I have a unique situation. I put a couple bets on the Bears to win 5.5+ games this season, and already won those. I am assuming I've lost the little bets to make it to the acc title game sniff sniff. But I do have one left if we win 8+ regular season games, and am planning to hedge to get max value. If we win our last two games, 8 total, it pays $500. If we lose either, it's worthless. So next week, I'll probably hedge by either taking the furd and the moneyline, or maybe gamble a bit at take the furd plus the points, and possible we win and not cover, and that's even better, heading into the final week. Anyhow, lots of math and considerations here ranging from letting it ride and losing, to hedging and ending up with even more than the $500. I think I can guarantee myself something like $250 just by taking furd and/or smu money lines but there are countless permutations and it's driving me a but nuts. Math chat gpt can help. lol

All of this is to say, I think we will be 7pt favorites and the furd moneyline will be +200 when it all comes out. Wondering what others think the line might be, and what you'd do in my situation. go bears!

Never bet on Furd, ever. It's not worth the hedge

step away

1-800-GAMBLER

The initial lines often are close to what Sagarin would predict and currently that is:

Cal by 2.3 points in Predictor on a neutral field, Stanford by 1.3 if home field advantage is taken into account.

In Strong Recent it is Cal by 6.0 on a neutral field and Cal by 2.2 if home field is taken into account.

Big Game at Stanford is essentially a neutral field and I would lean into the recent results so I think it may start low but move to Cal by 6.

However, we only beat them last year at CMS by 3 after two late 4th quarter TDs including Fernando Mendoza's "98 yards with my boys." Our three ACC wins this year are: BC by 4, UNC by 3 and Louisville by 3 in OT (tied in regulation). So maybe that will be reflected in the spread?

These are two defense first teams with poor offenses.

Cal is #104 in yards per play, #133 in rushing yards per play and #86 in scoring.

Stanford is #129 in yard per play, #135 in rushing yards per play and #128 in scoring.

On defense Cal is #61 in yards surrendered per play, #105 in rushing yards surrendered per play and #76 in scoring defense.

On defense Stanford is #112 in yards surrendered per play, #51 in rushing yards surrendered per play and are #98 in scoring defense.

Stanford has a good DL and stout run defense but bad secondary. Cal has a poor rushing attack.

Cal has a poor run defense but Stanford has a poor running attack. Still, we have made backups look like superstars.

So Cal should repeat the strategy against Louisville and just have Sagapolutele throw against their secondary and keep throwing. If we lure Stanford into a passing contest we can win going away. If we get a lead and then go conservative it will be close. So whether we beat the spread (especially if it is as high as 7 points) will depend on Wilcox pressing our advantage, which he tends not to do.

Still, NEVER bet on Stanford, It is bad juju. Just ride your Cal bet and hope we keep our foot on the gas and we win by 2 TDs or more.

Nice analysis. Only put some bets down this year because I thought we had a really good shot at 8+ and at 5:1 odds it seemed like a fun way to watch the season unfold. 5+ seemed impossible not to hit, and I looked at it as paying to replace the coach, if we couldn't even make it to a bowl. In that way, it was totally worth it.

Agree with the idea about never touching a stanfurd game, and really, Bear bets of any kind are usually just asking for trouble. Your analysis is great and suggest that it'll probably be a much closer spread than I was thinking. If so, probably makes sense to just have fun and ride it out. Also, I'll be in a plane during the game so can't even watch. Go Bears!

SMU is going to be a tough nut to crack, Jennings is a very good QB, but we get them at home, and they play Louisville the week before. They recently lost at Wake Forest, then went on to beat a top 10 Miami team. If they beat Lville they will be playing for a shot at the ACCCG, and perhaps the Playoffs.

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.. .. .. Still, NEVER bet on Stanford, It is bad juju. Just ride your Cal bet and hope we keep our foot on the gas and we win by 2 TDs or more.

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tnx calumnus. this over the hill fool enjoys your wise and informed essays, though to be honest a bit long in the tooth sometimes. hope you enjoy writing 'em too. anyways. well done, and thanks for all the fish
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/So_Long,_and_Thanks_for_All_the_Fish
signed, grounded bear

Cal88 said:

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SMU is going to be a tough nut to crack, Jennings is a very good QB, but we get them at home, and they play Louisville the week before. They recently lost at Wake Forest, then went on to beat a top 10 Miami team. If they beat Lville they will be playing for a shot at the ACCCG, and perhaps the Playoffs.

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Jennings had been gimpy, but not so much last week. If he's sound, we better spy him and even then he's a water bug. Better to make him run, though, since that's where the gimp is - wheels.

calumnus said:

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However, we only beat them last year at CMS by 3 after two late 4th quarter TDs including Fernando Mendoza's "98 yards with my boys."

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True, but we have a better QB this year

Econ141 said:

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calumnus said:

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However, we only beat them last year at CMS by 3 after two late 4th quarter TDs including Fernando Mendoza's "98 yards with my boys."

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True, but we have a better QB this year

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"100 yards with my boy" = 20 straight passes to DeJesus for the winning TD! ;-)