Why did Rosen's stock drop so quickly?

14,132 Views | 102 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by oski003
wifeisafurd
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He is being shopped by the Cardinals who have the number 1 pick and are presumed to be interested in Heisman winner Murray. The trade market for Rosen doesn't appear to be materializing according to NFL reporters. Somewhat troubling is that the Cardinals already released their upcoming promotional videos for next year and none of them include Rosen. Is this a Goff issue (wrong fit initially)? Thoughts.
hanky1
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Everyone wants the new, shiny thing. Rosen's numbers were bad last year, but I watched a few Cardinal games and was really impressed with some of the throws he was making. If he lands in the right situation, he'll be better than any QB in this year's draft.
packawana
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Kingsbury is also in love with Murray, so it may be a specific situation. But it's pretty clear that if you put Rosen in a spread it out offense, like when Fisch was OC, he can will a team to win.
okaydo
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hanky1 said:

Everyone wants the new, shiny thing. Rosen's numbers were bad last year, but I watched a few Cardinal games and was really impressed with some of the throws he was making. If he lands in the right situation, he'll be better than any QB in this year's draft.
New, shiny thing.

Josh Rosen = Beto
Kyler Murray = Mayor Pete
ColoradoBear
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Can't answer that question, but I do hope the the Cardinals are epicly bad this year. Hiring a fired college coach who had at best middling success because another recently successful NFL team has a young offensively minded coach seems like it should not work.

Guess would be that Az is simply asking too much for Rosen.
okaydo
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ColoradoBear said:

Can't answer that question, but I do hope the the Cardinals are epicly bad this year. Hiring a fired college coach who had at best middling success because another recently successful NFL team has a young offensively minded coach seems like it should not work.

Guess would be that Az is simply asking too much for Rosen.

Hoping the same for the Bengals.

Hiring a position coach to be head coach 13 months after he was a team's *assistant* WR coach, who's success is mainly thanks to being the son-in-law to a former NFL Head coach, seems like it shouldn't work.
71Bear
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wifeisafurd said:

He is being shopped by the Cardinals who have the number 1 pick and are presumed to be interested in Heisman winner Murray. The trade market for Rosen doesn't appear to be materializing according to NFL reporters. Somewhat troubling is that the Cardinals already released their upcoming promotional videos for next year and none of them include Rosen. Is this a Goff issue (wrong fit initially)? Thoughts.
Here is a stat for you...

Rosen has played for five OC's in the last 4 1/2 years*.

I suspect that if he ever found himself in a stable coaching situation, he would reach his potential.

* Mazzone, Polamalu, Fisch at UCLA and McCoy and Leftwich at AZ.
HungryCalBear
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Perhaps it's his attitude. Proclaiming 9 NFL teams made mistakes on that draft day didn't win him friends.
71Bear
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HungryCalBear said:

Perhaps it's his attitude. Proclaiming 9 NFL teams made mistakes on that draft day didn't win him friends.
Didn't Rodgers say that 20+ teams made a mistake on draft day? It didn't seem to affect him.

Speaking brashly is standard procedure on draft day. In essence, it is meaningless chatter.
wifeisafurd
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71Bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

He is being shopped by the Cardinals who have the number 1 pick and are presumed to be interested in Heisman winner Murray. The trade market for Rosen doesn't appear to be materializing according to NFL reporters. Somewhat troubling is that the Cardinals already released their upcoming promotional videos for next year and none of them include Rosen. Is this a Goff issue (wrong fit initially)? Thoughts.
Here is a stat for you...

Rosen has played for five OC's in the last 4 1/2 years*.

I suspect that if he ever found himself in a stable coaching situation, he would reach his potential.

* Mazzone, Polamalu, Fisch at UCLA and McCoy and Leftwich at AZ.
This makes sense.
OdontoBear66
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hanky1 said:

Everyone wants the new, shiny thing. Rosen's numbers were bad last year, but I watched a few Cardinal games and was really impressed with some of the throws he was making. If he lands in the right situation, he'll be better than any QB in this year's draft.
Probably best analysis of Rosen...."was really impressed with SOME of the throws he was making".

Isn't that Rosen? When he's good, he can be very good. Without great protection that is SOMEtime.
bearister
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I have not watched him since FUCLA so I would like someone who has watched him in the NFL to let me know if his problems have anything to do with my scouting report of him in college:

If the O line provides him 4 seconds of protection he is a very effective QB; if they don't he is a INT machine.
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91Cal
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bearister said:

If the O line provides him 4 seconds of protection he is a very effective QB; if they don't he is a INT machine.
Is there a stat tracking how long before the pocket breaks down on average?

I recall that the few times I watched the Cardinals last year, Rosen had little to no time...even against the 49ers' anemic pass defense.

I see Sk%, which is # times sacked/(#times + passes attempted) on pro-football-reference.com under passing, but this doesn't tell the whole story as 4 of the 6 highest in this stat are running QBs like Mariota, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott.
wifeisafurd
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bearister said:

I have not watched him since FUCLA so I would like someone who has watched him in the NFL to let me know if his problems have anything to do with my scouting report of him in college:

If the O line provides him 4 seconds of protection he is a very effective QB; if they don't he is a INT machine.
Is Murray a much more mobile QB or get the ball out much faster than Rosen? One thing about Rodgers is how many times he is able to buy time and make plays with his great foot movement. Not sure how much of that Rosen has been able to learn from the ever-changing coaching carousel. I'm still with Yogi, having good, consistent coaching is needed for a young QB, even for a talented young QB.
philbert
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Analysis from nfl.com:

Overview
Severely undersized, one-year starter with rare playmaking talent that could force general managers to reassess long-held notions about size and style for a franchise quarterback. Murray is like a complex burgundy with notes of Baker Mayfield, Johnny Manziel and Russell Wilson in his play, but like any quarterback, he'll need to prove he can recognize disguised coverages and work on-time from the pocket to go from flash talent to playoff winner. Teams drafting him need to have the right coordinator and must be committed to framing their offense specifically to Murray's strengths and weaknesses, which could require additional roster re-configuration. Murray is an electric talent with a live arm, good mental makeup and the skill-set to produce at a high level in the right offense.
Strengths
  • Never seems to get rattled or overwhelmed
  • Showed ability to elevate his play in clutch situations
  • Plus runner and passer as true dual-threat quarterback
  • Twitchy ball-handler for instant delivery from RPO reads
  • Gets through progressions and won't fall in love with primary target
  • Above-verage release quickness from pocket
  • Lively arm to challenge safeties and attack tight windows
  • Throws catchable ball with good touch
  • Baseball outfielder with "long toss" deep-throw talent
  • Quick with smooth follow-through for easy 50-yard throws in rhythm
  • Effective and accurate when throwing on the move
  • Puts fatigued defenses in a serious bind
  • Uncommon ability to extend plays and make back-breaking throws
  • Most elusive pocket target rushers will ever see
  • Sacked just 18 times
  • Slips tackles and outruns defenders like a running back
  • Torments coordinators with zone-read runs and third-down conversions with legs
Weaknesses
  • Just one season as full-time starter and leader of the team
  • Requires diversity-of-game experience for NFL chess matches
  • Had 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions before final season
  • Short with smallish frame
  • Concerns over durability due to size and playing style
  • Needs to implement more open-field slides when finishing runs
  • Could struggle to see and throw over defenders from the pocket
  • Defaults to low arm-angle throws unnecessarily
  • Will leave feet behind when scanning and throwing
  • Needs better eye discipline to avoid stare-down scenarios
  • Too willing to challenge into double coverage
  • Mechanical inconsistencies can cause throws to sail
  • Needs to prove he can throw on time to the middle of the field
Sources Tell Us

"He's a special athlete, but it takes more than that. We just don't know with him because he's had one year in the Big 12 with a great system. I like him, but I wouldn't be ready to risk my job for him yet." -- Executive with NFC team
BearGoggles
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Rosen to the Chargers, NY Giants, or team like that (i.e., aging qb) would be a smart trade. I would put New Orleans in that category, but they apparently have Teddy Bridgewater for that purpose.

The problem is that I don't think any team will trade a first round pick for him. But a second might make sense.
GMP
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wifeisafurd said:

He is being shopped by the Cardinals who have the number 1 pick and are presumed to be interested in Heisman winner Murray. The trade market for Rosen doesn't appear to be materializing according to NFL reporters. Somewhat troubling is that the Cardinals already released their upcoming promotional videos for next year and none of them include Rosen. Is this a Goff issue (wrong fit initially)? Thoughts.

I'm curious what those reporters mean when they say the market for Rosen hasn't materialized. What I suspect it means is that the Cardinals have put themselves in a bad negotiating position. They spent a high first rounder on a QB last year. He didn't have a slam dunk rookie year (not many QBs do) and so now they are in love with the new shiny QB to come along. Murray may very well be better. But by not hiding their love for Murray they have diminished the market for Rosen, because other teams know they are desperate to unload him. By the same token, Arizona wants to flip Rosen at a minimized loss. In other words, it's not that the market hasn't developed for Rosen, it's that Arizona's ask is way too high given that they've cut themselves off at the knee.

As for Rosen, it's not the end. I agree with others here who said he had moments last year. He could be really god. I mean, geeze, it's his rookie year as an NFL QB. It's not easy. If he goes to a team that knows what the hell it's doing, I really believe he could be a poor man's Peyton Manning. But finding a team that won't screw him up is not easy - odds are he'll end up somewhere dysfunctional and he'll look middling, at best.
cal83dls79
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The big rumor here today was that the pats would or should make a move to get Rosen. The comparisons to him and Goff were soooo off the mark. But I agree with GMP even though he over uses geez
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calumnus
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cal83dls79 said:

The big rumor here today was that the pats would or should make a move to get Rosen. The comparisons to him and Goff were soooo off the mark. But I agree with GMP even though he over uses geez


Yes, I thought GMP's post was spot on except for the prediction he ends up somewhere dysfunctional. I think there is a good chance a savvy organization will deal for him and he will be in a much better situation (being Tom Brady's understudy for example) than he is in now.
71Bear
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cal83dls79 said:

The big rumor here today was that the pats would or should make a move to get Rosen. The comparisons to him and Goff were soooo off the mark. But I agree with GMP even though he over uses geez
The comparisons are correct if one is looking at their respective rookie seasons. Both Goff and Rosen were awful due to substandard coaching.
cal83dls79
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71Bear said:

cal83dls79 said:

The big rumor here today was that the pats would or should make a move to get Rosen. The comparisons to him and Goff were soooo off the mark. But I agree with GMP even though he over uses geez
The comparisons are correct if one is looking at their respective rookie seasons. Both Goff and Rosen were awful due to substandard coaching.
you are correct, but the media here has zero respect for Goff and overlook all of his other positives....including having led his team to a super bowl. Drives me nuts.
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okaydo
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71Bear said:

cal83dls79 said:

The big rumor here today was that the pats would or should make a move to get Rosen. The comparisons to him and Goff were soooo off the mark. But I agree with GMP even though he over uses geez
The comparisons are correct if one is looking at their respective rookie seasons. Both Goff and Rosen were awful due to substandard coaching.

Jared Goff's rookie year coaching staff had a combined 0 years experience as an offensive coordinator and a combined 1 year experience as a QB coach.

Josh Rosen's rookie year coaching staff had a combined 5 years experience as an offensive coordinator and a combined 6 years experience as a QB coach.


(Remember, Rosen had Peyton Manning's former QB coach and OC.)

My point is in the post below:



okaydo
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cal83dls79 said:

71Bear said:

cal83dls79 said:

The big rumor here today was that the pats would or should make a move to get Rosen. The comparisons to him and Goff were soooo off the mark. But I agree with GMP even though he over uses geez
The comparisons are correct if one is looking at their respective rookie seasons. Both Goff and Rosen were awful due to substandard coaching.
you are correct, but the media here has zero respect for Goff and overlook all of his other positives....including having led his team to a super bowl. Drives me nuts.

As my above post suggests, there's a difference between having bad coaches and having inexperienced coaches. The problem with the media narrative on Goff is that, hey, he just had bad coaches. But it's worse than that: his coaches were completely inexperienced. At least most bad coaches* have experience to offer *some* help.

Goff went from having coaches who were completely inexperienced to Sean McVay. McVay is a genius, but he had only 3 years experience as an OC when the Rams hired him and no experience as a QB coach. So he hired as his offensive coordinator Matt LeFleur, who had 6 years experience as a QB coach, to be his OC. And he hired Greg Olson, who had 16 years experience as an OC and/or QB coach, to be his QB coach.

So Goff went from a staff with a combined 1 year experience as OC and QB coach to a staff with a combined 23 years experience as OC and QB coach. And that explains his dramatic improvement.


(*An example of having bad but experienced coaches benefitting a QB: Baker Mayfield. The 2018 Browns staff had a combined 33 years experience as an offensive coordinator and QB coach, including the coaches who were fired.)

People like to compare Goff's rookie year situation to other QBs' situations. But Goff's situation was completely unique in its badness. Even Mitch Trubitsky, who has often drawn comparisons to Goff, had experienced offensive coaches his rookie year.
wifeisafurd
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GMP said:

wifeisafurd said:

He is being shopped by the Cardinals who have the number 1 pick and are presumed to be interested in Heisman winner Murray. The trade market for Rosen doesn't appear to be materializing according to NFL reporters. Somewhat troubling is that the Cardinals already released their upcoming promotional videos for next year and none of them include Rosen. Is this a Goff issue (wrong fit initially)? Thoughts.

I'm curious what those reporters mean when they say the market for Rosen hasn't materialized. What I suspect it means is that the Cardinals have put themselves in a bad negotiating position. They spent a high first rounder on a QB last year. He didn't have a slam dunk rookie year (not many QBs do) and so now they are in love with the new shiny QB to come along. Murray may very well be better. But by not hiding their love for Murray they have diminished the market for Rosen, because other teams know they are desperate to unload him. By the same token, Arizona wants to flip Rosen at a minimized loss. In other words, it's not that the market hasn't developed for Rosen, it's that Arizona's ask is way too high given that they've cut themselves off at the knee.

As for Rosen, it's not the end. I agree with others here who said he had moments last year. He could be really god. I mean, geeze, it's his rookie year as an NFL QB. It's not easy. If he goes to a team that knows what the hell it's doing, I really believe he could be a poor man's Peyton Manning. But finding a team that won't screw him up is not easy - odds are he'll end up somewhere dysfunctional and he'll look middling, at best.
What the writers mean, I presume, is that the Cardinals are not getting a lot of the interest they expected, and several teams that on paper need QBs long term (e.g., Denver) have said publicly they don't have an interest. I have not following the story obliviously, but your comments on the Cardinal's negotiation position may be dead on.
bearister
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If Murray ends up being a total bust you can rest assured it will be in a Las Vegas Raider's uniform. Doomed franchise.

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cal83dls79
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okaydo said:

cal83dls79 said:

71Bear said:

cal83dls79 said:

The big rumor here today was that the pats would or should make a move to get Rosen. The comparisons to him and Goff were soooo off the mark. But I agree with GMP even though he over uses geez
The comparisons are correct if one is looking at their respective rookie seasons. Both Goff and Rosen were awful due to substandard coaching.
you are correct, but the media here has zero respect for Goff and overlook all of his other positives....including having led his team to a super bowl. Drives me nuts.

As my above post suggests, there's a difference between having bad coaches and having inexperienced coaches. The problem with the media narrative on Goff is that, hey, he just had bad coaches. But it's worse than that: his coaches were completely inexperienced. At least most bad coaches* have experience to offer *some* help.

Goff went from having coaches who were completely inexperienced to Sean McVay. McVay is a genius, but he had only 3 years experience as an OC when the Rams hired him and no experience as a QB coach. So he hired as his offensive coordinator Matt LeFleur, who had 6 years experience as a QB coach, to be his OC. And he hired Greg Olson, who had 16 years experience as an OC and/or QB coach, to be his QB coach.

So Goff went from a staff with a combined 1 year experience as OC and QB coach to a staff with a combined 23 years experience as OC and QB coach. And that explains his dramatic improvement.


(*An example of having bad but experienced coaches benefitting a QB: Baker Mayfield. The 2018 Browns staff had a combined 33 years experience as an offensive coordinator and QB coach, including the coaches who were fired.)

People like Goff's rookie year situation to other QBs' situations. But Goff's situation was completely unique in its badness. Even Mitch Trubitsky, who has often drawn comparisons to Goff, had experienced offensive coaches his rookie year.

that experience is so huge, I'm glad Jared got that because he's a stud and deserves it to draw his full talent. Coaching matters. Dls79
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71Bear
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okaydo said:

cal83dls79 said:

71Bear said:

cal83dls79 said:

The big rumor here today was that the pats would or should make a move to get Rosen. The comparisons to him and Goff were soooo off the mark. But I agree with GMP even though he over uses geez
The comparisons are correct if one is looking at their respective rookie seasons. Both Goff and Rosen were awful due to substandard coaching.
you are correct, but the media here has zero respect for Goff and overlook all of his other positives....including having led his team to a super bowl. Drives me nuts.

As my above post suggests, there's a difference between having bad coaches and having inexperienced coaches. The problem with the media narrative on Goff is that, hey, he just had bad coaches. But it's worse than that: his coaches were completely inexperienced. At least most bad coaches* have experience to offer *some* help.

Goff went from having coaches who were completely inexperienced to Sean McVay. McVay is a genius, but he had only 3 years experience as an OC when the Rams hired him and no experience as a QB coach. So he hired as his offensive coordinator Matt LeFleur, who had 6 years experience as a QB coach, to be his OC. And he hired Greg Olson, who had 16 years experience as an OC and/or QB coach, to be his QB coach.

So Goff went from a staff with a combined 1 year experience as OC and QB coach to a staff with a combined 23 years experience as OC and QB coach. And that explains his dramatic improvement.


(*An example of having bad but experienced coaches benefitting a QB: Baker Mayfield. The 2018 Browns staff had a combined 33 years experience as an offensive coordinator and QB coach, including the coaches who were fired.)

People like to compare Goff's rookie year situation to other QBs' situations. But Goff's situation was completely unique in its badness. Even Mitch Trubitsky, who has often drawn comparisons to Goff, had experienced offensive coaches his rookie year.

Until McVay wins a Super Bowl, I think the "genius" label is a bit premature. Heck, it took three SB wins before Bill Walsh was given the title. Today, McVay is a good coach. Tomorrow? Who knows......
philbert
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okaydo said:

cal83dls79 said:

71Bear said:

cal83dls79 said:

The big rumor here today was that the pats would or should make a move to get Rosen. The comparisons to him and Goff were soooo off the mark. But I agree with GMP even though he over uses geez
The comparisons are correct if one is looking at their respective rookie seasons. Both Goff and Rosen were awful due to substandard coaching.
you are correct, but the media here has zero respect for Goff and overlook all of his other positives....including having led his team to a super bowl. Drives me nuts.

As my above post suggests, there's a difference between having bad coaches and having inexperienced coaches. The problem with the media narrative on Goff is that, hey, he just had bad coaches. But it's worse than that: his coaches were completely inexperienced. At least most bad coaches* have experience to offer *some* help.

Goff went from having coaches who were completely inexperienced to Sean McVay. McVay is a genius, but he had only 3 years experience as an OC when the Rams hired him and no experience as a QB coach. So he hired as his offensive coordinator Matt LeFleur, who had 6 years experience as a QB coach, to be his OC. And he hired Greg Olson, who had 16 years experience as an OC and/or QB coach, to be his QB coach.

So Goff went from a staff with a combined 1 year experience as OC and QB coach to a staff with a combined 23 years experience as OC and QB coach. And that explains his dramatic improvement.


(*An example of having bad but experienced coaches benefitting a QB: Baker Mayfield. The 2018 Browns staff had a combined 33 years experience as an offensive coordinator and QB coach, including the coaches who were fired.)

People like to compare Goff's rookie year situation to other QBs' situations. But Goff's situation was completely unique in its badness. Even Mitch Trubitsky, who has often drawn comparisons to Goff, had experienced offensive coaches his rookie year.

I think the Rams also upgraded their offensive personnel when McVay came onboard. They invested quite a bit in WRs and OL.

I don't think Rosen had a very good OL. Not sure how their receivers were, but Fitzgerald is close to the end of his career.
71Bear
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okaydo said:

71Bear said:

cal83dls79 said:

The big rumor here today was that the pats would or should make a move to get Rosen. The comparisons to him and Goff were soooo off the mark. But I agree with GMP even though he over uses geez
The comparisons are correct if one is looking at their respective rookie seasons. Both Goff and Rosen were awful due to substandard coaching.

Jared Goff's rookie year coaching staff had a combined 0 years experience as an offensive coordinator and a combined 1 year experience as a QB coach.

Josh Rosen's rookie year coaching staff had a combined 5 years experience as an offensive coordinator and a combined 6 years experience as a QB coach.


(Remember, Rosen had Peyton Manning's former QB coach and OC.)

My point is in the post below:




Well, the Cardinals fired their OC mid season and replaced him with a guy who had never been an OC. In addition, their first year HC was fired at the end of the season. That tells me Rosen received zero help as a rookie.
okaydo
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71Bear said:

okaydo said:

71Bear said:

cal83dls79 said:

The big rumor here today was that the pats would or should make a move to get Rosen. The comparisons to him and Goff were soooo off the mark. But I agree with GMP even though he over uses geez
The comparisons are correct if one is looking at their respective rookie seasons. Both Goff and Rosen were awful due to substandard coaching.

Jared Goff's rookie year coaching staff had a combined 0 years experience as an offensive coordinator and a combined 1 year experience as a QB coach.

Josh Rosen's rookie year coaching staff had a combined 5 years experience as an offensive coordinator and a combined 6 years experience as a QB coach.


(Remember, Rosen had Peyton Manning's former QB coach and OC.)

My point is in the post below:




Well, the Cardinals fired their OC mid season and replaced him with a guy who had never been an OC. In addition, their first year HC was fired at the end of the season. That tells me Rosen received zero help as a rookie.

Agree with your "genius" comment upthread. My point, though, is that Rosen did get the benefit of having an experienced guy like Mike McCoy from the day he was drafted until whenever he was fired. Just like Baker Mayfield got the benefit of Hue Jackson and Todd Haley's experience before they were fired. You may say that McCoy, Jackson and Haley are terrible. But they've all had some success in the NFL as position/coordinator coaches. But my larger point is that having experienced coaches is far superior to having completely inexperienced coaches, even if the experienced coaches are bad and get fired midseason.
okaydo
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I'm really enjoying the new NFL Draft coverage


okaydo
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ducky23
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okaydo said:

I'm really enjoying the new NFL Draft coverage





The live band is um interesting.

I wasn't quite sure whether the commish was going to do an Arya Stark with bosa.
okaydo
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I don't follow the draft very closely, but I've listened to 5 draft podcasts and I follow like 300 NFL writers on Twitter...


And the Giants just selected a QB at No. 6 who I've never heard of in my life before Roger Goodell announced his name.
okaydo
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Okay, Taylor Swift is still there and they are having a discussion about her music. I don't hate Taylor Swift, it's just this is the NFL Draft. (I'm watching 4 broadcasts of the draft simultaneously, by the way. ABC, for those who don't know, offers the College Gameday perspective.)

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