Clickbait title only cause it amuses me. Spoiler: there is no #2...

Since I know how much y'all like to argue on here, here's one to chew on.

The following works under the premise that I think we can all agree on: the average bay area sports fans who is not already a Cal season ticket holder is not circling 2025 Cal games on the calendar as a "must attend event that I'm geeked about and can't wait for" and buying tickets.

The product on the field is mediocre at best. Coaching is the major suspect. Not many people are exchanging their dollars to "enjoy" this product on the field.

The results? Empty seats at home games. The result of the empty seats? Lost revenue. So, here we go, strap in.

This is all cocktail napkin math, I used my buddy Elon errrr Grok as a source. This is all spitballing, hand grenades and horseshoes - not perfect, but in the ballpark. And, AI can be stupid.

Memorial maxes out at 62,717 butt's in seats. Not counting suites, etc.

Announced attendance:
Sep 6 vs Texas Southern: 35,898
Sep 13 vs Minnesota: 38,556
Oct 4 vs Duke: 42,240
Oct 17 vs North Carolina: 33,401

Avg'ing 60% capacity.

When asked about averaging single seat ticket prices thru the ticket office, Grok say: "Low: $52, High: $91 for single seats (standard seating, excluding suites). Prices based on 2025 season ticket rates".

Using $71.50 as the avg ticket price as we continue down the garden path.

So far, unsold seats this season:
Total seats: 62,717 4 = 250,868.
Attendance: 35,898 + 38,556 + 42,240 + 33,401 = 150,095.
Unsold: 250,868 - 150,095 = 100,773.

Here's where the rubber hits the road:

$5.2M to $9.1M lost revenue from those empty seats so far this year.

Calculation:
100,773 unsold seats $52 low = $5,240,196.
100,773 unsold seats $91 high = $9,170,343.

On avg, with these numbers, Cal is is losing ~$1.79M per game from lost seat revenue so far this season.

Entire season $ losses with these avgs/numbers? Grok say: $7.8M-$13.65M

I leave y'all in your happy place to pick apart and challenge the numbers, and argue amongst yourselves. But you can't argue the fact that the stadium isn't being filled, and that in turn results in significant $ lost. And, we all know why.

The lord loves those that help themselves. Solve the problem, put a better product out.

Go Bears

I did this analysis a year ago and posit'd the same thing based on the results.
It's wild to me that "Econ expert" guys like Lyons don't know how to put together a simple economic PBA type analysis or recognize things like opportunity cost when making a decision on Wilmoe.

Dykes was fired because attendance dropped every year, I am convinced.

His record would have been fine if people actually wanted to watch that garbage football. Wilcox somehow drives attendance, he's safe. I don't understand why he is still here, unless Ron thinks we are $2m a year and a few systemic changes from him being a top coach.

Grok say "last sellout at Memorial was vs Nevada on Sept 1, 2012"

GrizzledBear said:

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Clickbait title only cause it amuses me. Spoiler: there is no #2...

Since I know how much y'all like to argue on here, here's one to chew on.

The following works under the premise that I think we can all agree on: the average bay area sports fans who is not already a Cal season ticket holder is not circling 2025 Cal games on the calendar as a "must attend event that I'm geeked about and can't wait for" and buying tickets.

The product on the field is mediocre at best. Coaching is the major suspect. Not many people are exchanging their dollars to "enjoy" this product on the field.

The results? Empty seats at home games. The result of the empty seats? Lost revenue. So, here we go, strap in.

This is all cocktail napkin math, I used my buddy Elon errrr Grok as a source. This is all spitballing, hand grenades and horseshoes - not perfect, but in the ballpark. And, AI can be stupid.

Memorial maxes out at 62,717 butt's in seats. Not counting suites, etc.

Announced attendance:
Sep 6 vs Texas Southern: 35,898
Sep 13 vs Minnesota: 38,556
Oct 4 vs Duke: 42,240
Oct 17 vs North Carolina: 33,401

Avg'ing 60% capacity.

When asked about averaging single seat ticket prices thru the ticket office, Grok say: "Low: $52, High: $91 for single seats (standard seating, excluding suites). Prices based on 2025 season ticket rates".

Using $71.50 as the avg ticket price as we continue down the garden path.

So far, unsold seats this season:
Total seats: 62,717 4 = 250,868.
Attendance: 35,898 + 38,556 + 42,240 + 33,401 = 150,095.
Unsold: 250,868 - 150,095 = 100,773.

Here's where the rubber hits the road:

$5.2M to $9.1M lost revenue from those empty seats so far this year.

Calculation:
100,773 unsold seats $52 low = $5,240,196.
100,773 unsold seats $91 high = $9,170,343.

On avg, with these numbers, Cal is is losing ~$1.79M per game from lost seat revenue so far this season.

Entire season $ losses with these avgs/numbers? Grok say: $7.8M-$13.65M

I leave y'all in your happy place to pick apart and challenge the numbers, and argue amongst yourselves. But you can't argue the fact that the stadium isn't being filled, and that in turn results in significant $ lost. And, we all know why.

The lord loves those that help themselves. Solve the problem, put a better product out.

Go Bears

---

Generally solid. I would say there is some marginal cost for operating CMS with a crowd of 60K vs. 35K (extra security, maintenance, etc.) so it probably is about 10% less net. And unlikely to turn aroiund in a year (scarcity) and the fact they are EZ tixs (for the most part) given confguration.

You know what?
The kids are gone;
This game has me f'ing depressed;
and i need to dust off my python skills

The analysis we're looking for is a fixed effects regression or more specifically a DID regression. I already have attendance data for the past 30 years, I just need revenue data and salary data and I will adjust for inflation and Bay Area metro cost of living and show the opportunity cost of retaining Wilmoe.

bRb

I'm a fair weather fan, gave up season tickets, close enough to walk. Went to Minn and Duke, thought about this game for a minute but why ruin a nice fall day

socaltownie said:

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GrizzledBear said:

---

Clickbait title only cause it amuses me. Spoiler: there is no #2...

Since I know how much y'all like to argue on here, here's one to chew on.

The following works under the premise that I think we can all agree on: the average bay area sports fans who is not already a Cal season ticket holder is not circling 2025 Cal games on the calendar as a "must attend event that I'm geeked about and can't wait for" and buying tickets.

The product on the field is mediocre at best. Coaching is the major suspect. Not many people are exchanging their dollars to "enjoy" this product on the field.

The results? Empty seats at home games. The result of the empty seats? Lost revenue. So, here we go, strap in.

This is all cocktail napkin math, I used my buddy Elon errrr Grok as a source. This is all spitballing, hand grenades and horseshoes - not perfect, but in the ballpark. And, AI can be stupid.

Memorial maxes out at 62,717 butt's in seats. Not counting suites, etc.

Announced attendance:
Sep 6 vs Texas Southern: 35,898
Sep 13 vs Minnesota: 38,556
Oct 4 vs Duke: 42,240
Oct 17 vs North Carolina: 33,401

Avg'ing 60% capacity.

When asked about averaging single seat ticket prices thru the ticket office, Grok say: "Low: $52, High: $91 for single seats (standard seating, excluding suites). Prices based on 2025 season ticket rates".

Using $71.50 as the avg ticket price as we continue down the garden path.

So far, unsold seats this season:
Total seats: 62,717 4 = 250,868.
Attendance: 35,898 + 38,556 + 42,240 + 33,401 = 150,095.
Unsold: 250,868 - 150,095 = 100,773.

Here's where the rubber hits the road:

$5.2M to $9.1M lost revenue from those empty seats so far this year.

Calculation:
100,773 unsold seats $52 low = $5,240,196.
100,773 unsold seats $91 high = $9,170,343.

On avg, with these numbers, Cal is is losing ~$1.79M per game from lost seat revenue so far this season.

Entire season $ losses with these avgs/numbers? Grok say: $7.8M-$13.65M

I leave y'all in your happy place to pick apart and challenge the numbers, and argue amongst yourselves. But you can't argue the fact that the stadium isn't being filled, and that in turn results in significant $ lost. And, we all know why.

The lord loves those that help themselves. Solve the problem, put a better product out.

Go Bears

---

Generally solid. I would say there is some marginal cost for operating CMS with a crowd of 60K vs. 35K (extra security, maintenance, etc.) so it probably is about 10% less net. And unlikely to turn aroiund in a year (scarcity) and the fact they are EZ tixs (for the most part) given confguration.

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concessions. theres your 10% offset

by that analysis above wilcox costs us $2M a game

Today's announced attendance: 30,893

$1.65M to $2.90M in lost revenue today

Unsold seats: 31,824.
31,824 x $52 = $1,654,848.
31,824 x $91 = $2,895,984.

GrizzledBear said:

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Today's announced attendance: 30,893

$1.65M to $2.90M in lost revenue today

Unsold seats: 31,824.
31,824 x $52 = $1,654,848.
31,824 x $91 = $2,895,984.

---

Everybody is *****ing about the buyout, a good team that gets 50,000+ in the stadium 6 times a year, that's another $12-$15 million a year being left on the table

Strykur said:

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GrizzledBear said:

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Today's announced attendance: 30,893

$1.65M to $2.90M in lost revenue today

Unsold seats: 31,824.
31,824 x $52 = $1,654,848.
31,824 x $91 = $2,895,984.

---

Everybody is *****ing about the buyout, a good team that gets 50,000+ in the stadium 6 times a year, that's another $12-$15 million a year being left on the table

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Not that I want to give an argument for not firing Wilcox, but this just isn't how it works. I get the logic, but there are a lot of confounding factors.

First of all, we aren't losing the difference between a sell out and Wilcox. We are losing the difference between the next coach and Wilcox. Cal has never in my lifetime sold out most games.

Second of all, attendance does not equal tickets sold. A lot of people, especially at the high end, view the tickets as a charity and don't necessarily go.

Third of all, even when Cal drew more than now, part of that was because they priced things more reasonably. If Cal lowered their prices, they'd put more butts in seats too, but by and large they are charging more than market rate.

Tickets for SMU go down to $37.

Cal offered a family ticket for 4 for $100 for Duke and Virginia. Prior to Tedford when Cal decided to soak the fans instead of get fans to the stadium, most of the North endzone was family tickets which were dirty cheap for 2 adults and three kids under 12, and they never cared about the age of the 3. (my family always bought family seats and had people up to their 30's walk in unquestioned as a "child".) That is a lot of how they sold those last seats.

A good number of tickets would be student tickets for dirt cheap.

To determine absolute max realistic amount, I would take the height of Tedford ticket sales, adjusted for inflation. That is $17M. So, theoretically probably absolute max of $9M more per year if you could recapture the Tedford magic.

However, that doesn't account for the fact that attendance has declined a ton all over the west coast since Tedford's time.

Also, the USC/UCLA game was always a huge draw both for Cal fans and visiting fans, and we don't have that anymore.

Most importantly, history indicates that the most likely outcome for Cal of a coaching change is most likely something similar to what we have. (which doesn't mean we shouldn't try).

I think if Cal made an additional $5M a year in ticket sales that would be a very good result.