March Madness 25 Thread

6,946 Views | 91 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by barsad
barsad
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Two unrelated questions.
I've always wondered why some conference tournaments end on Saturday (ACC) and some end on Sunday. It doesn't seem to be prestige or any other sorting of which conferences choose to wait until hours before the Selection Committee announces. Any theories?
Second, how long will it take for Cal to Dance again? Next year, 2027, or "try next decade?"
barsad
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Anyone else in the Bay Area going to the Chase Center for the regional finals games? Can't wait, hope we get a St. Mary's or maybe Duke.
oskidunker
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barsad said:

Two unrelated questions.
I've always wondered why some conference tournaments end on Saturday (ACC) and some end on Sunday. It doesn't seem to be prestige or any other sorting of which conferences choose to wait until hours before the Selection Committee announces. Any theories?
Second, how long will it take for Cal to Dance again? Next year, 2027, or "try next decade?"



Answer: This year in LasVegas. The NewCrown tournament. You can dance at a lower tiurnament.
Bring back It’s It’s to Haas Pavillion!
HKBear97!
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barsad said:

Two unrelated questions.
I've always wondered why some conference tournaments end on Saturday (ACC) and some end on Sunday. It doesn't seem to be prestige or any other sorting of which conferences choose to wait until hours before the Selection Committee announces. Any theories?
Second, how long will it take for Cal to Dance again? Next year, 2027, or "try next decade?"

Good question, was wondering that myself. Tradition perhaps?

As for Cal, let's see, need a minimum of 20 wins to even be considered for the dance. At Madsen's current rate that would mean 15 wins in 2026, 16 in 2027.....20 in 2031, so my guess is next decade!

Another question, exactly how many bids will the SEC get and then how well do we think they will actually do in the tournament?
Addicted-to-TopDog
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Might take longer than that. Furd has 20 wins and is well outside the bubble.
barsad
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HKBear97! said:

barsad said:

Two unrelated questions.
I've always wondered why some conference tournaments end on Saturday (ACC) and some end on Sunday. It doesn't seem to be prestige or any other sorting of which conferences choose to wait until hours before the Selection Committee announces. Any theories?
Second, how long will it take for Cal to Dance again? Next year, 2027, or "try next decade?"

Good question, was wondering that myself. Tradition perhaps?

As for Cal, let's see, need a minimum of 20 wins to even be considered for the dance. At Madsen's current rate that would mean 15 wins in 2026, 16 in 2027.....20 in 2031, so my guess is next decade!

Another question, exactly how many bids will the SEC get and then how well do we think they will actually do in the tournament?

The experts say 14!!
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/44258617/greg-sankey-expects-14-ncaa-tournament-bids-unicorn-sec
But if Texas only has 19 wins I think they should join Cal in the New Snooze or New Crown, whatever it is.
Either way it's going to be a record number, so much talent concentrated in one place, I don't like it for the health of the game.
barsad
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I like a rosier picture of 18 wins next year, 21 the next and we get a bid. But 21 in the ACC is not so easy, only 6 ACC teams have that or more.
barsad
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Current automatic bids….
ACC: Duke
Atlantic 10: VCU
American: Memphis
America East: Bryant
ASUN: Lipscomb
Big East: St. John's
Big 12: Houston
Big Ten: Michigan
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: High Point
Big West: UCSD
CAA: UNC Wilmington
Conference USA: Liberty
Horizon League: Robert Morris
Ivy: Yale
MEAC: Norfolk St.
Missouri Valley: Drake
MAC: Akron
MAAC: Mount St. Mary's
Mountain West: Colorado St.
Northeast: St. Francis
Ohio Valley: Southern Illinois-Edwardsville
Patriot League: American
SEC: Florida
Southern: Wofford
Southland: McNeese State
Summit League: Omaha
Sun Belt: Troy
SWAC: Alabama St.
WAC: Grand Canyon
West Coast: Gonzaga
oskidunker
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barsad said:

Current automatic bids….
America East: Bryant
ASUN: Lipscomb
Big 12: Houston
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: High Point
CAA: UNC Wilmington
Horizon League: Robert Morris
MEAC: Norfolk St.
Missouri Valley: Drake
Mountain West: Colorado St.
Northeast: St. Francis
Ohio Valley: Southern Illinois-Edwardsville
Patriot League: American
Southern: Wofford
Southland: McNeese State
Summit League: Omaha
Sun Belt: Troy
West Coast: Gonzaga


We need better players. Hopefully we get some and the good ones we have stay.
Bring back It’s It’s to Haas Pavillion!
Addicted-to-TopDog
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Stojo and Wilkinson will be looking for $1M each, maybe more once all the big boys come calling.
Johnfox
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Not happening this year with the house settlement. People ain't wasting 1 million bucks on a player like stoj or wilkinson. 3 million cap for all teams
barsad
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Johnfox said:

Not happening this year with the house settlement. People ain't wasting 1 million bucks on a player like stoj or wilkinson. 3 million cap for all teams

Agree, here's a good story in SI about how the portal dynamics will be changed by the caps.
https://www.si.com/fannation/name-image-likeness/nil-news/2025-most-important-college-basketball-transfer-portal-yet

Pitino has said that he will no longer recruit high schoolers, and it makes a lot of sense…. experience is needed to win every year, four-year development is a thing of the past. We could learn something from St. John's.

Then you hear about football QBs who are getting $3 mil deals, the same as the TOTAL for a basketball team.
https://athlonsports.com/college/oklahoma-sooners/report-reveals-massive-3-million-nil-deal-elite-football-qb-john-mateer

Makes you understand how much more football really matters over hoops in Div 1.
BearSD
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barsad said:

Johnfox said:

Not happening this year with the house settlement. People ain't wasting 1 million bucks on a player like stoj or wilkinson. 3 million cap for all teams

Agree, here's a good story in SI about how the portal dynamics will be changed by the caps.
https://www.si.com/fannation/name-image-likeness/nil-news/2025-most-important-college-basketball-transfer-portal-yet

Pitino has said that he will no longer recruit high schoolers, and it makes a lot of sense…. experience is needed to win every year, four-year development is a thing of the past. We could learn something from St. John's.
Two important things, one mentioned in that article and one not mentioned:

As the article notes, Kansas State and Washington both spent big on basketball transfers, expecting the highly paid players to be great. Both teams failed to perform up to expectations this year because those players were just solid rather than great. St. John's, in contrast, got much more from their transfers relative to their boosters' NIL payments.

One thing the article doesn't mention about the new "cap" on direct university payments to players is that "power conference" football teams will spend the vast majority of that money on football players, but schools like St. John's that don't have a football team will be free to make hoops their top financial priority. And, that's just the direct payment money; players can also continue to get outside NIL.
RedlessWardrobe
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oskidunker said:

barsad said:

Current automatic bids….
America East: Bryant
ASUN: Lipscomb
Big 12: Houston
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: High Point
CAA: UNC Wilmington
Horizon League: Robert Morris
MEAC: Norfolk St.
Missouri Valley: Drake
Mountain West: Colorado St.
Northeast: St. Francis
Ohio Valley: Southern Illinois-Edwardsville
Patriot League: American
Southern: Wofford
Southland: McNeese State
Summit League: Omaha
Sun Belt: Troy
West Coast: Gonzaga


We need better players. Hopefully we get some and the good ones we have stay.

Very insightful. I was initially confused about how we'd get better moving forward. Now I have it all figured out.
barsad
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UAB could be a bid stealer…. Lunardi just said Texas shouldn't be in, but the SEC is still a juggernaut (was Cal ever courted by them?)
BearSD
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barsad said:

UAB could be a bid stealer…


Hot take: It's BS for the committee to basically encourage this by not giving the "already in" team enough incentive to beat the potential "bid thief". Memphis' NCAA tournament seeding won't drop if they lose to UAB.

The committee ought to punish teams for losing in conference tournaments as much as teams get rewarded for winning in conference tournaments. If Memphis knew that losing today would drop them three seed lines in the bracket, maybe they wouldn't let UAB keep this game close.
barsad
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Memphis ahead at the moment… I think every team wants the conference trophy no matter what, if you're going to slack based on bracket seeds you have bigger problems. UAB is a good team, better than their 11 losses. These upsets are what I live for in college basketball, I'm ready for more during the Madness!
mbBear
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barsad said:

Two unrelated questions.
I've always wondered why some conference tournaments end on Saturday (ACC) and some end on Sunday. It doesn't seem to be prestige or any other sorting of which conferences choose to wait until hours before the Selection Committee announces. Any theories?
Second, how long will it take for Cal to Dance again? Next year, 2027, or "try next decade?"



This is coordinated with TV rights holders.
sycasey
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Pretty shocked that UNC got in after Louisville got stuck with an 8 seed! They still love the brand names.
oskidunker
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Anyone taking ucla?
Bring back It’s It’s to Haas Pavillion!
sycasey
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mbBear said:

barsad said:

Two unrelated questions.
I've always wondered why some conference tournaments end on Saturday (ACC) and some end on Sunday. It doesn't seem to be prestige or any other sorting of which conferences choose to wait until hours before the Selection Committee announces. Any theories?
Second, how long will it take for Cal to Dance again? Next year, 2027, or "try next decade?"



This is coordinated with TV rights holders.

I'd also bet that the Saturday night ESPN time slot the ACC gets is actually really good for ratings.
6956bear
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Johnfox said:

Not happening this year with the house settlement. People ain't wasting 1 million bucks on a player like stoj or wilkinson. 3 million cap for all teams
Actually the only cap is on revenue given directly by the University. It should be between $3M and $4M. But outside collectives can still give. The House settlement is attempting to set limits on what each player can receive by forcing the players and donors to provide info on any payment above $600 that come from outside the University. Good luck with that. The NCAA will get sued into oblivion by players and players agents.

Teams will be spending large in the portal.
Big C
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High Point? Bryant?? Lipscomb??? I've usually at least heard of these Cinderella-type teams before...

I think it would be really fun if Lipscomb went all the way! Not putting $$$ on it though.
Addicted-to-TopDog
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You don't think seeding is enough incentive to win? On top of that, you don't know you're in until it's official. Lunardi never gets every pick right. As it turns out, there were zero bids "stolen" today.
barsad
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sycasey said:

Pretty shocked that UNC got in after Louisville got stuck with an 8 seed! They still love the brand names.

UNC was a shocker (1-12 in Quad 1 games!), but so was Texas with 19 wins.
Then Stanford, USF and Santa Clara gets the NIT, and San Jose St. is in the NIT with only 15 wins? I guess because it's a host institution? Not sure.
Cal is the only Bay Area school without a dance partner.

Just saw that even Crown said "no thanks." Or maybe we did!
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2025/03/17/college-basketball-crown-schedule-bracket-teams-what-to-know/82490071007/

College Basketball Crown 2025 teams

Teams listed in alphabetical order
Arizona State
Boise State
Butler
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Colorado
DePaul
Georgetown
George Washington
Nebraska
Oregon State
Southern California
Tulane
Utah
Villanova
Washington State
sycasey
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barsad said:

sycasey said:

Pretty shocked that UNC got in after Louisville got stuck with an 8 seed! They still love the brand names.

UNC was a shocker (1-12 in Quad 1 games!), but so was Texas with 19 wins.
Then Stanford and Santa Clara gets the NIT, and San Jose St. is in the NIT with only 15 wins? I guess because it's a host institution? Not sure.
But Cal and USF are the only two Bay Area schools without a dance partner.

I've looked into it and it seems like UNC had the best advanced metrics/computer ratings were the best of the bubble teams. They had a bad record in Quad 1 because they only played teams at the top top of that quad. So I suppose that is defensible.

West Virginia is the team that almost everyone had getting in and got snubbed. In fact, they aren't in any postseason tournament! I assume they just turned down the NIT or CBC bids?
BearSD
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sycasey said:

barsad said:

sycasey said:

Pretty shocked that UNC got in after Louisville got stuck with an 8 seed! They still love the brand names.

UNC was a shocker (1-12 in Quad 1 games!), but so was Texas with 19 wins.
Then Stanford and Santa Clara gets the NIT, and San Jose St. is in the NIT with only 15 wins? I guess because it's a host institution? Not sure.
But Cal and USF are the only two Bay Area schools without a dance partner.

I've looked into it and it seems like UNC had the best advanced metrics/computer ratings were the best of the bubble teams. They had a bad record in Quad 1 because they only played teams at the top top of that quad. So I suppose that is defensible.

West Virginia is the team that almost everyone had getting in and got snubbed. In fact, they aren't in any postseason tournament! I assume they just turned down the NIT or CBC bids?
ESPN and the rest of the media's exaggerated outrage machine are wrong about West Virginia, Indiana, Boise, etc. Their fallacy is that if Texas and UNC were not truly deserving, then someone else must deserve their places. A more realistic way of looking at it is that the bubble is full of teams that have, at best, a very weak argument for deserving a spot, and the committee has to pick two or three out of the not-really-deserving pile of teams.
sycasey
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BearSD said:

sycasey said:

barsad said:

sycasey said:

Pretty shocked that UNC got in after Louisville got stuck with an 8 seed! They still love the brand names.

UNC was a shocker (1-12 in Quad 1 games!), but so was Texas with 19 wins.
Then Stanford and Santa Clara gets the NIT, and San Jose St. is in the NIT with only 15 wins? I guess because it's a host institution? Not sure.
But Cal and USF are the only two Bay Area schools without a dance partner.

I've looked into it and it seems like UNC had the best advanced metrics/computer ratings were the best of the bubble teams. They had a bad record in Quad 1 because they only played teams at the top top of that quad. So I suppose that is defensible.

West Virginia is the team that almost everyone had getting in and got snubbed. In fact, they aren't in any postseason tournament! I assume they just turned down the NIT or CBC bids?
ESPN and the rest of the media's exaggerated outrage machine are wrong about West Virginia, Indiana, Boise, etc. Their fallacy is that if Texas and UNC were not truly deserving, then someone else must deserve their places. A more realistic way of looking at it is that the bubble is full of teams that have, at best, a very weak argument for deserving a spot, and the committee has to pick two or three out of the not-really-deserving pile of teams.

Sure, but still you can argue about who is best or most deserving of that group. Having looked deeper into it, I can't necessarily say UNC is a bad selection, as the computer metrics loved them (again, as compared to the others on the bubble).
BearSD
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sycasey said:

BearSD said:

sycasey said:

barsad said:

sycasey said:

Pretty shocked that UNC got in after Louisville got stuck with an 8 seed! They still love the brand names.

UNC was a shocker (1-12 in Quad 1 games!), but so was Texas with 19 wins.
Then Stanford and Santa Clara gets the NIT, and San Jose St. is in the NIT with only 15 wins? I guess because it's a host institution? Not sure.
But Cal and USF are the only two Bay Area schools without a dance partner.

I've looked into it and it seems like UNC had the best advanced metrics/computer ratings were the best of the bubble teams. They had a bad record in Quad 1 because they only played teams at the top top of that quad. So I suppose that is defensible.

West Virginia is the team that almost everyone had getting in and got snubbed. In fact, they aren't in any postseason tournament! I assume they just turned down the NIT or CBC bids?
ESPN and the rest of the media's exaggerated outrage machine are wrong about West Virginia, Indiana, Boise, etc. Their fallacy is that if Texas and UNC were not truly deserving, then someone else must deserve their places. A more realistic way of looking at it is that the bubble is full of teams that have, at best, a very weak argument for deserving a spot, and the committee has to pick two or three out of the not-really-deserving pile of teams.

Sure, but still you can argue about who is best or most deserving of that group. Having looked deeper into it, I can't necessarily say UNC is a bad selection, as the computer metrics loved them (again, as compared to the others on the bubble).
We can argue, but no one got "robbed". If my neighbor wins the lottery and I don't, I didn't get robbed just because he got something he didn't earn and I didn't get something I didn't earn.
OdontoBear66
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Addicted-to-TopDog said:

Stojo and Wilkinson will be looking for $1M each, maybe more once all the big boys come calling.
You know this how? Like with sarcasm, we need some means of identifying speculation.
sycasey
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BearSD said:

sycasey said:

BearSD said:

sycasey said:

barsad said:

sycasey said:

Pretty shocked that UNC got in after Louisville got stuck with an 8 seed! They still love the brand names.

UNC was a shocker (1-12 in Quad 1 games!), but so was Texas with 19 wins.
Then Stanford and Santa Clara gets the NIT, and San Jose St. is in the NIT with only 15 wins? I guess because it's a host institution? Not sure.
But Cal and USF are the only two Bay Area schools without a dance partner.

I've looked into it and it seems like UNC had the best advanced metrics/computer ratings were the best of the bubble teams. They had a bad record in Quad 1 because they only played teams at the top top of that quad. So I suppose that is defensible.

West Virginia is the team that almost everyone had getting in and got snubbed. In fact, they aren't in any postseason tournament! I assume they just turned down the NIT or CBC bids?
ESPN and the rest of the media's exaggerated outrage machine are wrong about West Virginia, Indiana, Boise, etc. Their fallacy is that if Texas and UNC were not truly deserving, then someone else must deserve their places. A more realistic way of looking at it is that the bubble is full of teams that have, at best, a very weak argument for deserving a spot, and the committee has to pick two or three out of the not-really-deserving pile of teams.

Sure, but still you can argue about who is best or most deserving of that group. Having looked deeper into it, I can't necessarily say UNC is a bad selection, as the computer metrics loved them (again, as compared to the others on the bubble).
We can argue, but no one got "robbed". If my neighbor wins the lottery and I don't, I didn't get robbed just because he got something he didn't earn and I didn't get something I didn't earn.
Or you could do this!



(Maybe they should have been picked, but they also only won 19 games and got upset in their first Big 12 Tournament game by cellar-dweller Colorado, so . . .)
calumnus
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barsad said:

sycasey said:

Pretty shocked that UNC got in after Louisville got stuck with an 8 seed! They still love the brand names.

UNC was a shocker (1-12 in Quad 1 games!), but so was Texas with 19 wins.
Then Stanford, USF and Santa Clara gets the NIT, and San Jose St. is in the NIT with only 15 wins? I guess because it's a host institution? Not sure.
Cal is the only Bay Area school without a dance partner.

Just saw that even Crown said "no thanks." Or maybe we did!
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2025/03/17/college-basketball-crown-schedule-bracket-teams-what-to-know/82490071007/

College Basketball Crown 2025 teams

Teams listed in alphabetical order
Arizona State
Boise State
Butler
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Colorado
DePaul
Georgetown
George Washington
Nebraska
Oregon State
Southern California
Tulane
Utah
Villanova
Washington State



On the Crown website:

"The College Basketball Crown is a new 16-team, single-elimination postseason tournament featuring teams from the Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East conferences, along with additional at-large participants."

BearSD
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sycasey said:



West Virginia is the team that almost everyone had getting in and got snubbed. In fact, they aren't in any postseason tournament! I assume they just turned down the NIT or CBC bids?
Maybe because WVU's coach was finalizing a deal to become Indiana's new coach.
CalLifer
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BearSD said:

sycasey said:



West Virginia is the team that almost everyone had getting in and got snubbed. In fact, they aren't in any postseason tournament! I assume they just turned down the NIT or CBC bids?
Maybe because WVU's coach was finalizing a deal to become Indiana's new coach.
Maybe the governor of West Virginia needs to hold a press conference threatening to sue the governor of Indiana for interfering in their ability to miss the NCAA tournament!
HKBear97!
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BearSD said:

sycasey said:

BearSD said:

sycasey said:

barsad said:

sycasey said:

Pretty shocked that UNC got in after Louisville got stuck with an 8 seed! They still love the brand names.

UNC was a shocker (1-12 in Quad 1 games!), but so was Texas with 19 wins.
Then Stanford and Santa Clara gets the NIT, and San Jose St. is in the NIT with only 15 wins? I guess because it's a host institution? Not sure.
But Cal and USF are the only two Bay Area schools without a dance partner.

I've looked into it and it seems like UNC had the best advanced metrics/computer ratings were the best of the bubble teams. They had a bad record in Quad 1 because they only played teams at the top top of that quad. So I suppose that is defensible.

West Virginia is the team that almost everyone had getting in and got snubbed. In fact, they aren't in any postseason tournament! I assume they just turned down the NIT or CBC bids?
ESPN and the rest of the media's exaggerated outrage machine are wrong about West Virginia, Indiana, Boise, etc. Their fallacy is that if Texas and UNC were not truly deserving, then someone else must deserve their places. A more realistic way of looking at it is that the bubble is full of teams that have, at best, a very weak argument for deserving a spot, and the committee has to pick two or three out of the not-really-deserving pile of teams.

Sure, but still you can argue about who is best or most deserving of that group. Having looked deeper into it, I can't necessarily say UNC is a bad selection, as the computer metrics loved them (again, as compared to the others on the bubble).
We can argue, but no one got "robbed". If my neighbor wins the lottery and I don't, I didn't get robbed just because he got something he didn't earn and I didn't get something I didn't earn.


Only the first half, but UNC looking like they belong so far.

Edit: different topic - I used to root for the PAC-12 teams in the tournament each year, rooting for ACC teams just does not feel right.
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