My guess is that this season will be written off and next year will be a mulligan for Wilcox. Don't confuse what fans want with what the administration wants....

sycasey said:

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calumnus said:

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sycasey said:

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6956bear said:

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calumnus said:

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adujan said:

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calumnus said:

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4 years is usually the critical year, but this year will be a mulligan. Wilcox's conference record is 10-19 and unfortunately could be 10-21.

By comparison the 4 year conference records and results:
Theder 13-19 fired
Kapp 10-23-1 retained, fired next year.
Snyder 9-17-4 retained, great 1991 season followed
Gilbertson 11-21 fired
Holmoe 6-23 retained, fired next year
Tedford 20-12 enthusiastically retained
Dykes 10-26 fired

Wilcox's 4 year conference record is comparable to most Cal HCs of the last 4 decades. Only Tedford was obviously a keeper after 4 years. Only Holmoe was obviously worse (yet we retained him anyway). Theder, Gilbertson and Dykes were fired with the same or more conference wins. Snyder, Kapp and Holmoe were retained with comparable or worse conference records. The hope is Wilcox is a Snyder, poised on the brink of greatness. The fear is he is a Kapp or Holmoe, loved by Cal fans so given a 5th year but 5 years was enough.

Wilcox obviously will get a 5th year no matter what happens in this bizarre year. I think he will get an unprecedented 6th even with another year with a losing conference record. This year will be a mulligan. The fans here love him and Knowlton would never make a move without overwhelming fan/donor support (he was going to retain Wyking after all). If we have a winning conference record In year 5 or in year 6, Wilcox's contract will be extended.

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I am not sure why you're only looking at conference record. That definitely makes a major impact on Wilcox. His nonconference record is perfect, if I am not mistaken.

Here's looking at the coaches listed with both conference and overall record. I have included this year's three losses, but I think this year is an anomaly and should not be factored in.

Going into this year, Wilcox had over a .500 record overall. He is now one game under .500. I understand that we do not think .500 is good enough, but he came into his 4th year with a winning overall record. Tedford and Snyder both had records over .500. None of the other recent Cal coaches came close.

Conference Conf. % Overall Overall %
Theder 13-19 0.406 17-28 0.378
Kapp 10-23 0.303 20-34-1 0.370
Snyder 9-17 0.346 29-24-4 0.547
Gilbertson 11-21 0.344 20-26 0.435
Holmoe 6-23 0.207 16-39 0.291
Tedford 20-12 0.625 82-57 0.590
Dykes 10-26 0.278 19-30 0.388
Wilcox 10-17 0.370 20-21 0.488

---

I used conference record because the quality of non-conference is variable and the objective is to win the conference. I used 4 years because that appears to be the deciding point. Nobody is fired after 3 years.

Wilcox is currently 10-19 in conference and 10-1 out of conference. He will need to win out to gave a winning record after 4 years.

Moreover, under Wilcox we have yet to beat a FBS team with a winning record. In our two bowl games we played two 6-6 teams, wining one and losing one (making TCU the only FBS team we played OOC that ended up with a winning record).

2017
North Carolina 3-9, 1-7 in ACC
FCS Weber State
Ole Miss 6-6, 3-5 in the SEC
2018
North Carolina 2-9, 1-7 in ACC
BYU 6-6
FCS Idaho State
Loss to 6-6 TCU in Cheezit Bowl
2019
FCS UC Davis
North Texas 4-8, 3-5 in C-USA
Ole Miss 4-8, 2-6 in SEC
Illinois 6-6, 4-5 in Big Ten

Again, I think conference record is the best way to compare relative success of a Cal coach. There should not be too much reward for beating FCS teams or penalties for taking on winning/ranked OOC teams.

Wilcox falls right into the Snyder, Kapp, Holmoe range of a guy who is well liked, people are rooting for, and is going to get another year regardless of year 4 (and I am saying year 5 too) results.

The hope is we have a breakout year like under Snyder and this time we keep him. However if we just go 3-0 OOC and 5-4 in conference everyone will he more than happy. 2021 OOC opponents are Nevada, TCU and Sacramento State. 2022 opponents are UC Davis, UNLV and Norte Dame.

---

Be careful using the conference record as a barometer of success. There are some on this board that might get upset with the reference. It is however accurate and IMO a point of concern.

---

IMO it's poor analysis to leave ANY real results out of the picture. You can adjust if you think the schedule was harder at a given time, or for weird things like this COVID year and I'd be happy to discuss all of it, but to leave out something like 1/5 to 1/4 of the games just seems foolish to me. An AD should be considering all of it when deciding whether or not to retain a coach.

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I still think the goal is to win the conference and in that case only conference games count. Beating three OOC patsies to win 6 or 7 games while finishing in the bottom half of the conference and going to a minor bowl is better than finishing with a losing record is not the long term goal but it will get you renewed at Cal. However, if we include ALL the games best way to take into account the wide variance in SOS is the rankings in Sagarin.

The Sagarin rankings for the last two years of the last four coaches:
Holmoe: #61 #121 fired
Tedford: #34 #73 fired
Dykes: #26 #62 fired
Wilcox: #50 #64 (#92 in recent) mulligan

Obviously perception matters. I am certain Wilcox will be our coach in 2022, no matter what our results are this and next year. He will only be on the hot seat in 2022 if next year is a bad year (#70 or above) and will be extended if either year we are #50 or below.

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Of course the goal is to win the conference. But we're not trying to determine who already won the conference, because if we already had that guy there would be no debate about keeping him. This is about whether or not the coach has POTENTIAL to win the conference. I think out of conference games are relevant to that analysis, especially if they are against other Power 5 teams. The conference is also bigger than it used to be, so the unbalanced conference records aren't even apples-to-apples within a season anymore, much less across eras.

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I agree the fire, don't fire or extend decision should be based on future potential, with past performance only useful as an indicator. To include all the info I used Sagarin. Wilcox's results have not been great, but the fact he achieved those results with a horrible offense and lackluster recruiting indicates great upside when he has a good OC, wins more and the top talent starts arriving.

calumnus said:

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I agree the fire, don't fire or extend decision should be based on future potential, with past performance only useful as an indicator. To include all the info I used Sagarin. Wilcox's results have not been great, but the fact he achieved those results with a horrible offense and lackluster recruiting indicates great upside when he has a good OC, wins more and the top talent starts arriving.

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Is this sarcasm?

calumnus said:

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sycasey said:

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calumnus said:

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sycasey said:

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6956bear said:

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calumnus said:

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adujan said:

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calumnus said:

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4 years is usually the critical year, but this year will be a mulligan. Wilcox's conference record is 10-19 and unfortunately could be 10-21.

By comparison the 4 year conference records and results:
Theder 13-19 fired
Kapp 10-23-1 retained, fired next year.
Snyder 9-17-4 retained, great 1991 season followed
Gilbertson 11-21 fired
Holmoe 6-23 retained, fired next year
Tedford 20-12 enthusiastically retained
Dykes 10-26 fired

Wilcox's 4 year conference record is comparable to most Cal HCs of the last 4 decades. Only Tedford was obviously a keeper after 4 years. Only Holmoe was obviously worse (yet we retained him anyway). Theder, Gilbertson and Dykes were fired with the same or more conference wins. Snyder, Kapp and Holmoe were retained with comparable or worse conference records. The hope is Wilcox is a Snyder, poised on the brink of greatness. The fear is he is a Kapp or Holmoe, loved by Cal fans so given a 5th year but 5 years was enough.

Wilcox obviously will get a 5th year no matter what happens in this bizarre year. I think he will get an unprecedented 6th even with another year with a losing conference record. This year will be a mulligan. The fans here love him and Knowlton would never make a move without overwhelming fan/donor support (he was going to retain Wyking after all). If we have a winning conference record In year 5 or in year 6, Wilcox's contract will be extended.

---

I am not sure why you're only looking at conference record. That definitely makes a major impact on Wilcox. His nonconference record is perfect, if I am not mistaken.

Here's looking at the coaches listed with both conference and overall record. I have included this year's three losses, but I think this year is an anomaly and should not be factored in.

Going into this year, Wilcox had over a .500 record overall. He is now one game under .500. I understand that we do not think .500 is good enough, but he came into his 4th year with a winning overall record. Tedford and Snyder both had records over .500. None of the other recent Cal coaches came close.

Conference Conf. % Overall Overall %
Theder 13-19 0.406 17-28 0.378
Kapp 10-23 0.303 20-34-1 0.370
Snyder 9-17 0.346 29-24-4 0.547
Gilbertson 11-21 0.344 20-26 0.435
Holmoe 6-23 0.207 16-39 0.291
Tedford 20-12 0.625 82-57 0.590
Dykes 10-26 0.278 19-30 0.388
Wilcox 10-17 0.370 20-21 0.488

---

I used conference record because the quality of non-conference is variable and the objective is to win the conference. I used 4 years because that appears to be the deciding point. Nobody is fired after 3 years.

Wilcox is currently 10-19 in conference and 10-1 out of conference. He will need to win out to gave a winning record after 4 years.

Moreover, under Wilcox we have yet to beat a FBS team with a winning record. In our two bowl games we played two 6-6 teams, wining one and losing one (making TCU the only FBS team we played OOC that ended up with a winning record).

2017
North Carolina 3-9, 1-7 in ACC
FCS Weber State
Ole Miss 6-6, 3-5 in the SEC
2018
North Carolina 2-9, 1-7 in ACC
BYU 6-6
FCS Idaho State
Loss to 6-6 TCU in Cheezit Bowl
2019
FCS UC Davis
North Texas 4-8, 3-5 in C-USA
Ole Miss 4-8, 2-6 in SEC
Illinois 6-6, 4-5 in Big Ten

Again, I think conference record is the best way to compare relative success of a Cal coach. There should not be too much reward for beating FCS teams or penalties for taking on winning/ranked OOC teams.

Wilcox falls right into the Snyder, Kapp, Holmoe range of a guy who is well liked, people are rooting for, and is going to get another year regardless of year 4 (and I am saying year 5 too) results.

The hope is we have a breakout year like under Snyder and this time we keep him. However if we just go 3-0 OOC and 5-4 in conference everyone will he more than happy. 2021 OOC opponents are Nevada, TCU and Sacramento State. 2022 opponents are UC Davis, UNLV and Norte Dame.

---

Be careful using the conference record as a barometer of success. There are some on this board that might get upset with the reference. It is however accurate and IMO a point of concern.

---

IMO it's poor analysis to leave ANY real results out of the picture. You can adjust if you think the schedule was harder at a given time, or for weird things like this COVID year and I'd be happy to discuss all of it, but to leave out something like 1/5 to 1/4 of the games just seems foolish to me. An AD should be considering all of it when deciding whether or not to retain a coach.

---

I still think the goal is to win the conference and in that case only conference games count. Beating three OOC patsies to win 6 or 7 games while finishing in the bottom half of the conference and going to a minor bowl is better than finishing with a losing record is not the long term goal but it will get you renewed at Cal. However, if we include ALL the games best way to take into account the wide variance in SOS is the rankings in Sagarin.

The Sagarin rankings for the last two years of the last four coaches:
Holmoe: #61 #121 fired
Tedford: #34 #73 fired
Dykes: #26 #62 fired
Wilcox: #50 #64 (#92 in recent) mulligan

Obviously perception matters. I am certain Wilcox will be our coach in 2022, no matter what our results are this and next year. He will only be on the hot seat in 2022 if next year is a bad year (#70 or above) and will be extended if either year we are #50 or below.

---

Of course the goal is to win the conference. But we're not trying to determine who already won the conference, because if we already had that guy there would be no debate about keeping him. This is about whether or not the coach has POTENTIAL to win the conference. I think out of conference games are relevant to that analysis, especially if they are against other Power 5 teams. The conference is also bigger than it used to be, so the unbalanced conference records aren't even apples-to-apples within a season anymore, much less across eras.

---

I agree the fire, don't fire or extend decision should be based on future potential, with past performance only useful as an indicator. To include all the info I used Sagarin. Wilcox's results have not been great, but the fact he achieved those results with a horrible offense and lackluster recruiting indicates great upside when he has a good OC, wins more and the top talent starts arriving.

---

My opinion on Wilcox is that while his results weren't great YET, he was showing consistent improvement every year (until this year which I'm not sure what to make of). Hence no need to cut bait. The issue with Dykes and others is the sense that we'd clearly already seen their ceilings, and it wasn't good enough.

Anyway, I suspect we are not far off in our evaluations. I'm just not a fan of only including conference record as a metric.

calumnus said:

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sycasey said:

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calumnus said:

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sycasey said:

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6956bear said:

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calumnus said:

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adujan said:

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calumnus said:

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4 years is usually the critical year, but this year will be a mulligan. Wilcox's conference record is 10-19 and unfortunately could be 10-21.

By comparison the 4 year conference records and results:
Theder 13-19 fired
Kapp 10-23-1 retained, fired next year.
Snyder 9-17-4 retained, great 1991 season followed
Gilbertson 11-21 fired
Holmoe 6-23 retained, fired next year
Tedford 20-12 enthusiastically retained
Dykes 10-26 fired

Wilcox's 4 year conference record is comparable to most Cal HCs of the last 4 decades. Only Tedford was obviously a keeper after 4 years. Only Holmoe was obviously worse (yet we retained him anyway). Theder, Gilbertson and Dykes were fired with the same or more conference wins. Snyder, Kapp and Holmoe were retained with comparable or worse conference records. The hope is Wilcox is a Snyder, poised on the brink of greatness. The fear is he is a Kapp or Holmoe, loved by Cal fans so given a 5th year but 5 years was enough.

Wilcox obviously will get a 5th year no matter what happens in this bizarre year. I think he will get an unprecedented 6th even with another year with a losing conference record. This year will be a mulligan. The fans here love him and Knowlton would never make a move without overwhelming fan/donor support (he was going to retain Wyking after all). If we have a winning conference record In year 5 or in year 6, Wilcox's contract will be extended.

---

I am not sure why you're only looking at conference record. That definitely makes a major impact on Wilcox. His nonconference record is perfect, if I am not mistaken.

Here's looking at the coaches listed with both conference and overall record. I have included this year's three losses, but I think this year is an anomaly and should not be factored in.

Going into this year, Wilcox had over a .500 record overall. He is now one game under .500. I understand that we do not think .500 is good enough, but he came into his 4th year with a winning overall record. Tedford and Snyder both had records over .500. None of the other recent Cal coaches came close.

Conference Conf. % Overall Overall %
Theder 13-19 0.406 17-28 0.378
Kapp 10-23 0.303 20-34-1 0.370
Snyder 9-17 0.346 29-24-4 0.547
Gilbertson 11-21 0.344 20-26 0.435
Holmoe 6-23 0.207 16-39 0.291
Tedford 20-12 0.625 82-57 0.590
Dykes 10-26 0.278 19-30 0.388
Wilcox 10-17 0.370 20-21 0.488

---

I used conference record because the quality of non-conference is variable and the objective is to win the conference. I used 4 years because that appears to be the deciding point. Nobody is fired after 3 years.

Wilcox is currently 10-19 in conference and 10-1 out of conference. He will need to win out to gave a winning record after 4 years.

Moreover, under Wilcox we have yet to beat a FBS team with a winning record. In our two bowl games we played two 6-6 teams, wining one and losing one (making TCU the only FBS team we played OOC that ended up with a winning record).

2017
North Carolina 3-9, 1-7 in ACC
FCS Weber State
Ole Miss 6-6, 3-5 in the SEC
2018
North Carolina 2-9, 1-7 in ACC
BYU 6-6
FCS Idaho State
Loss to 6-6 TCU in Cheezit Bowl
2019
FCS UC Davis
North Texas 4-8, 3-5 in C-USA
Ole Miss 4-8, 2-6 in SEC
Illinois 6-6, 4-5 in Big Ten

Again, I think conference record is the best way to compare relative success of a Cal coach. There should not be too much reward for beating FCS teams or penalties for taking on winning/ranked OOC teams.

Wilcox falls right into the Snyder, Kapp, Holmoe range of a guy who is well liked, people are rooting for, and is going to get another year regardless of year 4 (and I am saying year 5 too) results.

The hope is we have a breakout year like under Snyder and this time we keep him. However if we just go 3-0 OOC and 5-4 in conference everyone will he more than happy. 2021 OOC opponents are Nevada, TCU and Sacramento State. 2022 opponents are UC Davis, UNLV and Norte Dame.

---

Be careful using the conference record as a barometer of success. There are some on this board that might get upset with the reference. It is however accurate and IMO a point of concern.

---

IMO it's poor analysis to leave ANY real results out of the picture. You can adjust if you think the schedule was harder at a given time, or for weird things like this COVID year and I'd be happy to discuss all of it, but to leave out something like 1/5 to 1/4 of the games just seems foolish to me. An AD should be considering all of it when deciding whether or not to retain a coach.

---

I still think the goal is to win the conference and in that case only conference games count. Beating three OOC patsies to win 6 or 7 games while finishing in the bottom half of the conference and going to a minor bowl is better than finishing with a losing record is not the long term goal but it will get you renewed at Cal. However, if we include ALL the games best way to take into account the wide variance in SOS is the rankings in Sagarin.

The Sagarin rankings for the last two years of the last four coaches:
Holmoe: #61 #121 fired
Tedford: #34 #73 fired
Dykes: #26 #62 fired
Wilcox: #50 #64 (#92 in recent) mulligan

Obviously perception matters. I am certain Wilcox will be our coach in 2022, no matter what our results are this and next year. He will only be on the hot seat in 2022 if next year is a bad year (#70 or above) and will be extended if either year we are #50 or below.

---

Of course the goal is to win the conference. But we're not trying to determine who already won the conference, because if we already had that guy there would be no debate about keeping him. This is about whether or not the coach has POTENTIAL to win the conference. I think out of conference games are relevant to that analysis, especially if they are against other Power 5 teams. The conference is also bigger than it used to be, so the unbalanced conference records aren't even apples-to-apples within a season anymore, much less across eras.

---

I agree the fire, don't fire or extend decision should be based on future potential, with past performance only useful as an indicator. To include all the info I used Sagarin. Wilcox's results have not been great, but the fact he achieved those results with a horrible offense and lackluster recruiting indicates great upside when he has a good OC, wins more and the top talent starts arriving.

---

I am afraid that waiting for the day when Cal "has a good OC" is much like Waiting for Godot.

71Bear said:

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calumnus said:

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sycasey said:

---

calumnus said:

---

sycasey said:

---

6956bear said:

---

calumnus said:

---

adujan said:

---

calumnus said:

---

4 years is usually the critical year, but this year will be a mulligan. Wilcox's conference record is 10-19 and unfortunately could be 10-21.

By comparison the 4 year conference records and results:
Theder 13-19 fired
Kapp 10-23-1 retained, fired next year.
Snyder 9-17-4 retained, great 1991 season followed
Gilbertson 11-21 fired
Holmoe 6-23 retained, fired next year
Tedford 20-12 enthusiastically retained
Dykes 10-26 fired

Wilcox's 4 year conference record is comparable to most Cal HCs of the last 4 decades. Only Tedford was obviously a keeper after 4 years. Only Holmoe was obviously worse (yet we retained him anyway). Theder, Gilbertson and Dykes were fired with the same or more conference wins. Snyder, Kapp and Holmoe were retained with comparable or worse conference records. The hope is Wilcox is a Snyder, poised on the brink of greatness. The fear is he is a Kapp or Holmoe, loved by Cal fans so given a 5th year but 5 years was enough.

Wilcox obviously will get a 5th year no matter what happens in this bizarre year. I think he will get an unprecedented 6th even with another year with a losing conference record. This year will be a mulligan. The fans here love him and Knowlton would never make a move without overwhelming fan/donor support (he was going to retain Wyking after all). If we have a winning conference record In year 5 or in year 6, Wilcox's contract will be extended.

---

I am not sure why you're only looking at conference record. That definitely makes a major impact on Wilcox. His nonconference record is perfect, if I am not mistaken.

Here's looking at the coaches listed with both conference and overall record. I have included this year's three losses, but I think this year is an anomaly and should not be factored in.

Going into this year, Wilcox had over a .500 record overall. He is now one game under .500. I understand that we do not think .500 is good enough, but he came into his 4th year with a winning overall record. Tedford and Snyder both had records over .500. None of the other recent Cal coaches came close.

Conference Conf. % Overall Overall %
Theder 13-19 0.406 17-28 0.378
Kapp 10-23 0.303 20-34-1 0.370
Snyder 9-17 0.346 29-24-4 0.547
Gilbertson 11-21 0.344 20-26 0.435
Holmoe 6-23 0.207 16-39 0.291
Tedford 20-12 0.625 82-57 0.590
Dykes 10-26 0.278 19-30 0.388
Wilcox 10-17 0.370 20-21 0.488

---

I used conference record because the quality of non-conference is variable and the objective is to win the conference. I used 4 years because that appears to be the deciding point. Nobody is fired after 3 years.

Wilcox is currently 10-19 in conference and 10-1 out of conference. He will need to win out to gave a winning record after 4 years.

Moreover, under Wilcox we have yet to beat a FBS team with a winning record. In our two bowl games we played two 6-6 teams, wining one and losing one (making TCU the only FBS team we played OOC that ended up with a winning record).

2017
North Carolina 3-9, 1-7 in ACC
FCS Weber State
Ole Miss 6-6, 3-5 in the SEC
2018
North Carolina 2-9, 1-7 in ACC
BYU 6-6
FCS Idaho State
Loss to 6-6 TCU in Cheezit Bowl
2019
FCS UC Davis
North Texas 4-8, 3-5 in C-USA
Ole Miss 4-8, 2-6 in SEC
Illinois 6-6, 4-5 in Big Ten

Again, I think conference record is the best way to compare relative success of a Cal coach. There should not be too much reward for beating FCS teams or penalties for taking on winning/ranked OOC teams.

Wilcox falls right into the Snyder, Kapp, Holmoe range of a guy who is well liked, people are rooting for, and is going to get another year regardless of year 4 (and I am saying year 5 too) results.

The hope is we have a breakout year like under Snyder and this time we keep him. However if we just go 3-0 OOC and 5-4 in conference everyone will he more than happy. 2021 OOC opponents are Nevada, TCU and Sacramento State. 2022 opponents are UC Davis, UNLV and Norte Dame.

---

Be careful using the conference record as a barometer of success. There are some on this board that might get upset with the reference. It is however accurate and IMO a point of concern.

---

IMO it's poor analysis to leave ANY real results out of the picture. You can adjust if you think the schedule was harder at a given time, or for weird things like this COVID year and I'd be happy to discuss all of it, but to leave out something like 1/5 to 1/4 of the games just seems foolish to me. An AD should be considering all of it when deciding whether or not to retain a coach.

---

I still think the goal is to win the conference and in that case only conference games count. Beating three OOC patsies to win 6 or 7 games while finishing in the bottom half of the conference and going to a minor bowl is better than finishing with a losing record is not the long term goal but it will get you renewed at Cal. However, if we include ALL the games best way to take into account the wide variance in SOS is the rankings in Sagarin.

The Sagarin rankings for the last two years of the last four coaches:
Holmoe: #61 #121 fired
Tedford: #34 #73 fired
Dykes: #26 #62 fired
Wilcox: #50 #64 (#92 in recent) mulligan

Obviously perception matters. I am certain Wilcox will be our coach in 2022, no matter what our results are this and next year. He will only be on the hot seat in 2022 if next year is a bad year (#70 or above) and will be extended if either year we are #50 or below.

---

Of course the goal is to win the conference. But we're not trying to determine who already won the conference, because if we already had that guy there would be no debate about keeping him. This is about whether or not the coach has POTENTIAL to win the conference. I think out of conference games are relevant to that analysis, especially if they are against other Power 5 teams. The conference is also bigger than it used to be, so the unbalanced conference records aren't even apples-to-apples within a season anymore, much less across eras.

---

I agree the fire, don't fire or extend decision should be based on future potential, with past performance only useful as an indicator. To include all the info I used Sagarin. Wilcox's results have not been great, but the fact he achieved those results with a horrible offense and lackluster recruiting indicates great upside when he has a good OC, wins more and the top talent starts arriving.

---

I am afraid that waiting for the day when Cal "has a good OC" is much like Waiting for Godot.

---

That was our experience with Holmoe. Good OCs are in high demand, they move on to top programs, the NFL, and/or become head coaches. Defensive-minded coaches at a place like Cal usually have to take chances on first time OCs, guys from FCS, retreads, etc and will have trouble keeping a really good one (unless they are nearing retirement). That is one reason I wanted to hire Troy Taylor as OC (before he took the Sac State HC job).

Baldwin would have moved on if he was successful. Musgrave seems like a guy who will be loyal and stay if successful, but might be looking to go back to the NFL. Hopefully he is wildly successful and we get to find out.

I must have missed it. Were we shut out in the last two games with blow-out losses?