Unofficial predict-KA21's-Combine-40-time thread

3,911 Views | 40 Replies | Last: 12 yr ago by Big C
Big C
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This sort of ties in with another thread on the board, in which there are some inciteful posts...

Recently on KNBR, Tom Tolbert and Ray Ratto were dissing the NFL Combine and, especially, those who find it interesting. While no doubt there are some "sports nerds" who go way overboard with this, the Combine is SUPER-important for slotting who's going to go where in the draft. Pre-combine predictitions are just pure speculation, but afterwards, things really solidify.

I find the case of Keenan Allen to be especially interesting, because, though I watched him for three seasons, I really don't have a feel for how fast he is. He is definitely an elite-level athlete. I would say that, after watching him return punts, his biggest strenth is his athletetic fluidity for a guy that size. After that, his hands are good and just his sheer size and strength itself.

His drawbacks might be that he has had a tendency to get injured and also that his production, in terms of TD receptions (especially in important games) never seemed to quite measure up to his perceived ability level (certainly a mitigating factor was the OL and the QB in his offense).

And then there's his speed (or lack thereof?). It's gotta be somewhere between 4.4 and 4.6, right? But where, exactly? .2 of a second is a huge difference, in NFL draft terms!

On the minus side, I don't really remember him getting great separation, or running away from defenders. On the plus side, he's certainly been training for this and I've noticed that Cal players have had some surprisingly fast times, which perhaps indicates to me that the players have been working with trainers that have been teaching them how to maximize their 40 times.

Anyway, I'll start with the first prediction: 4.50

Good luck to Keenan and Go Bears!
Cal Panda Bear
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4.55
hanky1
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4.49

If Marvin Jones can run sub -4.5 than Keenan can.
Big C
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hanky1;842083767 said:

4.49

If Marvin Jones can run sub -4.5 than Keenan can.


Well played. Now, if Cal Panda Bear had only predicted 4.51, you two would have had me caught between a rock and a hard place.
Unit2Sucks
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I'm going with 4.44. As long as he doesn't run out of deer antler velvet, he should be good to go. As I mentioned in the other thread, I think his speed is comparable to Marvin (4.46 at last year's combine) and KA is fiercely competitive. The only competition he has right now is the 40-yard dash. I also have always suspected that KA didn't really focus on speed work, but that is entirely conjecture.

I think his pre-combine training will be 100% focused on explosiveness and speed. He already has more strength than he needs to play the position so I would think he would sacrifice some of that to improve his speed. Look for him to lose a few lbs and gain a few ticks on his speed numbers. I think he'll do well in the 3 cone drill for a tall guy as well - Keenan has great lateral agility that will show up at the combine.
SanJuanBear
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4.62
92GoBears92
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4.65
jimbo168
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Based on the number of times Keenan Allen got caught from behind, I don't think he is that fast at all. He is great at making cuts, but I'm not sure he has good straight-line speed. What makes you think he's faster than Marvin Jones? I would guess close to 4.6.
beelzebear
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He'll run a 4.5 or under because it'll be worth a few million and he has time to prep.
Unit2Sucks
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jimbo168;842083781 said:

Based on the number of times Keenan Allen got caught from behind, I don't think he is that fast at all. He is great at making cuts, but I'm not sure he has good straight-line speed. What makes you think he's faster than Marvin Jones? I would guess close to 4.6.


At top speed I think MJ is a little bit faster. Over 40 yards I don't think there is a significant difference, but I would expect Keenan to focus all of his time/energy on the 40. The only way Keenan ends up in the 4.6s is if he is injured and there's no way he runs injured.
StillNoStanfurdium
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4.46 to be the same as Marvin.
NYCGOBEARS
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stillnostanfurdium;842083791 said:

4.46 to be the same as marvin.

4.47
NVGolfingBear
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4.54

and it becomes a problem for Keenan, GMs, ...
Davidson
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4.53
93Bear
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4.61
Big C
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92GoBears92;842083776 said:

4.65


If this turns out to be true, he drops out of the first round (and probably out of the second).

As a comparison, anybody know Michael Crabtree's 40 time from the Combine? Lemme guess, he didn't run and waited for his "pro day"...
GMP
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jimbo168;842083781 said:

Based on the number of times Keenan Allen got caught from behind, I don't think he is that fast at all. He is great at making cuts, but I'm not sure he has good straight-line speed. What makes you think he's faster than Marvin Jones? I would guess close to 4.6.


It happened, like, twice.
Holmoephobic
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grandmastapoop;842083820 said:

It happened, like, twice.


This. And anyone basing 40 times off of on-field results is a fool. These guys know that millions of dollars are on the line and they will be focusing virtually all of their training on this one event.
Unit2Sucks
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Big C_Cal;842083818 said:

If this turns out to be true, he drops out of the first round (and probably out of the second).

As a comparison, anybody know Michael Crabtree's 40 time from the Combine? Lemme guess, he didn't run and waited for his "pro day"...


Crabtree was injured and never ran - not even at his pro day. Crabtree is similar to Keenan in that he's athletic after the catch, fairly physical but not a beast like Anquan Boldin, and doesn't have the speed to take the top off the defense. That said, Crab has enough juice to get you 40 or 50 yards a handful of times a season. I suspect we'll see the same from Keenan.
jimbo168
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Holmoephobic;842083824 said:

This. And anyone basing 40 times off of on-field results is a fool. These guys know that millions of dollars are on the line and they will be focusing virtually all of their training on this one event.


How would you guess 40 yard times if not based on what you see on the field? I agree that they will devote a lot of time on this event but it's not that easy to improve the 40 yard time, otherwise every WR would be in the 4.4s.
mbBear
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4.45
beelzebear
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What is KA21's PR at the 40?
OskiMD
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4.60+

It'll take something of a minor miracle for KA to get under 4.5.
BlueAndGold
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4.52
mechaniCAL
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4.47
BerkeleyChris
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4.56
heartofthebear
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I don't see why we have to speculate.
CBS sports has him listed at 4.53.
link

Because I know how hard he works, maybe he brings it down some to 4.51

Keep in mind that at 4.53 he is no faster than 2 of the top 25 draftable WRs (See same link above). If he cuts it to 4.51, he surpasses 8 of those.
Big C
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heartofthebear;842083959 said:

I don't see why we have to speculate.
CBS sports has him listed at 4.53.
link

Because I know how hard he works, maybe he brings it down some to 4.51

Keep in mind that at 4.53 he is no faster than 2 of the top 25 draftable WRs (See same link above). If he cuts it to 4.51, he surpasses 8 of those.


I'm wondering where CBS Sports gets this info, as the Cal team under JT didn't run 40s for time (or, at least, not publicly). Until the standardized measuring that is the NFL Combine, those posted times come from... where? And under what conditions? And how are they timed?
pnaidu
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I'm going to say 4.46 He is a big guy, but his long strides will help him out.
beeasyed
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jimbo168;842083831 said:

How would you guess 40 yard times if not based on what you see on the field? I agree that they will devote a lot of time on this event but it's not that easy to improve the 40 yard time, otherwise every WR would be in the 4.4s.


and how would you have guessed Michael Calvin running a 4.35 on pro day just looking at him on the field?
Big C
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Unit2Sucks;842083827 said:

Crabtree was injured and never ran - not even at his pro day. Crabtree is similar to Keenan in that he's athletic after the catch, fairly physical but not a beast like Anquan Boldin, and doesn't have the speed to take the top off the defense. That said, Crab has enough juice to get you 40 or 50 yards a handful of times a season. I suspect we'll see the same from Keenan.


Crabtree IS similar to Keenan in a lot of ways. However, and I don't have his college stats in front of me so this is just from memory, I seem to remember Crabtree, in his last college season, as being far more productive on the field, in terms of receiving TDs and big plays in big games.
MilleniaBear
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+1....he never once ran away from a db....aka stretching the field. Damien Hughes would beat him.
StillNoStanfurdium
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Big C_Cal;842084036 said:

Crabtree IS similar to Keenan in a lot of ways. However, and I don't have his college stats in front of me so this is just from memory, I seem to remember Crabtree, in his last college season, as being far more productive on the field, in terms of receiving TDs and big plays in big games.

You'd be right as in his last season Crabtree had more receptions, yards, and TDs than Keenan did. Keenan does have a better average YPC though.

And of course, Keenan didn't play in several games and had Maynard throwing to him in an offense that was for the most part quite tepid compared to Texas Tech in 2008.

Now if you look at 2011 for Keenan and compare that to 2008, he beats Crabtree statistically except for TDs where he loses by a lot. And if you compare 2011 (Allen's best season) and 2007 which was Crabtree's best season then Crabtree wins handily by the numbers.

Makes sense that their second to last seasons were their bests, though. After the breakout year they would see increased gameplanning and defensive coverage as they become a known commodity.
tommie317
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4.58
biely medved
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Cal Panda Bear;842083765 said:

4.55


Ditto
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