Think I can make so money this year.CalFan777 said:
13. Oregon
15. USC
24. Washington
31. Utah
36. TCU
40. Arizona St.
47. Washington St.
48. Stanford
52. CALIFORNIA
60. UCLA
75. Oregon St.
121. UNLV
Cal Poly is not included. Oregon and Washington are projected to have Top 10 defenses. USC is projected to have a Top 10 offense. If Vegas uses a similar system, I assume they do, the over-under will probably be set at 4-5 wins for us.
Way low. Others will put us in their top 25s. But this is good: Keeps us hungry and keeps our opponents overconfident.I Bear said:
Seems kinda low for us
He starts with last year's ratings and adjusts them for returning production. Then he adjusts for recruiting and performance in earlier years. He rated us 74th out of 130 D1 teams at the end of last year: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28497018/final-sp+-rankings-2019-college-football-season79 Bear said:
This guy's methodology is very suspect. First of all he talks about all the tweaks he has made over the years, which means of course that he really is just spitballing on this whole thing. In addition, he doesn't tell us how we did last year other than the first five weeks of the season. That tells me he didn't have a very good year.
The ratings do not take into account injuries. Experience is taken into account by the projections in the OP because returning snaps are a major part of the ratings. He keeps tweaking his formula, and has never released it fully, but has given broad overviews like this: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/sp/overalloff/2018Cal89 said:
Not sure if he factors-in experience and injuries... Stanford began 2019 as the least experienced team in the Pac-12, 118th in FBS, according to Steele. Then with the many injuries during the season...
They of course have recruited well, the top 25% of the conference (average stars). Really curious to see how they respond in 2020.
I don't know you at all. But I will come to this conclusion. You manage your own investment / financial portfolio and future and don't rely on some "guru" or firm that supposedly knows it all at a 5% fee.Cal84 said:
>I do not think his rating is very accurate for us last year, but he does have a history of beating Vegas, which means his system is very good, as far as predictive college football systems go.
If this guy has a proven history of beating Vegas, why would he be publicizing his methodology? Rather than alerting others about what works (and thus reducing the effectiveness of his methods), he should just be silent and rake in money. This is the contraindicator for most touts.
None of that is surprising.CalFan777 said:
Preseason FPI is out: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28708116/2020-preseason-college-football-fpi-breakdown
13. USC
14. Oregon
24. Utah
28. Stanford
29. Washington
30. California
32. TCU
41. Arizona St.
49. UCLA
54. Washington St.
67. Oregon St.
117. UNLV
CalFan777 said:
Have you looked at UCLA's schedule this year? I think the 49th best team, if that is accurate, still would get a bowl.