One thought be discussed is delaying football until spring 2021. Obviously, there are a ton of issues that would have to be addressed if this moved from an idea to reality; however, the consequences of not having a football season this fall are so serious that schools are beginning to look for creative solutions.

NFL Draft. Competing with other sports, including XFL. Having 2 seasons in 1 year.

It's too complicated.

71Bear said:

---

One thought be discussed is delaying football until spring 2021. Obviously, there are a ton of issues that would have to be addressed if this moved from an idea to reality; however, the consequences of not having a football season this fall are so serious that schools are beginning to look for creative solutions.

---

in college it is being considered. Most of the country needs to be off lockdown for college football to happen as the Power 5 have agreed to make the decision jointly.

okaydo said:

---

NFL Draft. Competing with other sports, including XFL. Having 2 seasons in 1 year.

It's too complicated.

---

The draft is certainly an issue. The thinking is that highly skilled players who anticipate a first round assessment may opt out. Otherwise, players will choose to play.

XFL? What is that? Yawn.

Two seasons in one year? Nope. One season in each of the next two academic years.

It is definitely complicated. No question about that...

However, given the options college athletics faces if the season is cancelled, there is a lot of brainstorming currently happening at all levels and nothing is being ruled out at this point.

We could have a shortened upcoming season starting in either late Fall, Winter or Spring, with no or limited live spectators, then go back to normal in Fall '21.

Cal88 said:

---

We could have a shortened upcoming season starting in either late Fall, Winter or Spring, with no or limited live spectators, then go back to normal in Fall '21.

---

No fans means no revenue. This would be devastating to schools. the bottom line is social distancing is our only weapon until we have either a vaccine or a quick accurate test. F-ing crazy though that we will have to go thru a covid screen, a la metal detector now, just to be in a group.

Cal88 said:

---

You would have TV revenues, aren't those bigger than gate receipts?

As well, sports occupy a very important space in the American cultural picture, and can serve as an important morale booster in what will be an economically devastated country by the end of Summer.

This is the picture we're looking at right now, barely into the beginning of this economic crisis:

Earlier last month there was a strong social impetus to cancel sports. I thought the cancellation was predictable, but it came as a shock to most. This sent a strong message and helped change the mindset of the public, helping shift the public mood into crisis mode.

For the same reasons, I think we will see the same drive by the end of Summer applied in the opposite direction, in an attempt to restore some level of cultural continuity and sense of normalcy through sports.

Restoring football in the Fall, even in a truncated form, will serve as a strong morale booster to the nation in the midst of a devastating twin health and economic crisis. The former component will wane by September, but the latter will be more difficult to reverse given that we're looking at a protracted lockdown that will extend through Spring and early Summer. Reinstating football will be a powerful cultural tool to restore normalcy and help set the mindset for the recovery, that's why I think a lot of effort will be put in having it back into some form next Fall or Winter.

---

Good analysis, 88. However, the wild card is what is done in terms of social distancing (I hate that term) in the interim. The red states that are the most resistant to taking strong measures are also the states that have the largest CFB fan base (AL, TX, FL, etc.). As a consequence, the curve may still be rising there while it is more under control in places like CA, NY, WA, etc.). If that is the case, it may be difficult to re-start football on time.

What does it really matter if a few players get ill, or die. As entitled fan, we WILL have our entertainment.

I think that after this month there is going to be significant pressure to change course. Right now you have this phenomena where the public health officials are driving the entire train. I give that about another month (or at the outside 2). Eventually, however, other voices are going to be heard. But if there is no treatment nor vacine I can't see how the nation can sustain essentially cutting GDP in half (or more). Understand what that means - Germany's GDP dropped by about 60% from 1939 to 1946. We are talking the equivalent of being on the losing side of total war.

That doesn't mean let 2 million die but there is going to be pressure to really ask about the mid and end game a lot more than what is presently going on with just the public health guys in charge.

I honestly believe our next normal season will be in 2022.

CalFan777 posted the link below in another thread

https://watchstadium.com/spring-football-eight-game-season-ads-ponder-contingency-plans-04-01-2020/

The article discusses four choices:

1. College football's 12-game regular season divided over the fall and spring semesters.

The College Football Playoff semifinals and title game held in May or even June.

2. A nine-game regular season.

3. Universities allowing student-athletes but not the entire student body back on campus to participate in games played in empty stadiums.

4. Spring football with the CFP and surviving bowl games played in May or June.

socaltownie said:

---

I think that after this month there is going to be significant pressure to change course. Right now you have this phenomena where the public health officials are driving the entire train. I give that about another month (or at the outside 2). Eventually, however, other voices are going to be heard. But if there is no treatment nor vacine I can't see how the nation can sustain essentially cutting GDP in half (or more). Understand what that means - Germany's GDP dropped by about 60% from 1939 to 1946. We are talking the equivalent of being on the losing side of total war.

That doesn't mean let 2 million die but there is going to be pressure to really ask about the mid and end game a lot more than what is presently going on with just the public health guys in charge.

---

We'll have to see how Sweden does over the next 8 to 10 weeks. They're letting the thing run its course without much social control. Not that their results will have much significance to us, though. A homogeneous country of, what, 10 million versus a heterogeneous one of 330+ million. Totally different health care infrastructure and capacity relative to population served, different economics etc. etc. Still, their experiment will be interesting. One of their top public health officials was interviewed by the Corriere della Sera the other day, and he was absolutely bludgeoning in describing their approach. He was asked several times in several different ways about the humaneness of the Swedish approach, and every time he basically said they're taking some protective measures for the more at-risk groups and for the rest, oh well.

I think Wefald is basically correct. Which means no fall football, since we aren't likely to get a vaccine by then. The problem with the "play in empty stadiums" or similar plans is that it happens in a situation when you are acknowledging that the virus is still active in society. And so while the transmission to athletes is low, it is still there. And that means eventually, maybe by game 5, someone will test positive. And then what do you do? Does that team forfeit its next two games? Does the team it just played have to be quarantined and forfeit its next two games? Plus the entire spectre of "the virus is still here so it's not safe for students/audience to sit next to each other, but let's have the unpaid athletes engage in sustained physical contact because we need the TV revenues" is just way too damning.

Cal84 said:

---

I think Wefald is basically correct. Which means no fall football, since we aren't likely to get a vaccine by then. The problem with the "play in empty stadiums" or similar plans is that it happens in a situation when you are acknowledging that the virus is still active in society. And so while the transmission to athletes is low, it is still there. And that means eventually, maybe by game 5, someone will test positive. And then what do you do? Does that team forfeit its next two games? Does the team it just played have to be quarantined and forfeit its next two games? Plus the entire spectre of "the virus is still here so it's not safe for students/audience to sit next to each other, but let's have the unpaid athletes engage in sustained physical contact because we need the TV revenues" is just way to damning.

---

I would normally opine that there would be no way for a corona virus vaccine to be available 6-8 months after infection verified, but the fast-tracking of potential Covid 19 vaccinations allows for that possibility. It is more likely, however, that once widespread testing for both Covid 19 infection as well as testing for virus antigens (who had it) is actually available, we will get a much better understanding of what we can do as a nation to return to some level of normality.

We are learning daily based on modeling done by institutions such as the Imperial College and Oxford that we are dealing with a rapidly changing outlook, with still wide-ranging estimates of current infection rate and fatality rates. What is known without significant caveats is that due to inadequate testing, there are more cases than currently being reported and that the mortality rate is much higher for the aged and medically compromised.

As we learn about transmission, infected population, recovered population, demographic characteristics etc, I would think our schools will open slowly, and both prep, college and pro sports will find ways to return to their respective fields of play. I am guessing that television will be a major factor in the return of sports and the logistics of live attendance, travel and lodging, dealing with new cases of illness with teammates or opponents will be addressed in some fashion. The unique role that sports play in our national psyche and economy will drive this outcome well before a "totally safe" situation(if that ever exists in any case) is declared.

https://www.sfgate.com/49ers/article/NFL-coronavirus-return-on-time-stadiums-cancel-15179444.php

Gavin Newsom 'not anticipating' normal NFL, college football games in the fall

I think our best hope is an abbreviated season that begins mid to late October (conference games only) and perhaps extends to January.

Very interesting situation. What happens in the NFL if half the Governers give the green light and half give the red light. Do games get played at a neutral site?

So many unanswered questions. It's fun to speculate though since nobody knows how this all will play out.

southseasbear said:

---

I think our best hope is an abbreviated season that begins mid to late October (conference games only) and perhaps extends to January.

---

Conf only schedule is the death knell for independents like ND & BYU. Saw one writer claim that ACC could have nine of its teams play ND while the remaining 5 ACC teams add a game from the likes of BYU, New Mexico State, etc. LOL. Only way that happens is if ND agrees to join ACC. Then I could see ACC calculating that throwing a lifeline to ND could be worth it.

Cal84 said:

---

southseasbear said:

---

I think our best hope is an abbreviated season that begins mid to late October (conference games only) and perhaps extends to January.

---

Conf only schedule is the death knell for independents like ND & BYU. Saw one writer claim that ACC could have nine of its teams play ND while the remaining 5 ACC teams add a game from the likes of BYU, New Mexico State, etc. LOL. Only way that happens is if ND agrees to join ACC. Then I could see ACC calculating that throwing a lifeline to ND could be worth it.

---

Notre Dame is already an ACC member. In football, they play six games a year v. ACC opposition; however, they are not eligible to play in the conference championship game. They play a full ACC schedule in other sports.

ColoradoBear said:

---

https://www.sfgate.com/49ers/article/NFL-coronavirus-return-on-time-stadiums-cancel-15179444.php

Gavin Newsom 'not anticipating' normal NFL, college football games in the fall

---

I think there will be no college football for sure and very likely no NFL either. No college football would severely impact the entire athletic departments around the nation. Sports will be cut. Society will be feeling the impact of this for years IMO. If getting back to some sense of normalcy requires a vaccine it will be a long time til we do.

socaltownie said:

---

That doesn't mean let 2 million die but there is going to be pressure to really ask about the mid and end game a lot more than what is presently going on with just the public health guys in charge.

---

Um,... if the public health guys were in charge from the beginning we would be well on our way to recovery. See South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.

metabear said:

---

socaltownie said:

---

That doesn't mean let 2 million die but there is going to be pressure to really ask about the mid and end game a lot more than what is presently going on with just the public health guys in charge.

---

Um,... if the public health guys were in charge from the beginning we would be well on our way to recovery. See South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.

---

uhh....no

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/asia/tokyo-coronavirus-japan-hnk-intl/index.html

Japan in particularly seems to have gotten lucky in respect to initial transmission. I leave it to others that are better versed on East Asian trade and economics to understand that (but what seems to be the case is that there are tighter ties between US and China and Italy and China than these other nations). But now the lack of social distancing has the chance of Tokyo making NYC look like a cakewalk.

>Japan in particularly seems to have gotten lucky in respect to initial transmission. I leave it to others that are better versed on East Asian trade and economics to understand that (but what seems to be the case is that there are tighter ties between US and China and Italy and China than these other nations).

The circumstances are different than you posit, but I think your conclusions are, unfortunately, correct. Japan is squarely in the target hairs and that's why the state of emergency was declared today.

People have struggled to explain why Japan with low testing rates and no mandatory stay at home edicts has had a very low infection rate, similar to that of South Korea which was very aggressive on testing and then targeted isolation of positive tested subjects. Both the RoK and Japan have extensive commercial and transport links to the PRC and would have been exposed to the virus early on. But unlike every other country in the world, both the RoK and Japanese populations have one thing in common - mandated exposure to Bacillus CalmetteGuerin (BCG), the vaccine for tuberculosis. This vaccine was commonly required across the world in the mid part of the 20th century. It has remained mandatory only in the RoK and Japan. Scientifically, we know the BCG vaccine also provides partial resistance to a variety of respiratory illnesses. If it provides some resistance to COVID19, that would explain the lower than average illness rates in the RoK and Japan. Clearly though it is not true prophylactic since COVID19 cases do occur amongst RoK and Japanese citizens all of whom have been vaccinated with BCG. It would appear that Japan got an early reprieve from COVID19 due to its BCG exposure, but that unlike the RoK, it wasted it's good luck by not further combating the coronavirus with active test/isolate processes.

Cal84 said:

---

>Japan in particularly seems to have gotten lucky in respect to initial transmission. I leave it to others that are better versed on East Asian trade and economics to understand that (but what seems to be the case is that there are tighter ties between US and China and Italy and China than these other nations).

The circumstances are different than you posit, but I think your conclusions are, unfortunately, correct. Japan is squarely in the target hairs and that's why the state of emergency was declared today.

People have struggled to explain why Japan with low testing rates and no mandatory stay at home edicts has had a very low infection rate, similar to that of South Korea which was very aggressive on testing and then targeted isolation of positive tested subjects. Both the RoK and Japan have extensive commercial and transport links to the PRC and would have been exposed to the virus early on. But unlike every other country in the world, both the RoK and Japanese populations have one thing in common - mandated exposure to Bacillus CalmetteGuerin (BCG), the vaccine for tuberculosis. This vaccine was commonly required across the world in the mid part of the 20th century. It has remained mandatory only in the RoK and Japan. Scientifically, we know the BCG vaccine also provides partial resistance to a variety of respiratory illnesses. If it provides some resistance to COVID19, that would explain the lower than average illness rates in the RoK and Japan. Clearly though it is not true prophylactic since COVID19 cases do occur amongst RoK and Japanese citizens all of whom have been vaccinated with BCG. It would appear that Japan got an early reprieve from COVID19 due to its BCG exposure, but that unlike the RoK, it wasted it's good luck by not further combating the coronavirus with active test/isolate processes.

---

Interesting. Musing out loud - I wonder why BCG vacinnation is not on the table for an interim step between "bending the curve" and a full CV19 vaccine? I have been spending a LOT Of professional time thinking about "what next" since regional economies really can not take 18 months of shutting down their service sector economy. Hope to have some numbers soon but honestly if we are looking at that it is worse than the great depression - talking something like FIRST ORDER impacts close to 30% of the economy ad then when you add in multipliers getting upwards of 50%. What a lot of economists are missing when some public health people are talking is that social distancing is seen not just in phase 1 but lasting for 12 to 18 months.

It's my understanding that a 4,000 patient randomized study of the BCG vaccine's efficacy against COVID19 started just last week in Australia. This is a phase III study in clinical terms. That puts it far more advanced than the small sample, non-randomized observations with the anti-malarial drugs touted by that orange guy. But keep in mind that we already know that BCG at best provides resistance, not immunity to COVID19.

I think it is also fair to say that in Japan they also take social distancing as part of the regular culture, and everyone wore a mask there from the get-go. Having them implement social distancing would have been a much higher compliance rate. They have a very homogenous culture and the approbation of being someone who went to work sick, who was a carrier, would have been very high. They tracked down those who did test positive and everyone they got into contact with and quarantined them quickly.

The emergency now is that the quarantine situation has gone beyond those who they could track - the contagion is now in the wild, so to speak, and they are shutting down. It will be interesting to see if they have a surge now or if they can contain it.