For the BI Illuminati

4,910 Views | 34 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by bear2034
Blueblood
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Here's a muse for real Bear fan consideration that may evoke some ire at me but at least does not immediately motivate one to cry, or does it?

It should be noted that Cal has returned to the "Others with votes" category of the AP rankings. Although not ranked in the Top 25, the sturdy Golden Bears are ranked at #33. This ain't too bad for end of regular season play.

Of course, the Pac-12 does have teams ranked in the AP Top 25. They are Utah at a lofty #5, Oregon at a foreboding #13, and u$C creeping in at #24. All of these teams have unfortunately beaten Cal. Thus, these rankings over Cal are clearly deserved.

Okay, get your cabbages or oranges or whatever ready to throw. I want to point out that two MWC teams also made the AP Top 25. Air Force at #25 and Boise State at a very respectable #19.

I was just thinking wouldn't Cal possibly be ranked in the Top 25 if the Bears played in the MWC?

I mean, surely the more avid Cal-centrists would agree that the Bears would've beaten the Falcons and maybe even the Broncos in MWC play. Isn't this so? If so, then Cal would be easily seen to be placed into the Top 25.

Oh, the anguish of a missed opportunity! I think that I may cry again.

Cal84
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As I have told you multiple times before, there is zero chance Cal goes to the MWC because the loss of TV revenues would necessitate us eliminating all the non-revenue sports teams excepting women's soccer and field hockey. The Cal AD wouldn't reduce the number of non-revenue sports to do better in P5 football. What makes you think they'd eliminate non-revenue sports to do well in G5 football?

I will explain this reality to you in a different way. Think of living in an expensive SF apartment in the Marina. You make good money working in the tech industry. But you save no money, and in fact are bleeding money because you insist on having an expensive boat which is moored in Tiberon. You are completely unsatisfied with your social life because you can't compete with your yuppie brethren in SF as you have no car, no money and it's hard to get chicks out to Tiberon to see your boat. So you decide to move to Vallejo. But with no car and the ferry slow as hell, you get fired from your job. You have to sell your prized boat and you now live off welfare and unemployment benefits. Chicks in SF still don't return your calls. The ones in Vallejo do. Occasionally. This is your MWC plan. It sucks.
72CalBear
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I would suggest the Ivy League. Oh well. If Cal football leaves the P12 we also leave that talent pool. Skip to the MW or whatever conference, and we get that talent base. Thinking that our current Cal Bears could simply shift to another conference intact is wacky. But, tis the season!!
Blueblood
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72CalBear said:

I would suggest the Ivy League. [..that would be "wacky". The Ivy is on the other side of the country. (think of the travel costs!) Oh Well.] Oh well. If Cal football leaves the P12 we also leave that talent pool. Skip to the MW or whatever conference, and we get that talent base. [Most likely, but you still have Cal's academic reputation drawing the recent type of ** and *** recruits like Wilcox has been recently (that is, no to big of a change). Thinking that our current Cal Bears could simply shift to another conference intact is wacky. [I don't see it that way because Ihave more confidence than you that Cal will run the school much like it does now where the AD doesn't have that much impact.] But, tis the season!! [I thought of such move way before this season.]
calumnus
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Utah would not be where they are now with an outside chance at a National Championship if they were still in the MWC.
1CalFan
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Blueblood said:

Here's a muse for real Bear fan consideration that may evoke some ire at me but at least does not immediately motivate one to cry, or does it?

It should be noted that Cal has returned to the "Others with votes" category of the AP rankings. Although not ranked in the Top 25, the sturdy Golden Bears are ranked at #33. This ain't too bad for end of regular season play.

Of course, the Pac-12 does have teams ranked in the AP Top 25. They are Utah at a lofty #5, Oregon at a foreboding #13, and u$C creeping in at #24. All of these teams have unfortunately beaten Cal. Thus, these rankings over Cal are clearly deserved.

Okay, get your cabbages or oranges or whatever ready to throw. I want to point out that two MWC teams also made the AP Top 25. Air Force at #25 and Boise State at a very respectable #19.

I was just thinking wouldn't Cal possibly be ranked in the Top 25 if the Bears played in the MWC?

I mean, surely the more avid Cal-centrists would agree that the Bears would've beaten the Falcons and maybe even the Broncos in MWC play. Isn't this so? If so, then Cal would be easily seen to be placed into the Top 25.

Oh, the anguish of a missed opportunity! I think that I may cry again.


Blue, a question which answer I'm too lazy to look up, what was the strength of schedule of Air Force and Boise State? I ask this because the Chris Petersen's Washington team ended the year 4 W and 5 L in Pac-12 games.But Chris Petersen's teams at Boise State were consistently top 20. So I wonder did Chris Petersen lose his ability to coach or is it easier to win 8 conference games in the MWC than in the Pac-12? I'm thinking the Pac-12 is more difficult. By the way, I enjoy most of your posts.
GivemTheAxe
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Blueblood said:

72CalBear said:

I would suggest the Ivy League. [..that would be "wacky". The Ivy is on the other side of the country. (think of the travel costs!) Oh Well.] Oh well. If Cal football leaves the P12 we also leave that talent pool. Skip to the MW or whatever conference, and we get that talent base. [Most likely, but you still have Cal's academic reputation drawing the recent type of ** and *** recruits like Wilcox has been recently (that is, no to big of a change). Thinking that our current Cal Bears could simply shift to another conference intact is wacky. [I don't see it that way because Ihave more confidence than you that Cal will run the school much like it does now where the AD doesn't have that much impact.] But, tis the season!! [I thought of such move way before this season.]



"Once more into the MWC breach, Dear Blueblood", Tony Shakespeare

You have been espousing the move to MWC for some time now.

As is so well pointed out by other posters:
1. Cal could not recruit at its current levels if Cal were in the MWC. Forget the idea that the recruits would still come to Cal for the education. Cal currently poached from big academic name institutions who are not one of the P5 schools. Because we can offer Big Time football and Big Time academics.

2. Cal could not get the same level of game day experience and competition for its fans without a P5 school. USC UCLA Stanford UW et al. Would have no reason to schedule games with Cal.

3. TV money would dry up

5. Fan attendance would dry up.

6. Eventually we would default on payments for CMS retrofit.

Moving to MWC would be the beginning of the end for Cal football as we know it.
bear2034
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Cal84 said:

As I have told you multiple times before, there is zero chance Cal goes to the MWC because the loss of TV revenues would necessitate us eliminating all the non-revenue sports teams excepting women's soccer and field hockey. The Cal AD wouldn't reduce the number of non-revenue sports to do better in P5 football. What makes you think they'd eliminate non-revenue sports to do well in G5 football?

I will explain this reality to you in a different way. Think of living in an expensive SF apartment in the Marina. You make good money working in the tech industry. But you save no money, and in fact are bleeding money because you insist on having an expensive boat which is moored in Tiberon. You are completely unsatisfied with your social life because you can't compete with your yuppie brethren in SF as you have no car, no money and it's hard to get chicks out to Tiberon to see your boat. So you decide to move to Vallejo. But with no car and the ferry slow as hell, you get fired from your job. You have to sell your prized boat and you now live off welfare and unemployment benefits. Chicks in SF still don't return your calls. The ones in Vallejo do. Occasionally. This is your MWC plan. It sucks.

Forget the MWC just for a second, in your story, you're still getting chicks from Vallejo. You're not going to get welfare, unemployment is cool for a little while. Then you get back on your feet and start applying for jobs in Oakland and go to Cal basketball games after work.
Cal84
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In this allegorical retelling of Cal's move to the MWC, the Vallejo chicks represent the slightly higher success rate achieved in the MWC as opposed to the complete strikeout he had with Marina chicks (P12). Once his unemployment benefits run out, he should be welfare eligible. That lower level of income represents his MWC TV revenues. Again, as opposed to his tech job wages (P12 TV revenue). His prized boat is of course the stand-in for non-revenue sports, the thing he won't give up but which he torches once he moves to MWC-land.

In your version, applying to jobs in Oakland would be equivalent to applying to re-enter the P12 conference. Applying to jobs in Oakland is a good strategy in r/l. Applying to re-enter the P12 after you voluntarily left it has zero chance of success. Not equivalent even in a allegorical sense.
Pigskin Pete
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LOL at people continuing to take the bait. Illuminati indeed.

Blueblood
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Pigskin Pete said:

LOL at people continuing to take the bait. Illuminati indeed.


There are a lot of Tunas swimming around here that need constant reassurance that they aren't the only ones in the ocean.
Blueblood
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calumnus said:

Utah would not be where they are now with an outside chance at a National Championship if they were still in the MWC.
Funny, Cal is where they are now without any outside chance at a National Championship and the Bears never were in the MWC. So, what's he purpose of your post with respect to Cal?
Cal84
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>LOL at people continuing to take the bait. Illuminati indeed.

LOL at the joyless troll who's life is so unsuccessful that he feels offended when others have some giggles over a long running BI storyline.
STEAKKNIVES4LIFE
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Pigskin Pete said:

LOL at people continuing to take the bait. Illuminati indeed.


Indeed.

bearister
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Jimi Hendrix once wrote about Cal moving to MWC:

Well she's walking through the clouds
With a circus mind
That's running wild
Butterflies and zebras and moonbeams
And fairly tales


Best cover:


Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
FloriDreaming
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calumnus said:

Utah would not be where they are now with an outside chance at a National Championship if they were still in the MWC.
Actually Utah has been in the NC conversation before. When they were in the MWC.
Though Utah's revenue has undoubtedly gone up thanks to the move.
Blueblood
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Uthaithani said:

calumnus said:

Utah would not be where they are now with an outside chance at a National Championship if they were still in the MWC.
Actually Utah has been in the NC conversation before. When they were in the MWC.
Though Utah's revenue has undoubtedly gone up thanks to the move.
Good observation...too bad though....money isn't helping and hasn't help Cal football over the last 60 years.
Blueblood
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Cal84 said:

>LOL at people continuing to take the bait. Illuminati indeed.

LOL at the joyless troll who's life is so unsuccessful that he feels offended when others have some giggles over a long running BI storyline.
So you admit you like to laugh (get joy) at unsuccessful people...What you post Mr. Sour Grapes, doesn't mean much unless we understand what you consider successful or "unsuccessful" as it were....oh I am going to cry!....

Cal84
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>So you admit you like to laugh (get joy) at unsuccessful people...What you post Mr. Sour Grapes, doesn't mean much unless we understand what you consider successful or "unsuccessful" as it were....oh I am going to cry!....

Schadenfreude is probably the favorite descriptive noun known to this board. And yes, like pretty much everyone else here, I do find it appealing at times. Don't fret too much though, because your lack of success with your MWC voyage idea does not invoke schadenfreude for me per se. I'm not above writing a pithy little story about it though. But Oskirules and I were giggling at the story, not so much at your lack of success. I tell you what though, from now on when you bring up your MWC voyage idea, I will just refer to it as the "Great Migration To Vallejo". Or maybe just "Vallejo". "Or maybe Onward HO! Vallejo!" That has a certain ring to it.... (*)

(*) Footnote - Although I use Vallejo liberally to mock a certain destination, this should not be taken to impugn that city. I actually have relatives that live there. And if you bought property there right after they declared bankruptcy, you made a f8ck ton of money. So there's that.

Blueblood
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Cal84 said:



Schadenfreude is probably the favorite descriptive noun known to this board. [You don't say!]And yes, like pretty much everyone else here, I do find it appealing at times. [Oh, you mean, mean person. You're like aUNbear89 or chazzed.]Don't fret too much though [You mean don't cry?], because your lack of success with your MWC voyage idea does not invoke schadenfreude for me per se. [Uh, oh contraire, I see it differently... I think with you here in this thread I'm pretty successful.] I'm not above writing a pithy little story about it though. But Oskirules and I were giggling at the story, not so much at your lack of success. [Oh, sorry, at what then?] I tell you what though, from now on when you bring up your MWC voyage idea, I will just refer to it as the "Great Migration To Vallejo". Or maybe just "Vallejo". "Or maybe Onward HO! Vallejo!" That has a certain ring to it.... (*) [What a great idea, but may I make better suggested references? How about "The Great Vallejo Stampede" or "The Good, the Bad and the Vallejo!"]



Cal84
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>because your lack of success with your MWC voyage idea does not invoke schadenfreude for me per se. [Uh, oh contraire, I see it differently... I think with you here in this thread I'm pretty successful.]

I think you are defining your "success" differently than I am. You feel floating the MWC idea is successful as long as it gets people to respond. And people are free to set their own goals in life, so if that low hurdle is success for you, YOU can consider yourself successful.

>I'm not above writing a pithy little story about it though. But Oskirules and I were giggling at the story, not so much at your lack of success. [Oh, sorry, at what then?]

Your lack of success at assembling a coherent argument for why Cal should go Vallejo. But as I said, we weren't even giggling at that. No, there wasn't any schadenfreude in your case. Just having some mirth regarding the inherent contradictions of some lifestyles in the Bay Area at the early part of the 21st century. Money and no happiness, less money and still no happiness. You had to be there.
Blueblood
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>because your lack of success with your MWC voyage idea does not invoke schadenfreude for me per se. [Uh, oh contraire, I see it differently... I think with you here in this thread I'm pretty successful.]

I think you are defining your "success" differently than I am. [No s#!% Jose'] You feel floating the MWC idea is successful as long as it gets people to respond. [Yes, like you did. ..thank you for making me successful!] And people are free to set their own goals in life [You don't saydo go on. You're on roll!], so if that low hurdle is success for you, YOU can consider yourself successful.[ Oh boy, I was hoping that you would say so!]

>I'm not above writing a pithy little story about it though. But Oskirules and I were giggling at the story, not so much at your lack of success. [Oh, sorry, at what then?]

Your lack of success at assembling a coherent argument for why Cal should go Vallejo. [Well try this on for size. Cal hasn't done s#!t in whatever conference that the Bears have played in for 60 years. No Rose Bowl or National Championships, so why worry about them unless in a conference that might allow such equivalent success? Rig the system like the Southern teams do.] But as I said, we weren't even giggling at that. No, there wasn't any schadenfreude in your case. [Oh thank goodness!] Just having some mirth regarding the inherent contradictions of some lifestyles in the Bay Area at the early part of the 21st century. Money and no happiness, less money and still no happiness. You had to be there.[ I'll take your word for itI'm glad that I wasn't, but I now feel sorry for you that you were.]
Cal84
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>Your lack of success at assembling a coherent argument for why Cal should go Vallejo. [Well try this on for size. Cal hasn't done s#!t in whatever conference that the Bears have played in for 60 years. No Rose Bowl or National Championships, so why worry about them unless in a conference that might allow such equivalent success?

Sorry bub, that's not a coherent argument, because as I have pointed out you're not going to be able to move to Vallejo unless you sell your Tiberon boat.

Blueblood
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Cal84 said:

>Your lack of success at assembling a coherent argument for why Cal should go Vallejo. [Well try this on for size. Cal hasn't done s#!t in whatever conference that the Bears have played in for 60 years. No Rose Bowl or National Championships, so why worry about them unless in a conference that might allow such equivalent success?

Sorry bub, that's not a coherent argument, because as I have pointed out you're not going to be able to move to Vallejo unless you sell your Tiberon boat.


Note, I set forth "a conference that might allow such equivalent success." That conference can take any form, .i.e., another existing conference, a reformed existing conference, or an altogether newly created conference. You are like Cal's administration...narrow minded. Such seems logical and consistent with what I've posited on this board. You're too comfortible with Cal being the perennial whipping boy of the confernece.
Cal84
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>Note, I set forth "a conference that might allow such equivalent success." That conference can take any form, .i.e., another existing conference, a reformed existing conference, or an altogether newly created conference.

No, you said MWC.And in particular in this very thread you argued that MWC could provide such success.

Since you have trouble understanding the issues involved I will spell it out in detail for you.

Calvin (an allegorical person representing (Cal Athletics, its players, fans, etc.) lives in San Francisco (an allegorical place representing the P12). San Francisco is expensive and super competitive but its jobs pay really well (high TV revenue payouts). But because Calvin spends too much money on his boat (non-revenue sports) he strikes out with chicks in SF (no football conference championships). YOU, a part of Calvin, in particular his d1k, believe he should move to Vallejo (MWC) because there's less competition there. And hence you will get more action with the chicks there. But Calvin's decisions are made by his brain (aka Cal Athletics administration). Calvin's brain couldn't care less about you (the d1khead), and only cares about maintaining the boat. They will never move away from SF because they would lose their income and hence the boat.

You (the d1k) lack a coherent argument that will persuade the brain (Cal Athletics administration). Now look, I'm actually relatively sympathetic to your plight, because on a whole host of issues I too think the brain is acting foolishly. But all your arguments that Cal could recruit as much talent in the MWC, or that the MWC could actually get a place in the CFP, or your latest, that Cal could somehow form a new conference - all of them are fatally flawed. Because even if they were true - No money, no boat, no way.
Blueblood
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Cal84 said:

>Note, I set forth "a conference that might allow such equivalent success." That conference can take any form, .i.e., another existing conference, a reformed existing conference, or an altogether newly created conference.

No, you said MWC.And in particular in this very thread you argued that MWC could provide such success.

Since you have trouble understanding the issues involved I will spell it out in detail for you.

Calvin (an allegorical person representing (Cal Athletics, its players, fans, etc.) lives in San Francisco (an allegorical place representing the P12). San Francisco is expensive and super competitive but its jobs pay really well (high TV revenue payouts). But because Calvin spends too much money on his boat (non-revenue sports) he strikes out with chicks in SF (no football conference championships). YOU, a part of Calvin, in particular his d1k, believe he should move to Vallejo (MWC) because there's less competition there. And hence you will get more action with the chicks there. But Calvin's decisions are made by his brain (aka Cal Athletics administration). Calvin's brain couldn't care less about you (the d1khead), and only cares about maintaining the boat. They will never move away from SF because they would lose their income and hence the boat.

You (the d1k) lack a coherent argument that will persuade the brain (Cal Athletics administration). Now look, I'm actually relatively sympathetic to your plight, because on a whole host of issues I too think the brain is acting foolishly. But all your arguments that Cal could recruit as much talent in the MWC, or that the MWC could actually get a place in the CFP, or your latest, that Cal could somehow form a new conference - all of them are fatally flawed. Because even if they were true - No money, no boat, no way.
Money ain't everything in Vallejo. Of course, I'm speaking in purely an allegorical sense.
Blueblood
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I live in Vallejo
Cal84's uncle

Oh, don't be concerned that you don't understand Cal84's story about love in Vallejo.
We're just sitting waiting and passing the time to see which bowl Cal will play in over
this Christmas holidays.


KenBurnski
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How many wins next year, BB? And can you please include the crying picture in your reply?
Blueblood
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KenBurnski said:

How many wins next year, BB? And can you please include the crying picture in your reply?

Give me a few minutes to stop
crying and wipe my tears away,
so I can answer your question.

Okay, I feel much better now.


Well, of course, Cal will start the season as usual with a sacrificial game
to the football gods against Cal Poly and will add frosting on the cake with
a subsequent win over UNLV.

The TCU game is going to be a doozy as the Horned Frogs have shown that
they are no pushover with close losses against ranked teams like #25 OSU,
#7 Baylor, and #6 Oklahoma. So, because TCU has shown that its offense can
put points on the board against the best, I think this game will be a Cal loss. (2-1)

Predicting how well Cal will do in conference has shown to be tough because
of weekly key injuries.

Assuming UDub and u$C make upgraded headcoaching picks, I see a couple
of Cal losses again. (2-3)

I would like to say Cal will beat OsU and Wazzu. Of course this depends upon
how good their replacement QBs are. These games will be played in Pullman
and Corvallis, so I'm going with a split-the-difference predictions. (3-4)

I think Oregon, Utah, and ASU, on their home turf, will all be losses for the Bears. (3-7)

However, Cal should again beat the furds and ucla. (5-7)

So, oh hum, I'm guessing Cal will have a 5-7 season with the possibility of
doing better with surprise wins against Wazzu in Pullman, TCU in Berkeley,
and/or ASU in Tempe.

So Cal's victories range from 5 to 8 wins.
heartofthebear
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Blueblood said:

Here's a muse for real Bear fan consideration that may evoke some ire at me but at least does not immediately motivate one to cry, or does it?

It should be noted that Cal has returned to the "Others with votes" category of the AP rankings. Although not ranked in the Top 25, the sturdy Golden Bears are ranked at #33. This ain't too bad for end of regular season play.

Of course, the Pac-12 does have teams ranked in the AP Top 25. They are Utah at a lofty #5, Oregon at a foreboding #13, and u$C creeping in at #24. All of these teams have unfortunately beaten Cal. Thus, these rankings over Cal are clearly deserved.

Okay, get your cabbages or oranges or whatever ready to throw. I want to point out that two MWC teams also made the AP Top 25. Air Force at #25 and Boise State at a very respectable #19.

I was just thinking wouldn't Cal possibly be ranked in the Top 25 if the Bears played in the MWC?

I mean, surely the more avid Cal-centrists would agree that the Bears would've beaten the Falcons and maybe even the Broncos in MWC play. Isn't this so? If so, then Cal would be easily seen to be placed into the Top 25.

Oh, the anguish of a missed opportunity! I think that I may cry again.


Strength of schedule matters.
See my post in the Utah vs. Oregon thread.
The reason Boise gets ranked is because Boise continually schedules top ranked teams for their OOC games and they frequently beat them. Cal could do the same except they would not beat them and thus they would not be ranked either. I will have to look into Air Force but I know that often SDS ends up ranked for a while until they actually have to play somebody other than a pac-12 also ran.
heartofthebear
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Blueblood said:

KenBurnski said:

How many wins next year, BB? And can you please include the crying picture in your reply?

Give me a few minutes to stop
crying and wipe my tears away,
so I can answer your question.

Okay, I feel much better now.


Well, of course, Cal will start the season as usual with a sacrificial game
to the football gods against Cal Poly and will add frosting on the cake with
a subsequent win over UNLV.

The TCU game is going to be a doozy as the Horned Frogs have shown that
they are no pushover with close losses against ranked teams like #25 OSU,
#7 Baylor, and #6 Oklahoma. So, because TCU has shown that its offense can
put points on the board against the best, I think this game will be a Cal loss. (2-1)

Predicting how well Cal will do in conference has shown to be tough because
of weekly key injuries.

Assuming UDub and u$C make upgraded headcoaching picks, I see a couple
of Cal losses again. (2-3)

I would like to say Cal will beat OsU and Wazzu. Of course this depends upon
how good their replacement QBs are. These games will be played in Pullman
and Corvallis, so I'm going with a split-the-difference predictions. (3-4)

I think Oregon, Utah, and ASU, on their home turf, will all be losses for the Bears. (3-7)

However, Cal should again beat the furds and ucla. (5-7)

So, oh hum, I'm guessing Cal will have a 5-7 season with the possibility of
doing better with surprise wins against Wazzu in Pullman, TCU in Berkeley,
and/or ASU in Tempe.

So Cal's victories range from 5 to 8 wins.
I would recommend using my method for preseason predictions.
  • Assess the roster strength of each team. This is based on # of starters returning and # of talented players emerging + any recruiting strengths.
  • I look at each unit and see if there will be any unit weaknesses based on above, final signing day recruits, transfers and early exits to the NFL and/or medical retirements.
  • That is why I generally don't make early claims until February.
  • I then reassess in August based on the health of each team going into the season.
  • I then factor in home and away and coaching strength. For example, Utah has less talent than many teams but is coached better. UCLA is probably the opposite.

Based on these factors, I sense that Furd and UCLA will be much harder to win next year but ASU and Utah should be much easier. I agree that USC will still be a loss but I think we easily beat both WSU and OSU on the road and lose to Oregon at home. Washington is a ? at this point. I agree with your OOC assessment. So that would mean that Cal is at 6 or 7 wins again. But I want to wait until at least February to formally make an assessment.

If my above assessment is true, it may frustrate some fans who want an upward trajectory of wins vs. losses. However, should Cal go to a bowl for a 3rd straight year, it will impress me and will show enough consistency and stability in the program to create an upward trend in recruiting talent. Once we start recruiting better, it will create a positive feedback loop between wins during the season and recruiting talent during the off-season to the point where we eventually start fighting for conference championships every season as did JT from 2004-2007.
Blueblood
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heartofthebear said:

Blueblood said:

KenBurnski said:

How many wins next year, BB? And can you please include the crying picture in your reply?

Well, of course, Cal will start the season as usual with a sacrificial game
to the football gods against Cal Poly and will add frosting on the cake with
a subsequent win over UNLV.

The TCU game is going to be a doozy as the Horned Frogs have shown that
they are no pushover with close losses against ranked teams like #25 OSU,
#7 Baylor, and #6 Oklahoma. So, because TCU has shown that its offense can
put points on the board against the best, I think this game will be a Cal loss. (2-1)

Predicting how well Cal will do in conference has shown to be tough because
of weekly key injuries.

Assuming UDub and u$C make upgraded headcoaching picks, I see a couple
of Cal losses again. (2-3)

I would like to say Cal will beat OsU and Wazzu. Of course this depends upon
how good their replacement QBs are. These games will be played in Pullman
and Corvallis, so I'm going with a split-the-difference predictions. (3-4)

I think Oregon, Utah, and ASU, on their home turf, will all be losses for the Bears. (3-7)

However, Cal should again beat the furds and ucla. (5-7)

So, oh hum, I'm guessing Cal will have a 5-7 season with the possibility of
doing better with surprise wins against Wazzu in Pullman, TCU in Berkeley,
and/or ASU in Tempe.

So Cal's victories range from 5 to 8 wins.
I would recommend using my method for preseason predictions.
  • Assess the roster strength of each team. This is based on # of starters returning and # of talented players emerging + any recruiting strengths.
  • I look at each unit and see if there will be any unit weaknesses based on above, final signing day recruits, transfers and early exits to the NFL and/or medical retirements.
  • That is why I generally don't make early claims until February.
  • I then reassess in August based on the health of each team going into the season.
  • I then factor in home and away and coaching strength. For example, Utah has less talent than many teams but is coached better. UCLA is probably the opposite.

Based on these factors, I sense that Furd and UCLA will be much harder to win next year but ASU and Utah should be much easier. I agree that USC will still be a loss but I think we easily beat both WSU and OSU on the road and lose to Oregon at home. Washington is a ? at this point. I agree with your OOC assessment. So that would mean that Cal is at 6 or 7 wins again. But I want to wait until at least February to formally make an assessment.

If my above assessment is true, it may frustrate some fans who want an upward trajectory of wins vs. losses. However, should Cal go to a bowl for a 3rd straight year, it will impress me and will show enough consistency and stability in the program to create an upward trend in recruiting talent. Once we start recruiting better, it will create a positive feedback loop between wins during the season and recruiting talent during the off-season to the point where we eventually start fighting for conference championships every season as did JT from 2004-2007.


Unlike Cal, other Pac-12 teams do something to better their situations.

South Carolina quarterback Jake Bentley says he's headed to Utah for his final college season.
The 6-foot-4, 220-pound Bentley said on social media Monday he has committed to the Utes. He will graduate from South Carolina this week, meaning he will be immediately eligible to play. Bentley was a three-year starter for the Gamecocks...
philly1121
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Blueblood said:

Uthaithani said:

calumnus said:

Utah would not be where they are now with an outside chance at a National Championship if they were still in the MWC.
Actually Utah has been in the NC conversation before. When they were in the MWC.
Though Utah's revenue has undoubtedly gone up thanks to the move.
Good observation...too bad though....money isn't helping and hasn't help Cal football over the last 60 years.

Yeah, I was just going to say - there must be some kind of magic we're missing by staying in the P12. There's all this money that is to be had which we aren't earning. There's all these recruits to come to our school - which are deciding not to come. There's all this stadium debt that we can pay off with said revenues that aren't coming in.

I guess there are varying definitions of "dry" and "drying up" with respect to the P12 and the MWC.

Oh - and is it too early to get my gripe on with respect to our Redbox Bowl invite?
Pigskin Pete
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philly1121 said:


Oh - and is it too early to get my gripe on with respect to our Redbox Bowl invite?
Fire away
Blueblood
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Pigskin Pete said:

philly1121 said:


Oh - and is it too early to get my gripe on with respect to our Redbox Bowl invite?
Fire away

It's never too early!
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