2017-2018 MEN'S NCAA POWER RANKINGS: FINAL EDITION
As it's been most of the season, the top spot in our Power Rankings is coming down to a brutally close fight
between Cal and Texas.
We ultimately rolled with Texas, in part because of the return of
John Shebat and in part because of a big diving boost coming out of Zones.
#20: MISSOURI TIGERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #19)
#19: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (PREVIOUS RANK: N/A)
#18: ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (PREVIOUS RANK: #10)
#17: PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #17)
#16: MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (PREVIOUS RANK: N/A)
#15: SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (PREVIOUS RANK: #15)#14: TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #13)
#13: TEXAS A&M AGGIES (PREVIOUS RANK: #11)
#12: GEORGIA BULLDOGS (PREVIOUS RANK: #12)
#11 LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (PREVIOUS RANK: #16)#10: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (PREVIOUS RANK: #9)This is one of the harder teams to peg; they only have six individual qualifiers, and they finished 8th at SECs, but they've got some very strong free relays. -RG
May be a bit of a leap to keep them in the top 10, but the relay points should roll in for the Crimson Tide. If the individual points are there, they shouldn't have a problem being a top 10 team. -SP
#9: AUBURN TIGERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #14)Might as well call him Huge Gonzalez, because Hugo came up huge at SECs. -JA
Two words:
Hugo Gonzalez. He had huge performances at the SECs, and is in the hunt for the title in all 3 of his individual events. Zach Apple will also provide a lot of points, and they could get some points out of a couple other swimmers too. If the Auburn relays can come down some, they will crack the top 10 for sure. -SP
#8: STANFORD CARDINAL (PREVIOUS RANK: #5)Stanford seemed to underperform at the Pac-12s, but I'm not sure how much stock should be put in that. They have a great freestyle squad, and the 2nd biggest swimming roster, but they'll need to swim faster than they did at Pac-12s to score significant points. -SP
It looked like no one was taking Pac 12s all that seriously, making it difficult to judge where some of these teams are at, including Stanford. While their distance group should deliver, they'll need another lights out performance by
Sam Perry to carry the shorter relays. -RG
They've got the second-biggest swimming roster of any team at NCAAs, but a lot of those swimmers are seeded outside of scoring range. -JA
#7: USC TROJANS (PREVIOUS RANK: #8)Great medley relays, diving looks good too. They only have 6 swimmers, but they should all score, leaving the Trojans in a pretty good place overall. -SP
Not a ton of depth, but those medley relays could be absolutely outstanding. Divers came up big at Zones, too. -JA
#6: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (PREVIOUS RANK: #7)This seems a bit low given their current projections, but they've underperformed, relative to their projections, each of the past two NCAAs. -RG
They're a young team and they've continued to exceed my expectations all season. Their free relays look really good, and they should score big points in all the free events and IMs. -SP
#5: INDIANA HOOSIERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #6)With the rise of two good backstrokers, IU is suddenly one of the most well-rounded teams in the nation, with potential scorers in almost every event. Diving is going to come up huge, and it's not out of the question this team could finish as high as 3rd. -JA
It's appeared that the Hoosiers have chosen to focus on Big 10s the past few years, and have slipped a few spots from their projected NCAA finish. They could move up a spot or two if they've gone "all in" for NCAAs this year. -RG
5th honestly seems conservative for the Hoosiers, but with their recent track record at the NCAAs, I'm fine leaving them here knowing they could explode into the top 3. Their 400 medley is really fast, and I expect their 200 medley relay to be faster than 1:23 at the NCAAs. They should also be in the A final in all 3 free relays, and diving is pretty much a given for big points, so if the individual performances are there, Indiana will be in great shape. -SP
#4: FLORIDA GATORS (PREVIOUS RANK: #4)Caeleb Dressel is reaching a level where he could carry a relay win all by himself. Do the Gators use him on breaststroke on the medleys? -JA
Sophomore
Khader Baqlah had a SEC meet that got overshadowed by the reocrd-breaking exploits of a certain swimmer. Add in fellow sophomore
Maxime Rooney and veterans
Mark Szaranek and
Jan Switkowski, and you've got an incrediby solid core. The performance of the second-tier swimmers will probably determine whether or not that Gators can bite down on 3rd place. -RG
If
Caeleb Dressel could swim more than 3 individual events, Florida would easily crack the top 3. At this point, we can count on Dressel for 60 individual points just like last last year. That's significant, and I think we'll see their relays shed a decent amount of time, so if they can get into a bunch of individual finals they could definitely crack the top 3. -SP
#3: NC STATE WOLFPACK (PREVIOUS RANK: #3)NC State always looks lights-out at ACCs, so it's no surprise they're leading the psych sheet scores at this stage. -JA
Fear the beard. Several of NC State top swimmers were still hirsute at ACCs, but they still demolished the American Record in the 400 free relay on the meet's final day. They Wolfpack may be the deepest team in the field after Cal. -RG
NC State looks really good right now.
Ryan Held, Justin Ress, Andreas Vazaios and
Coleman Stewartwill be huge for The Wolfpack both individually and in relays.
Anton Oerskov Ipsen, Jacob Molacek,and
Stuart Hennessey will also be significant point contributors. They're title contenders in all the relays too, so if the rest of their roster shows up, their chances are certainly slimmer than Texas or Cal, but the team title is not completely out of the question. -SP
#2: CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (PREVIOUS RANK: #1)I don't find the argument that Texas qualified one more diver than Cal to be very convincing as to why they're the favorite, especially considering Cal qualified 2 more swimmers than Texas, and is the only school to reach the roster cap. I'm confident that Cal will outscore Texas in the 100/200 breast, 200/400 IM, 100/200 fly, 1650, and relays as a whole. I consider the 50 and 100 free to be toss-ups where it's too close for me to be confident which team will come out on top in them. That being said, I don't see how I can call Texas the favorite, even though I think the meet will be a close one. -SP
Without Ryan Murphy, this team doesn't have any guaranteed wins, but it does have is a ton of depth. With potential scorers in every event, Cal probably has a higher "floor" than any other team. -RG
Top-to-bottom, Cal looks really, really good. If
Ryan Hoffer explodes, they'll be hard to beat in the relays. The freshman class will decide the fate of the Bears this year. -JA
#1: TEXAS LONGHORNS (PREVIOUS RANK: #2)I had finally caved and listed Cal #1. Then Texas qualified three good divers for NCAAs. If
John Shebatswims like he did last year, the meet isn't close. If not, this thing might actually come down to the wire. -JA
Texas has been laying low for much of the season, but I think
Tate Jackson's swims at Big 12 shows what this team can do. It's still going to be close, but diving probably puts Texas on top. -RG
I have never counted Texas out this season, even if I have consistently had Cal as #1, it's always been close in my mind. This round, I did put Cal at #1 with the most confidence I have all season, but the Texas swimmers have a history of swimming lights out when it really matters, and have traditionally been dangerous at the NCAAs. I may be wrong for putting Texas 2nd on this ranking, but I have to go with what my previewing of the meet tells me, and that's that Cal has the advantage. -SP
also receiving votes: Florida State, Arizona