Since it is rainy, cold and I am taking some much needed downtime, I engaged in one of my favorite time killing activities---Cal math.
In this case, I wanted to find out Cal's chances of getting to a bowl even if they lose 7 games.
This little exercise includes some major assumptions that I was not able to lessen due to my own lack of knowledge on the matter. It assumes primarily that Cal would be the most attractive 7 loss team to the bowl selection committee, and it assumes secondarily that no other 7 loss team would have the combined strength of schedule and APR standing to equal Cal.
But, even if Cal were only in the top 3 or 4 of the 7 loss teams, there is still a reasonable chance that Cal could get in, but they would need more help. Of course this also assumes that Cal doesn't just kick some furd *ss this Saturday or wipe the smirk off Mora's face in LA the following Friday. Either of those would be far preferable to the scenarios to follow.
So there are currently, and amazingly, still 103 teams (not including Cal) still eligible via W/L record (assuming nobody is on probation and ineligible because of sanctions). Of those 103, 78 will get a bowl invite. That is right, there are 78 bowl slots, also amazing. Of those 103, 21 are on the brink of becoming ineligible (they have 6 losses). Some of those teams play each other, meaning that at the very least, 4 more teams will be eliminated by seasons end. That leaves 99. Of those teams here is a list of teams that, in my opinion, are unlikely to win another game.
But here is a list of teams that will likely not win 6 games because of strength of future opponents:
OK let's look at the 5 loss teams and see if any of them might likely lose out or at least get to 7 losses.
Here is my list:
...except there is this also. There are some "50-50" games that could swing in favor of Cal in this scenario. And 2 of them are tomorrow night. We need UNLV to lose to New Mexico and we need W. Kentucky to lose to Middle Tennessee St. That would help a lot.
Ha!
Didn't those games and conferences mattered did ya?
In any case, GO BEARS!
In this case, I wanted to find out Cal's chances of getting to a bowl even if they lose 7 games.
This little exercise includes some major assumptions that I was not able to lessen due to my own lack of knowledge on the matter. It assumes primarily that Cal would be the most attractive 7 loss team to the bowl selection committee, and it assumes secondarily that no other 7 loss team would have the combined strength of schedule and APR standing to equal Cal.
But, even if Cal were only in the top 3 or 4 of the 7 loss teams, there is still a reasonable chance that Cal could get in, but they would need more help. Of course this also assumes that Cal doesn't just kick some furd *ss this Saturday or wipe the smirk off Mora's face in LA the following Friday. Either of those would be far preferable to the scenarios to follow.
So there are currently, and amazingly, still 103 teams (not including Cal) still eligible via W/L record (assuming nobody is on probation and ineligible because of sanctions). Of those 103, 78 will get a bowl invite. That is right, there are 78 bowl slots, also amazing. Of those 103, 21 are on the brink of becoming ineligible (they have 6 losses). Some of those teams play each other, meaning that at the very least, 4 more teams will be eliminated by seasons end. That leaves 99. Of those teams here is a list of teams that, in my opinion, are unlikely to win another game.
- Tulane
- Maryland
- Nebraska
- Pittsburgh
But here is a list of teams that will likely not win 6 games because of strength of future opponents:
- Rutgers
- Purdue
- Buffalo
- Colorado (could beat Utah but then Utah would replace Colorado on the list)
- Idaho
- Florida St. (same as the Utah/Colorado scenario only involving Florida)
- Syracuse
- Duke
- Air Force
- Tennesse
- Arkansas
OK let's look at the 5 loss teams and see if any of them might likely lose out or at least get to 7 losses.
Here is my list:
- Minnesota
- Louisiana-Lafayette
- Louisiana-Monroe
- New Mexico St.
- Texas Tech
- Missouri
...except there is this also. There are some "50-50" games that could swing in favor of Cal in this scenario. And 2 of them are tomorrow night. We need UNLV to lose to New Mexico and we need W. Kentucky to lose to Middle Tennessee St. That would help a lot.
Ha!
Didn't those games and conferences mattered did ya?
In any case, GO BEARS!