PAC-12 in Sagarin

481 Views | 4 Replies | Last: 3 days ago by calumnus
calumnus
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Recent

1. UCLA #4
2. Arizona #15

3. USC #37
4. Oregon #39
5. Utah #41

6. ASU #59
7. Colorado #67
8. Furd #70
9. WSU #73

10. UW #100

11. OSU #153

12. Cal #204

Upcoming games:
@Furd
@Colorado
@Utah
Arizona
ASU
@USC
@UCLA
UW
WSU
@Oregon
@OSU
First round PAC-12 Tournament

The next month could be brutal.
stu
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Yep. The next 7 games will be really tough and we may get beaten up some. Then we'll probably be underdogs in the 3 potentially winnable games after that. With the variability of basketball we could steal another win or two but I'm not counting on it.
CalLifer
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"It's a real credit to coach Fox that with all of the unforeseen injuries, we are almost out of the 200s and into the 100s. Salvaging this team might be the best coaching job of his career."

-- Jim Knowlton, probably, right before extending coach Fox's contract to line up with his own.
Cal8285
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I think Sagarin has us higher than any of the other computer rankings (currently #208).

As of today KenPom is 241, ESPN Power Index is 262, RPI is 302, and NET Ranking is 290.

The Bears can go winless the rest of the way and not drop too much in any of the computer rankings. Strength of schedule matters in those, and because all remaining games are against power conference opponents (all Pac-12), with only 4 at home, 7 on the road and one in Vegas (and the added Vegas game will likely be against the #5 seed in the Pac-12, so a decent team), we won't drop a lot.

Results matter most in NET ranking and RPI, so the Bears are almost certain to finish in the 300's if the Bears don't win another game.

Winning two more is certainly not out of the question, we've got UW at home, and it's basketball where the inferior team is going to win occasionally (we've beaten two better teams at home).

But going winless is also not out of the question, which would make this season unquestionably the worst in Cal basketball history, and at least the rating the NET ranking the NCAA selection committee uses will likely have us justifiably in the 300's. But maybe Knowlton will focus on Sagarin, where we may finish in the top 250 even if we don't win another game, and with a couple of wins could finish in the top 200.
calumnus
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Cal8285 said:

I think Sagarin has us higher than any of the other computer rankings (currently #208).

As of today KenPom is 241, ESPN Power Index is 262, RPI is 302, and NET Ranking is 290.

The Bears can go winless the rest of the way and not drop too much in any of the computer rankings. Strength of schedule matters in those, and because all remaining games are against power conference opponents (all Pac-12), with only 4 at home, 7 on the road and one in Vegas (and the added Vegas game will likely be against the #5 seed in the Pac-12, so a decent team), we won't drop a lot.

Results matter most in NET ranking and RPI, so the Bears are almost certain to finish in the 300's if the Bears don't win another game.

Winning two more is certainly not out of the question, we've got UW at home, and it's basketball where the inferior team is going to win occasionally (we've beaten two better teams at home).

But going winless is also not out of the question, which would make this season unquestionably the worst in Cal basketball history, and at least the rating the NET ranking the NCAA selection committee uses will likely have us justifiably in the 300's. But maybe Knowlton will focus on Sagarin, where we may finish in the top 250 even if we don't win another game, and with a couple of wins could finish in the top 200.


In Wyking Jones' first year we went 8-24, the Cal record for losses. In his first year,78-79, Kutchen went 6-21 (.222) the Cal record for worst winning percentage.

Fox in his 4th year, is currently at 3-17 (.150) with 12 to go.

He needs to win 5 of the 12 just to tie Wyking and have a higher winning percentage than Kutchen had in their first years. If he wins 4 or less, he owns both Cal records outright.

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