calumnus said:
SFCityBear said:
calumnus said:
(Using Recent):
1. Colorado (12-2) #13
2. Oregon (12-3) #16
3. Arizona (11-3) #31
4. Stanford (12-2) #36
5. USC (12-2) #41
6. Utah (10-4) #65
7. UW (10-4) #69
8. ASU (9-5) #102
9. OSU (10-3) #123
10. WSU (10-5) #126
11. UCLA (7-7) #192
12. Cal (6-8) #219
PAC-12 is currently the #6 conference and depending how league play goes could see 5 teams make the Tournament.
The only consolation for Cal fans is UCLA is almost as bad and they don't have our practice in lowering expectations. How is it this is the year we only play UCLA once and only at Pauley?
This weekend is probably our best opportunity for another win this season.
I thought Sagarin's system considered wins and losses and victory margin, but any system that would rank Stanford as #36 doesn't seem to factor in the strength of one's opponents. Stanford has played only one AP-ranked team, Kansas, and got clobbered by them, and has played NO other good teams so far.
Cal has already beaten three teams ranked ahead of them on this list, Cal Baptist (by 20 points), UC Davis, and Fresno State. Why should we listen to Sagarin?
Sagarin uses all the games, who you played, who your opponents played, who they in turn played...it is an internal mathematical algorithm and does not rely on the AP (though AP voters may peek at Sagarin). It becomes more reliable as the season progresses and there is more data available. The Recent measure also uses all the games, but weights the more recent games more heavily.
However, for specific examples:
Sagarin thinks Butler (14-1, 1st place in the Big East) is good (#4 in Recent) and Stanford lost to them by 1 point on a "neutral" court in the Midwest. Stanford lost by 20 to Kansas (Jerod Haase's Alma Mayer), but Sagarin has them #2. Those are Stanford's only two losses.
They beat Oklahoma who is 10-3 and Sagarin ranks at #44 by 19 points.
#36 is not a stretch at all.
I don't know Sagarin from saccharin, but from what I read, he has not fully released his method for ranking to the public. I used AP Polls because they were conveniently listed in sports-reference for Stanford and their opponents in Stanford's schedule. I prefer using the Coaches' poll in both basketball and football, because I figure they are coaches and should be able to evaluate most of the better teams, even if some of them maybe can't compete with those teams themselves. Of course, they could all be Wykings, and that might not make for a good poll.
Stanford played Oklahoma on Nov 25, and at that time neither Stanford or Oklahoma was ranked in the Coaches' top 25. Stanford played Butler on Nov 26, and at that time neither Stanford or Butler was ranked in the Coaches' top 25. The following week of Dec 6, Butler became ranked in the Coaches' poll at #24, and has moved steadily upward in ranking to #6 in the latest Coaches' poll of Jan 6. Both Stanford and Oklahoma remain unranked in this current poll.
Wouldn't it be more accurate and fair to compare Sagarin's ranking of Butler, Oklahoma, and Stanford for the day before they played each other, rather then the current Sagarin rankings, which supposedly tell us how good the teams are now, 6 weeks after they played each other? Game rosters could have changed, and teams could have improved, stayed the same, or are not as good as they were back in November.
I can't seem to find the Sagarin rankings for Nov 24 or earlier, before Stanford played Oklahoma, and Butler. Do you have a link?
