CA surplus has become a growing deficit

534 Views | 5 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by DiabloWags
wifeisafurd
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California budget: Newsom deals with deficit - CalMattershttps://calmatters.org california-budget 2023/01 c...

Expect tax proposals, UC cuts, and a whole lot more that happened lthe ast time we went through this. Hang on tight.
dimitrig
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wifeisafurd said:

California budget: Newsom deals with deficit - CalMattershttps://calmatters.org california-budget 2023/01 c...

Expect tax proposals, UC cuts, and a whole lot more that happened lthe ast time we went through this. Hang on tight.


Maybe giving residents checks wasn't a great idea.

wifeisafurd
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The article seems to suggest costs have been actually cut 3 plus % which is unusual for any state. The problem is revenues are down per the article. Recessionary winds in California? People moving their money or business out? Not sure.
Unit2Sucks
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wifeisafurd said:

The article seems to suggest costs have been actually cut 3 plus % which is unusual for any state. The problem is revenues are down per the article. Recessionary winds in California? People moving their money or business out? Not sure.
Doesn't the article specifically cite reduction in capital gains, which is a major source of revenue for the state.

I feel like the last time you posted an article about a projected budget deficit, we ended up with a big surplus so I'm going to refrain from believing the sky is falling just yet. At the time (May 2020) there was a projected $54B deficit but in the end we had a $75B surplus. For anyone interested in the discussion around the projected 2020 deficit - it's quite hilarious.

Our heavy reliance on cap gains to support the state is always going to be subject to economic cycles which is why I was against the tax refunds this year (ironically, probably something that wouldn't have happened had the dumb recall not been ginned up by GOPers in the state).


wifeisafurd
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Unit2Sucks said:

wifeisafurd said:

The article seems to suggest costs have been actually cut 3 plus % which is unusual for any state. The problem is revenues are down per the article. Recessionary winds in California? People moving their money or business out? Not sure.
Doesn't the article specifically cite reduction in capital gains, which is a major source of revenue for the state.

I feel like the last time you posted an article about a projected budget deficit, we ended up with a big surplus so I'm going to refrain from believing the sky is falling just yet. At the time (May 2020) there was a projected $54B deficit but in the end we had a $75B surplus. For anyone interested in the discussion around the projected 2020 deficit - it's quite hilarious.

Our heavy reliance on cap gains to support the state is always going to be subject to economic cycles which is why I was against the tax refunds this year (ironically, probably something that wouldn't have happened had the dumb recall not been ginned up by GOPers in the state).



Couple good points. I looked at late 2022 numbers and went oh crap. But the reminder is the fiscal year ends June 30 which I forgot, so while the snap shot looks bad, still a half year plus to work it all out. Second comment, yes,Cal is way to dependent on income taxes, and in particular cap gains, which is why the state goes through wild fiscal swings.
DiabloWags
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Unit2Sucks said:

wifeisafurd said:

The article seems to suggest costs have been actually cut 3 plus % which is unusual for any state. The problem is revenues are down per the article. Recessionary winds in California? People moving their money or business out? Not sure.
Doesn't the article specifically cite reduction in capital gains, which is a major source of revenue for the state.

Our heavy reliance on cap gains to support the state is always going to be subject to economic cycles which is why I was against the tax refunds this year (ironically, probably something that wouldn't have happened had the dumb recall not been ginned up by GOPers in the state).




I didnt even have to read the article.
This should be obvious to anyone who has been paying attention.

Cap gains as a percentage of personal income reached a peak of 9.7% in 2021.
It's now expected to decline by 5% to 2025.

At least we have a Rainy Day Fund of $34.6 Billion.

But our State's tax structure and continued reliance on upper tax brackets makes for a very volatile income stream.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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