worth it.

Aggressive decisions are mathematically warranted is most cases.

The coaches made the 100% correct decision. Go for the TD. Don't assume your offense will screw it up.

01Bear said:

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JSC 76 said:

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UrsaMajor said:

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...yes, there was the turnover, but you can't base your decision-making on the rare catastrophic event.

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If you're Cal, you have to assume that rare catastrophic events are not rare at all.

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crap, you're right...we are cal...

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Then we should punt on first down to avoid the risk of a turnover. I say we go for the kill.

Taking the penalty was the right decision for a lot of reasons. The play calling and execution after that decision... not very good, to say the least.

In theory, taking the yards and extra time made sense, since our kicker is reliable from short distance. In practice, it looked like a clown show. I hope the team learned something from that series, it was painful to watch.

Uthaithani said:

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Taking the penalty was the right decision for a lot of reasons. The play calling and execution after that decision... not very good, to say the least.

In theory, taking the yards and extra time made sense, since our kicker is reliable from short distance. In practice, it looked like a clown show. I hope the team learned something from that series, it was painful to watch.

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We will have bumps like that with a new QB without a lot of experience. I will roll the dice with these coaches and this team, including our starting QB, and take the downs with the ups, but I want our coaches to coach intelligently with a killer instinct and with faith in their players.

JSC 76 said:

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Did anybody else think this? That Wilcox violated the sacred rule of Football Coaching...never accept a penalty if it means negating a successful field goal? And was not suprised at all when karma immediately bit us in the ass?

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The 'never take points off the board' adage is ridiculous.

If the FG were actually more valuable then a first down, why would a team even try for a first down in the first place?

If the penalty gives you a first down, you take it every time, unless the clock is a major factor.

If a coach choses to leave the points on the board in the same situation Cal was in, it would be one of the most spineless decisions in football history.

GMP said:

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boredom said:

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Taking the first down made total sense. That it didn't work out doesn't mean it wasn't a good decision. Instead of a field goal we ended up with first down somewhere around the 15 where it's still a relatively easy field goal if we don't advance.

The chance for 7 outweighs the chance for losing 3. It was early enough in the game that you take the highest expected points. I don't know all the %s involved offhand (ie what our redzone td % really is with this team; what Anderson's odds are from 30 yards; what the chances of killer penalties or a turnover are) but the chances of ending up with no points would have to be more than double the chances of a td just to make this a coin flip of a decision.

Personally I kind of wanted to go for it 4th and 1 at the 2 a possession or two later.

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I agree, but this reminded me of:

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Speaking of Swingers, I wonder if this would be a conversation on our board if we went to the Rose Bowl. Nah...I'll risk missing the pain of futility.

Rob: Sometimes it still hurts. You know how it is, man. It's like, you wake up every day and it hurts a little bit less, and then you wake up one day and it doesn't hurt at all. And the funny thing is, is that, this is kinda wierd, but it's like, it's like you almost miss that pain.
Mike: You miss the pain?
Rob: Yeah, for the same reason that you missed her... because you lived with it for so long.

BearDevil said:

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Reminded me of the A&M game in 1983. Kapp took the game winning FG points off the board In a tie game in the final two minutes. Gilbert fumbled and A&M recovered. Rivera saved the day by sacking the QB on a game winning safety.

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Not the QB, but the RB tackled in the end zone for a safety. And A&M had the ball at the 4 yard line when the ball was snapped.

For an interesting video package from the game, watch

Unfortunately, the video is edited so you can't see everything, but you can see that J Torchio, the holder on the kick, is the lone Cal guy who stayed out on the field. You can see him talking to the refs, and at some point apparently trying to get clarification from the sidelines about whether to take the penalty. My impression from watching it live at the time was that Torchio tried to get Kapp's attention for confirmation, but never got Kapp's attention and made the decision on his own to accept the penalty and take points off the board. But I could have been wrong.

If I was right, Kapp couldn't exactly come out with the truth afterwards, it would be admitting his own inattention to what was going on and throw J under the bus. Better to just act like it was his choice. And J couldn't tell the truth at the time, it would be revealing his own coach's inexcusable inattention. I wonder what J would say 34 years later.

my comment, like that of jsc76, was meant with tongue firmly in-cheek...unfortunately, i seem unable to insert smiley faces in the body of my comments...

for the record, i absolutely agreed with the decision to take the penalty...

i also wanted cal to go for the first down/touchdown on 4th and 1 from the 3 yard line (or was it the 2 yard line)...

both these desires were based on the idea that we needed to put up touchdowns against the dykesian ole miss team...while i'm ecstatic that our defense held ole miss scoreless for essentially the last 43 minutes of the game, at the time, i honestly believed that ole miss was going to come out guns-a-blazing, so we needed to put up seven points instead of settling for three...