Oregon St.
Oregon
Stanford
Cal
ASU
UCLA
USC
Utah
Washington
Arizona
WSU
Colorado

Here is my pre season prediction mostly based off rosters. I think the Oregon schools and Stanford are all final 4 contenders. Asu the LA schools and Cal will be battling for the 4th spot. And everyone else is just a half step behind. I think this will be a very competitive season and no teams should be overlooked.
Any other guesses?
Go bears!

Sounds about right.

I believe Wednesday is Pac-12 Media Day for WBB, so we'll see what the coaches and media think.

Go Bears!!

I think that Arizona will start to make some noise. With freshmen and transfers, they will be inconsistent.' But they do seem to be getting a solid talent infusion.

I also think that we are impossible to rank until we can see our style of play with this roster and whether Kristine can stay on the court. Could be a big year for us, but it is not going to happen automatically.

BearPedz said:

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Oregon St.
Oregon
Stanford
Cal
ASU
UCLA
USC
Utah
Washington
Arizona
WSU
Colorado

Here is my pre season prediction mostly based off rosters. I think the Oregon schools and Stanford are all final 4 contenders. Asu the LA schools and Cal will be battling for the 4th spot. And everyone else is just a half step behind. I think this will be a very competitive season and no teams should be overlooked.
Any other guesses?
Go bears!

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My top five in order :

Oregon
Stanford
Cal
Oregon State
ASU


Oregon state drops down because he does not replace Gulich and Ruecks style of offense requires an exceptional Gulich type of player year in and year out. He will have to adapt a different style, can he do that?

GOLDEN said:

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BearPedz said:

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.

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My top five in order :

Oregon
Stanford
Cal
Oregon State
ASU


Oregon state drops down because he does not replace Gulich and Ruecks style of offense requires an exceptional Gulich type of player year in and year out. He will have to adapt a different style, can he do that?

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While it is true that Oregon St might drop down due to the unknown post player factor, I disagree the Ruecks style of play requires a total Gulich replacement. Their style begins with and relies on 3pt shooting and they have that. The center they had previously to her Hamblin was a defensive presence but not close to the offensive player Gulich was. Also in her Jr year Gulich was not the dominant player she was last year yet they tied for the conference championship. That team relied too much on Weise for offense and when she went cold they lost to Stanford in the Conf. finals and did not advance in the Regionals. Wiese went 1 for 11 in against Florida St. They had other scoring threats but did not attempt to use them.

If they can get rebounding and defensive play out of their posts they will be OK. They should be able to find that with 3 prospects to work with. Aquino also has good outside range and a 6'9" parameter shooter who can also pass will be hard to match ups against. Of course she has yet to face the level of talent that D1 presents let alone the Pac 12.

How good they end up being this season depends on how quickly they develop their Frosh posts. Also if Gremek their 6'8" back up last season has improved. She was basically a freshman since she transferred in from Jr Collage. Cal might have a real hard time matching up with them, because of their inside length. They might be hard to score against in the post. Lobs in to Anigwe will be very difficult. It will require penetration and outside shooting to open up the inside. Two aspects the Bears have not excelled in. In basketball match ups are very important. Fortunately they only play the Oregon schools one next season.

I just don't think you can live and die by the three alone as your primary scheme. With several of the the games they lost last year Gulich was fairly contained and they were ice cold from the outside.


Gotta have a post that can score to keep the defenders in. Hamblin was not half bad for a big girl. I think anyone in the pac-12 would have been happy to have her.

Last year, OSU's problem was they couldn't deal with quick guards.
UCLA undressed them. They got better but their guards in the past were more well rounded.

In fact OSU was last in the conference in turnover margin at -5.30 per game.

wvitbear said:

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In fact OSU was last in the conference in turnover margin at -5.30 per game

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Yes that was their weakness. They were playing an off guard who hadn't played the point since grammer school. Not only did they have a lot of turnovers but their ball movement while not terrible could have been better. There ball handlers seemed to have limited court vision. They tended to keep the ball on one side of the court which got their ball handlers caught in traps. Pivec got much better towards the end of the season which is why they made it to the elite eight. Gulish also tended to put the ball up every time she got the ball inside when it might have been better to kick it back out to a shooter or for a reset. When your team shoots over 400 percent on three's those are high percentage shots.

Now this season they will have a legit point. The former national freshman of the year two seasons ago Slocum. She should make a big difference to their team. Ball movement is especially important to a team that has multiple outside shooters. One thing I noticed about Aquino is that she seems to have good court vision. Not being focused on offense at this stage can often be an advantage. You think pass first and take your shots in the context of offensive flow. In this respect she will be an upgrade over Gulish. It might take them a while to get it together, but come March they could make some noise. I think next year they will be really tough.

willtalk said:

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wvitbear said:

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In fact OSU was last in the conference in turnover margin at -5.30 per game

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I think next year they will be really tough.

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One of the real points in this discussion is the Pac-12 is getting tougher and tougher, It is about half the Pac-12 that is continually raising the bar and the others are staying even.

With the right bracket this is a Sweet 16/Elite 8 team IMO.

Now next year...well...

The key is perimeter shooting, and if Reece Caldwell is the answer, then optimism is justified. The fact that Caldwell shot 24% from three last year, however, is cause for (more than a little) concern.

Asha Thomas was at 35%, which is fine, but her size makes it hard for her to get consistent good looks. The return of Mi'Cole Cayton is great, but she shot 27% as a freshman. Otherwise, Anigwe and Jaelyn Brown were the best shooters.

It's very difficult to win without a way to spread the floor to give Anigwe room to work and guards to penetrate. A step forward across the board in three-point shooting seems to be the key to the season -- but right now, that's more a roll of the dice than a sure thing.

Yes, I agree. However, wasn't Recee badly injured last year? If her shoulder is healthy i'd expect her numbers to be closer to the previous year.

Time will tell!

J Brown shot 37.9 %. Led the team in those who shot a lot. Anigwe shot over 50 % but didn't launch a lot.

wvitbear said:

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J Brown shot 37.9 %. Led the team in those who shot a lot. Anigwe shot over 50 % but didn't launch a lot.

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If Cal has to rely on Brown and Anigwe for three-point shooting, it's going to be a long season.

ClayK said:

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wvitbear said:

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J Brown shot 37.9 %. Led the team in those who shot a lot. Anigwe shot over 50 % but didn't launch a lot.

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If Cal has to rely on Brown and Anigwe for three-point shooting, it's going to be a long season.

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It will be a five-out offense, and only two players will actually cross mid court.

It seems that a lot of fairly decent out side shooters percentages drop considerable when they get to Cal. I would suspect that it is because most of the parameter shots are desperation attempts with the shot clock running down. Most of the shot clock was usually used to try to set up the Agnew. If they focused more on setting up some parameter shots via ball movement I am sure those percentages would go up. In respect to recruiting better shooters that sort becomes a catch 22 factor as well. Shooters see that their type of player is not successful at Cal.

Last year, our ball movement was a bit better with Anigwe flashing out some to the post. But we still spent a lot of time looking around, dribbling and then telegraphing passes. And the post was still pretty much a black hole once it did go inside. Although things actually appeared a bit more fluid when CJ West was in and she was just trying to fit into the flow. With this roster, let's hope that our coaches have figured out something quite different for this year.

Cal was third in the Pac 12 last year in 3 point per cent age. Brown was only one part of that group. there was no one person that led it. Actually, Cowling and Brown shot better at Cal than as high schoolers.

I mentioned Anigwe improved because last year at the open practice, I noted she was shooting a lot of threes and was doing pretty good. She didn't shoot enough threes in the regular season to draw a conclusion.

I view that there are 5 or 6 potential shooters and that on a given night several can be hot. The open practice will tell us a lot.

Oregon, Oregon State & Stanford are the top three teams in the pac 12. ASU handled Cal 2x last season and the Sun Devils return everyone. The Bears have nobody that can guard Ibia. She completely took over one of the games and scored 30+ points. Arizona State & Cal should fight it out for 4th and 5th. UCLA & USC are not far behind and could surprise... I believe that Colorado and Utah should be competitive, too. The bottom three teams would appear to be Arizona, Washington State and Washington.

Cal (& Stanford) plays two sets of teams ONLY once this season. The Bears get perhaps the toughest two opponents, Oregon & Oregon State, in Berkeley. They face the two Rocky Mountain teams, Utah & Colorado,
at altitude. GO BEARS!

Schroeder71 said:

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Oregon, Oregon State & Stanford are the top three teams in the pac 12. ASU handled Cal 2x last season and the Sun Devils return everyone. The Bears have nobody that can guard Ibia. She completely took over one of the games and scored 30+ points. Arizona State & Cal should fight it out for 4th and 5th. UCLA & USC are not far behind and could surprise... I believe that Colorado and Utah should be competitive, too. The bottom three teams would appear to be Arizona, Washington State and Washington.

Cal (& Stanford) plays two sets of teams ONLY once this season. The Bears get perhaps the toughest two opponents, Oregon & Oregon State, in Berkeley. They face the two Rocky Mountain teams, Utah & Colorado,
at altitude. GO BEARS!

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You mean Ibis? She had 26 against the Bears in Tempe and 11 points in Berkeley. Let's wait and see about guarding her this season.

ASU seems less an issue of individual players and more a case of how Turner-Thorne optimizes what she has and comes up with effective game plans. In our first game last year, ASU had 23 assists against only 4 TO's. In the second game, we hit on only 2 of 19 three pointers against their defense. We just haven't looked quite fully prepared for whatever they have been throwing at us.

I would not underestimate the ability of Tara or Thorne to make lemonade out of lemons.

ASU is also adding one top level freshman this year - 6'1" Iris Mbulito, who was the MVP for Spain's U20 European Women's Champinship Team last season, putting up 20 points and 12 rebounds in the finals game against Serbia.

wifeisafurd said:

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I would not underestimate the ability of Tara or Thorne to make lemonade out of lemons.

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Over the past 10 years Stanford has lead the conference in recruiting. ASU is eighth.

A surprisingly number of the 28 top rated recruits for Stanford the past 10 years ended up as lemons.

GATC said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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I would not underestimate the ability of Tara or Thorne to make lemonade out of lemons.

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Over the past 10 years Stanford has lead the conference in recruiting. ASU is eighth.

A surprisingly number of the 28 top rated recruits for Stanford the past 10 years ended up as lemons.

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Very true about some end up as lemons. Some never make the full transition from high school to college. Maybe 50% pan out as advertised? What do you think?

GATC said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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I would not underestimate the ability of Tara or Thorne to make lemonade out of lemons.

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Over the past 10 years Stanford has lead the conference in recruiting. ASU is eighth.

A surprisingly number of the 28 top rated recruits for Stanford the past 10 years ended up as lemons.

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Actually a lot of those 28 never enrolled. Your right that several five stars have not panned out for Furd that did enroll. In fact, in terms of who plays, Cal's ratings are not far off Furd's.

Looking at the current Furd roster, you have an amazing dichotomy of talent with 7 five star recruits and 7 three star recruits (using Hoopgurlz). Never seen anything like it. Thorne seems to get more "blue collar" talent, but always has her team at the top level of the conference. Underrated coach. Looking at the last 5 years, I suspect UCLA probably is top in conference recruiting, with Furd second. Cal is near the top rosters, with 5 five stars, 5 four stars, and 1 three star (on a starter basis, maybe a higher average star rating than Furd, depending on who starts). Cal also has 3 walk-ons who are unrated, as Cal often does not use all available schoolies, which is another discussion.

wifeisafurd said:

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GATC said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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I would not underestimate the ability of Tara or Thorne to make lemonade out of lemons.

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Over the past 10 years Stanford has lead the conference in recruiting. ASU is eighth.

A surprisingly number of the 28 top rated recruits for Stanford the past 10 years ended up as lemons.

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Actually a lot of those 28 never enrolled. Your right that several five stars have not panned out for Furd that did enroll. In fact, in terms of who plays, Cal's ratings are not far off Furd's.

Looking at the current Furd roster, you have an amazing dichotomy of talent with 7 five star recruits and 7 three star recruits (using Hoopgurlz). Never seen anything like it. Thorne seems to get more "blue collar" talent, but always has her team at the top level of the conference. Underrated coach. Looking at the last 5 years, I suspect UCLA probably is top in conference recruiting, with Furd second. Cal is near the top rosters, with 5 five stars, 5 four stars, and 1 three star (on a starter basis, maybe a higher average star rating than Furd, depending on who starts). Cal also has 3 walk-ons who are unrated, as Cal often does not use all available schoolies, which is another discussion.

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Good point. Actually when I looked at the list of top rated Stanford recruits and noticed that many didn't play, I thought they were so bad they sat on the bench. I didn't realize that some of them did not enroll.

With all the new coaches that have come in the past few years this is becoming a coaches conference just like in football.

Not using all available scholarships is not a bad thing as long as we have a balanced roster (position, eligibility) and enough backups to fill the rotation in case of injuries. When you have recruiting years where we get 2 scholarship players then 1 scholarship player, people get concerned.

Hoping the Bears do better this season. Trojans should finish in the middle of the 12 as well. IDK why most of you don't have them higher in your predictions

2100MLK said:

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Hoping the Bears do better this season. Trojans should finish in the middle of the 12 as well. IDK why most of you don't have them higher in your predictions

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IDK either. They lost 9 conference games last year (2 to us, 2 to Stanford, 2 to UCLA, 2 to Oregon (but they lost one game in double OT), 1 to OSU but beat them at home in the other game). If Overbeck adequately replaces Simon and Mariya Moore replaces Edward's scoring (which she should do easily), they will be tough. Jones is coming back from injury and she hurt us 2 years ago and can defend Anigwe. One can argue that they are better this season than last.

I don't think there is much space between Stanford, ASU, USC, Cal and UCLA (my 3 thru 7). And we can easily struggle with the other teams. I suspect that we will live and die with the 3 this year as most conference team can keep Anigwe from dominating. Running could be an advantage as we have 5 players that can lead a break and 3 or 4 will be on the court at the same time.