Communities-Over-Commodities_Executive-Summary.pdf

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'A true emergency:' Covid-19 pushes homeless crisis in San Francisco's Tenderloin to the brink


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/19/a-true-emergency-covid-19-pushes-homeless-crisis-in-san-franciscos-tenderloin-to-the-brink?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


Perhaps someone has already answered this question in this thread:

If forcibly removing the addicted and those with mental health disorders from the streets and remanding them to facilities to be given proper care and treatment (even if against their will) is one option, what are the other options (other than the status quo)?

The true crisis will hit when the rent moratorium ends and tens of thousands of households still waiting for stimulus assistance are thrown out onto the streets.

sp4149 said:

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The true crisis will hit when the rent moratorium ends and tens of thousands of households still waiting for stimulus assistance are thrown out onto the streets.

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You need to read the California Judicial Council order umber 1. No evictions until next year probably unless they modify the order. There is whispering that the order will be modified to exclude high net business tenants who have gone on rent strikes, like Bed Bath and Beyond, but not residential tenants.

And those that did not set aside anything( for rent/ a plan/move in cost elsewhere ) are going to be doubly f 'ed. I'd say around Xmas season all hell is going to break loose. I'd expect homeless(CA) numbers to increase 2 to 3 times over 8-12 mos.

The problem is the stigmatism on those poor people(non rational) The public will is so far shifted away from spending less and getting more bang for the buck with PSH( permanent supportive housing) vs shelters and jail.


Any idea the percent of those living unhoused with mental illness and substance issues? Versus those that can not afford to the rent. When the IRS became the number one builder of poor and low income housing that locked in the mindset of get clean then you get an opportunity at housing.

Geez

Housing Crash 2021, as the pain escalating to the top from rent/mortgage defaults, affecting main street and the owning class. Nobody's really felt the pain yet. They will.

GBear4Life said:

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Housing Crash 2021, as the pain escalating to the top from rent/mortgage defaults, affecting main street and the owning class. Nobody's really felt the pain yet. They will.

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I'm gathering my resources now to be positioned to take advantage of the crash. I dont think it's a question of if but when. I also wonder which type of units will be effected, if only the small and low end housing is impacted or if it will include high end places as well.

golden sloth said:

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GBear4Life said:

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Housing Crash 2021, as the pain escalating to the top from rent/mortgage defaults, affecting main street and the owning class. Nobody's really felt the pain yet. They will.

---

I'm gathering my resources now to be positioned to take advantage of the crash. I dont think it's a question of if but when. I also wonder which type of units will be effected, if only the small and low end housing is impacted or if it will include high end places as well.

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As you should(hate I'm not in position to do same). I'm wondering how things will mesh out. Lots of potential turnover.

golden sloth said:

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GBear4Life said:

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Housing Crash 2021, as the pain escalating to the top from rent/mortgage defaults, affecting main street and the owning class. Nobody's really felt the pain yet. They will.

---

I'm gathering my resources now to be positioned to take advantage of the crash. I dont think it's a question of if but when. I also wonder which type of units will be effected, if only the small and low end housing is impacted or if it will include high end places as well.

---

If you can purchase residential without needing to rent it out for awhile, then I think it is a good long term play. You will, however, be competing with so many other landlords who have vacant properties. Commercial real estate would be horrible for awhile. I am also accumulating some excess cash, which I normally would not do considering low interest rate and much higher return on other investments.

Having said that, with so many lawyers here, I would also recommend dedicating some time for pro bono work to help families who are going to be displaced and help with efforts to find alternative resolution to eviction. Yes, it may not move the needle in the grand scheme of things, but it will move the needle for any family that we help. I can't imagine the destructive impact of a family suddenly becoming homeless, and, instead of focusing on statues or free college, we should prioritize affordable housing, temporary housing, support for landlords to allow them to forgive defaulted rent, and addressing food insecurity.

going4roses said:

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Geez

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Bullcrap article interviewing an "advocate", who provides no data or other support for her conclusions. I expect better from CNBC. It is propaganda articles like this that lead to the hysteria and dread that I see on line.

I assume we want to limit this discussion to residential, although what happens in commercial may have more impact, particularly in the short run, since commercial evictions and foreclosures mean job losses.

The Federal legislation ordered no foreclosure and eviction until July 22nd and that may be renewed in the next stimulus package. So there are no evictions or foreclosure so far, and may be for longer.

Then, Freddy Mac and Fannie Mae have a moratorium on foreclosures and evictions on single family homes for 12 months, which a fair amount of the financing for lower and middle class homeowners. In most states, lenders have agreed voluntarily noted force foreclosures or evictions, and in some states they can't legally in any event, but the agreements with the state governments is dictated on the banks receiving federal aide. But as typical examples, lenders in Arizona agreed to a suspend all actions through August and not ding credit reports for non-payment. They also indicated they would extend the suspension unless conditions dramatically improved. Add to the foreclosure take 3 months in Arizona, so take the lenders out of the game probably until the end of the year. This is fairly typical.

Over 30 states and various cities have extended federal protections through executive orders or state supreme court rulings, under a patchwork approach. For example, in California, Judicial Comm Emergency Rule NO. 1 there are no evictions or foreclosure until 90 days after Newsom's State of Emergency Order is lifted, which could be years.

The other side of this is many small landlords cannot continue to maintain and operate their properties without rental income coming in. So that raises the issue of federal or state support to provide for housing stabilization, These costs should not be pushed onto landlords because that will only create a greater crisis and will result in both landlords and tenants sliding down the socioeconomic scale.

But the advocate says there is no financial assistance, and she simply is full of ****. You look at just the City of Los Angeles which put in place in an Emergecy Rental Assistance Program which will pay the landlord rent for renters below a certain income level (below $83,500 for a family of 4). Long Beach, Santa Monica, San Diego, and other large cities in SoCal and large counties through out the State are doing the same, and the same is true in most states where large cities or counties are putting COVID rent stabilization. So are States: New York, Utah, Arizona (not a big fund), Colorado, Ohio, Maine, Montana, Maryland, Nevada, New Hampshire, Delaware, Massachusetts, etc. and more states where legislation is pending, Minnesota, Miss, etc., But a substantial portion of the population that has lost jobs or is low income will get their rent paid for some time, which assist both tenants, landlords, lenders, etc. The advocate insults the intelligence of government and business leaders and housing advocates who have been all over this issue.

Even before the coronavirus pandemic, housing advocates were already grappling with a shortage of affordable housing in cities across the country, and many people were facing evictions. The advocate has overlapped one crises on to another to jack up her bull numbers.

calbear93 said:

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golden sloth said:

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GBear4Life said:

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Housing Crash 2021, as the pain escalating to the top from rent/mortgage defaults, affecting main street and the owning class. Nobody's really felt the pain yet. They will.

---

I'm gathering my resources now to be positioned to take advantage of the crash. I dont think it's a question of if but when. I also wonder which type of units will be effected, if only the small and low end housing is impacted or if it will include high end places as well.

---

If you can purchase residential without needing to rent it out for awhile, then I think it is a good long term play. You will, however, be competing with so many other landlords who have vacant properties. Commercial real estate would be horrible for awhile. I am also accumulating some excess cash, which I normally would not do considering low interest rate and much higher return on other investments.

Having said that, with so many lawyers here, I would also recommend dedicating some time for pro bono work to help families who are going to be displaced and help with efforts to find alternative resolution to eviction. Yes, it may not move the needle in the grand scheme of things, but it will move the needle for any family that we help. I can't imagine the destructive impact of a family suddenly becoming homeless, and, instead of focusing on statues or free college, we should prioritize affordable housing, temporary housing, support for landlords to allow them to forgive defaulted rent, and addressing food insecurity.

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There is a lot of good stuff here.

A knit, but there is a lot of BS out there on some eviction crises. But what evictions (read the CARES Act?)? If you are doing pro bono now or in for some time in the future, you might be fairly lonely. Moreover, rent stabilization programs are becoming the norm for governments. In the meantime, you need to take a closer look at legal suspensions on evictions that will be a place fo some time before you launch that pro-bono firm.

wifeisafurd said:

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calbear93 said:

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golden sloth said:

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GBear4Life said:

---

Housing Crash 2021, as the pain escalating to the top from rent/mortgage defaults, affecting main street and the owning class. Nobody's really felt the pain yet. They will.

---

I'm gathering my resources now to be positioned to take advantage of the crash. I dont think it's a question of if but when. I also wonder which type of units will be effected, if only the small and low end housing is impacted or if it will include high end places as well.

---

If you can purchase residential without needing to rent it out for awhile, then I think it is a good long term play. You will, however, be competing with so many other landlords who have vacant properties. Commercial real estate would be horrible for awhile. I am also accumulating some excess cash, which I normally would not do considering low interest rate and much higher return on other investments.

Having said that, with so many lawyers here, I would also recommend dedicating some time for pro bono work to help families who are going to be displaced and help with efforts to find alternative resolution to eviction. Yes, it may not move the needle in the grand scheme of things, but it will move the needle for any family that we help. I can't imagine the destructive impact of a family suddenly becoming homeless, and, instead of focusing on statues or free college, we should prioritize affordable housing, temporary housing, support for landlords to allow them to forgive defaulted rent, and addressing food insecurity.

---

There is a lot of good stuff here.

A knit, but there is a lot of BS out there on some eviction crises. But what evictions (read the CARES Act?)? If you are doing pro bono now or in for some time in the future, you might be fairly lonely. Moreover, rent stabilization programs are becoming the norm for governments. In the meantime, you need to take a closer look at legal suspensions on evictions that will be a place fo some time before you launch that pro-bono firm.

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Why would I need to start a pro bono firm when you, me and anyone else can volunteer hours at centers that provide homelessness prevention and eviction defense? Do you start a pro bono firm every time you provide free legal services? Do you have your own firm for your pro bono work? And who is talking about current evictions? We are talking about future eviction. Is your thinking that there will not be a spike in future evictions as a result of accumulated but unpaid rent?

I am definitely not a real estate or tenant/landlord lawyer, but a corporate/securities/finance lawyer. But why would I not be able to do pro bono work on this matter at a pro bono clinic later on when this becomes a bigger issue (instead of just thinking about purchasing real estate cheap because of increase homelessness)?

Hmm I see

wifeisafurd said:

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going4roses said:

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Geez

---

Bullcrap article interviewing an "advocate", who provides no data or other support for her conclusions. I expect better from CNBC. It is propaganda articles like this that lead to the hysteria and dread that I see on line.

I assume we want to limit this discussion to residential, although what happens in commercial may have more impact, particularly in the short run, since commercial evictions and foreclosures mean job losses.

The Federal legislation ordered no foreclosure and eviction until July 22nd and that may be renewed in the next stimulus package. So there are no evictions or foreclosure so far, and may be for longer.

Then, Freddy Mac and Fannie Mae have a moratorium on foreclosures and evictions on single family homes for 12 months, which a fair amount of the financing for lower and middle class homeowners. In most states, lenders have agreed voluntarily noted force foreclosures or evictions, and in some states they can't legally in any event, but the agreements with the state governments is dictated on the banks receiving federal aide. But as typical examples, lenders in Arizona agreed to a suspend all actions through August and not ding credit reports for non-payment. They also indicated they would extend the suspension unless conditions dramatically improved. Add to the foreclosure take 3 months in Arizona, so take the lenders out of the game probably until the end of the year. This is fairly typical.

Over 30 states and various cities have extended federal protections through executive orders or state supreme court rulings, under a patchwork approach. For example, in California, Judicial Comm Emergency Rule NO. 1 there are no evictions or foreclosure until 90 days after Newsom's State of Emergency Order is lifted, which could be years.

The other side of this is many small landlords cannot continue to maintain and operate their properties without rental income coming in. So that raises the issue of federal or state support to provide for housing stabilization, These costs should not be pushed onto landlords because that will only create a greater crisis and will result in both landlords and tenants sliding down the socioeconomic scale.

But the advocate says there is no financial assistance, and she simply is full of ****. You look at just the City of Los Angeles which put in place in an Emergecy Rental Assistance Program which will pay the landlord rent for renters below a certain income level (below $83,500 for a family of 4). Long Beach, Santa Monica, San Diego, and other large cities in SoCal and large counties through out the State are doing the same, and the same is true in most states where large cities or counties are putting COVID rent stabilization. So are States: New York, Utah, Arizona (not a big fund), Colorado, Ohio, Maine, Montana, Maryland, Nevada, New Hampshire, Delaware, Massachusetts, etc. and more states where legislation is pending, Minnesota, Miss, etc., But a substantial portion of the population that has lost jobs or is low income will get their rent paid for some time, which assist both tenants, landlords, lenders, etc. The advocate insults the intelligence of government and business leaders and housing advocates who have been all over this issue.

Even before the coronavirus pandemic, housing advocates were already grappling with a shortage of affordable housing in cities across the country, and many people were facing evictions. The advocate has overlapped one crises on to another to jack up her bull numbers.

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I was not aware of these programs to help the landlords. Good to know they are doing the smart thing instead of placing the burden on landlords.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/14/minimum-wage-workers-cannot-afford-rent-in-any-us-state.html?__twitter_impression=true

calbear93 said:

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golden sloth said:

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GBear4Life said:

---

Housing Crash 2021, as the pain escalating to the top from rent/mortgage defaults, affecting main street and the owning class. Nobody's really felt the pain yet. They will.

---

I'm gathering my resources now to be positioned to take advantage of the crash. I dont think it's a question of if but when. I also wonder which type of units will be effected, if only the small and low end housing is impacted or if it will include high end places as well.

---

If you can purchase residential without needing to rent it out for awhile, then I think it is a good long term play. You will, however, be competing with so many other landlords who have vacant properties. Commercial real estate would be horrible for awhile. I am also accumulating some excess cash, which I normally would not do considering low interest rate and much higher return on other investments.

Having said that, with so many lawyers here, I would also recommend dedicating some time for pro bono work to help families who are going to be displaced and help with efforts to find alternative resolution to eviction. Yes, it may not move the needle in the grand scheme of things, but it will move the needle for any family that we help. I can't imagine the destructive impact of a family suddenly becoming homeless, and, instead of focusing on statues or free college, we should prioritize affordable housing, temporary housing, support for landlords to allow them to forgive defaulted rent, and addressing food insecurity.

---

I would think (residential) rent demand would increase as prices go up (unaffordable housing) and even more so as homeowners are foreclosed on and turned into renters.

Home ownership rates have never been lower given mass quantities of residential real estate once owned by owner-occupants were turned over to institutional investors by banks during the last crash. I'm not a fan of the fact that real estate has been turned over to speculators, enabled by governments, and now subject to mass swings, bubbles and crashes. Although I'm not sure how to inhibit it other than raising interest rates and assessing higher tax rates/penalties for non primary residences.

GBear4Life said:

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calbear93 said:

---

golden sloth said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

Housing Crash 2021, as the pain escalating to the top from rent/mortgage defaults, affecting main street and the owning class. Nobody's really felt the pain yet. They will.

---

I'm gathering my resources now to be positioned to take advantage of the crash. I dont think it's a question of if but when. I also wonder which type of units will be effected, if only the small and low end housing is impacted or if it will include high end places as well.

---

If you can purchase residential without needing to rent it out for awhile, then I think it is a good long term play. You will, however, be competing with so many other landlords who have vacant properties. Commercial real estate would be horrible for awhile. I am also accumulating some excess cash, which I normally would not do considering low interest rate and much higher return on other investments.

Having said that, with so many lawyers here, I would also recommend dedicating some time for pro bono work to help families who are going to be displaced and help with efforts to find alternative resolution to eviction. Yes, it may not move the needle in the grand scheme of things, but it will move the needle for any family that we help. I can't imagine the destructive impact of a family suddenly becoming homeless, and, instead of focusing on statues or free college, we should prioritize affordable housing, temporary housing, support for landlords to allow them to forgive defaulted rent, and addressing food insecurity.

---

I would think (residential) rent demand would increase as prices go up (unaffordable housing) and even more so as homeowners are foreclosed on and turned into renters.

Home ownership rates have never been lower given mass quantities of residential real estate once owned by owner-occupants were turned over to institutional investors by banks during the last crash. I'm not a fan of the fact that real estate has been turned over to speculators, enabled by governments, and now subject to mass swings, bubbles and crashes. Although I'm not sure how to inhibit it other than raising interest rates and assessing higher tax rates/penalties for non primary residences.

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I think certain other countries have higher property taxes for residential properties owned beyond the first one. I think South Korea does that. Also, I believe Canada started putting restrictions on foreign investors in real estate.

Why stop at foreign speculators? Why not domestic as well. Let the speculators fight with eachother over commercial and large multi family properties, a market your average homeowner isn't and will never be a part of anyways.

GBear4Life said:

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Why stop at foreign speculators? Why not domestic as well. Let the speculators fight with eachother over commercial and large multi family properties, a market your average homeowner isn't and will never be a part of anyways.

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I agree.

Chines speculators would swoop up prime RE in those prime cities, and domestic residents in those prime areas will swoop up cheaper non prime RE in cheaper suburbs (like bay area and L.A. residents buying SFH in the central valley)

Yes, I grabbed your post from another thread ("maybe this is the best we can do"), because my article below is about homelessness and that thread was about sports.

parentswerebears said:

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No wonder I've been losing interest in college sports. Think of all the good things people could do with that money. Instead they waste it on entertainment. I volunteer at a homeless shelter, and if I had an extra million dollars, the shelter would get a check. I wouldn't waste it on sports.

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HOW HOUSTON MOVED 25,000 HOMELESS INTO HOUSING, WHERE THEY LARGELY REMAIN 2 YEARS LATER:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/houston-moved-25-000-people-132726004.html

concordtom said:

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Yes, I grabbed your post from another thread ("maybe this is the best we can do"), because my article below is about homelessness and that thread was about sports.

parentswerebears said:

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No wonder I've been losing interest in college sports. Think of all the good things people could do with that money. Instead they waste it on entertainment. I volunteer at a homeless shelter, and if I had an extra million dollars, the shelter would get a check. I wouldn't waste it on sports.

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HOW HOUSTON MOVED 25,000 HOMELESS INTO HOUSING, WHERE THEY LARGELY REMAIN 2 YEARS LATER:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/houston-moved-25-000-people-132726004.html

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Piggybacking off your post

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/14/headway/houston-homeless-people.html

A final research paper for a homeless course I took was based around this case study.
Aced my paper and the course / which also included field study working with unhoused people/children on the streets of Oakland and SF as well as public meetings.

This way of attacking homeless did not fair so well in Austin because of higher housing costs.