OT. Warriors in trouble?

48,598 Views | 350 Replies | Last: 9 yr ago by gobears
joe amos yaks
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I thought Coach Donovan did an excellent job, though he was frustrated by Durant and Westbrooke sometimes going into "hero mode".
sycasey
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joe yaks;842696607 said:

I thought Coach Donovan did an excellent job, though he was frustrated by Durant and Westbrooke sometimes going into "hero mode".


This is the big problem with the Thunder. People blamed Scott Brooks, their previous coach, but based on this it's clear that "hero ball" is in Durant and Westbrook's DNA. Very hard to get them out of that. The Warriors' stars are different; they are guys who have been overlooked or underrated on their way to the NBA, so they are more willing to buy into a team concept. Durant, meanwhile, has always been treated as a superstar, and by old-school thinking, the superstar needs to always take the big shots. He becomes predictable in big moments. Westbrook has a similar mentality. They can get away with this against lesser teams, but when trying to beat the league's best it gets them into trouble.

In their other big wins this postseason (last game against the Spurs, Games 3 and 4 vs Warriors), they had huge leads going into the 4th quarter, so late-game execution didn't matter. When the Warriors figured out how to keep it close, all they had to do was wait for the Thunder to revert to their predictable patterns and fall apart late in the game.
GivemTheAxe
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beelzebear;842696067 said:

Geez, you poor W's fans. I thought they could win it and good for them for doing so.

I think Westbrook and Durant EF'ed up their karma or the momentum. Shouldn't have laughed at Curry. Just dumb, even if they didn't mean it.

Any way, good for GS and basketball. But I hope OKC wins the final but for a side reason. W's need a rival. Without one, it's just not as fun. A handful of good teams duking it out is better for the game overall. If GS finishes off OKC, Durant is gone and maybe he'll go to GS? OKC has a decent chance but not an easy one. They have to re-energize and not fade, and no way they're favored. Durant and Westbrook have to want it more.


Agree that Westbrook and Durant laughing at Curry's performance was like waving a red flag in front of a bull or more like the photographers in the Original 1930's King Kong taunting King Kong.
I guess they never heard the saying "Don't tug on Superman's cape."
philbert
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sycasey;842696606 said:

Yup, this is why he got pulled. Once the Splash Brothers started making threes, he was a liability on defense.


In fairness to OKC, Curry did not really take advantage of Adams switching out on him on the PnR until this game. I think Curry's injury issues probably played into this earlier in the series, but luckily the old Steph came back just in time.
sycasey
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philbert;842696614 said:

In fairness to OKC, Curry did not really take advantage of Adams switching out on him on the PnR until this game. I think Curry's injury issues probably played into this earlier in the series, but luckily the old Steph came back just in time.


Oh, I agree. He hadn't made Adams pay for switching onto him before now (maybe because of physical issues), but in this one he was the old Steph and made the OKC big man unplayable (as he's done to so many other teams).
sycasey
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HoopDreams;842696565 said:

Cleveland's defense is not as strong nor as long as OKC
Cleveland's center won't cause the warriors as much a problem as Adams ... watch for Green to have big games
I do however worry about Cleveland's shooting. I doubt we see Lebron taking as many 3s as he did last year

series goes to 6 or 7 games ... they say the regular season doesn't matter, but it's given the Warriors home court advantage, and that's big


Agreed, I don't think the Cavs match up well defensively against the Warriors. The great equalizer for OKC was that they were able to prevent the Warriors from scoring in the paint. They had length and quickness to be able to challenge any layup or dunk. I don't think Cleveland can do that, so the Warriors should be able to get more easy buckets inside. And with Kyrie on the perimeter, either Steph or Klay should be able to get loose; they can't keep switching and bother the guards like the Thunder did.

The question is if Cleveland's shooting performance in the Eastern playoffs is real or a mirage created by random chance and front-running against lesser opponents. If they can keep it going under greater pressure, then they have a chance to outscore the Warriors. If not, it's a short series.
tsubamoto2001
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sycasey;842696609 said:

This is the big problem with the Thunder. People blamed Scott Brooks, their previous coach, but based on this it's clear that "hero ball" is in Durant and Westbrook's DNA. Very hard to get them out of that. The Warriors' stars are different; they are guys who have been overlooked or underrated on their way to the NBA, so they are more willing to buy into a team concept. Durant, meanwhile, has always been treated as a superstar, and by old-school thinking, the superstar needs to always take the big shots. He becomes predictable in big moments. Westbrook has a similar mentality. They can get away with this against lesser teams, but when trying to beat the league's best it gets them into trouble.

In their other big wins this postseason (last game against the Spurs, Games 3 and 4 vs Warriors), they had huge leads going into the 4th quarter, so late-game execution didn't matter. When the Warriors figured out how to keep it close, all they had to do was wait for the Thunder to revert to their predictable patterns and fall apart late in the game.


I read on Twitter that the Dubs were the most clutch team (Net Rating in the last 5 minutes) in the NBA and the Thunder were something like 20th. I'll try to see if there's anything on the Web supporting that, but it doesn't surprise me, based on what we've seen.
bearister
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sycasey;842696641 said:

...The question is if Cleveland's shooting performance in the Eastern playoffs is real or a mirage created by random chance and front-running against lesser opponents......


The East is weak sauce.

"The West is the best."
--Jim Morrison
mikecohen
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ducky23;842696521 said:

Ezeli was the mvp, no doubt about it.

Adams was simply dominating the game inside. Bogut was playing awful. Awful. He was getting worked by Adams and he also couldn't defend the PnR. So Kerr had to take bogut out and he went small with Barnes. That didn't work either.

So they went to ezeli and he didn't do anything spectacular, but he did two key things. He kept Adams off the offensive boards and he played PnR defense a ton better than bogut.

Once Adams is neutralized on the boards, he actually becomes a liability because Donovan decided to switch everything on defense and curry started lighting Adams up.

Donovan panics and takes Adams out and goes small the rest of the game. Game over.

Thank you festus ezeli!


Impressive insight -- I was wondering - I couldn't see it or figure it out. What is your basketball background?
ducky23
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sycasey;842696552 said:


When Kerr changed it up and went back to standard man-to-man defense with a big-man rim protector on the floor, that put the onus back on Russ and KD to make the smart plays and distribute well. But that's not their mentality. When those guys see just one man guarding them with no obvious double-team, they don't think to hit a cutter or swing the ball to the other side of the floor, they think "I can take this guy." But this means they are wearing themselves out by constantly going one-on-one and also freezing their teammates out, so the other guys are ice-cold when they are asked to make a shot. Against teams with worse defenders this approach might work (Westbrook and Durant can dominate a lot of players), but the Warriors can put Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala on them and hold their own, if they know for sure they don't have to help on any other players. This is why OKC folded in each of the last three games, despite starting reasonably well. They can't keep up that pace with only two guys taking shots.


This is a really good point. The talking heads (like Barkley et al) keep talking about how the Thunder "reverted" back to their bad habits and hero ball in Games 5,6,7. I haven't heard one talking head point out that they "reverted" to bad habits because Kerr/Ron Adams baited them into it. Its not like they just changed their mindset overnight. A lot had to do with the dubs changing their defensive strategy.
ducky23
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mikecohen;842696679 said:

Impressive insight -- I was wondering - I couldn't see it or figure it out. What is your basketball background?


no more than anyone else here. I've just watched probably 30 years of really really bad basketball (from the dubs to Cal). And like a lot of us, hung out at the RSF a lot.
going4roses
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ducky23;842696684 said:

This is a really good point. The talking heads (like Barkley et al) keep talking about how the Thunder "reverted" back to their bad habits and hero ball in Games 5,6,7. I haven't heard one talking head point out that they "reverted" to bad habits because Kerr/Ron Adams baited them into it. Its not like they just changed their mindset overnight. A lot had to do with the dubs changing their defensive strategy.



Simply put says I the basketball IQ of rock
sycasey
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ducky23;842696684 said:

This is a really good point. The talking heads (like Barkley et al) keep talking about how the Thunder "reverted" back to their bad habits and hero ball in Games 5,6,7. I haven't heard one talking head point out that they "reverted" to bad habits because Kerr/Ron Adams baited them into it. Its not like they just changed their mindset overnight. A lot had to do with the dubs changing their defensive strategy.


I was pretty despondent after Game 4, but then Bill Simmons had Haralabos Voulgaris (a.k.a. "haralabob" on Twitter) on his podcast. After going over how well the Thunder had played and how well Donovan had done to adjust to the Warriors and enforce the Thunder's physical advantages (which he had), Simmons asked if there was anything the Warriors could do. And Haralbos laid out exactly the strategy we saw in Game 5:

-Throw out the gimmicky defense with Draymond "roving" off of Roberson, because it was just giving Roberson easy cutting lanes and also putting Draymond way out of position when going for rebounds.
-Play Bogut more and generally "go big" to at least battle OKC to a standstill on the boards. Big men hanging out near the rim will also help contain Westbrook's driving and make him a jump shooter (which he sucks at).
-Put Klay on Westbrook and let Curry hide on Roberson/Waiters and play passing lanes.

Kerr did exactly that in Game 5, and the clear change in strategy gave me hope for the series. I still didn't think they'd win Game 6 in OKC (I figured OKC's role players would have more energy at home), but I did think that now there was a chance. Well, they got a heroic shooting performance from Klay Thompson and the Thunder fell apart with late-game hero-ball (aided by lockdown Iguodala defense). Once they broke that seal, the Game 7 win at Oracle was pretty predictable.
Unit2Sucks
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Wish I had seen this thread earlier. I think the Warriors should have a big advantage against CLE as compared to OKC. Cleveland has been beating up on teams without multiple scorers. Warriors obviously have a lot of firepower and can play defense at almost every position. Kyrie and Love are really really bad defenders - not sure how much time Cleveland can spend with both those guys on the court.

Also have to remember there's an extra day between games in the finals so both teams will be well rested, not just CLE. Expect Steph, Klay, Dray to play close to 40 minutes and we get 30+ from Iggy. We are such a good team when Iggy is playing that sort of load and with only 4-7 games left in the season there is no reason to leave anything in the tank.

Obviously Lebron is a huge problem for us, but I think we can win at every other position on the floor. Steph if he's finally healthy can dominate Kyrie. Draymond can shut down Love's offense (although perhaps can't keep him off the boards). Channing Frye will be interesting but that means more small lineups from us which is where we typically excel. I don't know how Cleveland will expect to contain both Steph and Klay while keeping Kyrie on the floor. I suspect they'll need to put Lebron on Klay since they know he can't guard Steph.

Cleveland will need a huge series from guys like JR Smith and Channing Frye to keep it close and they certainly have a puncher's chance, but I think the Warriors have a solid edge, assuming we're operating at close to full health. The more minutes that Mozgov and Tristan Thompson play, the more concerned I would be, but I don't think that's the direction CLE is heading right now.
Strykur
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In related news, Matt Barnes apparently wants back with the team next year at the vet minimum, unrestricted free agent this summer.
sycasey
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Unit2Sucks;842696805 said:

The more minutes that Mozgov and Tristan Thompson play, the more concerned I would be, but I don't think that's the direction CLE is heading right now.


And frankly, last year's Finals proved that those guys weren't a great match for the Warriors' smallball lineup. Mozgov has also been pretty bad this season after a good showing last season. I wouldn't expect him to get much run.
NVGolfingBear
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Strykur;842696806 said:

In related news, Matt Barnes apparently wants back with the team next year at the vet minimum, unrestricted free agent this summer.


If that punk wants to be part of the Warrior family, he can buy a ticket...
bearister
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NVGolfingBear;842696823 said:

If that punk wants to be part of the Warrior family, he can buy a ticket...


He is a faux tough guy, he criminally assaulted Shantay Legans, and he gives douche bags a bad name--but other than that he is a great guy.
ducky23
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sycasey;842696809 said:

And frankly, last year's Finals proved that those guys weren't a great match for the Warriors' smallball lineup. Mozgov has also been pretty bad this season after a good showing last season. I wouldn't expect him to get much run.


I also don't know how about Love is going to help them. He's just as much a liability as an asset. Kyrie on the other hand probably has substantial value even if weak defensively.
mikecohen
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GivemTheAxe;842696611 said:

Agree that Westbrook and Durant laughing at Curry's performance was like waving a red flag in front of a bull or more like the photographers in the Original 1930's King Kong taunting King Kong.
I guess they never heard the saying "Don't tug on Superman's cape."


Actually, it was a set-up by the female reporter who asked them words to the effect of whether they still thought Steph was under-rated as a Defender, which they fell for by telling the truth [the Dubs don't put Steph on the other team's best guard]; and they couldn't suppress a giggle at the thought of Steph trying to guard Westbrook. To my eyes, it was extraordinarily naive on their part; and, although the reporter announced herself as from one of the establishment media outlets (I can't remember which), it was more than clear to me that she was doing this in a patent attempt to provide bulletin board material for the Dubs. I mean, the question couldn't have had any other function - and she carried it off with a completely straight face, very serious and reporter-like. I would love to know the genesis of it: Is she just a huge Ws fan? Is she in a committed relationship with one? Did somebody connected with the Dubs pay her to do it?
mikecohen
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Unit2Sucks;842696805 said:

Wish I had seen this thread earlier. I think the Warriors should have a big advantage against CLE as compared to OKC. Cleveland has been beating up on teams without multiple scorers. Warriors obviously have a lot of firepower and can play defense at almost every position. Kyrie and Love are really really bad defenders - not sure how much time Cleveland can spend with both those guys on the court.

Also have to remember there's an extra day between games in the finals so both teams will be well rested, not just CLE. Expect Steph, Klay, Dray to play close to 40 minutes and we get 30+ from Iggy. We are such a good team when Iggy is playing that sort of load and with only 4-7 games left in the season there is no reason to leave anything in the tank.

Obviously Lebron is a huge problem for us, but I think we can win at every other position on the floor. Steph if he's finally healthy can dominate Kyrie. Draymond can shut down Love's offense (although perhaps can't keep him off the boards). Channing Frye will be interesting but that means more small lineups from us which is where we typically excel. I don't know how Cleveland will expect to contain both Steph and Klay while keeping Kyrie on the floor. I suspect they'll need to put Lebron on Klay since they know he can't guard Steph.

Cleveland will need a huge series from guys like JR Smith and Channing Frye to keep it close and they certainly have a puncher's chance, but I think the Warriors have a solid edge, assuming we're operating at close to full health. The more minutes that Mozgov and Tristan Thompson play, the more concerned I would be, but I don't think that's the direction CLE is heading right now.


Picking on one point: Iguodala gave Lebron a lot of trouble in last year's final.
Unit2Sucks
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sycasey;842696809 said:

And frankly, last year's Finals proved that those guys weren't a great match for the Warriors' smallball lineup. Mozgov has also been pretty bad this season after a good showing last season. I wouldn't expect him to get much run.


Yes which is why they are so excited about Frye for their small ball lineup. Even in the last three games of the finals though Thompson averaged like 15 points, 11 rebounds and 5 offensive rebounds per game so we didn't really shut him down.

mikecohen;842696966 said:

Picking on one point: Iguodala gave Lebron a lot of trouble in last year's final.


Yes, Iggy did a good job making Bron's life harder. He still ended up with big numbers but on high volume. Point was Ws can win this series even with Bron going off as long as we win the other match ups. I give Iggy a ton of credit for what he did last year but it's not like he shut down Lebron. He just made him work a lot harder. Lebron still had a heck of a series.
south bender
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Unit2Sucks;842697008 said:

Yes which is why they are so excited about Frye for their small ball lineup. Even in the last three games of the finals though Thompson averaged like 15 points, 11 rebounds and 5 offensive rebounds per game so we didn't really shut him down.



Yes, Iggy did a good job making Bron's life harder. He still ended up with big numbers but on high volume. Point was Ws can win this series even with Bron going off as long as we win the other match ups. I give Iggy a ton of credit for what he did last year but it's not like he shut down Lebron. He just made him work a lot harder. Lebron still had a heck of a series.


Good observations.

In reality, hard to know how the series will go. I think J.R. Smith is a wild card. Should he go off on a hot streak, he will shake things up and spread the floor.

On the Dubs, if Steph continues to look like himself--as he certainly did in the last quarter of the last game against OKC--I doubt that there is a scenario for the Cavs to win the series.

We have not seen a team that has the answer for Curry at the top of his game.
bearister
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Taking a charge from LeBron could be a career or life ending experience.
gobears
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GSW down 3 - 1 to a very strong OKC team and then pulling out 3 W's in row will prepare team for the Cavs who coasted into the finals.

GSW will P n R Love possession after possession.. Don't get me wrong, Love is a fine player.. just cannot stay with Curry and his step backs from 25.


Westbrook and Roberson on P n R defend better than Kyrie... so, expect GSW to P n R Kyrie the entire series with Love to get the matchups GSW wants.

With that said, if I were the Cavs, I would P n R Kyrie and Lebron with Steph and Iggy. Steph goes under, Kyrie shoots.. If Steph goes high, Lebron seals him and takes Steph down to low block.. No weak side help, Lebron shoots over Steph or make Steph foul...(goal is to get Steph off court with foul trouble) help from weak side, Lebron dishes to open looks on weak side.. Force GSW to react and make adjustments.
Steph is fine on ball and plays passing lanes well.. but make Steph guard Lebron on low block time after time.

For both GSW and Cavs, the P n R to help create matchups that be to their advantage is not to be run "every play".. as then, other players can tend to watch the 2 and not move. Much of GSW O is constant movement, back cuts that then lead to easy buckets.. But similar to leaving Tony Allen free and daring him to shoot in last years playoffs as well as hack a bad FT shooter.. you try it and if it works, you keep going at that player until the other team changes or it stops working.

The classic P n R is Stockton and Malone/Jazz... where year after year after year, no matter how often, how many times one would play the Jazz, it always seemed to work.





Never expected OKC to dominate GSW as they did in games 3 and 4.. so, I cannot predict how well the Cavs will play..

Just glad GSW has home court advantage in finals. (sure needed it against OKC)

goGSW
goBears
okaydo
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beelzebear
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bearister;842697250 said:

Taking a charge from LeBron could be a career or life ending experience.


I read somewhere that LeBron will be guarding Green and is going to go at him. Should be fun to watch. Wonder if he tries and kick King James in the nuts.
bearister
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beelzebear;842697583 said:

...,....Wonder if he tries and kick King James in the nuts.


I believe you can lodge that in the "end of life experience" category.
okaydo
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Cleveland is hanging with San Francisco.

BearClause
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beelzebear;842697583 said:

I read somewhere that LeBron will be guarding Green and is going to go at him. Should be fun to watch. Wonder if he tries and kick King James in the nuts.


Is Dellavedirty's grab of Igoudala's family jewels count? If there's any justice, the NBA office upgrades that to a flagrant 1. Not sure if that can be done.
sycasey
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So Steph and Klay have crap games and the Cavs still get smoked by Livingston and Barbosa. This probably does not bode well for Cleveland.
ducky23
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BearClause;842697634 said:

Is Dellavedirty's grab of Igoudala's family jewels count? If there's any justice, the NBA office upgrades that to a flagrant 1. Not sure if that can be done.


Thanks for giving the dubs motivation delly. Cause before that they were sleepwalking.
concordtom
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okaydo;842697557 said:




You've gotta be kidding me.
Is that today??
Who took it?
concordtom
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Well, I am underwhelmed by the Cavs tonight.
Surprisingly so.
Barbosa and Livingston and Barnes played above themselves so if they come back to earth, maybe it's a toss up.

Keep going, W's.
75bear
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sycasey;842697640 said:

So Steph and Klay have crap games and the Cavs still get smoked by Livingston and Barbosa. This probably does not bode well for Cleveland.


This was my exact thought also. There's no way Steph & Klay have another poor shooting performance this egregious in the series.

Then again, the Warrior bench won't have as great a game as they did tonight.

But yes, the Cavs need to do some soul searching before things snowball.
 
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