Preseason Numbers

1,609 Views | 5 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by bearkat
R90
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The Washingtons, Zonas and LaLas start conference play today, so the non-conference season is basically over.

Here are the RPIs and Massey Numbers heading into the conference season:

RPI
4 Stanford (0.6916)
5 Oregon St. (0.6883)
10 UCLA (0.6641)
22 Oregon (0.6294)
48 Colorado (0.5938)
56 Arizona St. (0.5795)
58 Arizona (0.5784)
59 California (0.5766)
88 Washington St. (0.5531)
92 USC (0.5481)
112 Washington (0.5356)
193 Utah (0.4832)

Arizona is 11-0, but has the softest schedule so their RPI is about the same as Cal's at 7-3.
Utah is 7-4 with a very soft schedule as well.

The Pac-12s RPIs will rise relative to other conferences because we'll play more games against teams with better records.

Massey (Using the PWR #s, a better measure than RPI of how good the teams really are)
3 Oregon (78.00)
6 Oregon St. (73.13)
8 Stanford (70.64)
9 UCLA (70.50)
13 Arizona (65.49)
28 Arizona St. (61.95)
37 California (59.81)
51 Colorado (57.54)
64 Washington St. (54.63)
65 USC (54.61)
67 Washington (54.53)
68 Utah (53.98)

If these numbers are accurate, any of these teams could make the tournament.


It's all just entertainment, so find a way to enjoy it.
The refs are there to feed your hatred addiction and keep the games close.
wvitbear
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Correct me if I am wrong but WSU played a very tough schedule. Was it the toughest?
R90
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wvitbear said:

Correct me if I am wrong but WSU played a very tough schedule. Was it the toughest?
Yes, they played a very tough schedule, according to both Massey (26th) and the RPI (41st). That's not good for the conference, but it boosted their own RPI.

Looking at how just one conference game effected RPIs:

UCLA beats USC, in Westwood 83-59
UCLA rises from 0.6641 to 0.6691 (remains 10th after the home win)
USC rises from 0.5481 to 0.5564 (climbs from 92nd to 82nd by losing on the road to an undefeated team with a strong SoS)
Average gain of 0.00665 for two good teams.

Colorado wins at Utah, 80-70
Colorado rises from 0.5938 to 0.6036 (climbs from 48th to 36th)
Utah rises from 0.4832 to 0.4847 (climbs one spot, from 193rd to 192nd by losing at home to an undefeated team with a weak SoS)
Average gain of 0.00565 for one good and one average team

Arizona beats Arizona St. in Tempe, 58-53
Arizona rises from 0.5784 to 0.5958 (climbs from 58th to 44th with a Quadrant 1 win on the road)
Arizona St. falls from 0.5795 to 0.5717 (drops from 56th to 68th by losing at home to an undefeated team with a weak SoS)
Average gain of 0.00485 for two good teams.

Washington wins at Washington St., 65-56
Washington rises from 0.5356 to 0.5471 (climbs from 112th to 98th)
Washington St. falls from 0.5531 to 0.5416 (drops from 88th to 104th)
Average gain of 0.0015 for two of the lowest ranked teams in conference.

Home games count as 0.6 wins or 1.4 losses.
Road games count as 1.4 wins or 0.6 losses.
Since most Pac-12 teams will have winning records overall, home loses hurt more than road wins help. Average conference RPIs do better when the home team wins. In spite of three teams losing at home, average RPIs rose in all the conference games.

It's harder for higher ranked teams to climb.

Oregon St. rose just 0.0012 by beating an 8-3 team.
Cal rose just 0.0018 by beating a 5-5 team.



It's all just entertainment, so find a way to enjoy it.
The refs are there to feed your hatred addiction and keep the games close.
R90
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Meanwhile, the Pac-12 men's teams wrapped up their non-conference schedules yesterday. The NCAA uses the NET rankings for the men, and it rewards individual teams for playing soft schedules, unlike the RPI.

Stanford lost at home to one of the best teams in the country, #2 Kansas, and fell from 11th to 21st.
Oregon won at home against one of the worst teams in the country, #336 Alabama St., and climbed from 14th to 11th.
Cal lost to at home to a better team, #103 Harvard, and fell from 168th to 184th.

Being the weakest of the P6 conferences will help Pac-12 teams relative to the others, and they'll still get many more opportunities for Quadrant 1 wins than mid-majors.

The men will probably get 6 or 7 teams into the NCAA tournament.
The women will probably get 7 or 8 teams in.

The Pac-12 has gamed both systems very well.
It's all just entertainment, so find a way to enjoy it.
The refs are there to feed your hatred addiction and keep the games close.
R90
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Losing at home is a real RPI buster because home losses count as 1.4 losses in the formula.

Our 9-4 record can be broken down as
1-2 on the road = 1.4 wins and 1.2 losses.
8-2 at home = 4.8 wins and 2.8 losses.
That makes us 6.2-4, .6078 for 25% of the formula.

Looking at how the 12 Pac-12 teams did last night:

Washington (9-3) wins at Cal (9-3)
Washington climbs from #96 to #73
Cal falls from #66 to #80

Washington St. (7-6) loses at Stanford (11-1)
Washington St. climbs from #112 to #100
Stanford falls from #4 to #5

Colorado (12-0) loses at Oregon (10-1)
Colorado falls from #33 to #34
Oregon climbs from #21 to #14

Utah (7-5) loses at Oregon St. (12-0)
Utah climbs from #192 to #179
Oregon St. stays at #6

Arizona St. (10-3) loses at UCLA (12-0)
Arizona St. climbs from #67 to #60
UCLA climbs from #10 to #9

Arizona (12-0) wins at USC (8-4)
Arizona climbs from #38 to #35
USC falls from #84 to #91

Playing a tough team on the road will help your RPI, win or lose.
It's hard to climb when you're already highly ranked.
Losing at home hurts.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa-womens-basketball-rpi
It's all just entertainment, so find a way to enjoy it.
The refs are there to feed your hatred addiction and keep the games close.
HoopDreams
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Well that home loss to UW hurts

No way to sugar coat it
bearkat
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One sprinkle: Notre Dame's RPI is worse.
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