Numbers going up: USA! USA! USA!

3,938 Views | 117 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by dimitrig
Big C
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Maybe it's the sports fan in me, but I can get a little obsessed with watching the state, national and international COVID-19 numbers. Well, yesterday the US shot passed France (Freedom Fries, anyone?) and doubled(!) South Korea's numbers...

We are now closing in on Germany (hey, we still remember the world wars) and... Iran (hey, we still remember a lot of things, you Persians)!

After we sweep by them, we will be going after the bronze (Spain), the silver (Italy) and the GOLD (China)! If you didn't think we'd ever be able to catch China, note that their numbers have reached a plateau, while ours are skyrocketing.

For you little Euro countries that say, sure, but the US has a much bigger population than we Lichtensteinesque countries do, I say we make no apologies for competing in the Heavyweight Division! If you want to really compete, annex each other or something.

Looking state by state, our California numbers (971) look paltry compared to New York's over 7,000. Dammit Newsom: You're piddlying around with "shelter in place" while your counterpart, Andrew Cuomo, knows how to score! Do some testing, Gavin! Get on TV while you skype with the head of Kaiser and demand more drive-thru testing, complete with on-site analysis! Ask the head of One-hour Martinizing how THEY do it!

Special "Improvement" participation trophy to West (By God) Virginia, who has INFINITELY increased its numbers this week, going from zero to two!

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Special note to anyone who thinks this post is inappropriate or morbid or whatever: Give me a freaking break; the possibly lame attempts at humor are helping me cope. I wish everybody the best of health, even the pangolin who started this.
bearister
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You are a twisted, sick f@uck...but you have to respect that.
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golden sloth
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We are going to win when all is said and done. The complete and utter failure by the government to ramp up testing capacity has doomed us to widespread infection. Newsome said last night they are projecting 56% of Californians will have it, that is 20 million infected.

I am curious to know if I've already had it. I had a bad cold in mid February and my pm had a bad cold in early march which gave me the sniffles. I'm wondering if I've already had it and recovered, and if I'm not contagious, will I be allowed to not shelter in place?
Anarchistbear
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Disease of ****ty First World cultures.
bearister
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My wife and I think we had it. That German study said most think it is a cold. They do not want to publicize that because it cuts down on the fear factor and obedience to shelter in place will take a hit...so I am glad they are suppressing that fact.
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BearChemist
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bearister said:

My wife and I think we had it. That German study said most think it is a cold. They do not want to publicize that because it cuts down on the fear factor and obedience to shelter in place will take a hit...so I am glad they are suppressing that fact.
If you mean for some (or majority) people the symptoms are like common cold, I have the same question. Of course I am not gonna run into a clinic and demand a test, not that I would get one, but when things are said and done I hope there will be a separate antibody test for checking who has been infected. Knowing that you are at least temporarily immunized should calm a lot of people.
bearister
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BearChemist said:

bearister said:

My wife and I think we had it. That German study said most think it is a cold. They do not want to publicize that because it cuts down on the fear factor and obedience to shelter in place will take a hit...so I am glad they are suppressing that fact.
If you mean for some (or majority) people the symptoms are like common cold, I have the same question. Of course I am not gonna run into a clinic and demand a test, not that I would get one, but when things are said and done I hope there will be a separate antibody test for checking who has been infected. Knowing that you are at least temporarily immunized should calm a lot of people.


Here is the study:

COVID-19 Can Look Like the Common Cold, Researchers Say


https://www.jwatch.org/fw116437/2020/03/10/covid-19-can-look-common-cold-researchers-say

"The researchers say the current case definition for COVID-19, which emphasizes lower respiratory tract disease, may need to be adjusted."
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sycasey
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bearister said:

My wife and I think we had it. That German study said most think it is a cold. They do not want to publicize that because it cuts down on the fear factor and obedience to shelter in place will take a hit...so I am glad they are suppressing that fact.

My whole family of four also had colds around that time, with coughs that lingered longer than normal. I do wonder if that was it.
m2bear
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bearister said:




Here is the study:

COVID-19 Can Look Like the Common Cold, Researchers Say


https://www.jwatch.org/fw116437/2020/03/10/covid-19-can-look-common-cold-researchers-say

"The researchers say the current case definition for COVID-19, which emphasizes lower respiratory tract disease, may need to be adjusted."
Other than the fact that it's not true.

Do these people look like they have the common cold ?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_J60fQr0GWo&feature=emb_logo



God this board sucks when trying to edit !


bearister
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I guess to spell it out for you I should have added that many people get seriously ill and some die. I didn't think I had to be that obvious. Please post your medical research that indicates the German study linked in my post is untrue.

As I have stated in a couple of my posts, I surmise they are suppressing the fact that many in the Bay Area have already had the virus and wrote it off as a cold because that fact would not be helpful in scaring everyone into compliance with the shelter in place order. It is a strategy that I fully agree with since far too many people are selfish and undisciplined and thus the only time you get their attention is when you put them in fear of their own self preservation.
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sycasey
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m2bear said:

bearister said:




Here is the study:

COVID-19 Can Look Like the Common Cold, Researchers Say


https://www.jwatch.org/fw116437/2020/03/10/covid-19-can-look-common-cold-researchers-say

"The researchers say the current case definition for COVID-19, which emphasizes lower respiratory tract disease, may need to be adjusted."
Other than the fact that it's not true.

Do these people look like they have the common cold ?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_J60fQr0GWo&feature=emb_logo



God this board sucks when trying to edit !




It causes a variety of symptoms in different people, and sometimes none at all. Not everyone has the most severe reaction. That's what makes it so tricky to contain.
m2bear
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1 out of every 10 people in Italy that get the virus... are dying.

Let that sink in for a second.

The common cold doesn't do that to people. In fact, the people that think they may have CV may actually have the common cold.

The lungs are not something to be messed with.
bearister
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m2bear said:

1 out of every 10 people in Italy that get the virus... are dying.

Let that sink in for a second.

The common cold doesn't do that to people. In fact, the people that think they may have CV may actually have the common cold.

The lungs are not something to be messed with.


If you calm down, take some deep breaths and let me do the research for you, I am confident I can help you understand things.

With regard to the high virus mortality rate in Italy:

" Of the 47,000 people confirmed coronavirus patients in Italy, 4,032 so far have died - with a record increase of 627 in the last 24 hours.

"By contrast China has almost twice as many cases, 81,250, but 3,253 fatalities.

In very crude terms, this means that around eight per cent of confirmed coronavirus patients have died in Italy, compared to four per cent in China. By this measure Germany, which has so far identified 13,000 cases and 42 deaths, has a fatality rate of just 0.3 per cent.

So why the disparity?

According to Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy's minister of health, the country's mortality rate is far higher due to demographics - the nation has the second oldest population worldwide - and the manner in which hospitals record deaths.


"The age of our patients in hospitals is substantially older - the median is 67, while in China it was 46," Prof Ricciardi says. "So essentially the age distribution of our patients is squeezed to an older age and this is substantial in increasing the lethality."

A study in JAMA this week found that almost 40 per cent of infections and 87 per cent of deaths in the country have been in patients over 70 years old."


The supporting article:

Why have so many coronavirus patients died in Italy?


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/amp/
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sycasey
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m2bear said:

1 out of every 10 people in Italy that get the virus... are dying.

Let that sink in for a second.

The common cold doesn't do that to people. In fact, the people that think they may have CV may actually have the common cold.

The lungs are not something to be messed with.

I don't think anyone is disagreeing with you here, though you seem to think we are.
bearister
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sycasey said:

m2bear said:

1 out of every 10 people in Italy that get the virus... are dying.

Let that sink in for a second.

The common cold doesn't do that to people. In fact, the people that think they may have CV may actually have the common cold.

The lungs are not something to be messed with.

I don't think anyone is disagreeing with you here, though you seem to think we are.


He is the one that doesn't want to hear the fact for for 80% of Americans that get the virus it won't be that big of a deal. That fact was confirmed by Governor Cuomo this morning in his press conference. The issue with Italy is that it has an aging population with a median age of 45 (United States, 38). He is the one that initiated the argument with my fact based post. He just wants to argue. He can argue with an empty room now because class has been dismissed.
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m2bear
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The reason that its "not a big deal"... is that people are getting hospital care.

My cousin is a doctor at UCSF and she told me that when everyone eventually gets tested and confirmed to have the virus. They won't have enough hospital beds to care for those that have been getting care they are receiving now.

We were late to the party by not testing 2 months ago.

I hope she and I are wrong.
bearister
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m2bear said:

The reason that its "not a big deal"... is that people are getting hospital care.

My cousin is a doctor at UCSF and she told me that when everyone eventually gets tested and confirmed to have the virus. They won't have enough hospital beds to care for those that have been getting care they are receiving now.

We were late to the party by not testing 2 months ago.

I hope she and I are wrong.


What don't you get about 80% won't need hospital care? ....but the plus/minus 20% that need hospitalization will still overwhelm the system. I think you should review a video of Governor Cuomo's press conference of this morning.

Here ya go. It is very educational:

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golden sloth
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m2bear said:

The reason that its "not a big deal"... is that people are getting hospital care.

My cousin is a doctor at UCSF and she told me that when everyone eventually gets tested and confirmed to have the virus. They won't have enough hospital beds to care for those that have been getting care they are receiving now.

We were late to the party by not testing 2 months ago.

I hope she and I are wrong.
I think you are guys are not necessarily disagreeing. For the vast majority of people who are infected with Covid19, it will hit them like a bad cold (which is to say, it won't be a big deal). However, that means there is a small but substantial portion of the population where being infected by the disease is a big deal. The problem is that the disease is very easily transmittable, so due to the sheer volume of infected, the number comprising that 'small but substantial' segment will be very large and may easily overwhelm capacity.

That said, the shelter in orders are hopefully slowing the spread, allowing hospitals and facilities to prepare for the surge in cases. I know Stanford Medical Center put some renovation work set to start in April on hold to maintain patient bed capacity to treat potential patients, and I know Newsome requested an army medical ship provide assistance in LA. These are the types of measures being taken to try to cope with the surge in patients. Unfortunately, Newsome mentioned that 56% of California could become infected (that is probably on the high side), but that would mean 20 million people and if 1% comprise that 'small but substantial' portion, that is still 200,000 people, and that would be a low percentage, (the current confirmed total of infections is 304,000, though the number is likely higher as those not exhibiting symptoms beyond a cold did not get tested).
Big C
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Meanwhile, back to the count:

We are very, very close to overtaking Spain for "third place". A few days ago, we were still behind France, but we are on track to DOUBLING them in another day or two. (Of course our population is much greater, so it stands to reason.)

State by state, New York is WAY up there, with over 7000 cases. New Jersey has passed California for third (WA is still 2nd). Not surprising, as NJ is sort of New York's little sister. New York and New Jersey also probably TEST a lot more people than we do, too.

Just note, folks, that I am not trivializing or making light of this. My goodness, my mother grew up in Brooklyn and I still have some family in the greater NYC area. Spent a summer playing stick ball on the streets of Queens when I was about eleven. NY is dear to my heart and I'm hoping for the best for them back there.
golden sloth
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I think the better stat to follow is deaths per capita. I don't really care if I'm in a place where a lot of people catch the disease, it is a highly contagious disease, it will make its way around. What I do care about, is if those infected are dying. The per capita part just adjusts per population.
B.A. Bearacus
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bearlyamazing
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The mortality rate figures thrown around are utterly meaningless. There are countless people who have or have had it that weren't hit hard and never got tested so they're not part of the data.
Big C
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True that all the data is subject to question, though I wouldn't go so far as to say "utterly meaningless". The number of people testing positive is dependent on the number of people being tested (plus who knows if the reporting is accurate or manipulated) The number of deaths is dependent on "officials" classifying it as a COVID-19 death (an 85-yr-old dying of "pneumonia" may or may not be counted, especially if a country wants to keep their numbers down for political reasons).

Meanwhile, New York just past the 10,000 cases mark. Geez, they are skyrocketing. Stay strong, NY!
Big C
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Cases reported as of late Sunday afternoon (3/22):

Top Countries (to nearest thousand)

China, 81k
Italy, 59k
USA, 34k
Spain, 29k
Germany, 25k
Iran, 22k
France, 16k

Top States (to nearest hundred)

NY, 15,000
WA, 2000
NJ, 1900
CA, 1500
MI, 1000

These numbers have changed dramatically in only the past few days. Well, except for China.

Source: MSN COVID-19 Tracker (updated several times a day)
bearister
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Maybe wine is the antidote based on Napa County's stats.
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sycasey
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Big C said:

Cases reported as of late Sunday afternoon (3/21):

Countries (to nearest thousand)

China, 81k
Italy, 59k
USA, 34k
Spain, 29k
Germany, 25k
Iran, 22k
France, 16k

States (to nearest hundred)

NY, 15,000
WA, 2000
NJ, 1900
CA, 1500
MI, 1000

These numbers have changed dramatically in only the past few days. Well, except for China.

Man, NYC looks really effed.
Anarchistbear
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If you look at the CDC website it says 15,200 cases with the following caveat:

"This page will be updated regularly at noon Mondays through Fridays. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting."

In other words they are still on last thursday? The numbers are purposely being kept low by the government.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
Big C
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I think NY is effed right now, but distorting those statistics is the fact that 8-10 days ago, NY was in "testing mode", whereas California wasn't even trying to test a lot and had largely gone to "shelter in place" mode. I'm sure most everywhere wishes they could turn the clock back even a few weeks and get an earlier start on this.

Meanwhile, Florida looks like they will be the next state to hit four-figures. It could be trouble there, what with all the retired people up and down each coast. And all the East Coasters coming and going there really spread things.
dimitrig
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Big C said:

I think NY is effed right now, but distorting those statistics is the fact that 8-10 days ago, NY was in "testing mode", whereas California wasn't even trying to test a lot and had largely gone to "shelter in place" mode. I'm sure most everywhere wishes they could turn the clock back even a few weeks and get an earlier start on this.

Meanwhile, Florida looks like they will be the next state to hit four-figures. It could be trouble there, what with all the retired people up and down each coast. And all the East Coasters coming and going there really spread things.

It will be just as bad in California as in New York. Maybe we aren't as dense in population as they are and so that could help, but we also have a lot more exposure to China and Asia in general. I would imagine LA and SF Bay won't be too different from NYC in the end.
golden sloth
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dimitrig said:

Big C said:

I think NY is effed right now, but distorting those statistics is the fact that 8-10 days ago, NY was in "testing mode", whereas California wasn't even trying to test a lot and had largely gone to "shelter in place" mode. I'm sure most everywhere wishes they could turn the clock back even a few weeks and get an earlier start on this.

Meanwhile, Florida looks like they will be the next state to hit four-figures. It could be trouble there, what with all the retired people up and down each coast. And all the East Coasters coming and going there really spread things.

It will be just as bad in California as in New York. Maybe we aren't as dense in population as they are and so that could help, but we also have a lot more exposure to China and Asia in general. I would imagine LA and SF Bay won't be too different from NYC in the end.

At this point, I don't think we need to worry about our exposure to China, its already here, and we are spreading it among ourselves.
golden sloth
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My brother in LA said the beach closest to him has been quarantined. Not 'shelter in place' or closed, but quarantined. He speculates that the homeless encampment there caused the disease to go crazy.
bearister
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dimitrig said:


It will be just as bad in California as in New York. Maybe we aren't as dense in population as they are and so that could help, but we also have a lot more exposure to China and Asia in general. I would imagine LA and SF Bay won't be too different from NYC in the end.



I am very confused. They say the guy from the cruise ship that died in Placer County was most likely infected before he got on the ship and that he contracted the virus in the community in early February...and that it has been circulating around here since possibly January. So it is one of two things: It has taken time for the disease to roll out or lots of people have had it and gotten over it and we are not going to be NYC or Italy.

Coronavirus may have been circulating in California since early February


https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/Coronavirus-may-have-been-circulating-in-15114035.php
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sfchronicle.com/health/amp/Coronavirus-may-have-been-circulating-in-15114035.php

" Some infectious disease experts believe that the virus probably has been circulating to some degree in the United States since early February or even January."
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Professor David Romer
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dimitrig said:

Big C said:

I think NY is effed right now, but distorting those statistics is the fact that 8-10 days ago, NY was in "testing mode", whereas California wasn't even trying to test a lot and had largely gone to "shelter in place" mode. I'm sure most everywhere wishes they could turn the clock back even a few weeks and get an earlier start on this.

Meanwhile, Florida looks like they will be the next state to hit four-figures. It could be trouble there, what with all the retired people up and down each coast. And all the East Coasters coming and going there really spread things.

It will be just as bad in California as in New York. Maybe we aren't as dense in population as they are and so that could help, but we also have a lot more exposure to China and Asia in general. I would imagine LA and SF Bay won't be too different from NYC in the end.
It's only a guess, but I think New York City alone will push them way above us. Plus the state has been among the earliest to tell people to stay home. Doesn't mean things won't get exponentially worse for a while, but I think the rate of infection will start decreasing here first.

Whenever that is (?????)
Cal88
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Big C said:

Cases reported as of late Sunday afternoon (3/21):

Countries (to nearest thousand)

China, 81k
Italy, 59k
USA, 34k
Spain, 29k
Germany, 25k
Iran, 22k
France, 16k

States (to nearest hundred)

NY, 15,000
WA, 2000
NJ, 1900
CA, 1500
MI, 1000

These numbers have changed dramatically in only the past few days. Well, except for China.

The numbers are gross underestimations, France and Italy are already well over 100,000, as is the US, and China in the mid six figures. You don't get major celebrities, star pro athletes and a bunch of high level politicians infected without having a high enough base.

Also, there are major discrepancies across countries in the approach to covid19 fatality tabulation. Italy reports all death cases as C19, whereas Germany classifies most comorbidity cases as caused by their underlying disease, so Italy overestimates, while Germany underestimates.
bearister
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College students are still going out despite coronavirus warnings - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-college-students-quarantine-afa891c7-28a4-4cd8-8a79-d5a1a47a96dc.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
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