Nasal Mucus Goldenbear said:
This is the first time I've heard of PS underemphasizing experience. Is "over all" experience different from game playing experience? Perhaps just as important as (in some years, more important than) future injuries is quality depth to cover for inevitable injuries (quality depth is prob easier to predict than injuries given game playing experience and the addition of some rare sure-thing prep/jc superstars).
Quote:
The dubious ones
depth is important and measurable, but we had depth at LB last year but were not the same when Downs went down. USC has all kinds of depth every year but they could not recover from the shear number of injuries they had last year.
Also, there are times when injuries hit the same position over and over wiping out whatever depth there is. For some reason, this happens quite frequently and has happened at Cal. For example Cal had their secondary wiped out a few years back. They had their DL position hit hard at one time 2 years ago. I think under JT one year the RB position was hit hard.
The point is that injuries, at least right now, are not predictable and yet they impact the game significantly which reduces the effectiveness of guys like PS.
Potentially PS or others could develop a metric that could have significant predictive value when it comes to injuries. The way to do that is to look at the archives and see if any data relating to injuries proves to have significant predictive value from year to year. This is actually the way he developed many of his current metrics. At some number or value, all data becomes significant. For example turnovers become important when there are enough of them or when there is a certain margin. PS studies what that threshold is when such things actually have predictive value.
A similar study could be done to see what injury data, if any, has had predictive value. For example, a team that has x number of injuries to starters in year 1
may not be likely to have less injuries the following year, but a team that has y number of injuries
is likely to have less injuries the following year. That threshold could be one of several data points that go into a predictive metric regarding injuries and their impact.
On the issue of experience and PS: He does quite a lot on experience, but I don't think he values it as much as "talent" according to his PS number and I disagree with that. I also think it throws off his depth charts.