Updated Bowl Math

2,055 Views | 6 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by philly1121
71Bear
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The bowls will take 78 teams this year.

70 are already bowl eligible.

19 teams are one win from bowl eligibility.

8 of those teams play another team one win from bowl eligibility. Therefore, 4 are guaranteed to be bowl eligible by the end of the game.

That gives us 74 teams that are bowl eligible.

Of the other 11 teams that are one win from bowl eligibility, one has been self- disqualified (Mississippi).

Of the other 10, 2 are playing teams with a worse record and 8 are playing teams with a better record.

Of the 10, assuming that both of the teams that are playing opponents with a worse record win and 25% of the teams playing opponents with a better record win, the 78 bowl slots would be filled with teams that have won a minmum of 6 games.

In other words, Cal should not plan on sliding into a bowl based upon APR scores.
Bear19
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Call me crazy, but I'm pretty sure five wins & APR scores has not "the plan" for Wilxox & staff.
71Bear
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Bear19 said:

Call me crazy, but I'm pretty sure five wins & APR scores has not "the plan" for Wilxox & staff.
Agree.....
Econ141
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I get it - but I'm a cal fan and a football fan. Just want to see another game. It's a loooooooooong offseason without football so I want the cal games to stretch out as much as possible.
ColoradoBear
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71Bear said:



Of the other 10, 2 are playing teams with a worse record and 8 are playing teams with a better record.

So with 10 teams and 4 slots, there's a decent chance that not all 6 win teams will get into a bowl.

Do you happen to have a tally of how many of those 10 teams are P5 vs G5?
71Bear
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ColoradoBear said:

71Bear said:



Of the other 10, 2 are playing teams with a worse record and 8 are playing teams with a better record.

So with 10 teams and 4 slots, there's a decent chance that not all 6 win teams will get into a bowl.

Do you happen to have a tally of how many of those 10 teams are P5 vs G5?
Correct. This year could be a year in which a bowl eligible team is left out. I doubt that would happen to a P5 school but the Sun Belt had better hope that 78 or fewer have six wins.

In answer to your question, nine of the ten games are conference matchups and one is a non-conference game between two P5 schools (Ga. v. Ga Tech).

Here are the other nine (the first team listed has 5 wins):

UNLV v. Nevada
Temple v. Tulsa
Tulane v. SMU
Duke v. Wake Forest
Texas Tech v. Texas
Buffalo v. Ohio
Minnesota v. Wisconsin
La. Tech v. UT San Antonio
Louisiana v. Ga. Southern

Note: All of this assumes every team eligible would say yes if invited to a bowl game.
KoreAmBear
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Bumping this thread. Thanks 71 Bear.

So highly unlikely.

What a nice week it's been since the Furd game for Cal football and men's basketball.
philly1121
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fat_slice said:

I get it - but I'm a cal fan and a football fan. Just want to see another game. It's a loooooooooong offseason without football so I want the cal games to stretch out as much as possible.


Ya know they got that pro league for this football stuff. Stretches to February I think.
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