ESPN Handicapper takes the Under on Cal getting to 6 wins

BearGreg
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Staff
And believes the offense will not be better - What do you say?

California Golden Bears (6)

Is Cal's offense going to be any better after losing its leading rusher and top four pass-catchers? It's hard to see how it would be. The defense will be again solid, but solid enough to win seven games and top the season win total of six with road games at Washington, Ole Miss, Oregon, Utah, Stanford and UCLA? Three of the Bears' wins last year were by three points or fewer. I'm in the under camp here.
bipolarbear
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Yeah, well, that's just like his opinion, man,
CAL4LIFE
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Cal's OC, incredibly, is still Beau Baldwin. Too bad.
Big C
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I'm in the over camp.
going4roses
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True but we gotta wait to see if there is change or not
BearSD
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How many games did this ESPN "expert" predict the Bears would win in 2018?
91Gypo
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This is about betting.

My early experiences is that any bet I made involving Cal backfired.

Lesson learned - don't bet for or against Cal.
71Bear
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BearGreg said:

And believes the offense will not be better - What do you say?

California Golden Bears (6)

Is Cal's offense going to be any better after losing its leading rusher and top four pass-catchers? It's hard to see how it would be. The defense will be again solid, but solid enough to win seven games and top the season win total of six with road games at Washington, Ole Miss, Oregon, Utah, Stanford and UCLA? Three of the Bears' wins last year were by three points or fewer. I'm in the under camp here.
Seven wins.....

Bear8
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They are placing a great deal on Away games as if that will make the difference in wins and losses. We defeated SC at the Coliseum; couple of years ago we defeated the Huskies in Seattle; I recall beating WSU in the Palouse. We have beaten the Bruins at the Rose Bowl with Jahvid Best. Before their long win streak we took care of the Cardinal both in Berkeley and Palo Alto. We beat Texas in Austin. We beat Northwestern in Evanston. We beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

The crowd may make a difference initially, but eventually the visitor learns to deal with it. I'm sad to say that Roger lost to the Joker despite the overwhelming number of fans favoring Federer. I'm still not over it. However, I was brightened by a great Cal athlete in Collin Morikawa as a newbie faced some top pros at a course he'd never played before and in only his third tournament tied for fourth.

Moral of the story: Just because you're playing away from home doesn't mean you must lose. To quote some coach in the State of Arizona - "that's why they play the game."
BearGoggles
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The article makes the mistaken assumption that losing offensive starters from last year's team is a bad thing. In the case of wr (and probably rb), I think that is a flawed assumption. On the whole, I expect the new and returning wrs to be much better then those who departed. In terms of rb, Laird was dependable but didn't have a great season. I like the upside of his replacements.
71Bear
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Bear8 said:

They are placing a great deal on Away games as if that will make the difference in wins and losses. We defeated SC at the Coliseum; couple of years ago we defeated the Huskies in Seattle; I recall beating WSU in the Palouse. We have beaten the Bruins at the Rose Bowl with Jahvid Best. Before their long win streak we took care of the Cardinal both in Berkeley and Palo Alto. We beat Texas in Austin. We beat Northwestern in Evanston. We beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

The crowd may make a difference initially, but eventually the visitor learns to deal with it. I'm sad to say that Roger lost to the Joker despite the overwhelming number of fans favoring Federer. I'm still not over it. However, I was brightened by a great Cal athlete in Collin Morikawa as a newbie faced some top pros at a course he'd never played before and in only his third tournament tied for fourth.

Moral of the story: Just because you're playing away from home doesn't mean you must lose. To quote some coach in the State of Arizona - "that's why they play the game."
This decade, Cal is 1-11 v. UW, LSJU and UCLA on the road. I suggest they will go 1-2 this year.

Three OOC wins, the aforementioned win, and wins v. WSU, OSU and ASU equals seven.
Shoreline
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I would pound the over 5.5 wins if my sportsbook didn't have it -175
Oski87
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I think UCLA takes a step back and out of the Kelly era. He is just too tired for this job and uninterested in college kids. He should be an NFL assistant.

UW is a worse team next year than this year. They lost a TON of players. Furd lost it's best weapon with it's TE graduating.

Oregon is tough. WSU is an unknown but they lost their Heisman Hopeful QB (of course, I said that last year).

Ole Miss is interesting. We could lose there. Too many weird things happen in the SEC. Hot girls, hot weather and greasy food all at an early morning start time could be too much for the bears.

Everyone else is clearly beatable. But even at a 1-2 for the Furd / UCLA and LSJU record, I think the bears will at least 8 total games.
4thGenCal
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Shoreline said:

I would pound the over 5.5 wins if my sportsbook didn't have it -175
5.5 wins is now at -150 and i pounded that line. Big "if" but if Garber stays healthy and the Dline stays intact as well, 6-7 wins is highly achievable. I also liked the under 10.5 for Michigan, over of 6.5 for USC, over 9.5 Washington. and the over 9 for Utah (9-3 is a push).
Bear19
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If the O-Line is better, the offense will be better. Simple as that.
going4roses
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True
GivemTheAxe
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BearGreg said:

And believes the offense will not be better - What do you say?

California Golden Bears (6)

Is Cal's offense going to be any better after losing its leading rusher and top four pass-catchers? It's hard to see how it would be. The defense will be again solid, but solid enough to win seven games and top the season win total of six with road games at Washington, Ole Miss, Oregon, Utah, Stanford and UCLA? Three of the Bears' wins last year were by three points or fewer. I'm in the under camp here.

I guess this expert assumes the Cal Offense will be the same "Interception Machine" it was in 2018. I don't see that happening with either Garbers or Modster as QB.
Big C
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If the QB is better, the offense will be better. Simple as that.
HungryCalBear
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Compared to last year:

- QBs: can't be worse than last year
- RBs: should improve (Laird really had an off year last year)
- WRs & TEs: hard to tell, but hard to be worse than last year
- OL: biggest unknown, but based on Greatwood's record things should improve by his 3rd year
- Coaching: same staff. adjustments made hopefully for the better
- Schedule: definitely harder, but JW's team has done well on the road

I think 6 or 7 wins. If a couple offense guys have a break out year, 8 wins.

GO BEARS!
Bear8
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71Bear said:

Bear8 said:

They are placing a great deal on Away games as if that will make the difference in wins and losses. We defeated SC at the Coliseum; couple of years ago we defeated the Huskies in Seattle; I recall beating WSU in the Palouse. We have beaten the Bruins at the Rose Bowl with Jahvid Best. Before their long win streak we took care of the Cardinal both in Berkeley and Palo Alto. We beat Texas in Austin. We beat Northwestern in Evanston. We beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

The crowd may make a difference initially, but eventually the visitor learns to deal with it. I'm sad to say that Roger lost to the Joker despite the overwhelming number of fans favoring Federer. I'm still not over it. However, I was brightened by a great Cal athlete in Collin Morikawa as a newbie faced some top pros at a course he'd never played before and in only his third tournament tied for fourth.

Moral of the story: Just because you're playing away from home doesn't mean you must lose. To quote some coach in the State of Arizona - "that's why they play the game."
This decade, Cal is 1-11 v. UW, LSJU and UCLA on the road. I suggest they will go 1-2 this year.

Three OOC wins, the aforementioned win, and wins v. WSU, OSU and ASU equals seven.


We beat UDub in Seattle in 2015 and we defeated them here in 2018. For the decade so far, we are 2-6.
Fyght4Cal
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Why can't I see this story on either my laptop or on my phone?
🎵There‚Äôs the Highland Dutch and the Lowland Dutch
The Rotterdam Dutch and Tim DeRuyter 🎶
jhbchristopher
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I concur!
71Bear
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Bear8 said:

71Bear said:

Bear8 said:

They are placing a great deal on Away games as if that will make the difference in wins and losses. We defeated SC at the Coliseum; couple of years ago we defeated the Huskies in Seattle; I recall beating WSU in the Palouse. We have beaten the Bruins at the Rose Bowl with Jahvid Best. Before their long win streak we took care of the Cardinal both in Berkeley and Palo Alto. We beat Texas in Austin. We beat Northwestern in Evanston. We beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

The crowd may make a difference initially, but eventually the visitor learns to deal with it. I'm sad to say that Roger lost to the Joker despite the overwhelming number of fans favoring Federer. I'm still not over it. However, I was brightened by a great Cal athlete in Collin Morikawa as a newbie faced some top pros at a course he'd never played before and in only his third tournament tied for fourth.

Moral of the story: Just because you're playing away from home doesn't mean you must lose. To quote some coach in the State of Arizona - "that's why they play the game."
This decade, Cal is 1-11 v. UW, LSJU and UCLA on the road. I suggest they will go 1-2 this year.

Three OOC wins, the aforementioned win, and wins v. WSU, OSU and ASU equals seven.


We beat UDub in Seattle in 2015 and we defeated them here in 2018. For the decade so far, we are 2-6.
Are you suggesting that Cal has a 25% chance of winning in September? That is the same as the current 1-3 road record. For what is worth, I think the odds of winning in Seattle are in the 15% - 25% range.
71Bear
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Fyght4Cal said:

Why can't I see this story on either my laptop or on my phone?
It is top secret, available only to those who have the six digit combination on the decoder ring. Check with Blueblood. He is the keeper of the combination.....
BearSD
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Oski87 said:

I think UCLA takes a step back and out of the Kelly era. He is just too tired for this job and uninterested in college kids. He should be an NFL assistant.
I agree with this, though Kelly may hang on at UCLA for this year and next year as well.

As you said, Chip does not seem to have the right energy level. Also, when he was at Oregon he had a strong, experienced coaching staff that was just handed over to him, he didn't have to assemble it. That's not the case at UCLA. He is not a program builder, and UCLA needs to hire an effective program builder if they're ever going to live up to their own expectations.
Uthaithani
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I have stated that Cal can win 8 games without any improvement in offense - just "stop making dumb mistakes."

I expect the offense to do just that - continue to be below-average in production but MUCH better at ball control and field position than last season. That, plus a defense that I actually see being better than last season, will get to 8 wins during the season.

I'm not at all a fan of Baldwin and really wish Wilcox had pulled the plug on him after last season. I don't expect to be any happier with him in 2019, but I still expect the Bears overall to improve. Third year under the same HC (who is just starting to get his legs under him as HC) and a program that's on an upward trajectory, improving from 7 to 8 wins isn't exactly a stretch for this team.

It may not be the prettiest 8 wins you'll ever see, and we'll still be looking up at Tedford's success at Fresno State, but it's a strong foundation.
sycasey
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Purely anecdotal, but I feel like preseason predictions tend to overrate offense and underrate defense. Defensive teams aren't exciting.
bipolarbear
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sycasey said:

Purely anecdotal, but I feel like preseason predictions tend to overrate offense and underrate defense. Defensive teams aren't exciting.
Pick sixes are exciting!
Strykur
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bipolarbear said:

sycasey said:

Purely anecdotal, but I feel like preseason predictions tend to overrate offense and underrate defense. Defensive teams aren't exciting.
Pick sixes are exciting!
So are redzone TDs, which have become a rare sight around here.
LunchTime
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1. Cal's offense was worse than nothing last year. Losing players from a unit that was a net negative doesn't cause me to think they will be worse. A group of FCS players would do better with better coaching.
2. Winning games by a slim margin is usually the sign of a good team, not a boarderline bad team. I am not sure how this metric is a negative.

Cal has the ability to be in every game this year. Cal has the ability to win the close ones. The only question is offensive side coaching. If they have a solution for constantly turning the ball over, we will do much better.
LunchTime
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sycasey said:

Purely anecdotal, but I feel like preseason predictions tend to overrate offense and underrate defense. Defensive teams aren't exciting.


I think defensive teams make the entire team more exciting.

I think the drop in interest during Dykes' era and gain in interest during the Wilcox era says a significant number of people think defensive football is exciting.
71Bear
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LunchTime said:

sycasey said:

Purely anecdotal, but I feel like preseason predictions tend to overrate offense and underrate defense. Defensive teams aren't exciting.


I think defensive teams make the entire team more exciting.

I think the drop in interest during Dykes' era and gain in interest during the Wilcox era says a significant number of people think defensive football is exciting.
What is exciting is quality football played by quality players on BOTH sides of the ball. Dykes football was boring because it was nothing more than watching the opposition run up and down the field with no effort to make any stops. There was no chance of winning meaningful games. Wilcox football is not exciting yet but has the potential of getting there.
GivemTheAxe
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71Bear said:

LunchTime said:

sycasey said:

Purely anecdotal, but I feel like preseason predictions tend to overrate offense and underrate defense. Defensive teams aren't exciting.


I think defensive teams make the entire team more exciting.

I think the drop in interest during Dykes' era and gain in interest during the Wilcox era says a significant number of people think defensive football is exciting.
What is exciting is quality football played by quality players on BOTH sides of the ball. Dykes football was boring because it was nothing more than watching the opposition run up and down the field with no effort to make any stops. There was no chance of winning meaningful games. Wilcox football is not exciting yet but has the potential of getting there.

Disagree about Wilcox football not being exciting. I felt the wins over UW and USC were very exciting.
To me both wins felt like a 2-1 win in baseball where the relief pitcher comes in with 0 outs in the bottom of the 9th and men on 2nd
and 3rd and gets 3 strikeouts to win the game.
71Bear
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GivemTheAxe said:

71Bear said:

LunchTime said:

sycasey said:

Purely anecdotal, but I feel like preseason predictions tend to overrate offense and underrate defense. Defensive teams aren't exciting.


I think defensive teams make the entire team more exciting.

I think the drop in interest during Dykes' era and gain in interest during the Wilcox era says a significant number of people think defensive football is exciting.
What is exciting is quality football played by quality players on BOTH sides of the ball. Dykes football was boring because it was nothing more than watching the opposition run up and down the field with no effort to make any stops. There was no chance of winning meaningful games. Wilcox football is not exciting yet but has the potential of getting there.

Disagree about Wilcox football not being exciting. I felt the wins over UW and USC were very exciting.
To me both wins felt like a 2-1 win in baseball where the relief pitcher comes in with 0 outs in the bottom of the 9th and men on 2nd
and 3rd and gets 3 strikeouts to win the game.
I agree. To clarify...

On the offensive side of the ball, Wilcox football is not exciting yet but has the potential of getting there.
sycasey
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I'll say this: defensive football CAN be exciting, but it doesn't tend to get the notice of national publications unless you're already a "name" program. They are more likely to notice the offensive shows among the second and third tier.
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