President Trump's Economic Report Card (pre-COVID)

1,699 Views | 6 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by AunBear89
Cave Bear
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Trump's economic sales pitch is that the economy was doing great before COVID-19. Let's see what the reality is by looking at these major indicators up to the end of 2019 and comparing them to Obama's 2nd term.

Real GDP (annual avg)
Trump: 2.5%
Obama: 2.2%

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1#0

Stock Indexes (percent gain)
Trump: S&P +44%, Nasdaq +67%
Obama: S&P +53%, Nasdaq +74%

Real Wage Growth (annual avg)
Trump: 0.8%
Obama: 1.1%

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/real-average-weekly-earnings-up-0-point-7-percent-from-february-2019-to-february-2020.htm

Real Wage Growth, Production and Non-Supervisory (annual avg)
Trump: 0.8%
Obama: 1.4%

Inflation (CPI annual avg)
Trump: 2.1%
Obama: 1.1%

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator/consumer-price-index-1913-

Average Annual Deficit (inf adj 2012 $)
Trump: $732 billion
Obama: $667 billion

https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1929_2020USk_11s1li011mcny_G0f_Deficits_In_Inflation-adjusted_Dollars

Non-Elderly Without Health Insurance
Trump: 10.2% in 2017, 10.4% in 2018 (2019 data not yet available)
Obama: 16.8% in 2013, 10.2% in 2017

https://www.kff.org/uninsured/issue-brief/key-facts-about-the-uninsured-population/

Summary
There is no rational case for the Trump economy being good, even before the corona crash. Of all these indicators, Trump has an edge in only one: total production. In everything else, Obama outperforms Trump. Under Obama, wages grew faster (especially for blue collar workers), inflation was lower, the stock markets gained more, the federal government ran smaller deficits, and 20 million Americans gained health insurance.

If Obama gets a C for his economy, Trump deserved a D- heading into 2020
Unit2Sucks
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Everything you say is true but conservatives prefer the 1984 approach that everything was bad under Obama (when Fox told them it was so) and everything is great now under Trump (since Fox has told them it is so).

I posted this in one of the Trump threads in response to someone claiming Trump had been a boon for the economy [Just to be clear, this is not a response to the OP, but one I made to a different person originally who seemed to claim that the positive proof points were indicative of actions Trump had taken]:

You don't seem to understand that none of these things are evidence of anything Trump has done. These are all up and to the right graphs. If I removed the time scale there is no chance you could pinpoint when Trump took office or when Trump enacted some legislation or policy that moved the needle. Some of these are even flat - like personal savings rate which is back to where it was from 2014-2016.

This isn't a trick question. I'm asking you to point out how something Trump has done (through policy, legislation or otherwise) has created a positive economic benefit for the middle class. Simply pointing to a chart without tying it to some action Trump has specifically taken is not good enough.

By the way, for convenience I've attached each chart you referenced without the time scale so please feel free to point to these when you show me what Trump has done (each of them started during Obama's term and ends at the present).









Cave Bear
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Unit2Sucks said:

Everything you say is true but conservatives prefer the 1984 approach that everything was bad under Obama (when Fox told them it was so) and everything is great now under Trump (since Fox has told them it is so).

I posted this in one of the Trump threads in response to someone claiming Trump had been a boon for the economy:

You don't seem to understand that none of these things are evidence of anything Trump has done. These are all up and to the right graphs. If I removed the time scale there is no chance you could pinpoint when Trump took office or when Trump enacted some legislation or policy that moved the needle. Some of these are even flat - like personal savings rate which is back to where it was from 2014-2016.

This isn't a trick question. I'm asking you to point out how something Trump has done (through policy, legislation or otherwise) has created a positive economic benefit for the middle class. Simply pointing to a chart without tying it to some action Trump has specifically taken is not good enough.

By the way, for convenience I've attached each chart you referenced without the time scale so please feel free to point to these when you show me what Trump has done (each of them started during Obama's term and ends at the present).
Edit:

This post confused me initially, but I think I get it now. For the record I stipulate that I can't connect individual actions by either Trump or Obama to every result. I doubt anyone can. They're definitely imperfect pictures of performance but I think they tell a persuasive story.
dajo9
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If you want to see a Trump impact show the deficit chart. Trump has exploded it.
American Vermin
chazzed
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dajo9 said:

If you want to see a Trump impact show the deficit chart. Trump has exploded it.


Yet certain people want to talk about the danger of mortgaging our future to save tens or hundreds of thousands of people to Covid-19.
Unit2Sucks
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chazzed said:

Yet certain people want to talk about the danger of mortgaging our future to save tens or hundreds of thousands of people to Covid-19.


We already mortgaged our future so that corporations could spend billions on stock buybacks, but it didn't prevent their stock from collapsing. Actually saving lives seems like a pretty good tradeoff by comparison. Of course it would have been better to have taken decisive action to prevent this meltdown, but that would require competence and the GOP never wanted a well functioning government.
Cave Bear
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chazzed said:

dajo9 said:

If you want to see a Trump impact show the deficit chart. Trump has exploded it.
Yet certain people want to talk about the danger of mortgaging our future to save tens or hundreds of thousands of people to Covid-19.
Are we now going to look out for everybody, or just people at-risk from COVID-19? If we're going to look out for everybody then I'm all for a China-style lockdown, but then there must be comprehensive medical and housing services for the entire populace -- not just during a pandemic but during the status quo. It cannot be "we're all in this together against COVID" but if you get cancer and can't afford life-saving treatment you die, or if you can't afford a home you live on the street (or in prison, as GB4L would prefer). If we're not going to look out for everybody, then this is just a one-off cost transfer from those at elevated risk from COVID-19 to everyone who isn't.

I also think the shelter-in-place order needn't have been so broad to save lives. An order that kept the at-risk population sequestered but everyone else still going to work could have saved lives and inflicted less damage. Would it have saved as many lives as the present orders? No, but the present orders won't save as many lives as the orders in China. Why isn't the majority here clamoring vociferously for the maximum protection to save the most lives possible?
AunBear89
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But I saw that post in another thread that had the list from White House website of all of Great Leader's great accomplishments. You know the list - the one that gives GoldenOnenote such a hard on?

So all this other stuff must be fake news cuz Fox and a GoldenOnenote told me so!
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
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