From the Athletic today rating NFL QBs: #3 overall
Fifty NFL coaches and evaluators rated 35 veteran quarterbacks this year while providing candid evaluations that appear in the analysis below. The process was simple. Coaches and evaluators placed each quarterback in one of five tiers, from best (Tier 1) to worst (Tier 5). Once ballots were collected, results were averaged to create a ranking. Our unanimous Tier 1 choices averaged 1.00, while the lowest-rated player averaged 4.30. Quarterbacks fell into the tiers in which they received the most votes.
Tier 1 votes: 46 | Tier 2 votes: 4 | 2019 Tier: 1
Voters blamed Rodgers' supporting cast, not the quarterback himself, for the Packers' offensive regression over the past five seasons. But for the first time in the seven-year history of this survey, Rodgers did not at least tie for the top spot. Four voters placed him in the second tier, twice as many as last year.
"I know some people don't like him because of whatever, but all I know is, if you picked five quarterbacks you don't want to play every week, he is one of them," a defensive coach with NFC North experience said. "I don't want to **** with that guy. You can say what you want, but when you go into a game, that is the first guy you are preparing for. It ain't the running back, it ain't the receiver because he has free-agent running backs and third-round receivers, fourth-round receivers, just dudes, no tight end. You are worried about that dude."
None of the four voters who placed Rodgers in the second tier would have to draw up a game plan to defend him. The quartet included two contract negotiators and two young offensive assistant coaches.
"He has clearly lost something in his game," one of them said. "He still has 'wow' moments and games, but is not the same guy he was the last 10 years."
There has been statistical decline. The 2010-2014 Packers outpaced the 2015-2019 version in offensive points per game (27.8 to 23.7), offensive expected points added per game (10.0 to 3.2), EPA per pass attempt (0.38 to 0.16) and EPA per play (0.16 to 0.05) when Rodgers was in the lineup, according to models developed by Albert Larcada, senior director for TruMedia Networks.
"I have faced him so many times and he is the same guy," a different defensive coach with NFC North experience said. "The weapons around him have really fallen off. Before, they had a mix of young and veteran guys who understood the system. When they lost Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson, what they tried to do is patch it. Davante Adams is a good receiver, but to me, I would not say he is a No. 1. They tried to plug in Jimmy Graham, a stopgap."
There was some thought Rodgers' production could spike in his second season running coach Matt LaFleur's offense if the quarterback has bought in fully. That was the case for Matt Ryan in a similar system under Kyle Shanahan with the Falcons in 2016. Of course, LaFleur is not Shanahan and there is no Julio Jones in Green Bay, but LaFleur was the Falcons' quarterbacks coach under Shanahan that season, at least.
"I just think in the right offensive situation for him, Rodgers would kill it," a former head coach said. "He still does. He still makes plays and throws that are unbelievable and can extend the play. It is hard to find guys like that. Adams is the one guy he plays well with, but I don't see that feel with other guys and I don't think Rodgers necessarily has the discipline of going through those progressions. He drops back and has to find guys and when he does that, a lot of times he has to make a snap throw and some of those throws that he makes are incredible, but if he was dialed into what was going on and where he was trying to attack and throwing it, I think he would be even better."
