Hail2Calif;842116120 said:
+1
Considering how many times the experts are wrong about QB's ON DRAFT DAY vs. real production in the NFL, it's a little early to assume Barkley's (or anyone's) career will end up going nowhere.
Today, the 'new breed of QB' that is causing so much buzz (as if the next Manning or Brady wouldn't make it in today's NFL) is exemplified by RGIII, Kaepernick and Wilson - with only RGIII going in the 1st round.
On the more conventional QB side, Dalton was drafted after Newton, Locker, Gabbert and Ponder (right before Kaepernick). If teams could 're-draft' 2011 - both Kaepernick and Dalton would have gone much higher.
Whether Barkley sneaks into the 1st round, goes in the 2nd, or falls to the 3rd does not determine whether he will be a success in the NFL.
You make it seem like drafting a QB is a crap shoot. If anything, the one position the NFL most accurately drafts for is the QB position. It does matter where you are drafted.
84% of all of the current starting QBs in the NFL were drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds...including 69% were drafted in the 1st round. Here is the distribution:
1st round: 22 players
2nd round: 5 players
3rd round: 2 players (Russell Wilson, Matt Schaub)
4th round: 0 players
5th round: 0 players
6th round: 1 player (Tom Brady)
7th round: 1 player (Matt Flynn)
Undrafted: 1 player (Tony Romo)
In other words, the
median QB is a first rounder. There is no other position that can make that claim.
If Barkley drops to the 3rd round, it doesn't mean he won't have a successful NFL career, but his odds drop significantly.