Pac12 transfers - coming and going

11,296 Views | 79 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by calbears4ever
Fyght4Cal
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dimitrig said:

helltopay1 said:

The transfer portal is ruining college sports..

I think it's pretty clear that an education is not on the mind of a lot of these players.

It leaves a bad taste in my mouth, to be honest.

Maybe it's time to clear the air about that.



These are free men. They must be treated as such. Especially since their labor is unpaid and used to support so many others.
Patience is a virtue, but I’m not into virtue signaling these days.
dimitrig
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Fyght4Cal said:

dimitrig said:

helltopay1 said:

The transfer portal is ruining college sports..

I think it's pretty clear that an education is not on the mind of a lot of these players.

It leaves a bad taste in my mouth, to be honest.

Maybe it's time to clear the air about that.
These are free men. They must be treated as such. Especially since their labor is unpaid and used to support so many others.

I absolutely support their right to transfer just like that of any other student.

That doesn't mean I like what I'm seeing.

It's a two-way street, right? We (students and alumni) don't have to support these programs if we don't like what we see. I wouldn't call them integral to the mission of the university nor do they bring in so much money that we must turn a blind eye to them for the good of the university. A lot of people are making a lot of money off of them, but it's not clear that the universities (especially Cal) do:

"According to the NCAA, among the 65 autonomy schools in Division I, only 25 recorded a positive net generated revenue in 2019.

The term "autonomy" refers to a 2014 NCAA decision that allowed the Power Five conferences the Southeastern Conference (SEC), Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), Big Ten, Pac-12, and Big 12 to establish their own rules regarding student scholarships, recruitment, and staffing, among other concerns. These schools, especially those in the SEC and Big Ten, along with Clemson in the ACC, typically dominate college football each year.

Among those reporting a net positive, the median profit per school was $7.9 million. And among the 40 autonomy schools reporting a negative net revenue, the median loss was $15.9 million. In other words, the majority of universities in the nation's top athletic conferences the schools you see on TV every weekend competing for national championships lost money through their sports programs to the tune of approximately $16 million each."

I think a lot of people will be turned off if college athletics becomes too openly mercenary in nature. We have the NFL and NBA for that and even there free agency and a lack of loyalty to the owners and the fan base has had some negative implications. In the end, sports is about entertainment.These big TV contracts are ultimately paid for by the fans. The players shouldn't forget that.






calumnus
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Fyght4Cal said:

dimitrig said:

helltopay1 said:

The transfer portal is ruining college sports..

I think it's pretty clear that an education is not on the mind of a lot of these players.

It leaves a bad taste in my mouth, to be honest.

Maybe it's time to clear the air about that.



These are free men. They must be treated as such. Especially since their labor is unpaid and used to support so many others.


The key is to make Cal a compelling place to play basketball and go to school.
ClayK
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As I've mentioned too often ...

Accountants can make the books sing whatever song they want ...

If athletic departments showed a profit, it would be almost impossible to keep from paying the players.

If athletic departments showed a profit, why would boosters donate millions for buyouts, etc.?

If athletic departments actually were a significant negative economically, why do universities keep them? (Free marketing, alumni engagement, increased enrollment ...)

If athletic departments actually were a significant negative economically, why do more schools move up to Division I each year? And why don't more schools move down to Division III?
socaltownie
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ClayK said:

As I've mentioned too often ...

Accountants can make the books sing whatever song they want ...

If athletic departments showed a profit, it would be almost impossible to keep from paying the players.

If athletic departments showed a profit, why would boosters donate millions for buyouts, etc.?

If athletic departments actually were a significant negative economically, why do universities keep them? (Free marketing, alumni engagement, increased enrollment ...)

If athletic departments actually were a significant negative economically, why do more schools move up to Division I each year? And why don't more schools move down to Division III?
Plus many. While Cal may be an outlier ;-) most D1 universities are run VERY much like a business. Your department not pulling its weight - get ready to get cut or eliminated.
And thus if ADs did NOT demonstrate a positive ROI they would be eliminated.

Just to expand a bit more - enrollment is very much an exercise in economies of scale and "stickyiness" on the cost side. While true that if you take 3,000 additional freshman you gotta invest a significant amount of money, you really don't incur a huge delta in cost of taking another 10 unless you are already maxed out in capacity in critical areas (housing the biggest one) and have no slack.

But ADs around the country fully cost (usually at out of state tuition) the price of athletic scholarships as IF (farcical) that Bubba is taking a slot from a full ride paying no institutional aid frosh who is denied admission because of our new star left tackle. While I am sure up to snuff with accounting standards, it is not really a cost MOST universities are incurring - especially when many of the athletics housing complexes around the country are paid for either by donors or as a function of student add on fees.
stu
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dimitrig said:

I think it's pretty clear that an education is not on the mind of a lot of these players.

It leaves a bad taste in my mouth, to be honest.

Maybe it's time to clear the air about that.
FWIW the average GPA is 3.61 on the Cal women's team. That says a lot about our players and coaches and makes me proud of the program.
calumnus
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All the movement is confusing but it appears that after the transfers and incoming freshman classes, Cal will be the only team in the PAC-12 without a single player who was ranked in the top 100 in their recruiting class. (Bradley was our only one last year). This for the first time at Cal in many decades.

We battled UW for the cellar but they have four, current or former 4 star players coming in, including Langston Wilson the #1 Juco PF. Colorado, WSU and OSU all have highly rated (Top 100) talent coming in.


Econ141
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calumnus said:

All the movement is confusing but it appears that after the transfers and incoming freshman classes, Cal will be the only team in the PAC-12 without a single player who was ranked in the top 100 in their recruiting class. (Bradley was our only one last year). This for the first time at Cal in many decades.

We battled UW for the cellar but they have four, current or former 4 star players coming in, including Langston Wilson the #1 Juco PF. Colorado, WSU and OSU all have highly rated (Top 100) talent coming in.





We are making history guys!
HoopDreams
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calumnus said:

All the movement is confusing but it appears that after the transfers and incoming freshman classes, Cal will be the only team in the PAC-12 without a single player who was ranked in the top 100 in their recruiting class. (Bradley was our only one last year). This for the first time at Cal in many decades.

We battled UW for the cellar but they have four, current or former 4 star players coming in, including Langston Wilson the #1 Juco PF. Colorado, WSU and OSU all have highly rated (Top 100) talent coming in.

the only other team that did poorly in the offseason transfer/recruiting game was Utah

we have to count on player improvement and coaching to somehow get to improve our conference standings and W/L record

one thing that might help is fans at Haas. this year we lost some close ones at home. maybe with fans in the stands, it will make a difference between some of those close losses

we did poorly on the road anyway, so having opponents in the stands might not have the same impact on our W/L record

socaliganbear
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HoopDreams said:

calumnus said:

All the movement is confusing but it appears that after the transfers and incoming freshman classes, Cal will be the only team in the PAC-12 without a single player who was ranked in the top 100 in their recruiting class. (Bradley was our only one last year). This for the first time at Cal in many decades.

We battled UW for the cellar but they have four, current or former 4 star players coming in, including Langston Wilson the #1 Juco PF. Colorado, WSU and OSU all have highly rated (Top 100) talent coming in.

the only other team that did poorly in the offseason transfer/recruiting game was Utah

we have to count on player improvement and coaching to somehow get to improve our conference standings and W/L record

one thing that might help is fans at Haas. this year we lost some close ones at home. maybe with fans in the stands, it will make a difference between some of those close losses

we did poorly on the road anyway, so having opponents in the stands might not have the same impact on our W/L record




The program has done nothing to lure fans back at Haas.
calumnus
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HoopDreams said:

calumnus said:

All the movement is confusing but it appears that after the transfers and incoming freshman classes, Cal will be the only team in the PAC-12 without a single player who was ranked in the top 100 in their recruiting class. (Bradley was our only one last year). This for the first time at Cal in many decades.

We battled UW for the cellar but they have four, current or former 4 star players coming in, including Langston Wilson the #1 Juco PF. Colorado, WSU and OSU all have highly rated (Top 100) talent coming in.

the only other team that did poorly in the offseason transfer/recruiting game was Utah

we have to count on player improvement and coaching to somehow get to improve our conference standings and W/L record

one thing that might help is fans at Haas. this year we lost some close ones at home. maybe with fans in the stands, it will make a difference between some of those close losses

we did poorly on the road anyway, so having opponents in the stands might not have the same impact on our W/L record




Yes, Utah also had a questionable coaching change.

I agree, even though our roster will definitely be weaker, I could see us equaling or slightly improving our record this past season based on an improved home court advantage and better roster management by Fox. Tough to see us finishing higher than last though. And we will almost certainly again be one of the very lowest scoring teams in the country, but worse. The hope has to be that our defense will improve and we eek out some wins in very low scoring games.
joe amos yaks
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fat_slice said:

calumnus said:

All the movement is confusing but it appears that after the transfers and incoming freshman classes, Cal will be the only team in the PAC-12 without a single player who was ranked in the top 100 in their recruiting class. (Bradley was our only one last year). This for the first time at Cal in many decades.

We battled UW for the cellar but they have four, current or former 4 star players coming in, including Langston Wilson the #1 Juco PF. Colorado, WSU and OSU all have highly rated (Top 100) talent coming in.
We are making history guys!
Yes, we'll do it with exceptional coaching, growth and achievement, and that is the high line to success.
calumnus
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joe amos yaks said:

fat_slice said:

calumnus said:

All the movement is confusing but it appears that after the transfers and incoming freshman classes, Cal will be the only team in the PAC-12 without a single player who was ranked in the top 100 in their recruiting class. (Bradley was our only one last year). This for the first time at Cal in many decades.

We battled UW for the cellar but they have four, current or former 4 star players coming in, including Langston Wilson the #1 Juco PF. Colorado, WSU and OSU all have highly rated (Top 100) talent coming in.
We are making history guys!
Yes, we'll do it with exceptional coaching, growth and achievement, and that is the high line to success.


Good one!
oskidunker
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calumnus said:

joe amos yaks said:

fat_slice said:

calumnus said:

All the movement is confusing but it appears that after the transfers and incoming freshman classes, Cal will be the only team in the PAC-12 without a single player who was ranked in the top 100 in their recruiting class. (Bradley was our only one last year). This for the first time at Cal in many decades.

We battled UW for the cellar but they have four, current or former 4 star players coming in, including Langston Wilson the #1 Juco PF. Colorado, WSU and OSU all have highly rated (Top 100) talent coming in.
We are making history guys!
Yes, we'll do it with exceptional coaching, growth and achievement, and that is the high line to success.


Good one!
Sly like a Fox. Go Bears!
HoopDreams
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oregon feeds off of high quality transfers

the new 100% free agency all the time plays right into their hands

another example of the rich get richer and how the change of rules favor the powerhouse teams

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/31478732/oregon-ducks-men-basketball-lands-all-acc-forward-quincy-guerrier-via-transfer

socaliganbear
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HoopDreams said:

oregon feeds off of high quality transfers

the new 100% free agency all the time plays right into their hands

another example of the rich get richer and how the change of rules favor the powerhouse teams

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/31478732/oregon-ducks-men-basketball-lands-all-acc-forward-quincy-guerrier-via-transfer




We also rely on transfers. Every year for the past few years. Our just aren't as good as theirs.
HoopDreams
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My point is: players will transfer up the food chain, and the powerhouse schools are at the top so they will gain a bigger advantage from the the change in transfer rules

I don't have a problem that players can transfer, but it further deteriorates competitive balance


socaliganbear said:

HoopDreams said:

oregon feeds off of high quality transfers

the new 100% free agency all the time plays right into their hands

another example of the rich get richer and how the change of rules favor the powerhouse teams

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/31478732/oregon-ducks-men-basketball-lands-all-acc-forward-quincy-guerrier-via-transfer




We also rely on transfers. Every year for the past few years. Our just aren't as good as theirs.
ClayK
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Players will also transfer down the food chain as they realize they won't play at their first school.

And competitive balance has never existed, in any sport as far as I can tell. The rich and smart who care about success will find a way to succeed; those who lack resources (which would include Cal) will always struggle, especially if their decision-making is shaky.

The free agency era, and endorsement money, will change the landscape dramatically, but at the same time we will still have a few programs adapting and succeeding, while most others will flail about as they always have, no matter what system is in place.
BeachedBear
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ClayK said:

Players will also transfer down the food chain as they realize they won't play at their first school.

And competitive balance has never existed, in any sport as far as I can tell. The rich and smart who care about success will find a way to succeed; those who lack resources (which would include Cal) will always struggle, especially if their decision-making is shaky.

The free agency era, and endorsement money, will change the landscape dramatically, but at the same time we will still have a few programs adapting and succeeding, while most others will flail about as they always have, no matter what system is in place.
Well said.
HoopDreams
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ClayK said:

Players will also transfer down the food chain as they realize they won't play at their first school.

And competitive balance has never existed, in any sport as far as I can tell. The rich and smart who care about success will find a way to succeed; those who lack resources (which would include Cal) will always struggle, especially if their decision-making is shaky.

The free agency era, and endorsement money, will change the landscape dramatically, but at the same time we will still have a few programs adapting and succeeding, while most others will flail about as they always have, no matter what system is in place.
I almost never agree with statements that we have crime now, so more crime won't matter

I know that's not exactly what you are saying, but it's a common logic fallacy

but to your point, yes, there will be breakthrough teams that move up a level in the pecking order, but to do so will be increasing difficult for almost all D1 teams. On the other hand, the top teams now certainly have an advantage with this rule change to add to their existing advantages

SFCityBear
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AunBear89 said:

ClayK said:

helltopay1 said:

The transfer portal is ruining college sports..
But it's giving students the same freedom as coaches, administrators, professors, drama majors and math majors.


Freedom is only for science deniers, GQP voters, and rich white guys.
Actually, the opposite has more truth to it. Much scientific research questioning or disproving the work of favored scientists is censored, as is any research or evidence of inaccuracy affecting the media's desired outcome of elections. And the richest of the rich white guys, the ones who control all of social media, are doing much of the censoring, or taking away freedom, especially that of free speech. What are these rich people so afraid of?

SFCityBear
calumnus
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SFCityBear said:

AunBear89 said:

ClayK said:

helltopay1 said:

The transfer portal is ruining college sports..
But it's giving students the same freedom as coaches, administrators, professors, drama majors and math majors.


Freedom is only for science deniers, GQP voters, and rich white guys.
Actually, the opposite has more truth to it. Much scientific research questioning or disproving the work of favored scientists is censored, as is any research or evidence of inaccuracy affecting the media's desired outcome of elections. And the richest of the rich white guys, the ones who control all of social media, are doing much of the censoring, or taking away freedom, especially that of free speech. What are these rich people so afraid of?




They did nothing to stop the disinformation of rich white people like Rupert Murdoch, the Koch brothers, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump for years and then it lead to an armed assault on the US Capital seeking to kill politicians and overturn our democracy resulting in the deaths of 5 people including police officers. Now Senate Republicans are blocking an congressional investigation of that insurrection. What are they afraid of?

Here is an interview with John Samples of the libertarian Cato Institute who is on the Facebook oversight board explaining why they voted to kick Trump off the platform:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/board-member-explains-decision-to-keep-trump-off-facebook-for-now-and-why-he-may-be-back
calumnus
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ClayK said:

Players will also transfer down the food chain as they realize they won't play at their first school.

And competitive balance has never existed, in any sport as far as I can tell. The rich and smart who care about success will find a way to succeed; those who lack resources (which would include Cal) will always struggle, especially if their decision-making is shaky.

The free agency era, and endorsement money, will change the landscape dramatically, but at the same time we will still have a few programs adapting and succeeding, while most others will flail about as they always have, no matter what system is in place.


We saw the same thing in professional sports. For the most part, free agency broke up the old dynasties and has lead to a more competitive landscape. This is most true where there is free agency with revenue sharing and/or salary caps. That might be something to look at at the PAC-12 and/or NCAA level.
HoopDreams
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calumnus said:

ClayK said:

Players will also transfer down the food chain as they realize they won't play at their first school.

And competitive balance has never existed, in any sport as far as I can tell. The rich and smart who care about success will find a way to succeed; those who lack resources (which would include Cal) will always struggle, especially if their decision-making is shaky.

The free agency era, and endorsement money, will change the landscape dramatically, but at the same time we will still have a few programs adapting and succeeding, while most others will flail about as they always have, no matter what system is in place.


We saw the same thing in professional sports. For the most part, free agency broke up the old dynasties and has lead to a more competitive landscape. This is most true where there is free agency with revenue sharing and/or salary caps. That might be something to look at at the PAC-12 and/or NCAA level.
I posed the question before, what will college basketball due to maintain some level of competitive balance with 100% free agency all the time?

the NBA has free agency, but it's not all the time, and the NBA has some rules to maintain some level of competitive balance (e.g. salary caps and the lottery draft)

the NBA understands that competitive balance helps the sports, otherwise the smaller market teams will be at such a disadvantage that they would get less and less competitive, and either fans for those teams would lose interest as the deck is so stacked against them that it becomes pointless

So since college basketball has no salary cap, has not advantage to weaker teams in the 'draft', and free agency is all the time (not just at the end of contracts), what will they do?

I didn't hear any good solutions/answers when I asked before, and honestly can't think of any that doesn't break some thing else

I agree with the new transfer rules and NIL rules, but also think college basketball needs to figure out how not to destroy itself with all these changes. I'm not the only one wondering about this. ESPN radio has run a number of shows discussing this, and they say that coaches don't know either. They also mention an Athletic article this week (I don't subscribe, but maybe someone here who does can paraphrase)
calumnus
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HoopDreams said:

calumnus said:

ClayK said:

Players will also transfer down the food chain as they realize they won't play at their first school.

And competitive balance has never existed, in any sport as far as I can tell. The rich and smart who care about success will find a way to succeed; those who lack resources (which would include Cal) will always struggle, especially if their decision-making is shaky.

The free agency era, and endorsement money, will change the landscape dramatically, but at the same time we will still have a few programs adapting and succeeding, while most others will flail about as they always have, no matter what system is in place.


We saw the same thing in professional sports. For the most part, free agency broke up the old dynasties and has lead to a more competitive landscape. This is most true where there is free agency with revenue sharing and/or salary caps. That might be something to look at at the PAC-12 and/or NCAA level.
I posed the question before, what will college basketball due to maintain some level of competitive balance with 100% free agency all the time?

the NBA has free agency, but it's not all the time, and the NBA has some rules to maintain some level of competitive balance (e.g. salary caps and the lottery draft)

the NBA understands that competitive balance helps the sports, otherwise the smaller market teams will be at such a disadvantage that they would get less and less competitive, and either fans for those teams would lose interest as the deck is so stacked against them that it becomes pointless

So since college basketball has no salary cap, has not advantage to weaker teams in the 'draft', and free agency is all the time (not just at the end of contracts), what will they do?

I didn't hear any good solutions/answers when I asked before, and honestly can't think of any that doesn't break some thing else

I agree with the new transfer rules and NIL rules, but also think college basketball needs to figure out how not to destroy itself with all these changes. I'm not the only one wondering about this. ESPN radio has run a number of shows discussing this, and they say that coaches don't know either. They also mention an Athletic article this week (I don't subscribe, but maybe someone here who does can paraphrase)


One way to think about this is it is like the prior NLI 4 year commitment but with more information and more freedom. Somewhat a continuation of what the internet recruiting services brought about.

Players who go to a big program dreaming of being stars but who wind up on the bench can go to the program they should have gone to start with.

Players who sign up with a smooth talking coach who claims to be their best friend but then turns out to be a sociopathic disciplinarian can leave.

Players who were overlooked in the recruiting process and ended up at smaller schools in lower divisions can still fullfill their dreams playing on the big stage and having a shot at the pros.

Basically, there will be more chances for things to sort themselves out. Players will have a better chance of winding up where they would have gone if there were perfect information on all sides.

Several types of coaches will be disadvantaged: 1) coaches that do a great job of scouting and finding overlooked gems (and developing them), 2) liars and 3) hard ass coaches that are not fun to play for.

Coaches that succeed will be ones that can create learning and winning in a fun environment and who earn the loyalty of the players. Those are the programs players will want to transfer to and/or stay and graduate from.

The strong programs will have great starters every year, but will not be able to stockpile talent. The best players will be more evenly distributed among teams that have a shot at the Tournament. More parity among the Top 50. However, the teams outside of the the Top 100 will get weaker, as their best players leave for teams that are contenders, which we are seeing at Cal.
HoopDreams
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calumnus said:

HoopDreams said:

calumnus said:

ClayK said:

Players will also transfer down the food chain as they realize they won't play at their first school.

And competitive balance has never existed, in any sport as far as I can tell. The rich and smart who care about success will find a way to succeed; those who lack resources (which would include Cal) will always struggle, especially if their decision-making is shaky.

The free agency era, and endorsement money, will change the landscape dramatically, but at the same time we will still have a few programs adapting and succeeding, while most others will flail about as they always have, no matter what system is in place.


We saw the same thing in professional sports. For the most part, free agency broke up the old dynasties and has lead to a more competitive landscape. This is most true where there is free agency with revenue sharing and/or salary caps. That might be something to look at at the PAC-12 and/or NCAA level.
I posed the question before, what will college basketball due to maintain some level of competitive balance with 100% free agency all the time?

the NBA has free agency, but it's not all the time, and the NBA has some rules to maintain some level of competitive balance (e.g. salary caps and the lottery draft)

the NBA understands that competitive balance helps the sports, otherwise the smaller market teams will be at such a disadvantage that they would get less and less competitive, and either fans for those teams would lose interest as the deck is so stacked against them that it becomes pointless

So since college basketball has no salary cap, has not advantage to weaker teams in the 'draft', and free agency is all the time (not just at the end of contracts), what will they do?

I didn't hear any good solutions/answers when I asked before, and honestly can't think of any that doesn't break some thing else

I agree with the new transfer rules and NIL rules, but also think college basketball needs to figure out how not to destroy itself with all these changes. I'm not the only one wondering about this. ESPN radio has run a number of shows discussing this, and they say that coaches don't know either. They also mention an Athletic article this week (I don't subscribe, but maybe someone here who does can paraphrase)


One way to think about this is it is like the prior NLI 4 year commitment but with more information and more freedom. Somewhat a continuation of what the internet recruiting services brought about.

Players who go to a big program dreaming of being stars but who wind up on the bench can go to the program they should have gone to start with.

Players who sign up with a smooth talking coach who claims to be their best friend but then turns out to be a sociopathic disciplinarian can leave.

Players who were overlooked in the recruiting process and ended up at smaller schools in lower divisions can still fullfill their dreams playing on the big stage and having a shot at the pros.

Basically, there will be more chances for things to sort themselves out. Players will have a better chance of winding up where they would have gone if there were perfect information on all sides.

Several types of coaches will be disadvantaged: 1) coaches that do a great job of scouting and finding overlooked gems (and developing them), 2) liars and 3) hard ass coaches that are not fun to play for.

Coaches that succeed will be ones that can create learning and winning in a fun environment and who earn the loyalty of the players. Those are the programs players will want to transfer to and/or stay and graduate from.

The strong programs will have great starters every year, but will not be able to stockpile talent. The best players will be more evenly distributed among teams that have a shot at the Tournament. More parity among the Top 50. However, the teams outside of the the Top 100 will get weaker, as their best players leave for teams that are contenders, which we are seeing at Cal.

I agree with your post that things will sort themselves out better with more info about players, and for coaches who do a poor job of managing their players

But I disagree that the best players will be more evenly distributed among the top 50 teams

Probably more like top 20 teams with the top 5-10 becoming super teams

The top teams in the small conferences can still be successful because they only compete with their conference opponents and get an automatic bid to the ncaa. They can be the big fish in a small pond

But when you are in the P6 big pond, it's going to be tougher to beat the top 2-3 teams since they can instantly reload a top talent in a position of need

Before there were at least some holes or weaknesses in some of the top teams that teams like cal can exploit on occasion, especially because we often had one or two under the radar players like Crabbe, Anderson or Bradley

Will those players stay with cal as long as they did in the past?

I think some would for example Jorge and Randle, but not as many as before

Basically, without any new rules to check competitive balance, I just see another disadvantage for cal

We better recognize this and come up with an innovative strategy (I suggested a couple already)
dimitrig
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Imagine the NBA with:

1. No salary cap

A team can sign whatever player it wishes if he's willing to come play

2. No draft

In the NBA, the worst teams are guaranteed a shot at the best players.

3. No long-term contracts

Don't like your team/coach/city/NBA prospects? Just opt out and go somewhere else.

That would be a disaster and that is what is happening to college basketball.

This isn't good for any teams except the ones that need it the least.

I wish I had a good solution.





calumnus
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HoopDreams said:

calumnus said:

HoopDreams said:

calumnus said:

ClayK said:

Players will also transfer down the food chain as they realize they won't play at their first school.

And competitive balance has never existed, in any sport as far as I can tell. The rich and smart who care about success will find a way to succeed; those who lack resources (which would include Cal) will always struggle, especially if their decision-making is shaky.

The free agency era, and endorsement money, will change the landscape dramatically, but at the same time we will still have a few programs adapting and succeeding, while most others will flail about as they always have, no matter what system is in place.


We saw the same thing in professional sports. For the most part, free agency broke up the old dynasties and has lead to a more competitive landscape. This is most true where there is free agency with revenue sharing and/or salary caps. That might be something to look at at the PAC-12 and/or NCAA level.
I posed the question before, what will college basketball due to maintain some level of competitive balance with 100% free agency all the time?

the NBA has free agency, but it's not all the time, and the NBA has some rules to maintain some level of competitive balance (e.g. salary caps and the lottery draft)

the NBA understands that competitive balance helps the sports, otherwise the smaller market teams will be at such a disadvantage that they would get less and less competitive, and either fans for those teams would lose interest as the deck is so stacked against them that it becomes pointless

So since college basketball has no salary cap, has not advantage to weaker teams in the 'draft', and free agency is all the time (not just at the end of contracts), what will they do?

I didn't hear any good solutions/answers when I asked before, and honestly can't think of any that doesn't break some thing else

I agree with the new transfer rules and NIL rules, but also think college basketball needs to figure out how not to destroy itself with all these changes. I'm not the only one wondering about this. ESPN radio has run a number of shows discussing this, and they say that coaches don't know either. They also mention an Athletic article this week (I don't subscribe, but maybe someone here who does can paraphrase)


One way to think about this is it is like the prior NLI 4 year commitment but with more information and more freedom. Somewhat a continuation of what the internet recruiting services brought about.

Players who go to a big program dreaming of being stars but who wind up on the bench can go to the program they should have gone to start with.

Players who sign up with a smooth talking coach who claims to be their best friend but then turns out to be a sociopathic disciplinarian can leave.

Players who were overlooked in the recruiting process and ended up at smaller schools in lower divisions can still fullfill their dreams playing on the big stage and having a shot at the pros.

Basically, there will be more chances for things to sort themselves out. Players will have a better chance of winding up where they would have gone if there were perfect information on all sides.

Several types of coaches will be disadvantaged: 1) coaches that do a great job of scouting and finding overlooked gems (and developing them), 2) liars and 3) hard ass coaches that are not fun to play for.

Coaches that succeed will be ones that can create learning and winning in a fun environment and who earn the loyalty of the players. Those are the programs players will want to transfer to and/or stay and graduate from.

The strong programs will have great starters every year, but will not be able to stockpile talent. The best players will be more evenly distributed among teams that have a shot at the Tournament. More parity among the Top 50. However, the teams outside of the the Top 100 will get weaker, as their best players leave for teams that are contenders, which we are seeing at Cal.

I agree with your post that things will sort themselves out better with more info about players, and for coaches who do a poor job of managing their players

But I disagree that the best players will be more evenly distributed among the top 50 teams

Probably more like top 20 teams with the top 5-10 becoming super teams

The top teams in the small conferences can still be successful because they only compete with their conference opponents and get an automatic bid to the ncaa. They can be the big fish in a small pond

But when you are in the P6 big pond, it's going to be tougher to beat the top 2-3 teams since they can instantly reload a top talent in a position of need

Before there were at least some holes or weaknesses in some of the top teams that teams like cal can exploit on occasion, especially because we often had one or two under the radar players like Crabbe, Anderson or Bradley

Will those players stay with cal as long as they did in the past?

I think some would for example Jorge and Randle, but not as many as before

Basically, without any new rules to check competitive balance, I just see another disadvantage for cal

We better recognize this and come up with an innovative strategy (I suggested a couple already)



Except I think many players will want to be one of the stars of a good team rather than a sub on a great team. More money for their likeness for one. More chance to score and show the NBA what they can do. It may be just the Top 20 as you say, but do I think it will go beyond that. Maybe not 50, that is too many bubble teams....maybe 35 to 40 (the top 200 players or so).
socaltownie
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HoopDreams said:

calumnus said:

ClayK said:

Players will also transfer down the food chain as they realize they won't play at their first school.

And competitive balance has never existed, in any sport as far as I can tell. The rich and smart who care about success will find a way to succeed; those who lack resources (which would include Cal) will always struggle, especially if their decision-making is shaky.

The free agency era, and endorsement money, will change the landscape dramatically, but at the same time we will still have a few programs adapting and succeeding, while most others will flail about as they always have, no matter what system is in place.


We saw the same thing in professional sports. For the most part, free agency broke up the old dynasties and has lead to a more competitive landscape. This is most true where there is free agency with revenue sharing and/or salary caps. That might be something to look at at the PAC-12 and/or NCAA level.
I posed the question before, what will college basketball due to maintain some level of competitive balance with 100% free agency all the time?

the NBA has free agency, but it's not all the time, and the NBA has some rules to maintain some level of competitive balance (e.g. salary caps and the lottery draft)

the NBA understands that competitive balance helps the sports, otherwise the smaller market teams will be at such a disadvantage that they would get less and less competitive, and either fans for those teams would lose interest as the deck is so stacked against them that it becomes pointless

So since college basketball has no salary cap, has not advantage to weaker teams in the 'draft', and free agency is all the time (not just at the end of contracts), what will they do?

I didn't hear any good solutions/answers when I asked before, and honestly can't think of any that doesn't break some thing else

I agree with the new transfer rules and NIL rules, but also think college basketball needs to figure out how not to destroy itself with all these changes. I'm not the only one wondering about this. ESPN radio has run a number of shows discussing this, and they say that coaches don't know either. They also mention an Athletic article this week (I don't subscribe, but maybe someone here who does can paraphrase)
I guess the flip side is that CFB proves that "competitive balance" may be overrated - I believe I saw that 78% of playoff bearths since the advent of the playofffs have gone to 4 teams. That isn't balance and yet football ratings have been, I believe, fine.
ClayK
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The lack of salary cap is an issue, no question -- but there's never been one before. And boosters have always managed to get money to elite players as well.

For me, the biggest shift is the acknowledgement that D-1 teams are essentially professional, and have little to do with the student body at large or the college community. They have always been hired guns, and now no one can pretend otherwise.
socaltownie
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ClayK said:

The lack of salary cap is an issue, no question -- but there's never been one before. And boosters have always managed to get money to elite players as well.

For me, the biggest shift is the acknowledgement that D-1 teams are essentially professional, and have little to do with the student body at large or the college community. They have always been hired guns, and now no one can pretend otherwise.
Has anyone ever seen a decently sourced data dive (or an undergrad want to take a shot? Would be a good paper/project in a lot of social science classes) on the number of P5 Baskeball players (you could dip into some mid major conference powerhouses like Zaga and SDSU and include conferences like the Big East) to see the percentage of BB players that make SOME money professionally? We would want to know those that are in the NBA, those that are in the D League (which isn't great money but dangles out hope) and those playing overseas and likely earning what they would make if they graduated with their Bachelors and entered the job market as a junior X.

My gut tells me that this is the key "challenge" with hoops vs. football. It is SO hard to make it in the NFL _AND_ the careers for the vast majority of players and positions is VERY short. It is also the case that fewer schools field football teams. And thus what you end up with is, paradoxically, MORE focus on academics by football players who know that if they don't make it in the NFL they really do not have an option to make $$ playing and if they get hurt at their first rookie camp in the NLF there is no guaranteed money and they are screwed.
bearmanpg
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HoopDreams said:

calumnus said:

HoopDreams said:

calumnus said:

ClayK said:

Players will also transfer down the food chain as they realize they won't play at their first school.

And competitive balance has never existed, in any sport as far as I can tell. The rich and smart who care about success will find a way to succeed; those who lack resources (which would include Cal) will always struggle, especially if their decision-making is shaky.

The free agency era, and endorsement money, will change the landscape dramatically, but at the same time we will still have a few programs adapting and succeeding, while most others will flail about as they always have, no matter what system is in place.


We saw the same thing in professional sports. For the most part, free agency broke up the old dynasties and has lead to a more competitive landscape. This is most true where there is free agency with revenue sharing and/or salary caps. That might be something to look at at the PAC-12 and/or NCAA level.
I posed the question before, what will college basketball due to maintain some level of competitive balance with 100% free agency all the time?

the NBA has free agency, but it's not all the time, and the NBA has some rules to maintain some level of competitive balance (e.g. salary caps and the lottery draft)

the NBA understands that competitive balance helps the sports, otherwise the smaller market teams will be at such a disadvantage that they would get less and less competitive, and either fans for those teams would lose interest as the deck is so stacked against them that it becomes pointless

So since college basketball has no salary cap, has not advantage to weaker teams in the 'draft', and free agency is all the time (not just at the end of contracts), what will they do?

I didn't hear any good solutions/answers when I asked before, and honestly can't think of any that doesn't break some thing else

I agree with the new transfer rules and NIL rules, but also think college basketball needs to figure out how not to destroy itself with all these changes. I'm not the only one wondering about this. ESPN radio has run a number of shows discussing this, and they say that coaches don't know either. They also mention an Athletic article this week (I don't subscribe, but maybe someone here who does can paraphrase)


One way to think about this is it is like the prior NLI 4 year commitment but with more information and more freedom. Somewhat a continuation of what the internet recruiting services brought about.

Players who go to a big program dreaming of being stars but who wind up on the bench can go to the program they should have gone to start with.

Players who sign up with a smooth talking coach who claims to be their best friend but then turns out to be a sociopathic disciplinarian can leave.

Players who were overlooked in the recruiting process and ended up at smaller schools in lower divisions can still fullfill their dreams playing on the big stage and having a shot at the pros.

Basically, there will be more chances for things to sort themselves out. Players will have a better chance of winding up where they would have gone if there were perfect information on all sides.

Several types of coaches will be disadvantaged: 1) coaches that do a great job of scouting and finding overlooked gems (and developing them), 2) liars and 3) hard ass coaches that are not fun to play for.

Coaches that succeed will be ones that can create learning and winning in a fun environment and who earn the loyalty of the players. Those are the programs players will want to transfer to and/or stay and graduate from.

The strong programs will have great starters every year, but will not be able to stockpile talent. The best players will be more evenly distributed among teams that have a shot at the Tournament. More parity among the Top 50. However, the teams outside of the the Top 100 will get weaker, as their best players leave for teams that are contenders, which we are seeing at Cal.

I agree with your post that things will sort themselves out better with more info about players, and for coaches who do a poor job of managing their players

But I disagree that the best players will be more evenly distributed among the top 50 teams

Probably more like top 20 teams with the top 5-10 becoming super teams

The top teams in the small conferences can still be successful because they only compete with their conference opponents and get an automatic bid to the ncaa. They can be the big fish in a small pond

But when you are in the P6 big pond, it's going to be tougher to beat the top 2-3 teams since they can instantly reload a top talent in a position of need

Before there were at least some holes or weaknesses in some of the top teams that teams like cal can exploit on occasion, especially because we often had one or two under the radar players like Crabbe, Anderson or Bradley

Will those players stay with cal as long as they did in the past?

I think some would for example Jorge and Randle, but not as many as before

Basically, without any new rules to check competitive balance, I just see another disadvantage for cal

We better recognize this and come up with an innovative strategy (I suggested a couple already)

Here is a list of the top 101 transfers....I didn't look real close but it sure looks like you may be right HD....https://watchstadium.com/college-basketballs-top-101-transfers-for-2021-05-19-2021/
HoopDreams
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socaltownie said:

HoopDreams said:

calumnus said:

ClayK said:

Players will also transfer down the food chain as they realize they won't play at their first school.

And competitive balance has never existed, in any sport as far as I can tell. The rich and smart who care about success will find a way to succeed; those who lack resources (which would include Cal) will always struggle, especially if their decision-making is shaky.

The free agency era, and endorsement money, will change the landscape dramatically, but at the same time we will still have a few programs adapting and succeeding, while most others will flail about as they always have, no matter what system is in place.


We saw the same thing in professional sports. For the most part, free agency broke up the old dynasties and has lead to a more competitive landscape. This is most true where there is free agency with revenue sharing and/or salary caps. That might be something to look at at the PAC-12 and/or NCAA level.
I posed the question before, what will college basketball due to maintain some level of competitive balance with 100% free agency all the time?

the NBA has free agency, but it's not all the time, and the NBA has some rules to maintain some level of competitive balance (e.g. salary caps and the lottery draft)

the NBA understands that competitive balance helps the sports, otherwise the smaller market teams will be at such a disadvantage that they would get less and less competitive, and either fans for those teams would lose interest as the deck is so stacked against them that it becomes pointless

So since college basketball has no salary cap, has not advantage to weaker teams in the 'draft', and free agency is all the time (not just at the end of contracts), what will they do?

I didn't hear any good solutions/answers when I asked before, and honestly can't think of any that doesn't break some thing else

I agree with the new transfer rules and NIL rules, but also think college basketball needs to figure out how not to destroy itself with all these changes. I'm not the only one wondering about this. ESPN radio has run a number of shows discussing this, and they say that coaches don't know either. They also mention an Athletic article this week (I don't subscribe, but maybe someone here who does can paraphrase)
I guess the flip side is that CFB proves that "competitive balance" may be overrated - I believe I saw that 78% of playoff bearths since the advent of the playofffs have gone to 4 teams. That isn't balance and yet football ratings have been, I believe, fine.
yes, there is currently poor competitive balance in football, and that makes me less and less interested in college football every year ... I never watch any of the 3 play off games and think the chances of Cal making it into the 4 team playoff is almost zero
oskidunker
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"yes, there is currently poor competitive balance in football, and that makes me less and less interested in college football every year ... I never watch any of the 3 play off games and think the chances of Cal making it into the 4 team playoff is almost zero"

This exactly how I feel. Cal is never even in the Pac 12 championship by early November-which makes the last part of the season not very interesting. I used to be an eternal ,optimist but sadly reality has caught up. The early season wins over patsies used to fire me up but now I realize they don't count fora lot. We are never competitive in the conference since Rodgers left. Every year we are told this will be the year. It would take-a miracle at this point.
HoopDreams
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Good update:

https://www.si.com/college/cal/basketball/pac-12-basketball-transfers?utm_email=4441C516F471C589E4B10523B0&g2i_eui=wwv3%2ba39%2b0QP73BsfC%2b%2fvg%3d%3d&g2i_source=newsletter&utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.si.com%2fcollege%2fcal%2fbasketball%2fpac-12-basketball-transfers&utm_campaign=bang-mult-nl-pac-12-hotline-nl&utm_content=manual

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