NCAA PREVIEW: CAN TEXAS KEEP UP WITH CAL?

We'll start by looking at a nationals simulation based off of each team's top times swum so far this year. The Swimulator will guess at which events each swimmer will choose to swim by their rankings in each. I don't allow back-to-back swims i.e. no Dressel in the 50 and 200 IM, as fun as that would be to see). Relays are chosen based off of the team's top result, so its possible that the final lineups will change based off of the four-relays-per-swimmer limitation.
The results show Cal as the clear leader as of 1/10:
California: 471
Texas: 353

How are our divers coming along? Have we narrowed the diving points gap?

UrsusArctosCalifornicus said:

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CAL MEN OVERTAKE INDIANA FOR CSCAA'S #1 DUAL MEET RANK FOR DEC 6


RANK | PREVIOUS | TEAM | POINTS
#1 | 2 | California | 300
#2 | 9 | Texas | 285
#3 | 6 | NC State | 267
#4 | 1 | Indiana | 254
#5 | 7 | Stanford | 252
#6 | 3 | Florida | 244
#7 | 8 | Southern California | 226
#8 | 4 | Michigan | 216
#9 | 6 | Texas A&M | 209
10 | 11 | Arizona State | 191

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Cal Men, Texas A&M Women Stay Atop CSCAA Division I Poll

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ALL IN THE FAMILY


The Arvidssons and Biondis are joined as members of a tight-knit Cal men's swimming community.


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BEARS CRUISE TO VICTORY OVER ARIZONA STATE



RESULTS => http://calbears.com/documents/2018/1/19/Swim_Meet_ASU_Cal_1_19_18.pdf


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https://instagr.am/p/BeJa_qBATaX

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https://instagr.am/p/BeLe2fkAUdC

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BEARS SWIM TO VICTORY ON SENIOR DAY




RESULTS => http://calbears.com/documents/2018/1/20//MSWIM_vs_Arizona_PDF_Results.pdf


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https://instagr.am/p/BeMKKE0gkLm
https://instagr.am/p/BeMULn3gm9h

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JENSEN POSTS 19.0 SPLIT ON 200 FREE RELAY AS CAL DOWNS ARIZONA




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TOP 8 NCAA MEN'S TIMES FROM LAST WEEK'S DUAL MEETS

There were a lot of big swims on the men's side last week during NCAA D1 dual meets.
For starters, both NC State's Ryan Held and Cal's Michael Jensen broke 43 in the 100 free wearing briefs. Jensen went 43.0 and 42.9 against Arizona last weekend. Jensen's 19.47 in the 50 free was also the fastest time of the weekend.

On the topic of freestyle, two Florida Gators dropped big times in the 200 free over the weekend against Auburn. Jan Switkowski and Khader Baqlah went 1-2 in the 200 free, going 1:33.95 and 1:34.60, respectively. Against Rider and Bryant, Harvard's Dean Farris put up the weekend's third-quickest time, a 1:35.11.

The Pac-12 rolled this weekend, as Grant Shoults dropped the only sub-4:20 swim of the weekend in the 500 free. Shoults posted a 4:19.61 as the Cardinal overpowered ASU on Saturday.

The Cal men looked very good last week. In addition to Jensen's swims, Andrew Seliskar went the fastest times in both IMs, Matthew Josa went the #1 time in the 100 fly, and Mike Thomas ruled the 200 fly.

50 FREESTYLE SCY MALE
1) Michael Jensen (SO) - 19.47 // California
3T) Justin Lynch (SR) - 19.68 // California

100 FREESTYLE SCY MALE
2) Michael Jensen (SO) - 42.99 // California
6) Justin Lynch (SR) - 43.53 // California

200 FREESTYLE SCY MALE
4) Andrew Seliskar (JR) - 1:35.73 // California
6) Michael Jensen (SO) - 1:36.30 // California
7) Mike Thomas (JR) - 1:36.39 // California

1000 FREESTYLE SCY MALE
9) Nick Norman (JR) - 9:00.04 // California

100 BACKSTROKE SCY MALE
8) Zheng Quah (SO) - 47.60 // California

200 BACKSTROKE SCY MALE
5) Zheng Quah (SO) - 1:44.58 // California
7) Mike Thomas (JR) - 1:45.05 // California
8) Bryce Mefford (FR) - 1:45.22 // California

100 BREASTSTROKE SCY MALE
6) Carson Sand (JR) - 54.09 // California

200 BREASTSTROKE SCY MALE
8) Carson Sand (JR) - 1:58.71 // California

100 BUTTERFLY SCY MALE
1) Matthew Josa (SR) - 46.53 // California
3) Justin Lynch (SR) - 46.57 // California
5) Michael Jensen (SO) - 46.85 // California

200 BUTTERFLY SCY MALE
1) Mike Thomas (JR) - 1:44.36 // California
4) Zheng Quah (SO) - 1:44.75 // California

200 INDIVIDUAL MEDLEY SCY MALE
1) Andrew Seliskar (JR) - 1:46.22 // California

400 INDIVIDUAL MEDLEY SCY MALE
1) Andrew Seliskar (JR) - 3:49.78 // California
5) Sean Grieshop (FR) - 3:51.98 // California

The Freshman Impact for Texas and Cal at Men's NCAA Swimming Champs

Freshmen rarely decide a championship, but it's hardly uncommon to see first-years emerge and steal some national titles. Remember, Schooling was not yet a superstar when he won his first two NCAA titles in 2015, and neither was Haas one year later.

As for the Golden Bears, none of their freshmen have so far recorded times that would have placed in the top-eight at NCAAs last year, but Hoffer could certainly reach that level if he gets back to his best times from high school. His season-bests this year are 19.13 in the 50 free and 42.28 in the 100 free, but his lifetime bests are 18.71 and 41.23, respectively.

Of course, it's tough to imagine anyone beating Caeleb Dressel in either sprint, but the only other current NCAA swimmer with a best time quicker than Hoffer in either event is Ryan Held. So, yes, definite big-point potential here.

Carr has been as quick as 1:40.65 in the 200 back this season, while Grieshop swam a 3:43.30 in the 400 IM. Both those times would have qualified for consolation finals in 2017. Carr's 100 back (45.96) and Bryce Mefford's 200 back (1:40.84) would have just missed scoring.

From all that information, you would think that Texas and Cal should end up with similar freshmen scoring outputsindividually. But in the relays, the big advantage goes to the Golden Bears.

First off, Hoffer. Even if he's slightly off his best times come March, that's still a huge piece for Cal's 200 and 400-yard relaysall currently ranked No. 1 in the country. Alone, Hoffer is excellent, but he could be deadly when teamed with the likes of Michael Jensen, Justin Lynch and Pawel Sendyk.

Then there's backstroke, where Cal has a Murphy-sized hole to fill. Carr is not Murphy, and expecting him to reach that level is simply unreasonable, but he's an upgrade over anyone else the Bears had on the roster last season.

So when it comes to freshmen, advantage Cal. Most of the Bears' first-years (aside from Hoffer) have no shot at finishing in the top-three in an individual event, but this year's Cal team is not a superstar-driven unit.

"I wouldn't necessarily say they have a 'best swimmer,'" Murphy said. "It's a lot easier to rally the troops when you have a bunch of guys who are like, 'Alright, Ryan's not here, so let's all do this. Let's all step up our game."

The former Golden Bear then added, "I'm excited to see how they progress." Well, if Cal's freshmen keep on their current course, that could put them in the hunt for a national title.

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BEARS EARN TEAM ACADEMIC AWARD



Zach Stevens helped lead Cal's effort in the classroom with a 4.0 fall GPA


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50 free:
4) Ryan Hoffer - 19.13
5) Pawel Sendyk - 19.17

100 free:
2) Justin Lynch - 42.01

100 breast:
2) Connor Hoppe - 52.16

200 breast:
1) Andrew Seliskar - 1:53.05

100 fly:
2) Matthew Josa - 45.27
4) Justin Lynch - 45.51

200 fly:
3) Zheng Quah - 1:40.68

200 IM:
4) Andrew Seliskar - 1:42.46

Stanford Women, Cal Men Lead CSCAA Poll; Texas Men Tumble

Division I Men

Rank | Previous | Team | Points
1 | 1 | California | 274
2 | 3 | Indiana | 264
3 | 4 | Florida | 249
4 | 5 | Stanford | 238
5 | 6 | NC State | 218
6 | 7 | Michigan | 213
7 | 10 | Arizona State | 199
8 | 2 | Texas | 198
9 | 11 | Georgia | 189
10 | 8 | Southern California | 174

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DUAL MEET SEASON CONTINUES AT USC





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BEARS STAY PERFECT IN DUAL MEETS, BEAT USC



RESULTS => https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/calberk.sidearmsports.com/documents/2018/2/2/2_2_18_usc_v_cal_men_pdf_results.pdf


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HOFFER SWEEPS SPRINTS AS CAL MEN TAKE DOWN USC ON THE ROAD




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Cal Men Use Depth to Beat USC


Matthew Josa. Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick


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Cal swimmers are very consistent, but Michael Jensen's performance often varies quite a bit within the same meet. It's fairly different from the rest of the team that it's odd.

2017-2018 MEN'S NCAA POWER RANKINGS: FEBRUARY EDITION

#20: DENVER PIONEERS (PREVIOUS RANK: N/A)

#19: MISSOURI TIGERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #17)

#18: GRAND CANYON ANTELOPES (PREVIOUS RANK: #20)

#17: PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #15)

#16: LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (PREVIOUS RANK: #16)

#15: SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (PREVIOUS RANK: #18)

#14: AUBURN TIGERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #13)

#13: TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #14)

#12: GEORGIA BULLDOGS (PREVIOUS RANK: #11)

#11: TEXAS A&M AGGIES (PREVIOUS RANK: #12)

#10: ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (PREVIOUS RANK: #10)
A win over Texas shows how far this team has come the past few years. It also solidifies the sense that they can crack the top ten, but it's hard to see them moving up much more. RG

#9: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (PREVIOUS RANK: #9)
Don't let a bad loss to Ohio State fool you. Alabama was victimized in distance free and diving, but this roster is still built for big NCAA points. -JA

#8: USC TROJANS (PREVIOUS RANK: #7)
Carsten Vissering looked great in his return, which instantly returns USC's medley relays to contender status. -JA

#7: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (PREVIOUS RANK: #8)
The Wolverines have continued to impress me the entire season. They are 1st or 2nd in all the relays in the Big Ten, and have, in my opinion, the 2nd best all-around freestyle squad in the NCAA (behind Stanford) as well as one of the deepest IM squads. -SP

#6: INDIANA HOOSIERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #6)
Just like with #1/2 and #3/4, I keep going back and forth Stanford and Indiana. Right now, Stanford gets the edge only because some of the Hoosiers' key swimmers have consistently performed better at Big Tens than NCAAs the past few years. -RG
Gabriel Fantoni is an excellent addition to the Hoosiers, creating more potential combinations for already good medley relays. -SP

#5: STANFORD CARDINAL (PREVIOUS RANK: #5)
Stanford's free group is phenomenal, and more importantly, they have the ability to score in every single swimming event, including the relays. That will make them very dangerous at the NCAAs. -SP

#4: FLORIDA GATORS (PREVIOUS RANK: #4)
Most of the relay ranks don't yet include Caeleb Dressel, but the Gators currently have a lot of ground to make up on NC State. -JA

#3: NC STATE WOLFPACK (PREVIOUS RANK: #3)
Do we even know who will swim what relay for NC State? The Pack runs deep with versatile talents like Ryan Held, Jacob Molacek, Justin Ress and Andreas Vazaios, giving the coaching staff myriad relay options at ACCs. -JA

#2: TEXAS LONGHORNS (PREVIOUS RANK: #1)
Too many stars to not show up at NCAAs. Plus a big diving advantage. -JA
If you trust the Texas taper, there's no reason to be unduly worried about the Longhorns' loss to ASU. There's more reason to be worried about John Shebat not swimming the past two weekends, even if he's now supposed to be back for the postseason. RG

#1: CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (PREVIOUS RANK: #2)
Every time I've crunched the numbers, Cal comes out ahead by 10-20 points. A single DQ or sub-par morning swim could make the difference at NCs. RG
I think it's safe to say it will be a bloodbath between Cal and Texas at the NCAAs, and while Texas probably has more star power, I think Cal has more momentum going into their conference meet. That can make a big difference going into taper. -SP
Cal might have the best relays in the nation as a whole. Ryan Hoffer is starting to look like a true budding star again. -JA

(Also receiving votes: Minnesota, Notre Dame, Miami)

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RYAN HOFFER NAMED PAC-12 SWIMMER OF THE WEEK


Freshman Sprinter Helps Cal Earn Dual Meet Win At USC


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DUAL SEASON CONCLUDES AT STANFORD



BERKELEY The Cal men's swimming and diving team wraps up the 2017-18 regular season with a short trip to the South Bay as the Bears head to Stanford for the final dual meet of the year on Saturday at noon.

Saturday's meet, which will be streamed live on the Stanford website and Pac-12.com, gives Cal one more chance to test itself against a quality conference opponent before turning its sights to the Pac-12 Championships. The Bears get back in the pool with a perfect 5-0 record in dual meets while Stanford also boasts a 5-0 record of its own.

Live Stream => http://pac-12.com/live/stanford-university

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BEARS BATTLE IN CLOSE DUAL MEET AT STANFORD


Cal Wins Both Relays, Seven Individual Races But Cardinal Prevails


STANFORD, Calif. A highly competitive day of racing featured a battle right to the final event but the Cal men's swimming and diving team couldn't quite pull out the overall victory against host Stanford as the Bears dropped a 151-149 decision to the Cardinal.


RESULTS => https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/calberk.sidearmsports.com/documents/2018/2/17/cal_at_stanford_men_results_final.pdf


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UPDATE =>

SHOULTS SETS POOL RECORD AS STANFORD MEN TOP CAL BY 2 POINTS


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Anyone know why Josa didn't swim the fly events?

STANFORD MEN TAKE TOP SPOT IN FINAL CSCAA POLL

Stanford finished the year a perfect 6-0 in dual meets, nailing down decisive wins over Arizona, ASU and Pacific in January before emerging by a combined five points in February over USC (151.5-148.5) and California (151-149). Their win over the Golden Bears last weekend is what put them over the top and into the #1 spot as Cal had held the position over the past three votes. Notably, Stanford had impressive showings from Grant Shoultsand Abrahm DeVine in the victory.

Cal still took 2nd spot in the final poll, defeating Arizona, ASU and USC in the new year before their loss to Stanford.

RANK | PREVIOUS | TEAM | POINTS
1 | 4 | Stanford | 289
2 | 1 | California | 278
3 | 2 | Indiana | 269
4 | 3 | Florida | 267
5 | 5 | NC State | 253
6 | 8 | Texas | 243
7 | 6 | Michigan | 236
8 | 7 | Arizona State | 216
9 | 10 | Southern California | 196
10 | 9 | Georgia | 187
11 | 11 | Texas A&M | 184
12 | 12 | Tennessee | 177
13 | 13 | Missouri | 141
14 | 16 | Auburn | 140
15 | 14 | Louisville | 133
16 | 15 | Ohio State | 119
17 | 16 | Alabama | 115
18 | 18 | Arizona | 104
19 | 19 | Notre Dame | 75
20 | 21 | Florida State | 55
21 | 20 | Virginia Tech | 39
21 | 22 | Minnesota | 39
23 | 23 | Virginia | 38
24 | 25 | Harvard | 36
25 | NR | Georgia Tech | 23

Former Cal star Matt Biondi, winner of 11 Olympic medals and 14 NCAA titles, was named the Pac-12 Swimmer of the Century in 2016.

MATT BIONDI TO JOIN PAC-12 HALL OF HONOR

http://calbears.com/news/2018/2/26/mens-swimming-diving-matt-biondi-to-join-pac-12-hall-of-honor.aspx

http://pac-12.com/article/2018/02/26/pac-12-unveils-2018-hall-honor-inductees

Based on today ranking on usaswimming, 17 bears should be invited.

Carr, Daniel
Coan, Kyle
Grieshop, Sean
Hoffer, Ryan
Hoppe, Connor
Jensen, Michael
Josa, Matthew
Julian, Trenton
Lynch, Justin
Mefford, Bryce
Norman, Nick
Quah, Zheng
Sand, Carson
Seliskar, Andrew
Sendyk, Pawel
Thomas, Mike
Whittle, Matt

=======================================================
-- 50 FR --
7 19.00 Lynch, Justin SR California A 03/01/2018
11 19.09 Sendyk, Pawel SO California B 03/01/2018
15 19.13 Hoffer, Ryan FR California B 12/01/2017
17 19.19 Jensen, Michael SO California B 03/01/2018

-- 100 FR --
14 42.01 Lynch, Justin SR California A 12/03/2017
17 42.28 Hoffer, Ryan FR California B 12/03/2017
23 42.47 Jensen, Michael SO California B 12/03/2017

-- 200 FR --
4 1:32.12 Seliskar, Andrew JR California A 02/28/2018
25 1:33.85 Coan, Kyle SR California B 02/28/2018

-- 500 FR --
12 4:14.44 Grieshop, Sean FR California B 03/01/2018

-- 1650 FR --
6 14:39.77 Norman, Nick JR California A 03/03/2018
10 14:43.35 Grieshop, Sean FR California B 03/03/2018

-- 100 BK --
22 45.93 Carr, Daniel FR California B 03/02/2018

-- 200 BK --
18 1:40.65 Carr, Daniel FR California B 12/03/2017
21 1:40.84 Mefford, Bryce FR California B 12/03/2017
33 1:41.41 Young, Ethan SO California B 03/03/2018

-- 100 BR --
7 51.91 Hoppe, Connor SR California B 03/02/2018
17 52.33 Sand, Carson JR California B 02/28/2018
34 52.87 Whittle, Matt SR California B 03/02/2018

-- 200 BR --
2 1:51.30 Seliskar, Andrew JR California A 03/03/2018
21 1:54.03 Whittle, Matt SR California B 02/28/2018
31 1:54.57 Silverthorn, Nick SR California B 02/28/2018

-- 100 FL --
5 45.14 Lynch, Justin SR California A 03/02/2018
7 45.27 Josa, Matthew SR California A 12/02/2017
16 45.60 Quah, Zheng SO California B 03/02/2018

-- 200 FL --
2 1:40.24 Quah, Zheng SO California A 03/03/2018
10 1:41.22 Thomas, Mike JR California A 12/03/2017
14 1:41.41 Josa, Matthew SR California A 03/03/2018
20 1:41.69 Julian, Trenton FR California B 03/03/2018
36 1:43.06 Xie, Jack SO California B 03/03/2018

-- 200 IM --
7 1:41.85 Seliskar, Andrew JR California A 03/01/2018
9 1:42.08 Josa, Matthew SR California B 03/01/2018
14 1:42.83 Thomas, Mike JR California B 12/01/2017
32 1:44.04 Julian, Trenton FR California B 03/01/2018

-- 400 IM --
3 3:38.65 Seliskar, Andrew JR California A 03/02/2018
16 3:42.06 Grieshop, Sean FR California B 03/02/2018
19 3:42.71 Thomas, Mike JR California B 12/02/2017

solobear said:

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Based on today ranking on usaswimming, 17 bears should be invited.

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Cheers for compiling the stats!

Smashing to see Bryce, Matt & Trenton punch their tickets last night!

Let's see how the final rankings shake out once the official invites are issued, but actually 17 isn't altogether a bad position to be in - allows room for 2 divers without shutting anyone out who would have otherwise qualified on the swimming side.

Texas does not have a good breast-stroke swimmer, so their medley-relays hurt them.
It looks like Cal bears will have to perfect every little detail in training during the next few weeks to win this race.

The following points are computed using today ranking
Cal
- Individual events = 172
- Relay events = 160
- Total = 332

Texas
- Individual events = 180
- Relay events = 124
- Total = 304

Swimmers of the Week - March 5th



The lone Division I Swimmer of the Week is Justin Lynch of Cal. Justin won the 50 free and 100 fly, and earned second in the 100 free at the Pac 12 Championships. He now ranks 6th in the 50 free and 5th in the 100 fly in Division I.

solobear said:

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Based on today ranking on usaswimming, 17 bears should be invited.

Carr, Daniel
Coan, Kyle
Grieshop, Sean
Hoffer, Ryan
Hoppe, Connor
Jensen, Michael
Josa, Matthew
Julian, Trenton
Lynch, Justin
Mefford, Bryce
Norman, Nick
Quah, Zheng
Sand, Carson
Seliskar, Andrew
Sendyk, Pawel
Thomas, Mike
Whittle, Matt

=

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Results of the 3M dive has Connor Callahan coming in 7th plc. Does this get him into the NCAA's?



Unofficial Statistics
Men 3m Championship (6 Dives) (Final)
This event is now closed.
Place
Score
Diver Name
Event
Avg
Score
Avg
Round
Score
1
791.60
Dashiell Enos (USC)
7.08
66.93
2
767.75
Tarek Abdelghany (STAN)
6.47
61.42
3
767.65
Henry Fusaro (USC)
7.39
68.25
4
719.80
Youssef Selim (ASU)
6.69
61.93
5
682.95
Theodore Miclau (STAN)
6.44
57.64
6
670.10
Johan Sandell (HAWA)
6.00
55.30
7
666.05
Connor Callahan (CAL)
6.19
58.27
8
662.75
Dylan Marin (USC)
5.97
55.23
9
654.05
Scotia Mullin (WYO)
5.97
53.00
10
651.75
Nathan Makarewicz (UTAH)
5.69
53.91
11
636.65
Matt Denkers (BYU)
5.81
54.99
12
626.50
Nathan Gonzales (BYU)
5.92
54.80
13
609.75
Jenner Pennock (UTAH)
5.86
52.98
14
608.40
Grant Newcombe (HAWA)
5.08
48.24
15
581.05
Casey Ponton (ARIZ)
5.44
46.66
16
580.25
Morgan Cooper (BYU)
5.14
47.65
17
553.90
Pietro Toscani (GCU)
4.78
43.98
18
539.80
Jesse Cawley (UNLV)
4.81
40.67
Official scores for this event should be posted later in the day.
This page will refresh automatically.
Please do not hit the Refresh button.

Official Meet Results


Unofficial Results

Men 3m Championship (6 Dives)
(Final)
This event has ended.
Men 3m Championship (6 Dives)
(Prelim / Quarterfinal)
This event has ended.
Women 1m Championship (6 Dives)
(Final)
This event has ended.
Women 1m Championship (6 Dives)
(Prelim / Quarterfinal)
This event has ended.

Brought to you by:

[url=http://www.divemeets.com/][/url]

OBear073akaSMFan said:

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Results of the 3M dive has Connor Callahan coming in 7th plc. Does this get him into the NCAA's?

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From my (very) limited knowledge of the NCAA Diving qualifying criteria (or anything related to diving, that is lol), it would appear that Connor has made the cut for this event, as the top 7 in the 3m springboard for Zone E do get invited!!! Congrats!!!

Furthermore, if any of our Bears finishes in the Top 7 of the Platform, or Top 5 of the 1m, then they would be in for that event, and also eligible to participate in any other event that they placed in the top 12 of their zone...

Makes sense?? haha


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UPDATE =>

STANFORD WOMEN, CAL MEN QUALIFY ONE DIVER EACH ON DAY 1 OF ZONE ES

Pre selection entries are out:

https://cdn.swimswam.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/18-3-5_pre-selection-entries.pdf

Doesn't tell us much besides who is swimming what, but there're a couple surprises (in my eyes).
We've got Mefford and Julian sticking with their PAC12 schedules, i.e. 200 free over 100 back/fly. I'm a little surprised given how Mefford's back has looked like easily his strongest stroke this season; I thought he might even attempt the 200 free/100 back double. These leaves Carr as our lone 100 backstroker. Julian I understand since he sits behind a lot of guys in the fly, but his 200 fly looked awfully good. Let's hope this means potential big drops for both of them, though I suspect Julian was fully tapered for PAC12s.

We also have Jensen reverting back to 200 free over the fly, which was more or less expected.

Other big takeaway is Quah trying his hand at 200IM. It makes sense as his backstroke has never seemed to click at Cal (an all too common problem lately), and he's too good not to least score in three events, but it does give us a bit of a logjam with seven entries in the 2IM.

Also, Dressel swimming 100 fly over 100 breast is probably bad for us, as the finals spot he automatically takes was more likely to have gone to a Bear otherwise.

Silverthorn on the list at 30th in the 200 Breast.

BRBear said:

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Other big takeaway is Quah trying his hand at 200IM. It makes sense as his backstroke has never seemed to click at Cal (an all too common problem lately), and he's too good not to least score in three events, but it does give us a bit of a logjam with seven entries in the 2IM.

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CAL'S ZHENG QUAH CHOOSES 200 IM OVER 100 BACK FOR 2018 NCAAS



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SELISKAR TAKES IMS, 200 BREAST FOR NCAAS, NO 200 FREE, 200 FLY



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SCORING THE NCAA MEN'S D1 PRE-SELECTION PSYCH SHEET

TEAM SCORES

TEAM | PSYCH POINTS | INDIVIDUAL | RELAY
1 | NC State | 385 | 213 | 172
2 | Indiana | 350.5 | 198.5 | 152
3 | California | 340.5 | 180.5 | 160
4 | Texas | 322 | 186 | 136
5 | Florida | 302 | 148 | 154
6 | Michigan | 218.5 | 148.5 | 70
7 | Southern Cali | 166 | 82 | 84
8 | Louisville | 152 | 72 | 80
9 | Auburn | 144 | 102 | 42
10 | Stanford | 129.5 | 85.5 | 44


(Note: Don't worry, Bears will place higher @ NCAAs, after a nice taper...unfortunately for us, Horns should also handily outperform their psych sheet points)

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swimswam also posted the cut-line. As expected, Silverthorn won't make it.

https://swimswam.com/projecting-the-cut-line-for-the-2018-mens-ncaa-championships

Dressel chose not to swim 200 IM and 100 BR, which is good for the bears in this competition with Texas where every point counts.

solobear said:

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Dressel chose not to swim 200 IM and 100 BR, which is good for the bears in this competition with Texas where every point counts.

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In my view this is NOT good for the bears. They have far more potential scorers in the fly than the breast, and more than Texas who likely just has Schooling (will final no matter what) and maybe Shebat, meaning that Dressel is more likely to push one of our guys out than Texas's. In the breaststroke there's just Hoppe, who if he approaches his best should easily A final. We have more entrants in 2IM than 50 free, but realistically the same number of potential scorers in each event so you can't really predict Dressel's impact there. You could make the argument that this gives Seliskar and Hoppe a shot at the titles(and takes away Schooling's), but both are far from a sure thing.

200 IM - No Dressel.
- Bears gain a whole bunch of points, especially if Seli wins.
- Texas gains exactly 1 point.

100 BR - No Dressel.
- Bears gain at least one point. Even more points if Sand and Whittle make it to the finals.
- Texas gains nothing.

100 FL - Advantage neither school.
- Schooling would loose 3 points.
- All bears combined would lose 3 points.

50 Free - Advantage neither school.
- Both schools have similar number of scorers and would loose similar amount of points.

solobear said:

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200 IM - No Dressel.
- Bears gains a whole bunch of points, especially if Seli won.
- Texas gains exactly 1 point.

100 BR - No Dressel.
- Bears gains at least one point. Even more points if Sand and Whittle make it to the finals.
- Texas gains nothing.

100 FL - Advantage neither school.
- Schooling would loose 3 points.
- All bears combined would lose 3 points.

50 Free - Advantage neither school.
- Both schools have similar number of scorers and would loose similar amount of points.

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You also have to consider the cost of falling from A final (minimum 11 points) vs B final (maximum 9 with potential to fall to 1).

This message from swimswam is a cool summary of this NC meet.

=== BRADEN KEITH ===
As it turns out, most years, it's not that hard to pick the winner. I haven't looked at every year, but I think the only one we missed was Georgia in 2016 we picked Stanford, who would have won without that relay DQ to open the meet.

But, like you said, this year is different. Cal vs. Texas is almost a dead heat. You're dead-on when you say it's going to come down to taper. I think there's become an almost urban legend around both teams, because they've had some phenomenal swims, that they hit their tapers or training or championship prep or however you want to describe it perfectly every year. But, when you look at results, they don't. Texas has had enough talent the last few years where it didn't matter wasn't even close, even with Schooling not having a great meet.

But, this is the dream. This is the one we've been waiting for since that Florida nailbiter. One where every swim matters, one where just getting a guy in an A final and not worrying about where he places isn't good enough. For the fans, this one is going to be absolutely brilliant. We have to make public predictions every year, because that's what we do, but I can tell you for sure this year that it's a coin-toss at best. wethorn laid it out above you could use different metrics and find ones that favor each team. But, two great coaches, great programs, and a whole lot of great swimmersand some of it still falls out of their control and will just come down to the week-of who has more hits and who has more misses (illness, other teams' swimmers playing spoiler).

I. Can't. Wait.