time to predict score: st. marys 76-63.

helltopay1 said:

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time to predict score: st. marys 76-63.

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I am unprepared to predict a score at this time.Below is an analysis of options from the godisagael board. Would someone please provide a similar analysis for CAL. Thank you in advance.
• Throw it to Ford or Fitts on a wing and clear out the strong side so they can beat their man and score (AKA last year's offense). Similarly Krebs sometimes decides to just take his guy off the bounce, but that tends to happen without the strong side getting cleared out so much.
• High pick and roll for Kuhse/Tass works against some teams, but teams are starting to work out they don't need to worry about TK shooting most nights. Zoriks is also doing some of this. For whatever reason Ford/Tass doesn't seem to work so well most of the time.
• High pick and roll to get Ford open for layups/floaters/threes. (Zoriks also doing some of this)
• Menzies on the left block just beats some teams
• Tass on the left block feeding cutters/shooters. Sometimes this opens up his offense too.
• Spread pick-and-roll for Kuhse/Ford drive and dish works sometimes
• Push the ball in transition and let Ford get to the bucket or find a shooter in the corner works sometimes.
• Various weave actions that usually end in a drive or a drive and dish/kick.
• Do anything in the paint (post, drive whatever) and throw it out to shooters (Krebs please!) for catch and shoot threes.

When things are going badly I think part of the problem seems to me to be when Tass is on the bench or is "off", then none of the other screening options are much of a threat to score (roll or pop). So the defense can just load up on the ball carrier (Ford/Kuhse/Zoriks). I'd love to see some Fotu or events Fitts pick and pop. You know that's what we'll get if Perry gets healthy.


I'd say the usual 2020 Gaels offense seems to be something like:
1) Run some motion and get the ball, players and defense moving. Weave, handoffs, high-post entries etc. often get the ball on the right wing, then swing it around to the left for a post entry. Usually want the ball to get to the left block at least once. Take any really good look that occurs, Or...
2) Run whatever the "best" high pick-and-roll option is on the floor. Take any good layup/floater or open 3 this generates. Or...
3) Now its later in the shot clock, throw it to Ford or Fitts on a wing, clear it out and let them go to work. Or...
4) This is bad. At best it is a somewhat open catch and shoot 3. At worst its contested, rushed (often both) shot or shot-clock violation.


When 1) is working it looks like traditional Gaels basketball. High assist totals, spread of scorers, often a hot 3-point shooter having a big night. (Cal Poly)
When 2) is working things still look pretty good because the Gaels are generally very good at high pick and roll. Either high scoring assist night for a PG, with decent numbers for an outside shooter. (Long Beach)... this hasn't been a strength of the 2020 Gaels.
When 3) is working Fitts/Ford look like superstars and the rest of the team doesn't score much. (Wisconsin)
When 4) is "working" Krebs or Fitts are going off with late in the clock triples, the team remembers that they can get hot and they feed them the ball until something else starts working.

helltopay1 said:

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time to predict score: st. marys 76-63.

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More accurate than the 8.5 point spread and I wouldn't find it shameful. Unless St. Mary's has an off night combined with us playing hard, it is probably going to be worse.*


*My predictions have been a reverse barometer with this team so maybe there's hope. We need 35 points from MB.

i will predict 80-60.

I predict 52 to 37 with 16:57 left in game. I posted this yesterday.

I predicted St. Marys by 13----they won by 12--i must be slipping--Special thanks to Martin for not recruiting Ford. Unless Fox recruits a quality PG for next year, Cal goes 0-32.

Cal rarely seems to have perimeter players who can penetrate off the dribble and create.

helltopay1 said:

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I predicted St. Marys by 13----they won by 12--i must be slipping--Special thanks to Martin for not recruiting Ford. Unless Fox recruits a quality PG for next year, Cal goes 0-32.

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Unless Fox and staff are connecting with
high-schoolers,
JUCOs,
transfers from other schools who can play right away
Grad Transfer prospects
other????

it MAY be too late quite soon.

helltopay1 said:

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I predicted St. Marys by 13----they won by 12--i must be slipping--

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Kudos!

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Special thanks to Martin for not recruiting Ford. Unless Fox recruits a quality PG for next year, Cal goes 0-32.

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Is that an official prediction? If do how do we prejudge any PG Fox might recruit?

stu said:

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helltopay1 said:

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I predicted St. Marys by 13----they won by 12--i must be slipping--

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Kudos!

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Special thanks to Martin for not recruiting Ford. Unless Fox recruits a quality PG for next year, Cal goes 0-32.

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Is that an official prediction? If do how do we prejudge any PG Fox might recruit?

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Simple. If Fox recruits him, he must be mediocre.

UrsaMajor said:

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stu said:

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helltopay1 said:

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I predicted St. Marys by 13----they won by 12--i must be slipping--

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Kudos!

Quote:

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Special thanks to Martin for not recruiting Ford. Unless Fox recruits a quality PG for next year, Cal goes 0-32.

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Is that an official prediction? If do how do we prejudge any PG Fox might recruit?

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Simple. If Fox recruits him, he must be mediocre.

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I recommend he get right on that.....

https://www.scout.com/Season/2020-Basketball/RecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=HighSchool&Position=PGt

I predicted StM by 18.5.
Bears beat the spread and win.
Go Bears!

dear yaks: did we see your prediction in print prior to the game??what did Reagan say????" trust but verify."
Dear Ursa: You're not bailing so soon are you?? i gave to admit that the early returns are not encouraging. The three!!!!!!!top players bail and the incoming replacements are barely WCC players. i suppose South is a WCC player but Lars, Kuany and Thorpe and Brown will have to improve to be legit WCC players. So, as the legal eagles say, " not dispositive but highly suspect." memo to the AD: There are no do-overs . Any regrets?? As a rule, african-american players are not prone to giving hard-nosed coaches thge benefit off the doubt unless the coach in question has a good or terrific track record. Let's not sugarcoat this..Recruiting so far: a generous C-
Coaching so far: Incomplete

first of all, a lot of the players on this team are freshmen and soph, in the early third of the season

give them some time to develop, get stronger, and learn the schemes

Dear Hoops: A turkey dressed in a business suit is still a turkey. Miracles haven't been in existence since the New Testament. A C- minus player might develop into a C player with time & good coaching, but you'll forgive me if I insist on dismissing wishful thinking. As a practioneer of wishful thinking all my life, I'm familiar with the species. I'm from Missouri------show me!!!!

helltopay1 said:

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Let's not sugarcoat this..Recruiting so far: a generous C-

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It's tough for a new coach to recruit in the spring long after the better-known players have committed elsewhere. Fox could have done a lot worse than get 1 decent grad transfer and 3 international players who might be much better in a couple of years.

Fox's fall recruits don't look like impact players as freshmen but it's way too early to tell how they'll develop. And Fox recruited them to a bottom-dwelling program after just 6 months on the job and no track record. I expect us to sign a spring 2020 recruit but again our choices will be limited.

IMHO the first real tests of Fox's recruiting will be:
1) fall 2020 after he has had time to get going and has a program to sell.
2) how his earlier recruits develop, i.e. how well he can judge talent.

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Coaching so far: Incomplete

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I agree it's too soon to assign a grade. But if you want a progress report I'd say much better than Jones and better than Martin.

dear stu: evidence?????

helltopay1 said:

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dear stu: evidence?????

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I'm seeing some semblance of an offense with respectable shooting percentages. However I don't like the low ratios of of assists to turnovers and assists to made baskets or the low number of offensive rebounds.

On defense I'm seeing more consistent effort. I think we still look disorganized but that's partly attributable to a new coach with only a few players who had previously been on the court together.

I'm also seeing what I would consider reasonable substitution patterns and signs the coach is engaged during the games.

It's difficult to impossible for me to separate coaching from player performance but I think we're weak at passing and rebounding due to the current skills of our players. It will take a couple of years to see how they develop under Fox and company so I can't comment on that aspect of his coaching.

It's easy to argue Martin had a lot more talent to work with but his offenses didn't look all that slick to me. Also I'm not sure I saw much skill development during Martin's time but that could be due to having so many new players every year. Again it's too soon to tell how Fox will do with roster stability.

Jones didn't have much talent but I didn't get the impression he was well organized or coached up the players he had (except Vanover). I'd have a better idea if he had been retained another year. And I'll have more to say about Fox after a couple of seasons.

Dear Stu: Good post. I respect it.