smokeyrover;316022 said:
Yes.
No
To me, winning games is what drives recruiting, not landing local stars. If Cal is able to land Wiltjer and Bell (and either misses or passes on some of the local highly rated players), goes on to win another Pac-10 championship with those guys + the 2010 class (L.A. and Chicago), and goes deep in the tourney, how does that "put us in a very challenged recruiting position"?
Cal's profile will be elevated from where it is now, and the young local talent, their parents, HS and AAU coaches of 2013 and beyond will look favorably at Cal as a winning program, not to mention the out-of-the-area schools where Cal's 2010 and 2011 classes matriculated from.
All that said, Ashley is a must-get the same way that Powe was -- he has a pro future and really would create some buzz for the program (i.e. ticket sales).
I agree with you guys that Monty needs to land some elite talent, but I trust him with his evaluations. If he deems a better fit with an elite player who happens to be from Portland, Seattle, or L.A. (all areas with consistently more higher rated players than the Bay Area) and LANDS that player at the expense of a local player who is not as good a fit, I don't see a problem there.
Perhaps we disagree on our confidence about Monty's ability to land elite recruits OUTSIDE the Bay Area? I think that is a HUGE question mark. Local talent is always easier to land because players want to play in front of friends and family. Look at it this way, players want to win, they want lots of TV exposure, they want the perception of having played BIG time basketball and they want to get to the NBA. They also want to play in nice facilities, have a great environment around the campus and some want a degree that matters.
Cal's measurement against those criteria:
Winning: B
Exposure: B
Prestige: B
NBA: B+
Facilities: B+
Campus location/environment: A-
Academics: A
Give Monty five years of taking the team to the NCAAs with another P10 title and our winning and exposure and prestige will rise to a B+ and perhaps an A-. But that isn't going to happen overnight and five years is a LONG time. And by the way, those criteria are almost certain to take a hit next year as we are in big time rebuilding mode.
My premise is that Monty will struggle to land elite recruits outside of NorCal. That's based on his track record at Stanford where he landed some national elite recruits but not as many as you might think and he had the "Stanford" draw pulling players in a way that Cal can't match. So far at Cal, he has struck out on every elite recruit he's gone after. Crabbe might now be an elite prospect but he wasn't when he signed his NLI.
If you agree with my premise and believe as I do that local elite talent will lean heavily into staying close at home then Monty does in fact need to land some of the surplus of great talent from NorCal.
And don't be confused, it's not about evaluation. Monty has evaluated them and is ALL OVER Jabari Brown and Brandon Ashley and we are actively recruiting Turner as well as Drew Gordon's younger brother (who is every bit as big a recruit as Ashley).
Summed up, it is my belief that for us to be a top 20 national program in the next five years, we will need to keep the majority of elite NorCal talent at home. My guess is that there will be 6-7 elite recruits in NorCal in the next three years (Turner, Brown, Ashley, Gordon + 2-3 others) with elite defined as top 50 players. We need at least three of those guys.
