5 star, 4 star, and 3 star recruits in National Championship….hope for Cal?

2,393 Views | 13 Replies | Last: 3 mo ago by Cal88
bearister
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"Miami: They have five 5-star recruits and another 32 with 4-stars, led by starting QB Carson Beck, starting RB Mark Fletcher and All-American edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. Their roster which, it should be noted, would itself look like an underdog against the sport's biggest Blue Bloods is rounded out by 34 3-star recruits.

Indiana: What if I told you the No. 1 seed has zero 5-star recruits and just six 4-star recruits? Instead, this squad comprises mostly 3-stars,
with none more important than Heisman-winning QB Fernando Mendoza. Here's where I remind you that they are 15-0 with the nation's second-highest scoring offense (42.6) and second-lowest scoring defense (11.1).

Consider this: Indiana's lack of top-end recruits is virtually unprecedented. The last 20 national champions had at least two top-10 recruiting classes in the four years leading up to their title, per On3.

Indiana's last four recruiting classes? No. 53 (2025), No. 60 (2024), No. 59 (2023) and No. 29 (2022). Miami's, by comparison, were ranked 14th, 5th, 8th and 13th.

So, how have the Hoosiers done this? Having a Heisman winner at QB certainly helps, but you can't discount the importance of continuity and experience, which Indiana has in spades.

Their starters average a whopping 4.4 years of college experience.And, because just eight of them are first-year transfers, that means two-thirds have played together in Bloomington for at least the last two years. Plus, six of those starters followed head coach Curt Cignetti from James Madison, so the ties run even deeper.

Miami's starting lineup has roughly the same number of homegrown players as Indiana (9 vs. 8), but they've relied more heavily on the portal this season, with 12 first-year transfers. The end result: A squad that hasn't had as much time to jell."
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HearstMining
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Ah, yes. The 3-star recruit. One thing Cal has been good at for years is getting 3-star recruits! But the trick is turning those 3-stars into great players, and Cal has been terrible at that since Tedford's best years and it probably boils down to two reasons:

  • Getting the wrong 3-star recruits. The "stars" are really just a rough predictor of success generated by recruiting services based on . . . I really don't know what. I suspect really smart coaches have their own attributes that they look for in players as better predictors than "stars". Cal has selected way too many guys who plateaued at the mediocre level. This selection is complicated by the fact that Cal does have to compete with Washington, UCLA, etc. for even the 3-star guys.
  • Developing those 3-star recruits. Cal has clearly underachieved here and it's mostly on the coaching staff. How many players just didn't improve during their years at Cal, never even getting into the two-deep rotation, yet Cal (Wilcox) kept some of those coaches around for years.
So, I don't know what Cignetti's recipe is, but he apparently does know how to make a gourmet meal out of 3-star hamburger - he (and his staff) is/are probably good at both of the above. I guess we'll see if Tosh can do the same.
swan
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HearstMining said:

Ah, yes. The 3-star recruit. One thing Cal has been good at for years is getting 3-star recruits! But the
So, I don't know what Cignetti's recipe is, but he apparently does know how to make a gourmet meal out of 3-star hamburger - he (and his staff) is/are probably good at both of the above. I guess we'll see if Tosh can do the same.


I found this article very informative regarding Cignetti's ability to transform the Indiana roster and football fortunes.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/47542203/college-football-playoff-indiana-hoosiers-curt-cignetti-scouting-recruiting







YamhillBear
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I believe that the Cignetti example is an outlier, due to him obviously having sold his soul to the devil in exchange for supernatural gridiron success.
Rushinbear
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swan said:

HearstMining said:

Ah, yes. The 3-star recruit. One thing Cal has been good at for years is getting 3-star recruits! But the
So, I don't know what Cignetti's recipe is, but he apparently does know how to make a gourmet meal out of 3-star hamburger - he (and his staff) is/are probably good at both of the above. I guess we'll see if Tosh can do the same.


I found this article very informative regarding Cignetti's ability to transform the Indiana roster and football fortunes.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/47542203/college-football-playoff-indiana-hoosiers-curt-cignetti-scouting-recruiting









The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. That's what I'm reading there.

We have beaten top ten teams for players, but usually, they don't pan out. Maybe there's a reason that we get them - in the end, those top teams pass on players, "Let Cal have him." How you make that operational, I don't know. I just know that many of those types that we get don't pan out.

Those quirky individual traits? For every pigeon toed player who shines, there's a duck-footed one who does, too. Although, a top fb player has to have quick twitch muscles, no matter the position. And, some positions need quick-wittedness more than others.
upsetof86
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I read the article as certainly recruiting matters but not in the way we "commonly' know it to matter. It matters by physical traits that are not included at the combine, it matters by personality traits that are unique to the team culture defined by the coach, and selection is uniformly about accountability from the duck feet up, ie player production all the way up to the head coach foremost/as much as any other assistant. I think hidden in this approach is the math that combined production of all these proven producers aids a culture of trust (I don't drift off my lane/assignment to hedge yours) and it collectively adds as a statistical advantage synergistically. With a roster of production and potential you not only have a lot of unknowns across your lineup so every snap there's a lot of incremental disjointedness. In a game where perfectly coordinated execution every snap is the ideal Cignettis requirements make perfect sense.
PAC-10-BEAR
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Cal fans turned on Tedford after he couldn't maintain the same level of success. Let's see what happens to Cignetti after Mendoza and the seniors leave and when his coordinators get poached.
Strykur
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PAC-10-BEAR said:

Cal fans turned on Tedford after he couldn't maintain the same level of success. Let's see what happens to Cignetti after Mendoza and the seniors leave and when his coordinators get poached.

After 5-0 in 2007 Tedford had a losing record the rest of the way, Cignetti will leave way before he has a bottoming out like that.
Cal88
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PAC-10-BEAR said:

Cal fans turned on Tedford after he couldn't maintain the same level of success. Let's see what happens to Cignetti after Mendoza and the seniors leave and when his coordinators get poached.


IU got TCU's QB Josh Hoover, who's pretty decent. Mendoza is a very good QB, but he doesn't come close to winning out or getting the Heisman at nearly any other program.
PAC-10-BEAR
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Cal88 said:

PAC-10-BEAR said:

Cal fans turned on Tedford after he couldn't maintain the same level of success. Let's see what happens to Cignetti after Mendoza and the seniors leave and when his coordinators get poached.

IU got TCU's QB Josh Hoover, who's pretty decent. Mendoza is a very good QB, but he doesn't come close to winning out or getting the Heisman at nearly any other program.

The Heisman trophy typically goes to the QB on the best team. It helps if there's pre-season hype, in which case, there was none for Mendoza. It's hard to say how many QBs other than Mendoza could have led Indiana to an undefeated season. That late TD throw in the end zone to snatch a victory over Penn St. was clutch.

Indiana is doing well in the portal, I suspect they will do well next season too.
WildBear
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Cignetti is obviously an exceptionally great coach, but a large part of his success is getting 3 star recruits who are now 23 years old. He couldn't do this with 18-20 year olds.
PAC-10-BEAR
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This is the old BYU trick.
BearlyCareAnymore
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Cal88 said:

PAC-10-BEAR said:

Cal fans turned on Tedford after he couldn't maintain the same level of success. Let's see what happens to Cignetti after Mendoza and the seniors leave and when his coordinators get poached.


IU got TCU's QB Josh Hoover, who's pretty decent. Mendoza is a very good QB, but he doesn't come close to winning out or getting the Heisman at nearly any other program.

And basically virtually no other QB Indiana could have had would have won the Heisman and it is unlikely Indiana is undefeated right now without Mendoza. Julian Sayin, Dante Moore, and Ty Simpson are all extremely talented QB's with better talent around them than Mendoza. They didn't win the Heisman.

Would Mendoza be where he is on any of those teams. I don't know. Probably not. But that comes down to circumstances and a symbiotic relationship between team and QB. Everything has to go perfectly for a guy to win the Heisman.

Hell, if Indiana blows the doors off of Penn State instead of needing a huge drive and a massively clutch pass and catch to win, Mendoza might not have won the Heisman. That drive pretty much cemented the award for him and at that point was only going to possibly be taken away from him by Sayin if OSU beat Indiana.
Cal88
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BearlyCareAnymore said:

Cal88 said:

PAC-10-BEAR said:

Cal fans turned on Tedford after he couldn't maintain the same level of success. Let's see what happens to Cignetti after Mendoza and the seniors leave and when his coordinators get poached.


IU got TCU's QB Josh Hoover, who's pretty decent. Mendoza is a very good QB, but he doesn't come close to winning out or getting the Heisman at nearly any other program.

And basically virtually no other QB Indiana could have had would have won the Heisman and it is unlikely Indiana is undefeated right now without Mendoza. Julian Sayin, Dante Moore, and Ty Simpson are all extremely talented QB's with better talent around them than Mendoza. They didn't win the Heisman.

Would Mendoza be where he is on any of those teams. I don't know. Probably not. But that comes down to circumstances and a symbiotic relationship between team and QB. Everything has to go perfectly for a guy to win the Heisman.

Hell, if Indiana blows the doors off of Penn State instead of needing a huge drive and a massively clutch pass and catch to win, Mendoza might not have won the Heisman. That drive pretty much cemented the award for him and at that point was only going to possibly be taken away from him by Sayin if OSU beat Indiana.


I disagree about the talent level around Mendoza compared to the other teams. IU crushed Oregon in every phase of the game, dominating the trenches on both sides of the ball, Mendoza had a solid pocket, good targets, and a strong running game, 178yds with a 4.9ypc average. IU's players might have been lower-rated recruits, but they are better players than those of Oregon or OSU. You can't go 15-0 and be a TD favorite on the road in the NCG without having the top roster in college football.
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