Four games into the season, our next game to be in October, the drop in defensive production, particularly against the pass is the biggest unfortunate surprise. For a defensive-minded HC, I have to think this will improve, and hopefully soon...
Thankfully there has been a very pleasant surprise with the offense. Yards per play is generally recognized as one of the best single metrics to ascertain offensive effectiveness. On average we currently have a 53/47 pass/run ratio. Pretty darn balanced and certainly not pass-heavy. Nationally, an average gain for an attempted pass is about 7.2 yards, while on the ground, the average gain is about 4.2...
Games through September under JW - offense yards/play:
2017 - #96 5.21
2018 - #103 5.23
2019 - #105 5.13
2020 - #123 4.47 (pandemic season, just four games)
For this season, a noteworthy improvement:
2021 - #34 6.68
We have a veteran QB, and that helps, but I think we'd also all agree he's not showing signs of being the next AR or Goff. It also doesn't seem that we possess rare talent at the other skill positions. Meaning, we are being pretty darn effective without star players. To this point... kudos to Musgrave.
For reference, SD, in his last three seasons, with NFL QBs and receivers, averaged about the same in those Aug/Sep games at 6.85 yards per play. All four seasons under SD, the average was a bit less than now at 6.45.
Under JT, in his last four years here (2009-2012), 6.24 was the best, in 2009...
Another metric I like is 3rd down efficiency. We are in the top 30 with a conversion rate over 47%. Since 2009, only once did we start better going into Oct, and that was in 2015.
The offense is nothing to aspire to of course, but relative to others in FBS, it's actually pretty good; and certainly compared to our recent past, a noteworthy improvement. If matched with a more customary JW D for which we grew accustomed the previous years, this team is likely undefeated.
There's every reason to be critical of Cal performance because 1-3 merits such, but the offense is indeed a bright spot. Being in the bottom half of FBS with respect to penalties (102nd in yards) and TO margin is very much contributory; and like having a poor defense to this point, that too is uncharacteristic of our JW teams in prior years. I want to believe at least some these shortcomings are correctable, and if so, the wins will follow...
The Cougs are 89th in D (yards per play allowed) and 91st in on offense (yards per play). Cal wins this Saturday, and it better not be a nail-bitter...
Thankfully there has been a very pleasant surprise with the offense. Yards per play is generally recognized as one of the best single metrics to ascertain offensive effectiveness. On average we currently have a 53/47 pass/run ratio. Pretty darn balanced and certainly not pass-heavy. Nationally, an average gain for an attempted pass is about 7.2 yards, while on the ground, the average gain is about 4.2...
Games through September under JW - offense yards/play:
2017 - #96 5.21
2018 - #103 5.23
2019 - #105 5.13
2020 - #123 4.47 (pandemic season, just four games)
For this season, a noteworthy improvement:
2021 - #34 6.68
We have a veteran QB, and that helps, but I think we'd also all agree he's not showing signs of being the next AR or Goff. It also doesn't seem that we possess rare talent at the other skill positions. Meaning, we are being pretty darn effective without star players. To this point... kudos to Musgrave.
For reference, SD, in his last three seasons, with NFL QBs and receivers, averaged about the same in those Aug/Sep games at 6.85 yards per play. All four seasons under SD, the average was a bit less than now at 6.45.
Under JT, in his last four years here (2009-2012), 6.24 was the best, in 2009...
Another metric I like is 3rd down efficiency. We are in the top 30 with a conversion rate over 47%. Since 2009, only once did we start better going into Oct, and that was in 2015.
The offense is nothing to aspire to of course, but relative to others in FBS, it's actually pretty good; and certainly compared to our recent past, a noteworthy improvement. If matched with a more customary JW D for which we grew accustomed the previous years, this team is likely undefeated.
There's every reason to be critical of Cal performance because 1-3 merits such, but the offense is indeed a bright spot. Being in the bottom half of FBS with respect to penalties (102nd in yards) and TO margin is very much contributory; and like having a poor defense to this point, that too is uncharacteristic of our JW teams in prior years. I want to believe at least some these shortcomings are correctable, and if so, the wins will follow...
The Cougs are 89th in D (yards per play allowed) and 91st in on offense (yards per play). Cal wins this Saturday, and it better not be a nail-bitter...
Sig test...