Cal vs USF, 2018 and 2019 games compared

1,297 Views | 5 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by HoopDreams
SFCityBear
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Last season, as we all remember, USF, led by point guard Frankie Ferrari, beat Cal at Haas, 79-60, a 19 point blowout. Cal was down 10 at the half, and lost by 19. A few days ago, USF, minus Frankie Ferrari who had graduated, beat Cal in the USF gym, 76-64. The game was closer, and was tied at halftime, on a nice Cal run, with USF pulling away early in the second half for the win.

Here are some interesting comparative stats from the two games:

FG%: Cal held USF to 41% in Wednesday's game, and 49% in last year's blowout. USF shot better this year on threes, 41%, and last year shot 37% on threes. Cal held USF to 41% on two-point shots this year, whereas last year USF shot an excellent 59% on twos against Cal. What this may tell us is that in spite of Jimbo Lull's improved performance (20 points in 2019, and 14 points in 2018) Cal did a better defensive job on defending two-pointers last Wednesday, and that Cal did not do as well defending the three this year as they did last year. It may also be that USF just got hot this year from three.

Cal shot 42% in this year's game, compared to 39% in 2018. Cal shot 29% on threes this year, and 30% in last year's game. Cal shot two pointers at 47% this year, and 46% last year.

Field Goal Attempts: USF put up 58 shots on Wednesday, compared to 59 last year. Cal put up only 50 shots, compared to 49 last year. Cal as a rule does not put up enough shots, and does not get enough open shots when we do shoot.

Three point attempts: USF had 29 attempts this year, and 27 attempts in 2018. Cal had only 14 attempts this year, compared with 23 attempts in 2018. USF's perimeter defense smothered Cal in this year's game.

Rebounds: The battle for the boards was almost dead even. Last year, both teams had 38 rebounds, and this year, it was Cal with 30 rebounds to 29 for USF.

Assists: With Ferrari in 2018, USF had 16 assists. Without him this year, USF had 12. Cal had 12 assists last year, and only 6 assists this year.

Turnovers: USF committed 11 turnovers in this year's game, and 10 last year. Cal committed our usual 15 turnovers in this year's game, and 12 in last year's game.

Steals: Cal had 7 steals this year, compared to 3 last year.

Here is a comparison of the players Fox inherited from Wyking Jones in the two games. Bradley played better in this year's game than he had in last year's game, but he did not have a good game by his standards. Kelly, Austin, and Gordon played better in 2018.

Bradley 2019: 11 PTs, 4 of 10, 3 rebounds. 2018: 5 PTs, 2of 8, 3 rebounds
Kelly 2019: 9 PTs, 3 of 3, 5 rebounds. 2018: 17 PTs, 5 of 7, 9 rebounds
Austin 2019: 4 PTs, 2 Assists, 2 TOs, 6 rebounds. 2018: 6 PTs, 8 Assists, 5 TOs
Gordon 2019: 4 PTs, 1 of 1, no rebounds. 2018: 10 PTs, 2 of 5, 5 rebounds
Harris-Dyson 2019: 2 PTs, 2 rebounds. 2018: No PTs, no rebounds
Anticevich 2019: 6 PTs, 3-7, 5 rebounds. 2018: Did not play in the USF game

In general, according to these stats, it looks like Cal was better defensively vs USF this year, in spite of shoddy three point defense. Offensively, Cal shot a little better than last year, but in both games, Cal did not put up enough shots and shot threes well below their own average. Not enough assists in both games and too many turnovers in both games.

It is troubling that some of the veterans performed well below the level that they performed in last year's game. It may be due to the fact that they are not starting or getting as many minutes. I suspect this will change. I think Fox has given the newcomers opportunities to start and play more minutes, in order to evaluate them and see what they can do. Kelly and Austin started vs Santa Clara, and may be back in starting roles, and Gordon getting more time, to get them all ready for the conference games.





bearister
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It is really interesting how stats don't always support a person's perception of a game he just watched.
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SFCityBear
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bearister said:

It is really interesting how stats don't always support a person's perception of a game he just watched.
I think the perception of the game we watched was accurate, and so are the stats. We stunk in both game and box score, but historical memories are short, especially memories of bad games, and we simply don't remember too well how badly we lost to USF last year.
HoopDreams
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I think a factor when comparing this year's players, with the same players last year was the focus of our offense

last year our main guns were Sueing and McNeil (in the early season)

I also remember Kelly being a feature player early in the year too

therefore defenses might have been focusing less on Matt and Grant last year
Civil Bear
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SFCityBear said:

bearister said:

It is really interesting how stats don't always support a person's perception of a game he just watched.
I think the perception of the game we watched was accurate, and so are the stats. We stunk in both game and box score, but historical memories are short, especially memories of bad games, and we simply don't remember too well how badly we lost to USF last year.

All I remember from last year was Ferrari looking like the second coming of Steve Nash. Without him USF is a different team, and so I'm not sure a comparison is of much use.
calbearinamaze
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Civil Bear said:

SFCityBear said:

.

All I remember from last year was Ferrari looking like the second coming of Steve Nash. Without him USF is a different team, and so I'm not sure a comparison is of much use.
*Steve Nash........me too. Seemed like Frankie got 20+. But he only had 9 points, shooting 1 for 5 from three.
It just seemed like every shot was going in.

He did have 7 assists and 5 rebounds, so,,,,,,,,,,,,


*Scroll down a bit for a really good interview....(Kyle Smith: data and character-driven coaching)

https://247sports.com/college/washington-state/Article/Washington-State-basketball-coach-Kyle-Smiths-old-USF-point-guard-Frankie-Ferrari-Data-Raid-136658257/
HoopDreams
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Great read on analytics. Here are some key sections:

Assists, deflections, virtual assists. Which is basically an assist to someone that doesn't finish the play but it leads to a bucket.

Missed box-outs, box-outs, good defensive and offensive rotations. A rotation cover-down on a box-out. Good offensive cuts. We also had two checks in turnovers, either a turnover or a bad turnover. Foul drawn, fouling on the defense was a negative.

Besides conventional stats there are hustle stats....blocking out, you lose two points if you get blown by baseline, you lose a couple points if you miss a block out. If you make an extra pass to get a guy a shot, we call that a hockey assist, anytime you get the ball off a drive, off a cut, off a screen, or in the paint you get another point, we call it a paint touch

bearup said:

Civil Bear said:

SFCityBear said:

.

All I remember from last year was Ferrari looking like the second coming of Steve Nash. Without him USF is a different team, and so I'm not sure a comparison is of much use.
*Steve Nash........me too. Seemed like Frankie got 20+. But he only had 9 points, shooting 1 for 5 from three.
It just seemed like every shot was going in.

He did have 7 assists and 5 rebounds, so,,,,,,,,,,,,


*Scroll down a bit for a really good interview....(Kyle Smith: data and character-driven coaching)

https://247sports.com/college/washington-state/Article/Washington-State-basketball-coach-Kyle-Smiths-old-USF-point-guard-Frankie-Ferrari-Data-Raid-136658257/

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