Cal Bowl Probability Math and Logic

4,240 Views | 11 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by heartofthebear
heartofthebear
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Since it is rainy, cold and I am taking some much needed downtime, I engaged in one of my favorite time killing activities---Cal math.

In this case, I wanted to find out Cal's chances of getting to a bowl even if they lose 7 games.
This little exercise includes some major assumptions that I was not able to lessen due to my own lack of knowledge on the matter. It assumes primarily that Cal would be the most attractive 7 loss team to the bowl selection committee, and it assumes secondarily that no other 7 loss team would have the combined strength of schedule and APR standing to equal Cal.

But, even if Cal were only in the top 3 or 4 of the 7 loss teams, there is still a reasonable chance that Cal could get in, but they would need more help. Of course this also assumes that Cal doesn't just kick some furd *ss this Saturday or wipe the smirk off Mora's face in LA the following Friday. Either of those would be far preferable to the scenarios to follow.

So there are currently, and amazingly, still 103 teams (not including Cal) still eligible via W/L record (assuming nobody is on probation and ineligible because of sanctions). Of those 103, 78 will get a bowl invite. That is right, there are 78 bowl slots, also amazing. Of those 103, 21 are on the brink of becoming ineligible (they have 6 losses). Some of those teams play each other, meaning that at the very least, 4 more teams will be eliminated by seasons end. That leaves 99. Of those teams here is a list of teams that, in my opinion, are unlikely to win another game.
  • Tulane
  • Maryland
  • Nebraska
  • Pittsburgh
Ok that now leaves 95, still along way from the 77 needed to give Cal a shot at slot number 78.
But here is a list of teams that will likely not win 6 games because of strength of future opponents:
  • Rutgers
  • Purdue
  • Buffalo
  • Colorado (could beat Utah but then Utah would replace Colorado on the list)
  • Idaho
  • Florida St. (same as the Utah/Colorado scenario only involving Florida)
  • Syracuse
  • Duke
  • Air Force
  • Tennesse
  • Arkansas
So now we are down to a much more manageable 84 but we are still not there. Hmm. What to do...
OK let's look at the 5 loss teams and see if any of them might likely lose out or at least get to 7 losses.
Here is my list:
  • Minnesota
  • Louisiana-Lafayette
  • Louisiana-Monroe
  • New Mexico St.
  • Texas Tech
  • Missouri
Now you may argue with some of these but the number is likely to stay the same if they win because the teams they defeat will likely replace them on the list. So we are now down to an agonizingly close 78 and out of options. Oh well...


...except there is this also. There are some "50-50" games that could swing in favor of Cal in this scenario. And 2 of them are tomorrow night. We need UNLV to lose to New Mexico and we need W. Kentucky to lose to Middle Tennessee St. That would help a lot.
Ha!
Didn't those games and conferences mattered did ya?

In any case, GO BEARS!
NeverOddOrEven
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Aren't there 80 slots?
6956bear
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heartofthebear said:

Since it is rainy, cold and I am taking some much needed downtime, I engaged in one of my favorite time killing activities---Cal math.

In this case, I wanted to find out Cal's chances of getting to a bowl even if they lose 7 games.
This little exercise includes some major assumptions that I was not able to lessen due to my own lack of knowledge on the matter. It assumes primarily that Cal would be the most attractive 7 loss team to the bowl selection committee, and it assumes secondarily that no other 7 loss team would have the combined strength of schedule and APR standing to equal Cal.

But, even if Cal were only in the top 3 or 4 of the 7 loss teams, there is still a reasonable chance that Cal could get in, but they would need more help. Of course this also assumes that Cal doesn't just kick some furd *ss this Saturday or wipe the smirk off Mora's face in LA the following Friday. Either of those would be far preferable to the scenarios to follow.

So there are currently, and amazingly, still 103 teams (not including Cal) still eligible via W/L record (assuming nobody is on probation and ineligible because of sanctions). Of those 103, 78 will get a bowl invite. That is right, there are 78 bowl slots, also amazing. Of those 103, 21 are on the brink of becoming ineligible (they have 6 losses). Some of those teams play each other, meaning that at the very least, 4 more teams will be eliminated by seasons end. That leaves 99. Of those teams here is a list of teams that, in my opinion, are unlikely to win another game.
  • Tulane
  • Maryland
  • Nebraska
  • Pittsburgh
Ok that now leaves 95, still along way from the 77 needed to give Cal a shot at slot number 78.
But here is a list of teams that will likely not win 6 games because of strength of future opponents:
  • Rutgers
  • Purdue
  • Buffalo
  • Colorado (could beat Utah but then Utah would replace Colorado on the list)
  • Idaho
  • Florida St. (same as the Utah/Colorado scenario only involving Florida)
  • Syracuse
  • Duke
  • Air Force
  • Tennesse
  • Arkansas
So now we are down to a much more manageable 84 but we are still not there. Hmm. What to do...
OK let's look at the 5 loss teams and see if any of them might likely lose out or at least get to 7 losses.
Here is my list:
  • Minnesota
  • Louisiana-Lafayette
  • Louisiana-Monroe
  • New Mexico St.
  • Texas Tech
  • Missouri
Now you may argue with some of these but the number is likely to stay the same if they win because the teams they defeat will likely replace them on the list. So we are now down to an agonizingly close 78 and out of options. Oh well...


...except there is this also. There are some "50-50" games that could swing in favor of Cal in this scenario. And 2 of them are tomorrow night. We need UNLV to lose to New Mexico and we need W. Kentucky to lose to Middle Tennessee St. That would help a lot.
Ha!
Didn't those games and conferences mattered did ya?

In any case, GO BEARS!
Utah, Minnesota, Air Force and Duke all have superior APR numbers than do the Bears. Cal will almost certainly have to get to 6 to go bowling.
heartofthebear
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NeverOddOrEven said:

Aren't there 80 slots?
I counted 39 bowl games + a championship game involving 2 of the original 78 playing a second game.
heartofthebear
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6956bear said:

heartofthebear said:

Since it is rainy, cold and I am taking some much needed downtime, I engaged in one of my favorite time killing activities---Cal math.

In this case, I wanted to find out Cal's chances of getting to a bowl even if they lose 7 games.
This little exercise includes some major assumptions that I was not able to lessen due to my own lack of knowledge on the matter. It assumes primarily that Cal would be the most attractive 7 loss team to the bowl selection committee, and it assumes secondarily that no other 7 loss team would have the combined strength of schedule and APR standing to equal Cal.

But, even if Cal were only in the top 3 or 4 of the 7 loss teams, there is still a reasonable chance that Cal could get in, but they would need more help. Of course this also assumes that Cal doesn't just kick some furd *ss this Saturday or wipe the smirk off Mora's face in LA the following Friday. Either of those would be far preferable to the scenarios to follow.

So there are currently, and amazingly, still 103 teams (not including Cal) still eligible via W/L record (assuming nobody is on probation and ineligible because of sanctions). Of those 103, 78 will get a bowl invite. That is right, there are 78 bowl slots, also amazing. Of those 103, 21 are on the brink of becoming ineligible (they have 6 losses). Some of those teams play each other, meaning that at the very least, 4 more teams will be eliminated by seasons end. That leaves 99. Of those teams here is a list of teams that, in my opinion, are unlikely to win another game.
  • Tulane
  • Maryland
  • Nebraska
  • Pittsburgh
Ok that now leaves 95, still along way from the 77 needed to give Cal a shot at slot number 78.
But here is a list of teams that will likely not win 6 games because of strength of future opponents:
  • Rutgers
  • Purdue
  • Buffalo
  • Colorado (could beat Utah but then Utah would replace Colorado on the list)
  • Idaho
  • Florida St. (same as the Utah/Colorado scenario only involving Florida)
  • Syracuse
  • Duke
  • Air Force
  • Tennesse
  • Arkansas
So now we are down to a much more manageable 84 but we are still not there. Hmm. What to do...
OK let's look at the 5 loss teams and see if any of them might likely lose out or at least get to 7 losses.
Here is my list:
  • Minnesota
  • Louisiana-Lafayette
  • Louisiana-Monroe
  • New Mexico St.
  • Texas Tech
  • Missouri
Now you may argue with some of these but the number is likely to stay the same if they win because the teams they defeat will likely replace them on the list. So we are now down to an agonizingly close 78 and out of options. Oh well...


...except there is this also. There are some "50-50" games that could swing in favor of Cal in this scenario. And 2 of them are tomorrow night. We need UNLV to lose to New Mexico and we need W. Kentucky to lose to Middle Tennessee St. That would help a lot.
Ha!
Didn't those games and conferences mattered did ya?

In any case, GO BEARS!
Utah, Minnesota, Air Force and Duke all have superior APR numbers than do the Bears. Cal will almost certainly have to get to 6 to go bowling.
First of all Cal would not be competing with Utah in the above scenario. Second, if strength of schedule is a factor, then Cal would trump Air Force. Thirdly, there are more games similar to the games mentioned on Friday that could increase the chances of more teams ending the season with 7 or more losses. It is certainly possible and may even be likely that there will be at least 4 slots involving teams with only 5 wins. But I agree that the chances are probably less than 50%.

Anyway thanks for that information. I did not know that.
6956bear
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heartofthebear said:

6956bear said:

heartofthebear said:

Since it is rainy, cold and I am taking some much needed downtime, I engaged in one of my favorite time killing activities---Cal math.

In this case, I wanted to find out Cal's chances of getting to a bowl even if they lose 7 games.
This little exercise includes some major assumptions that I was not able to lessen due to my own lack of knowledge on the matter. It assumes primarily that Cal would be the most attractive 7 loss team to the bowl selection committee, and it assumes secondarily that no other 7 loss team would have the combined strength of schedule and APR standing to equal Cal.

But, even if Cal were only in the top 3 or 4 of the 7 loss teams, there is still a reasonable chance that Cal could get in, but they would need more help. Of course this also assumes that Cal doesn't just kick some furd *ss this Saturday or wipe the smirk off Mora's face in LA the following Friday. Either of those would be far preferable to the scenarios to follow.

So there are currently, and amazingly, still 103 teams (not including Cal) still eligible via W/L record (assuming nobody is on probation and ineligible because of sanctions). Of those 103, 78 will get a bowl invite. That is right, there are 78 bowl slots, also amazing. Of those 103, 21 are on the brink of becoming ineligible (they have 6 losses). Some of those teams play each other, meaning that at the very least, 4 more teams will be eliminated by seasons end. That leaves 99. Of those teams here is a list of teams that, in my opinion, are unlikely to win another game.
  • Tulane
  • Maryland
  • Nebraska
  • Pittsburgh
Ok that now leaves 95, still along way from the 77 needed to give Cal a shot at slot number 78.
But here is a list of teams that will likely not win 6 games because of strength of future opponents:
  • Rutgers
  • Purdue
  • Buffalo
  • Colorado (could beat Utah but then Utah would replace Colorado on the list)
  • Idaho
  • Florida St. (same as the Utah/Colorado scenario only involving Florida)
  • Syracuse
  • Duke
  • Air Force
  • Tennesse
  • Arkansas
So now we are down to a much more manageable 84 but we are still not there. Hmm. What to do...
OK let's look at the 5 loss teams and see if any of them might likely lose out or at least get to 7 losses.
Here is my list:
  • Minnesota
  • Louisiana-Lafayette
  • Louisiana-Monroe
  • New Mexico St.
  • Texas Tech
  • Missouri
Now you may argue with some of these but the number is likely to stay the same if they win because the teams they defeat will likely replace them on the list. So we are now down to an agonizingly close 78 and out of options. Oh well...


...except there is this also. There are some "50-50" games that could swing in favor of Cal in this scenario. And 2 of them are tomorrow night. We need UNLV to lose to New Mexico and we need W. Kentucky to lose to Middle Tennessee St. That would help a lot.
Ha!
Didn't those games and conferences mattered did ya?

In any case, GO BEARS!
Utah, Minnesota, Air Force and Duke all have superior APR numbers than do the Bears. Cal will almost certainly have to get to 6 to go bowling.
First of all Cal would not be competing with Utah in the above scenario. Second, if strength of schedule is a factor, then Cal would trump Air Force. Thirdly, there are more games similar to the games mentioned on Friday that could increase the chances of more teams ending the season with 7 or more losses. It is certainly possible and may even be likely that there will be at least 4 slots involving teams with only 5 wins. But I agree that the chances are probably less than 50%.

Anyway thanks for that information. I did not know that.
Should UW and Colorado beat Utah then they could be competing against Utah. Better to have Utah just beat Colorado. I am not 100% certain but I do not believe strength of schedule plays a role.
NeverOddOrEven
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heartofthebear said:

NeverOddOrEven said:

Aren't there 80 slots?
I counted 39 bowl games + a championship game involving 2 of the original 78 playing a second game.


41 bowls, including the championship

http://es.pn/2ptqXBH
oskidunker
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Unlv lost 35-38
Go Bears!
6956bear
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heartofthebear said:

Since it is rainy, cold and I am taking some much needed downtime, I engaged in one of my favorite time killing activities---Cal math.

In this case, I wanted to find out Cal's chances of getting to a bowl even if they lose 7 games.
This little exercise includes some major assumptions that I was not able to lessen due to my own lack of knowledge on the matter. It assumes primarily that Cal would be the most attractive 7 loss team to the bowl selection committee, and it assumes secondarily that no other 7 loss team would have the combined strength of schedule and APR standing to equal Cal.

But, even if Cal were only in the top 3 or 4 of the 7 loss teams, there is still a reasonable chance that Cal could get in, but they would need more help. Of course this also assumes that Cal doesn't just kick some furd *ss this Saturday or wipe the smirk off Mora's face in LA the following Friday. Either of those would be far preferable to the scenarios to follow.

So there are currently, and amazingly, still 103 teams (not including Cal) still eligible via W/L record (assuming nobody is on probation and ineligible because of sanctions). Of those 103, 78 will get a bowl invite. That is right, there are 78 bowl slots, also amazing. Of those 103, 21 are on the brink of becoming ineligible (they have 6 losses). Some of those teams play each other, meaning that at the very least, 4 more teams will be eliminated by seasons end. That leaves 99. Of those teams here is a list of teams that, in my opinion, are unlikely to win another game.
  • Tulane
  • Maryland
  • Nebraska
  • Pittsburgh
Ok that now leaves 95, still along way from the 77 needed to give Cal a shot at slot number 78.
But here is a list of teams that will likely not win 6 games because of strength of future opponents:
  • Rutgers
  • Purdue
  • Buffalo
  • Colorado (could beat Utah but then Utah would replace Colorado on the list)
  • Idaho
  • Florida St. (same as the Utah/Colorado scenario only involving Florida)
  • Syracuse
  • Duke
  • Air Force
  • Tennesse
  • Arkansas
So now we are down to a much more manageable 84 but we are still not there. Hmm. What to do...
OK let's look at the 5 loss teams and see if any of them might likely lose out or at least get to 7 losses.
Here is my list:
  • Minnesota
  • Louisiana-Lafayette
  • Louisiana-Monroe
  • New Mexico St.
  • Texas Tech
  • Missouri
Now you may argue with some of these but the number is likely to stay the same if they win because the teams they defeat will likely replace them on the list. So we are now down to an agonizingly close 78 and out of options. Oh well...


...except there is this also. There are some "50-50" games that could swing in favor of Cal in this scenario. And 2 of them are tomorrow night. We need UNLV to lose to New Mexico and we need W. Kentucky to lose to Middle Tennessee St. That would help a lot.
Ha!
Didn't those games and conferences mattered did ya?

In any case, GO BEAR
UNLV and W Kentucky both won.
Econ141
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It will be so very cal of us to have a tremendous apr but when it cannfinally help us get ina bowl game, there aren't any slots left.
6956bear
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fat_slice said:

It will be so very cal of us to have a tremendous apr but when it cannfinally help us get ina bowl game, there aren't any slots left.
There are 6 teams at 5 wins right now with better APR than Cal. Almost impossible for the Bears to get a bid unless they beat UCLA.
hotlanta
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Too bad the APR can't be weighted. You know, like Cal is the #1 public university in the world kind of weighted.
heartofthebear
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Is it strictly just APR weighed or can strength of schedule play a part as well?
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