Haven't gone through it all but pretty detailed:

https://www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/college-football/2018/5/18/17324238/california-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster

My rose-colored glasses would disagree with the 5-7 or 6-6 outlooks, loaded Pac-12 North notwithstanding.

Some of those win probabilities seem pretty low.

I know UNC returns quite a lot of production, but they were pretty bad last year and it's a home game for Cal on the west coast. The again early odds have Cal favored by four points. So basically this would be a toss-up on a neutral field.

UCLA is projected too high in the S&P+ Rk for my liking. They lost a lot of production in the passing game in Josh Rosen, Jordan Lasley and Darren Andrews. They also have to replace three starters on the o-line if I'm not mistaken. Their rushing attack was average and lacked explosiveness. I don't think Kelly will be able to turn them around in one season.

WSU seems projected too high as well. They lost their stud defensive coordinator and a lot of guys to graduation on defense. All the receivers seem to be back, but who will be throwing the ball? Would have loved to play them early before they get their passing game in sync.

Good read overall. Laird's 48 percent success rate is interesting. I wonder how that's determined and how it compares to other backs.

That was objectively accurate.

We will be favorites in only 3 games. Things need to fall our way and mostly around the D line.

But, it sure would be cool to start 3-0 and then ride a super effort on both sides of the ball to beat Oregon at home.

Let's hope the SB rankings are pure nonsense compared to what the Bear hope-filled Sunshine Pumpers are telling us.

Cal is ranked #65 in their Top 130 ranking predictions.

Here are the comparable rankings for Cal's opponents:

UNC #51 [up for grabs]
BYU #76 [Cal should win]
Idaho State >#130 [Cal will win]
Oregon #23 [Cal will lose]
Arizona #33 [Cal will probably lose]
ucla #39 [Cal might lose]
Oregon State #110 [Cal will win]
Washington #4 [Cal will get thumped]
Washington State #41 [Cal will most likely lose]
usc #15 [Cal will get rolled]
stanfurd #20 [Cal fans bend over for you-know-what]
Colorado #89 [Cal ends the season with feel-good win]

From the above Cal looks like a 4-8 team. I believe however that the ranking for UNC is way too high, but
in any case, It looks like Cal's first game will answer the accuracy of the SB Nation rankings.

Okay, tell me which conference situation would you rather see for Cal? ...be truthful now.......

Pac-12 North

Washington #4
stanfurd #20
Oregon #23
Washingto State #41
Cal #65
Oregon State #110

OR...

MWC -West

Fresno State #44
San Diego State #55
Cal #65
Nevada #101
UNLV #105
Ha'hawai'i #122
San Jose' State #129

PtownBear1 said:

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Good read overall. Laird's 48 percent success rate is interesting. I wonder how that's determined and how it compares to other backs.

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Calling Watson the #2 and Laird the #1, while factually true at this point, misses a good story about a kid that came to Cal as a walk-on and should be talked about more in these preview articles.

PtownBear1 said:

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Good read overall. Laird's 48 percent success rate is interesting. I wonder how that's determined and how it compares to other backs.

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Success rate tells you how often a runningback gained at least a fraction of the necessary yardage to call the play successfull. According to Bill Connelly, you need to gain at least 50 percent of the necessary yardage on first down to call a play successful. On second down it's at least 70 percent. And it's at least 100% on third and fourth down. On 1st & 10 a running back would have to gain at least five yards to call the play successful.

San Diego State's Rashaad Penny had a success rate of 44.6% for example. Josh Adams' success rate was 44.2% last season. He led Notre Dame in rushing last season with 1430 yards.

5 wins, outside chance at 6 - seems pretty on the mark as far as predictions go. Gonna be tough for this team to do much, given the talent disparity.

Uthaithani said:

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5 wins, outside chance at 6 - seems pretty on the mark as far as predictions go. Gonna be tough for this team to do much, given the talent disparity.

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Respectfully disagree. Our offensive line will be improved, and along with that, the offense as well. The defence looks to be improved as well.

Add to that, this is the 2nd year for the same coaches, offence & defense schemes, which is very important at the college level. I'm seeing 7 wins, outside chance at 8.

Uthaithani said:

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5 wins, outside chance at 6 - seems pretty on the mark as far as predictions go. Gonna be tough for this team to do much, given the talent disparity.

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I don't agree. JW and his crew did a great job of getting maximum production from a bunch of outmanned 2nd and 3D stringers after many of the starters were injured yet coming within 7 points of an 8-4 season when everyone had expected a 3-win season.

I am looking forward to seeing what JW and his crew can do with a better group of players this year. I see six wins as the low end of expected wins not the high end. (But I temper my expectations knowing that I always see things through my blue and gold glasses.).

XXXBEAR said:

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That was objectively accurate.

We will be favorites in only 3 games. Things need to fall our way and mostly around the D line.

But, it sure would be cool to start 3-0 and then ride a super effort on both sides of the ball to beat Oregon at home.

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We'll likely be favored in 5 games (first 3, at OSU, vs. Colorado).