Mid-term thoughts

1,626 Views | 13 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by Another Bear
wifeisafurd
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At least the current NY Times thinking that the blue wave is not exactly cresting (does not necessarily reflect my views in entirety). Mid-terms are coming soon, so might as well have a separate thread. I think the House changes barley (be interesting to see what happens to GOP house members in Orange County), but GOP may pick-up more Senators given the election cycle. Sorta reflects what happens in mid-terms where the party in power takes some losses.

Why Aren't Democrats Walking Away With the Midterms? https://nyti.ms/2CUie17
Anarchistbear
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The average number of seats lost by a President with approval ratings in the 40's is 38. There's no reason to think Trump will be better than this since the election is solely about him. I'd guess 45 and the Repubs hold the Senate and pick up a seat. No wave just the usual churn.
dajo9
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In the House, Democrats have to win about 57% of the national vote to win the majority. Think about how far removed we are from a real democracy with that reality. A very likely scenario from this election is that the President, Senate, and House are all Republican despite the majority voting for Democrats for all 3.

The Senate is a historically bad map for Democrats this year and is an advantage for Republicans anyway because California's 40 million people only get 2 Senators.

I expect a wave election with Dems gaining over 40 House seats and taking some governorship. Notably, not Georgia which I don't believe is conducting a fair election. I think Dems pick up 1 seat in the Senate. 2 seats and control if the impossible happens with Beto in Texas.
American Vermin
Another Bear
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More people have already voted early in Texas than the complete '14 midterm.. Looks like a record. High voter turn out usually favors Democrats. Beto might sneak in with the high youth voter turn out.

Heck, just read an article that states Dems have more than a fighting chance with 6 senate races, lead the polls. Dems need 3 seats to get the senate.

On another note...W.T.F. is going on in Georgia and voter suppression? Seriously, it's 2018 and we still have the stinky shtt left over from Civil War and segregation. Heck, even some GOP in Georgia are disturbed and peeved by suppression. Seriously...FCCK THAT. Completely un-American.
wifeisafurd
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Anarchistbear said:

The average number of seats lost by a President with approval ratings in the 40's is 38. There's no reason to think Trump will be better than this since the election is solely about him. I'd guess 45 and the Repubs hold the Senate and pick up a seat. No wave just the usual churn.
What I was thinking, but said better. Though with Trump, the Dems s/b doing better.
BearChemist
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Anarchistbear said:

The average number of seats lost by a President with approval ratings in the 40's is 38. There's no reason to think Trump will be better than this since the election is solely about him. I'd guess 45 and the Repubs hold the Senate and pick up a seat. No wave just the usual churn.
The problem is though these historic numbers mostly preceded the GOP redistricting efforts in 2011, so the barrier should be higher now. Also, it is not hard to see Trump's campaigning strategy in this cycle is to motivate his base to vote.
bearister
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"At a rally in Montana yesterday, President Trump said when he turned to the fear-the-caravans part of his speech: "We have our military, now, on the border. [Cheers.] And I noticed all that beautiful barbed wire going up today. ... Barbed wire, used properly, can be a beautiful sight." Axios

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bearister
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The system is rigged.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/04/america-minority-rule-voter-suppression-gerrymandering-supreme-court?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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sycasey
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wifeisafurd said:

Anarchistbear said:

The average number of seats lost by a President with approval ratings in the 40's is 38. There's no reason to think Trump will be better than this since the election is solely about him. I'd guess 45 and the Repubs hold the Senate and pick up a seat. No wave just the usual churn.
What I was thinking, but said better. Though with Trump, the Dems s/b doing better.
Dems are an average of +8 on generic ballot polls, that's really damn good. They are absolutely wiping out Republicans on fundraising. It's only because of gerrymandering that Republicans have any prayer at all of keeping the House (though you won't find any respectable forecaster right now who thinks they will). They will only keep the Senate because they don't have many seats to defend.

The bigger story, IMO, is how badly Trump rates given a good economy and no major wars. The conditions are there for the bottom to fall out if either of those things goes badly.
Anarchistbear
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sycasey said:

wifeisafurd said:

Anarchistbear said:

The average number of seats lost by a President with approval ratings in the 40's is 38. There's no reason to think Trump will be better than this since the election is solely about him. I'd guess 45 and the Repubs hold the Senate and pick up a seat. No wave just the usual churn.
What I was thinking, but said better. Though with Trump, the Dems s/b doing better.
Dems are an average of +8 on generic ballot polls, that's really damn good. They are absolutely wiping out Republicans on fundraising. It's only because of gerrymandering that Republicans have any prayer at all of keeping the House (though you won't find any respectable forecaster right now who thinks they will). They will only keep the Senate because they don't have many seats to defend.

The bigger story, IMO, is how badly Trump rates given a good economy and no major wars. The conditions are there for the bottom to fall out if either of those things goes badly.


60% of the country has always viewed him unfavorably. He made this election all about him: he's still on the ballot but Clinton is not
sycasey
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bearister
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Watch The New Rules video:

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Another Bear
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From a former HRC aide. Perhaps this is presumptuous...or not, but it is direct, and on point. Trump has no one to blame or rival. It's all on him.

bearister
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David Brooks:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/opinion/democrats-midterms-immigration-nation.html
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Another Bear
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