Cal88 said:

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As well, them winning on penalties is not a fluke, at that stage all of the pressure was on the heavy favorite, this is something that is well understood. In fact the home crowd reacted at the end of regulation as if they had won.

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I also mean their only regulation goal was on a penalty kick, and one not especially "earned" by offensive pressure (just a dumb handball because a Spanish player left his hand in the air without seeing where the ball was). And yes, I realize Spain's goal was an own-goal by Russia, but that was after Spain had gotten the ball played into a dangerous area where such a thing could happen.

Russia played smart tactically, probably the only way they could win. But it was still a little bit flukey that Spain couldn't get another goal in regulation or extra time. I do think their issues with failing to finish plays with a scoring chance despite all of the possession was going to bite them at some point . . . but they still should have beaten Russia.

OdontoBear66 said:

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Then Japan outplays Belgium for 69 minutes and legitimately leads 2-0, but the favorites come back to score 3 in the final 20+ minutes...Crushing for Japan which had to think it had the game at the 70th minute.

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Terrific finish. I saw the only 20 minutes of the match that needed to be seen and the winning goal was a terrific play by the Belgian goalie (how often does anybody say that?).

Yogi Bear said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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Then Japan outplays Belgium for 69 minutes and legitimately leads 2-0, but the favorites come back to score 3 in the final 20+ minutes...Crushing for Japan which had to think it had the game at the 70th minute.

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Terrific finish. I saw the only 20 minutes of the match that needed to be seen and the winning goal was a terrific play by the Belgian goalie (how often does anybody say that?).

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Reminds me of how Tim Howard started the break for USA vs. Algeria in 2010, resulting in the big Landon Donovan last-second goal to escape the group stage.

sycasey said:

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TheSouseFamily said:

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538 is a computer poll based on algorithms, not something done by a bunch of writers or "experts". And it's proven thus far to be much more accurate in the World Cup than the FIFA rankings. 538 has 8 of its 11 highest rated teams still playing whereas the FIFA rankings only have 5. 538 rated Poland and Peru far lower than FIFA and it was exactly right about that.

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I continue to find it irritating when people say "538 doesn't know anything about X." They're trying to create computer models to calculate probabilities for certain events (elections, sports, etc.). There's no way they can ever be 100% accurate, because weird things will always happen.

But the fair way to criticize them wouldn't be to pick out the times when they were wrong, it would be to compare their record to other people and/or organizations that attempt to make predictions. They also tend to be pretty open about their process, so again, if you have a problem with that process then point out where it could be better.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2018-world-cup-predictions-work/

So far 538's record hasn't been too bad with this tournament. They also haven't been too bad with elections (yes, even in 2016 -- they predicted Clinton would win the most votes and she did, but they also predicted it would be close and that could give Trump a shot at winning the Electoral College).

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To put it in NCAAF terms, soccer metrics as used here by 538 are a lot more like the preseason or early season Sagarin than mid or late season Sagarins, which become fairly accurate with time. A tournament like the World Cup is inherently more difficult to predict due to its structure and low frequency, as compared with for instance a domestic league or cup game. There is an additional layer of unpredictability in the World Cup that is added on to the inherent unpredictability of competitive soccer. There is more personnel turnover, and more matchup issues with teams having a lot more of a national character than in club football.

Take the France-Argentina game for instance, where the skills of 19yo newcomer Mbappe turned out to be the decisive factor, driving French tactics and having a large impact on the final result. That's why it's difficult to model the outcome of that game based on the French team's past performance. At the other end of players life cycle, it's somewhat difficult to predict whether a current champion is going to maintain its form or fall off the cliff like Germany did, some veteran teams have done well in the past, others crashed. So that's one aspect of how the World Cup is a bit more like early season NCAAF predictions than late season.

I can't speak to the underlying analysis that led the authors to the claim that soccer was 50% luck and 50% skill, only that the research was done quantitatively. I'm not pretending to be an expert but it makes sense to me. Tactics and organization might matter but ultimately the team with the most shots on target wins only 50%-58% of the time (depending on the team) based on several thousand games over many years evaluated by those authors. Seemingly the goal of strategy, tactics and organization and is to score a goal which is necessarily predicated on having a shot on target, right? And if that doesn't even lead to success, it tells me that luck and arbitrariness are indeed major factors. Perhaps the World Cup results are different. I don't know.

I don't bemoan this arbitrariness as it's just part of soccer's nature. Heck, even the timing of the game is arbitrary. 538 did an analysis of stoppage time and concluded that the stoppage times were not only off in the WC, but way off. Just part of the charm, I suppose.

Another fun fact from that book that I recall: card accumulation was strongly correlated with how recently the country of the player had experienced a civil war.

TheSouseFamily said:

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Another fun fact from that book that I recall: card accumulation was strongly correlated with how recently the country of the player had experienced a civil war.

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This made me chuckle.

sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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As well, them winning on penalties is not a fluke, at that stage all of the pressure was on the heavy favorite, this is something that is well understood. In fact the home crowd reacted at the end of regulation as if they had won.

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I also mean their only regulation goal was on a penalty kick, and one not especially "earned" by offensive pressure (just a dumb handball because a Spanish player left his hand in the air without seeing where the ball was). And yes, I realize Spain's goal was an own-goal by Russia, but that was after Spain had gotten the ball played into a dangerous area where such a thing could happen.

Russia played smart tactically, probably the only way they could win. But it was still a little bit flukey that Spain couldn't get another goal in regulation or extra time. I do think their issues with failing to finish plays with a scoring chance despite all of the possession was going to bite them at some point . . . but they still should have beaten Russia.

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At this level, players (especially Spain's veterans) don't "leave their hand in the air" innocently in front of a player who's beaten them to the ball and is about to head it in the direction of the goal.

Pique got beat to the ball and put up his arm in front of the Russian attacker. It was part brain fart, and part cynical reaction. Here's the BBC crew take on this:

Quote:

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"That's panic. When you know you're in the wrong position, you put your arms up in panic and it's the right decision," said BBC expert and former England captain Rio Ferdinand.

"He knows what he's doing," agreed former striker Alan Shearer. "When he loses the ball in the air he puts his arm up to try and block it. He knows the ball is over his head and he's done that out of panic."

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https://www.news.com.au/sport/football/world-cup/idiotic-handball-costs-spain-as-russia-claims-world-cup-upset/news-story/afe956ef80df76bd737816a07c35a663

And that handball also happened as a result of Russia "playing the ball in a dangerous area where things could happen". Your premise about Spain is wrong as well, Spain lost precisely because it didn't push the ball into a dangerous area where things could happen, they wasted a lot of time just holding on to the ball above the Russian third of the field and waiting for the Russians to overcommit or make a defensive mistake instead of driving through and sending players forward, or setting uptheir most clinical finisher Diego Costa, whom they subbed out instead.

Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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As well, them winning on penalties is not a fluke, at that stage all of the pressure was on the heavy favorite, this is something that is well understood. In fact the home crowd reacted at the end of regulation as if they had won.

---

I also mean their only regulation goal was on a penalty kick, and one not especially "earned" by offensive pressure (just a dumb handball because a Spanish player left his hand in the air without seeing where the ball was). And yes, I realize Spain's goal was an own-goal by Russia, but that was after Spain had gotten the ball played into a dangerous area where such a thing could happen.

Russia played smart tactically, probably the only way they could win. But it was still a little bit flukey that Spain couldn't get another goal in regulation or extra time. I do think their issues with failing to finish plays with a scoring chance despite all of the possession was going to bite them at some point . . . but they still should have beaten Russia.

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At this level, players (especially Spain's veterans) don't "leave their hand in the air" innocently in front of a player who's beaten them to the ball and is about to head it in the direction of the goal.

Pique got beat to the ball and put up his arm in front of the Russian attacker. It was part brain fart, and part cynical reaction. Here's the BBC crew take on this:

Quote:

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"That's panic. When you know you're in the wrong position, you put your arms up in panic and it's the right decision," said BBC expert and former England captain Rio Ferdinand.

"He knows what he's doing," agreed former striker Alan Shearer. "When he loses the ball in the air he puts his arm up to try and block it. He knows the ball is over his head and he's done that out of panic."

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https://www.news.com.au/sport/football/world-cup/idiotic-handball-costs-spain-as-russia-claims-world-cup-upset/news-story/afe956ef80df76bd737816a07c35a663

And that handball also happened as a result of Russia "playing the ball in a dangerous area where things could happen". Your premise about Spain is wrong as well, Spain lost precisely because it didn't push the ball into a dangerous area where things could happen, they wasted a lot of time just holding on to the ball above the Russian third of the field and waiting for the Russians to overcommit or make a defensive mistake instead of driving through and sending players forward, or setting uptheir most clinical finisher Diego Costa, whom they subbed out instead.

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Even this article basically says that Russia was dominated for most of the match and held on thanks to a dumb mistake by Spain, so I'll stick by my interpretation of what happened. Nothing against Russia's tactics, which are exactly what huge underdog has to do to give themselves a chance.

I agree that Spain's manager made a mistake in not trying harder to score in the second half. He should have known his own goalie was at a disadvantage in a penalty shootout.

NVGolfingBear said:

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Belgium had been playing fairly well but not with a lot of urgency to my eyes. Then Japan scored and then scored again! That woke up the Belgian side and they pretty much controlled the last 20+ minutes though Japan still got some decent chances. Best match of the World Cup so far. Brazil was just better than Mexico IMO.

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agree it was the best match (at least that I saw). Some simply amazing plays. The first Belgium score was amazing. I still don't quite know what happened on that game winning Belgium goal. heartbreak for Japan.

HoopDreams said:

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NVGolfingBear said:

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. I still don't quite know what happened on that game winning Belgium goal. heartbreak for Japan.

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Tim Howard quick outlet sparks Landon Donovan goal for USA over Algeria part deux.

Players get tired and desperate late in soccer. More late goals than early goals.
Cool stuff

"Der Kraftwurfel" aka "The Powercube" for Xherdan Shakiri is truly one of the best nicknames ever in soccer.

Colombia getting away with a lot of super-chippy play against England. This must be part of their strategy, trying to throw the Brits off their game.

EDIT: And as I say this, England is awarded a penalty kick. Not getting away with it so much now.

I'm pulling for England because my wife is English and her boss is Swedish. If England holds on, the bet will be a rusted 1968 Volvo vs. a brand new Aston Martin DB11.

That was shaping up to be a very England kind of loss, but they pulled it out in PKs.

All of Colombia's fouling and diving and whining got very annoying to me after a while, so even though I picked them in my pool I was happy to see them eliminated.

sycasey said:

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Colombia getting away with a lot of super-chippy play against England. This must be part of their strategy, trying to throw the Brits off their game.

EDIT: And as I say this, England is awarded a penalty kick. Not getting away with it so much now.

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What a dumb move by the Colombian player, I mean, it's only Harry Kane in the box and you're going to jump on his back and tackle him and think you're going to get away with it?

oskirules said:

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sycasey said:

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Colombia getting away with a lot of super-chippy play against England. This must be part of their strategy, trying to throw the Brits off their game.

EDIT: And as I say this, England is awarded a penalty kick. Not getting away with it so much now.

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What a dumb move by the Colombian player, I mean, it's only Harry Kane in the box and you're going to jump on his back and tackle him and think you're going to get away with it?

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Pretty egregious foul. It seemed clear that Colombia wanted to come out and commit a bunch of hard fouls, but doing it in the box to England's star goal-scorer wasn't a good idea.

oskirules said:

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sycasey said:

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Colombia getting away with a lot of super-chippy play against England. This must be part of their strategy, trying to throw the Brits off their game.

EDIT: And as I say this, England is awarded a penalty kick. Not getting away with it so much now.

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What a dumb move by the Colombian player, I mean, it's only Harry Kane in the box and you're going to jump on his back and tackle him and think you're going to get away with it?

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Players haven't fully adapted to the VAR yet, especially those who are used to cynical tactics. You won't see too many fouls like this in years to come. Retroactive yellows for blatant dives could also be implemented soon, which will help phase them out.

Cal88 said:

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oskirules said:

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sycasey said:

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Colombia getting away with a lot of super-chippy play against England. This must be part of their strategy, trying to throw the Brits off their game.

EDIT: And as I say this, England is awarded a penalty kick. Not getting away with it so much now.

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What a dumb move by the Colombian player, I mean, it's only Harry Kane in the box and you're going to jump on his back and tackle him and think you're going to get away with it?

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Players haven't fully adapted to the VAR yet, especially those who are used to cynical tactics. You won't see too many fouls like this in years to come. Retroactive yellows for blatant dives could also be implemented soon, which will help phase them out.

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I think your'e right, I hope you're right. I would have loved to seen Neymar given a yellow card for his theatrics.

Cal88 said:

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oskirules said:

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sycasey said:

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Colombia getting away with a lot of super-chippy play against England. This must be part of their strategy, trying to throw the Brits off their game.

EDIT: And as I say this, England is awarded a penalty kick. Not getting away with it so much now.

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What a dumb move by the Colombian player, I mean, it's only Harry Kane in the box and you're going to jump on his back and tackle him and think you're going to get away with it?

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Players haven't fully adapted to the VAR yet, especially those who are used to cynical tactics. You won't see too many fouls like this in years to come. Retroactive yellows for blatant dives could also be implemented soon, which will help phase them out.

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I am ready. I am done with those antics. Red cards for that bs please.

HoopDreams said:

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NVGolfingBear said:

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Belgium had been playing fairly well but not with a lot of urgency to my eyes. Then Japan scored and then scored again! That woke up the Belgian side and they pretty much controlled the last 20+ minutes though Japan still got some decent chances. Best match of the World Cup so far. Brazil was just better than Mexico IMO.

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agree it was the best match (at least that I saw). Some simply amazing plays. The first Belgium score was amazing. I still don't quite know what happened on that game winning Belgium goal. heartbreak for Japan.

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Good match, though disappointing as I was rooting for Japan. I thought Argentina - France was the best so far. Am now a big fan of Mbappe watching his highlight vids on YouTube.

calumnus said:

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HoopDreams said:

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NVGolfingBear said:

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Belgium had been playing fairly well but not with a lot of urgency to my eyes. Then Japan scored and then scored again! That woke up the Belgian side and they pretty much controlled the last 20+ minutes though Japan still got some decent chances. Best match of the World Cup so far. Brazil was just better than Mexico IMO.

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agree it was the best match (at least that I saw). Some simply amazing plays. The first Belgium score was amazing. I still don't quite know what happened on that game winning Belgium goal. heartbreak for Japan.

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Good match, though disappointing as I was rooting for Japan. I thought Argentina - France was the best so far. Am now a big fan of Mbapp, watching his highlight vids on YouTube.

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Argentina/France was a good one, but regardless of who you were rooting for, Belgium's comeback in 21 minutes was amazing.

calumnus said:

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HoopDreams said:

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NVGolfingBear said:

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Belgium had been playing fairly well but not with a lot of urgency to my eyes. Then Japan scored and then scored again! That woke up the Belgian side and they pretty much controlled the last 20+ minutes though Japan still got some decent chances. Best match of the World Cup so far. Brazil was just better than Mexico IMO.

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agree it was the best match (at least that I saw). Some simply amazing plays. The first Belgium score was amazing. I still don't quite know what happened on that game winning Belgium goal. heartbreak for Japan.

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Good match, though disappointing as I was rooting for Japan. I thought Argentina - France was the best so far. Am now a big fan of Mbapp, watching his highlight vids on YouTube.

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After the painful loss, Japanese fans cleaned their area of the stadium and players cleaned their locker room and left a thank you note in Russian. Who does that?

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/world-cup-2018-japan-fans-vs-belgium-clean-up-stadium-team-changing-room-thank-you-note-a8428666.html

sycasey said:

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Colombia getting away with a lot of super-chippy play against England. This must be part of their strategy, trying to throw the Brits off their game.

EDIT: And as I say this, England is awarded a penalty kick. Not getting away with it so much now.

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Columbia's Falcao said after the game that USA center ref Mark Geiger was biased in favor of England, speaking only English during the game.
I understand why he would say that, but come on, Columbia WAS playing rough and lost their minds at times with the reactions. I ref, and thought Geiger should have carded Falcao early for dissent. Get the hell out of my face! Falcao led a group of about 5 ape**** Colombians to protest at point blank for an excessive amount of time on the PK. Geiger was unaffected in that heated moment, and did a good job of bringing the game back under control by awarded more rapid cards. The end of the game was relatively clean, and Columbia scored when it was thus, so maybe they should've simply played from the start rather than get all muddy.

Cal88 said:

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Players haven't fully adapted to the VAR yet, especially those who are used to cynical tactics. You won't see too many fouls like this in years to come. Retroactive yellows for blatant dives could also be implemented soon, which will help phase them out.

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I'd like to go back in time and see what VAR would do with this:



Still pisses me off.

concordtom said:

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sycasey said:

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Colombia getting away with a lot of super-chippy play against England. This must be part of their strategy, trying to throw the Brits off their game.

EDIT: And as I say this, England is awarded a penalty kick. Not getting away with it so much now.

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Columbia's Falcao said after the game that USA center ref Mark Geiger was biased in favor of England, speaking only English during the game.
I understand why he would say that, but come on, Columbia WAS playing rough and lost their minds at times with the reactions. I ref, and thought Geiger should have carded Falcao early for dissent. Get the hell out of my face! Falcao led a group of about 5 ape**** Colombians to protest at point blank for an excessive amount of time on the PK. Geiger was unaffected in that heated moment, and did a good job of bringing the game back under control by awarded more rapid cards. The end of the game was relatively clean, and Columbia scored when it was thus, so maybe they should've simply played from the start rather than get all muddy.

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FIFA referees are required to use English. That's just sour grapes.

concordtom said:

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Cal88 said:

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Players haven't fully adapted to the VAR yet, especially those who are used to cynical tactics. You won't see too many fouls like this in years to come. Retroactive yellows for blatant dives could also be implemented soon, which will help phase them out.

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I'd like to go back in time and see what VAR would do with this:



Still pisses me off.

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That was complete nonsense, I don't what the ref was looking at!

So we have South, North and Central America all gone from the World Cup. Wow. Could be an all European semi is Croatia wins.

Meantime go Sweden. The announcers sure have bias to England. Take 'em down.

OdontoBear66 said:

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So we have South, North and Central America all gone from the World Cup. Wow. Could be an all European semi is Croatia wins.

Meantime go Sweden. The announcers sure have bias to England. Take 'em down.

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This tends to happen when the World Cup is played in the European region. Teams from the Americas usually don't do well in those Cups.

sycasey said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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So we have South, North and Central America all gone from the World Cup. Wow. Could be an all European semi is Croatia wins.

Meantime go Sweden. The announcers sure have bias to England. Take 'em down.

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This tends to happen when the World Cup is played in the European region. Teams from the Americas usually don't do well in those Cups.

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Hate to admit the Brits came with it today. The Swedes were totally shut down. So now I shift to England or Croatia (if they make it). Belgium has too many French and well, France is France.

OdontoBear66 said:

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sycasey said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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So we have South, North and Central America all gone from the World Cup. Wow. Could be an all European semi is Croatia wins.

Meantime go Sweden. The announcers sure have bias to England. Take 'em down.

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This tends to happen when the World Cup is played in the European region. Teams from the Americas usually don't do well in those Cups.

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Hate to admit the Brits came with it today. The Swedes were totally shut down. So now I shift to England or Croatia (if they make it). Belgium has too many French and well, France is France.

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England was stout but Sweden had a few excellent chances that were thwarted by Pickford. They actually had more shots on goal than England. As is always the case with soccer, a few more inches and we're looking at a different match.

TheSouseFamily said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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sycasey said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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So we have South, North and Central America all gone from the World Cup. Wow. Could be an all European semi is Croatia wins.

Meantime go Sweden. The announcers sure have bias to England. Take 'em down.

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This tends to happen when the World Cup is played in the European region. Teams from the Americas usually don't do well in those Cups.

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Hate to admit the Brits came with it today. The Swedes were totally shut down. So now I shift to England or Croatia (if they make it). Belgium has too many French and well, France is France.

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England was stout but Sweden had a few excellent chances that were thwarted by Pickford. They actually had more shots on goal than England. As is always the case with soccer, a few more inches and we're looking at a different match.

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True, but as much as I love Sweden (100% Swedish) I have to admit England was definitely the better side. Way to much boom ball and headers by the Swedes. Little ball on the ground crisp passing with great collections. Loved them getting this far, but it was Mother Englands day on the pitch.

Agreed. The better side won. Nice to see two teams play with class for the most part too, without all the fake injuries and writhing on the ground. Will be pulling for England the rest of the way.

I want to see Russia play England...for the geopolitical antics that might occur. See if the Englanders are poisoned with nerve gas.

OdontoBear66 said:

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sycasey said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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So we have South, North and Central America all gone from the World Cup. Wow. Could be an all European semi is Croatia wins.

Meantime go Sweden. The announcers sure have bias to England. Take 'em down.

---

This tends to happen when the World Cup is played in the European region. Teams from the Americas usually don't do well in those Cups.

---

Hate to admit the Brits came with it today. The Swedes were totally shut down. So now I shift to England or Croatia (if they make it). Belgium has too many French and well, France is France.

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This England team seems very different from the squads that crashed out in the final 8 or 16 before. They are aggressive and take it to the opponent. Really enjoying them.

The 3 teams that have advanced have all been very entertaining. Shame about this Croatia-Russia rockfight.

sycasey said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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sycasey said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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So we have South, North and Central America all gone from the World Cup. Wow. Could be an all European semi is Croatia wins.

Meantime go Sweden. The announcers sure have bias to England. Take 'em down.

---

This tends to happen when the World Cup is played in the European region. Teams from the Americas usually don't do well in those Cups.

---

Hate to admit the Brits came with it today. The Swedes were totally shut down. So now I shift to England or Croatia (if they make it). Belgium has too many French and well, France is France.

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This England team seems very different from the squads that crashed out in the final 8 or 16 before. They are aggressive and take it to the opponent. Really enjoying them.

The 3 teams that have advanced have all been very entertaining. Shame about this Croatia-Russia rockfight.

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Again the better side won, but what a gutty effort by Russia. Now to the all Euro semi finals.