(Adjusted Season prediction--hey Blueblood did it for football! Revision #3-post UConn)
Sure Loss: @UConn-L @Stan (20),@Ore St. (30),@Ore (13), Ore (25)
Stan(35), UCLA(47), @utes (44), @Ariz St. (31), @AZ (45)
@ Harv (L), Kty (65),Utah (65), @Wazzu (62), USC (67), @Colo (65), Ore. St. (65)
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Possible win-UC Riv (95), SDS (90), Ark (75), NC Central (99), Boston U (97), Grand Cyn (99), Colo (84), LBSt (80) wash (52) Penn St. (55) Wazzu (60)
Projected OOC 8-2
Projected Con 3-15

How to read the adjusted W-L percentages: anything under 50% is the chance to win. Anything over that is the %chance of a loss.
The possible wins remain the same.

The PAC-12 women's coaches picked us for 11th place. Last year's 11th place team, Washington finished at 2-15 in the conference. I think we can do better than that, but it is not going to be easy. There are now excellent coaches and good recruiting classes at all of these schools. We will need some freshman surprises to really move up this year.

I think you are way to optimistic.

If CAL could consistently make 3 pointers, I would be more optimistic. However, I really like this team win or lose. Charmin has them moving the ball down court at a fast pace. I loved C.J. smiles and positive comments about this team during the post game press conference. They appear to be cohesive on and off of the court. I am so happy that everyone has played. The freshman are contributing to this team, which lacks experience and depth. I hope Cal Fans will come to Haas and support this team eager for victories this season....GO BEARS!!!

This could be a fun year, regardless of record. Charmin and staff aren't playing with as many high cards as other programs, but instilling a culture and attitude that will win down the road is really the most important thing.

If the Bears battle night in and night out, and play smart (if not necessarily that well), the season can be counted a success.

Of course, signing a few more elite players would be nice too ...

Remember when UCLA had that great class that was number one in the country. They prepared a very tough schedule and were beaten handily getting a losing record but did make the WNIT and won it. Our class is not as good as that one so I feel if we could win around 7 games I would be happy. But like Clay said, how they play is more important that the wins. And of course everyone on this board will be attending the games.

This season is all about setting up our (very) bright future. If we even hit 10 wins I will be happy.

When you say winning 7 games do you mean total season? Surely Cal women's hoops is not doing a "Wyking Jones" this year?

CalFanatic said:

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This season is all about setting up our (very) bright future. If we even hit 10 wins I will be happy.

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Are the reprecussions of LGs going into a recruiting vapor-lock that bad? I know recruiting went into the tank when we whiffed on that 3rd straight 5 * white girl right in our back-yard...

I was talking about wins in conference. And who are these three 5 star white girls. Haley Jones is Biracial, DeCosta is African American, Forbes was African American and in 2016 We know who was white. 2017 had three 5 star people who were not really five star recruits and none were white.

wvitbear said:

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I was talking about wins in conference. And who are these three 5 star white girls. Haley Jones is Biracial, DeCosta is African American, Forbes was African American and in 2016 We know who was white. 2017 had three 5 star people who were not really five star recruits and none were white.

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Lorretta Kakala comes to mind as a post we could have used/KA successer, and my bad on Haley Jones. Seemed like we just missed out on a couple other non AA ladies we could have used, I'll post the names when they come to mind.
Their were a couple of posters who complained about LG not closing the deal on some of the top girls who were not AA during the 2016-18 recruiting cycles.

Wasn't KaKala samoan? She is at Pacific now. A mid major.

Ccajon2 said:

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(%chance of winning)
Sure Loss: @UConn (13),@Stan (20),@Ore St. (30),@Ore (13), Ore (25)
Poss. Loss: Stan(35), @Wash (49), UCLA(47), @utes (44), @Ariz St. (31), @AZ (45)
Poss. Win: @ Harv.(75), Kty (65), Wash (80), Wazzu (84), Utah (65), @Wazzu (62), USC (67), @Colo (65), Ore. St. (50)
Sure Win: UC Riv (95), SDS (90), Ark (75), NC Central (99), Boston U (97), Grand Cyn (99), Colo (84), LBSt (80)/Penn St. (90)
Projected OOC 10-1
Projected Con 8-10 (18-11)
NIT?

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IMHO, this is way too optimistic based on our current roster. If the Bears can achieve 10-1 in OOC with this roster, Coach Smith is a miracle worker. If the Bears can reach 8-10 in conference, Coach Smith should be Pac-12 Coach of the year. Last year with all-world once in a decade Center KA and pretty good Guard AT we were 9-9 in the conference. This year without those two, things don't look so good.

My projections: 8-3 OOC and 5-13 in the Pac-12 for an overall record of 13-16 (and, yes, I am wearing my Blue and Gold glasses).

The unfortunate reality is that LG did not do much recruiting in the last three years (was busy with baby, wedding and Southwest Airlines as well as distracted looking for a new job, I guess). Unfortunately, LG has not left much for Coach Smith to work with.

The good news is that Coach Smith has gotten to a great start in recruiting with three 5 star bigs coming and hopefully a quality guard in the works.

Go Coach Smith, Go Bears!

Decent team in a really hard conference.

Possibly close on OOC.

Too optimistic on conference, unless there are a lot of injuries. Don't think they make NIT.

Be more interested in how the younger players develop by the end of the season. Next year will be fun with the great recruiting class, but this is a transition year.

wifeisafurd said:

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Decent team in a really hard conference....

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+1

I would go even further. Easily the toughest conference in the nation this year and perhaps maybe even ever. That is what makes it very difficult to have a winning season.

Go Bears!

After losing to Harvard, so much for going 10-1 OOC and 18-11 overall.

"We just got run over by a moped and some trucks are coming", said Joe Kapp in mid 80's after losing to a lesser opponent (WSU in that case).

I stand by my earlier statement that any Pac-12 coach who loses to a non-scholarship school shouldn't be allowed to collect a Pac-12 coach level salary.

Many years ago, I watched Pat Summit at the end of a game, she did not draw up a play, and told her players to go out and win the game. They lost, and when Pat was interviewed after the gme was over. All she said was, her seniors did not play well enough to win. I expect lots of scoring from Jaelyn Brown...it didn't happen tonight. I don't know if she had the ball enough to put up big numbers. Chen played okay, and C.J. is still getting back after being out for a month before the first exhibition game. Gotta make free throws...My hope is that this team is well coached, can stay positive, and improve with each game. GO BEARS!!

Our two Centers (Chen and West) combined for 1 for 12 shooting against a non-scholarship school. Who should be held accountable?

One note: Harvard's center is a very good player who could have probably played at the Power 5 level, but definitely mid-major starter. The Ivy does get good players who are more focused on their future outside of basketball than their pro potential.

calbear80 said:

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Our two Centers (Chen and West) combined for 1 for 12 shooting against a non-scholarship school. Who should be held accountable?

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Harvard is a scholarship school - they just don't call them "athletic scholarships" - but there are scholarships for athletes.