What's going to happen with Sueing's jump shot?

5,488 Views | 28 Replies | Last: 8 yr ago by SFCityBear
Big C
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Justice Sueing's jumper looks like it was formed when he was too small to shoot a three, using a higher release. It's not easy to look at, but I will say it goes in more often than I'd expect, plus he seems to be able to get it off.

But his form is problematic, most likely. So what are they gonna do?

* Leave it, have him practice shooting a lot and just hope for a higher success rate?
* Change it gradually, over the course of a couple of years?
* Cold turkey: Abandon the current form, immediately and forever, and give him a new jump shot right away, with six months to work on it before fall practice?

Plus, who makes the call in a situation like this? Sueing has to embrace the change, ultimately, so is it decided by committee? I remember reading here that, a couple of years ago, some of the players wanted to go to a private shooting coach, but Cuonzo bristled (one of the many problems Jordan Mathews had with him, IIRC). Would they do anything like that now? Does shooting mechanics happen to be a specialty of one of the assistants?
KoreAmBear
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I'd be more worried about JHD's shot.
SFCityBear
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Big C said:

Justice Sueing's jumper looks like it was formed when he was too small to shoot a three, using a higher release. It's not easy to look at, but I will say it goes in more often than I'd expect, plus he seems to be able to get it off.

But his form is problematic, most likely. So what are they gonna do?

* Leave it, have him practice shooting a lot and just hope for a higher success rate?
* Change it gradually, over the course of a couple of years?
* Cold turkey: Abandon the current form, immediately and forever, and give him a new jump shot right away, with six months to work on it before fall practice?

Plus, who makes the call in a situation like this? Sueing has to embrace the change, ultimately, so is it decided by committee? I remember reading here that, a couple of years ago, some of the players wanted to go to a private shooting coach, but Cuonzo bristled (one of the many problems Jordan Mathews had with him, IIRC). Would they do anything like that now? Does shooting mechanics happen to be a specialty of one of the assistants?
In my opinion, the problem is not the high release, but the long wrist cock. He shoots too much with the small muscles. The wrist is capable of too many degrees of motion, and can throw the shot off long, short, left or right. I think he needs to uses his arms, shoulder and leg muscles more to shoot, and make the wrist more quiet. In other words, reduce the cock or ditch it altogether. Maybe as he matures and gets stronger, he will be able to do this. He is only shooting 31% from three and 67% from the line, which both need a lot of improvement, to be able to hold his starting job and contribute in the future. If it is a question of strength, it will be easier to fix, than if it is just a habit he has always had. I remember Tom Meschery, the great St Marys All-American, shot with a wrist cock, and an elbow cock in his junior year of high school, bringing the ball behind his head to shoot. By his senior year, and at St Mary"s, he changed to holding the ball over his head with very little wrist and elbow in the shot, using mostly leg and arm muscles to propel the ball, IMO. He had a long NBA career.

Is there much evidence that shooting coaches help? I would prefer it if players figured out how to shoot all by themselves.

SFCityBear
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KoreAmBear said:

I'd be more worried about JHD's shot.
Me too. He does not appear to have one yet. Tough in this day and age to get minutes without being able to shoot. It makes you too easy to defend.
Big C
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KoreAmBear said:

I'd be more worried about JHD's shot.
Oh, for sure. Thing is though, maybe JHD attempts 10 three pointers next season, while Sueing attempts maybe 100.

Did Harris-Dyson even attempt a three-pointer last season? I went to about ten games and I don't even have a mental image of him taking an outside shot.

So, no question, JHD needs a jumper. But Sueing is going to be shooting for us and his form appears flawed. I'm wondering what the plan is. As caltagjohnson writes, below, maybe the plan is to do nothing.
oskidunker
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He made one which he banked in.
Bring back It’s It’s to Haas Pavillion!
caltagjohnson
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This dialogue is a bunch of BS. If you ever played BB, you should know that there is no such thing as the "ideal" form. If you turned him over to the "experts" here, he would not be able to make a layup. Leave him alone.
Big C
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caltagjohnson said:

This dialogue is a bunch of BS. If you ever played BB, you should know that there is no such thing as the "ideal" form. If you turned him over to the "experts" here, he would not be able to make a layup. Leave him alone.
I have played BB and I disagree. For ideal form on a jump shot, watch Klay Thompson. For the "new ideal", watch Steph Curry (similar, but with slightly earlier release). For a "general ideal" watch most any of the top jump shooters in the NBA over the past few decades (most all fairly similar). Then watch Sueing's jumper and notice the difference.

When a young player has mechanics that appear to be less than ideal, one possibility is to not make any changes. That was the first of the options I proposed. Sounds like it's the one you choose for Sueing. Fine.

There are other viable options though.
TheSouseFamily
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SFCityBear said:

KoreAmBear said:

I'd be more worried about JHD's shot.
Me too. He does not appear to have one yet. Tough in this day and age to get minutes without being able to shoot. It makes you too easy to defend.


I think we'd all like to see JHD add the three to his arsenal but I still think he can be (and has been, at times) an effective player on offense without it. His game reminds me a bit of UNC's Theo Pinson who wasn't an inside guy, nor a perimeter guy. But he was extremely effective in transition, driving/attacking the rim and playing good defense. JHD's quickness can be a big asset in a lot of ways both offensively and defensively.

But yeah, let's add that perimeter shooting too. The videos Eric posted seemed to suggest some progress but it's hard to really know until it's live fire.
puget sound cal fan
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...particularly, when your position is one that requires a serious perimeter scoring capability.
concordtom
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KoreAmBear said:

I'd be more worried about JHD's shot.
You just doubled down on a fair question/topic by Big C, and I'm like, YIKES!
bearister
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caltagjohnson said:

This dialogue is a bunch of BS. If you ever played BB, you should know that there is no such thing as the "ideal" form. If you turned him over to the "experts" here, he would not be able to make a layup. Leave him alone.


Not buying it. Bad mechanics kill you at crunch time in hoops and golf (unless your name is Jim Furyk). You can be serviceable, but pass it before you take the buzzer beater in a big game.
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SFCityBear
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caltagjohnson said:

This dialogue is a bunch of BS. If you ever played BB, you should know that there is no such thing as the "ideal" form. If you turned him over to the "experts" here, he would not be able to make a layup. Leave him alone.
There is much truth in what you say. There is no ideal form. Everyone is a little bit different. And not everyone can learn to shoot threes, nor should they. He would do well to improve his free throws, and I'd like to see him have a pull up jump shot from 5-15 feet. Beyond that there floaters and hook shots. Any or all of that would make him tougher to guard, without even having learned a three point shot. And all those shots are not hard to learn. Personally, I would like to see him become a better passer, and make some assists, which would also make him harder to guard than just going to the rim all the time. I think he can become good enough defensively to earn his minutes that way, but I'd like to see more offense from him.
HoopDreams
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Interesting discussion

Justice is a pretty good shooter so I could say don't touch it

However I don't think he will ever be a great shooter

I like his high arc and think it helps him get off and make shots

But his motion doesn't give me confidence it can be consistent at the level of a top shooter. One reason is accuracy and consistency, which is what SF is saying

I'd add what looks to me to be a sideward spin, or at least not that nice balanced backward spin that all great shooters have.

But I think he would have to rebuild his shot, and that is very difficult. Usually a player gets worse before they get better

JHD on the other hand has an unacceptable poor shot for a guard, but with a shooting coach, I think he can improve a lot. Not to great level, but to an acceptable level, and then improve over time from there
UrsaMajor
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HoopDreams said:

Interesting discussion

Justice is a pretty good shooter so I could say don't touch it

However I don't think he will ever be a great shooter

I like his high arc and think it helps him get off and make shots

But his motion doesn't give me confidence it can be consistent at the level of a top shooter. One reason is accuracy and consistency, which is what SF is saying

I'd add what looks to me to be a sideward spin, or at least not that nice balanced backward spin that all great shooters have.

But I think he would have to rebuild his shot, and that is very difficult. Usually a player gets worse before they get better

JHD on the other hand has an unacceptable poor shot for a guard, but with a shooting coach, I think he can improve a lot. Not to great level, but to an acceptable level, and then improve over time from there
Both Sueing and JHD need an acceptable jump shot. Anything around 33% from 3 will do it, because it will force defenders to be honest and open up lanes for penetration which is their game. I agree that neither is likely to be the next Alan Crabbe.
Big C
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UrsaMajor said:

HoopDreams said:

Interesting discussion

Justice is a pretty good shooter so I could say don't touch it

However I don't think he will ever be a great shooter

I like his high arc and think it helps him get off and make shots

But his motion doesn't give me confidence it can be consistent at the level of a top shooter. One reason is accuracy and consistency, which is what SF is saying

I'd add what looks to me to be a sideward spin, or at least not that nice balanced backward spin that all great shooters have.

But I think he would have to rebuild his shot, and that is very difficult. Usually a player gets worse before they get better

JHD on the other hand has an unacceptable poor shot for a guard, but with a shooting coach, I think he can improve a lot. Not to great level, but to an acceptable level, and then improve over time from there
Both Sueing and JHD need an acceptable jump shot. Anything around 33% from 3 will do it, because it will force defenders to be honest and open up lanes for penetration which is their game. I agree that neither is likely to be the next Alan Crabbe.
Two entirely different situations which you're trying to lump together. This past season...

Sueing was 42 for 135 on three-point-attempts, for 31% (not far from your stated "will do it" standard). He will be called upon to be one of our top 2-3 scorers as long as he's here. His 3 pt shot is decent now, but his form looks flawed.

Harris-Dyson was 0 for 18 on three-point-attempts. But for his glaring weakness as a shooter, he is an all-around good player. If he could go 15-for-50 from beyond the arc next season (30%), that would be good (for him). I have no idea what his form looks like, because I can't recall seeing him shoot.
SFCityBear
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UrsaMajor said:

HoopDreams said:

Interesting discussion

Justice is a pretty good shooter so I could say don't touch it

However I don't think he will ever be a great shooter

I like his high arc and think it helps him get off and make shots

But his motion doesn't give me confidence it can be consistent at the level of a top shooter. One reason is accuracy and consistency, which is what SF is saying

I'd add what looks to me to be a sideward spin, or at least not that nice balanced backward spin that all great shooters have.

But I think he would have to rebuild his shot, and that is very difficult. Usually a player gets worse before they get better

JHD on the other hand has an unacceptable poor shot for a guard, but with a shooting coach, I think he can improve a lot. Not to great level, but to an acceptable level, and then improve over time from there
Both Sueing and JHD need an acceptable jump shot. Anything around 33% from 3 will do it, because it will force defenders to be honest and open up lanes for penetration which is their game. I agree that neither is likely to be the next Alan Crabbe.
I respectfully disagree. Sueing has a good shooting percentage on two-pointers for a guard (0.507). If you want him to raise that percentage or get more opportunities to score on the drive, then shooting threes "at around 33%" won't cut it. If we do the math, it looks like this:

0.507 x 2 points = 1.014 points per two point attempt.

1.014/3 points = 0.338 So Sueing would have to shoot AT LEAST around 34% to get enough respect from defenders to play him straight up. If you want them to respect his three, then he would have make threes at an even higher rate.

This simplistic analysis does not factor in free throws. Most free throws are awarded on two point shot attempts, or on the way to the basket to take a shot attempt. Very few FT attempts are awarded for other reasons, including a player fouled in the act of shooting a three. Here is some more simple math on Justice Sueing:

He had 128 free throw attempts and 227 two-point field goal attempts last season. Making the general assumption that all those free throws were awarded on his penetrations, then 128/227 = 0.564 FTA/2ptFGA. So for every penetration he averaged 0.564 x 1 point = 0.564 points. (This does not factor in mid range jumpers, or losing the ball on the drive, or whether he was awarded one or two free throws it is just an approximation.)

So Sueing might be averaging a maximum of 1.014 + 0.564 = 1.578 points on his drive.
1.578/3 = 0.526, the highest percentage he would have to shoot threes to equal his ability to score the same number of points on the drive including his free throws. That is a tall order, and that is why Cuonzo Martin insisted on all his players taking it to the rim, and either score or get fouled and get some free throws, rather than have them shoot threes, unless they could get close to 40% on threes to make defenders respect that three. Crabbe shot threes at 38-39%, and he was respected, allowing him to develop a drive over 3 years time. Anything less than that will not garner much more respect for Sueing, IMO.

The major college guard with the highest ranked 2-point shooting percentage last season was Alonzo Trier at 61.6% (#92 overall) He shot threes at 38%, which teams respected enough to give him good opportunities to drive. Sueing gets up to 38-40%, and that should be enough to allow him the opportunities to score more points on the drive, and raise his two-point percentage to 53-55% or higher.









SFCityBear
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Big C said:

UrsaMajor said:

HoopDreams said:

Interesting discussion

Justice is a pretty good shooter so I could say don't touch it

However I don't think he will ever be a great shooter

I like his high arc and think it helps him get off and make shots

But his motion doesn't give me confidence it can be consistent at the level of a top shooter. One reason is accuracy and consistency, which is what SF is saying

I'd add what looks to me to be a sideward spin, or at least not that nice balanced backward spin that all great shooters have.

But I think he would have to rebuild his shot, and that is very difficult. Usually a player gets worse before they get better

JHD on the other hand has an unacceptable poor shot for a guard, but with a shooting coach, I think he can improve a lot. Not to great level, but to an acceptable level, and then improve over time from there
Both Sueing and JHD need an acceptable jump shot. Anything around 33% from 3 will do it, because it will force defenders to be honest and open up lanes for penetration which is their game. I agree that neither is likely to be the next Alan Crabbe.
Two entirely different situations which you're trying to lump together. This past season...

Sueing was 42 for 135 on three-point-attempts, for 31% (not far from your stated "will do it" standard). He will be called upon to be one of our top 2-3 scorers as long as he's here. His 3 pt shot is decent now, but his form looks flawed.

Harris-Dyson was 0 for 18 on three-point-attempts. But for his glaring weakness as a shooter, he is an all-around good player. If he could go 15-for-50 from beyond the arc next season (30%), that would be good (for him). I have no idea what his form looks like, because I can't recall seeing him shoot.
Harris-Dyson doesn't need a three point shot. it would be nice, but not everyone can do it. It is like baby steps. We all learned to shoot by shooting from two feet away and progressed bit by bit, until our bodies matured enough to be able to reach the basket from much farther out. He needs to start with short jumpers, floaters, hooks, pull ups, and free throws, and when he has mastered one or more of those, move a bit further out. It can take years to develop and gain confidence. Worst thing they could do, IMO, is have him try shooting threes now, without any foundation. He doesn't need to make threes, but he does need to have some other options or ways to score. If he can't do that, he should learn to pass better, and pass more. There is an opening at backup point guard right now, for example.
UrsaMajor
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SFCityBear said:

UrsaMajor said:

HoopDreams said:

Interesting discussion

Justice is a pretty good shooter so I could say don't touch it

However I don't think he will ever be a great shooter

I like his high arc and think it helps him get off and make shots

But his motion doesn't give me confidence it can be consistent at the level of a top shooter. One reason is accuracy and consistency, which is what SF is saying

I'd add what looks to me to be a sideward spin, or at least not that nice balanced backward spin that all great shooters have.

But I think he would have to rebuild his shot, and that is very difficult. Usually a player gets worse before they get better

JHD on the other hand has an unacceptable poor shot for a guard, but with a shooting coach, I think he can improve a lot. Not to great level, but to an acceptable level, and then improve over time from there
Both Sueing and JHD need an acceptable jump shot. Anything around 33% from 3 will do it, because it will force defenders to be honest and open up lanes for penetration which is their game. I agree that neither is likely to be the next Alan Crabbe.
I respectfully disagree. Sueing has a good shooting percentage on two-pointers for a guard (0.507). If you want him to raise that percentage or get more opportunities to score on the drive, then shooting threes "at around 33%" won't cut it. If we do the math, it looks like this:

0.507 x 2 points = 1.014 points per two point attempt.

1.014/3 points = 0.338 So Sueing would have to shoot AT LEAST around 34% to get enough respect from defenders to play him straight up. If you want them to respect his three, then he would have make threes at an even higher rate.

This simplistic analysis does not factor in free throws. Most free throws are awarded on two point shot attempts, or on the way to the basket to take a shot attempt. Very few FT attempts are awarded for other reasons, including a player fouled in the act of shooting a three. Here is some more simple math on Justice Sueing:

He had 128 free throw attempts and 227 two-point field goal attempts last season. Making the general assumption that all those free throws were awarded on his penetrations, then 128/227 = 0.564 FTA/2ptFGA. So for every penetration he averaged 0.564 x 1 point = 0.564 points. (This does not factor in mid range jumpers, or losing the ball on the drive, or whether he was awarded one or two free throws it is just an approximation.)

So Sueing might be averaging a maximum of 1.014 + 0.564 = 1.578 points on his drive.
1.578/3 = 0.526, the highest percentage he would have to shoot threes to equal his ability to score the same number of points on the drive including his free throws. That is a tall order, and that is why Cuonzo Martin insisted on all his players taking it to the rim, and either score or get fouled and get some free throws, rather than have them shoot threes, unless they could get close to 40% on threes to make defenders respect that three. Crabbe shot threes at 38-39%, and he was respected, allowing him to develop a drive over 3 years time. Anything less than that will not garner much more respect for Sueing, IMO.

The major college guard with the highest ranked 2-point shooting percentage last season was Alonzo Trier at 61.6% (#92 overall) He shot threes at 38%, which teams respected enough to give him good opportunities to drive. Sueing gets up to 38-40%, and that should be enough to allow him the opportunities to score more points on the drive, and raise his two-point percentage to 53-55% or higher.










Interesting and informative analysis. I was using the gross number of 33% (technically, 33.33333) equalling 50% on 2's, but you are right to amend that. If Sueing could get to 38%, his offensive game would be huge. Given the way he plays, I'd settle for 35%, which would probably make him a serious threat every time he had the ball in his hands.
SFCityBear
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UrsaMajor said:

SFCityBear said:

UrsaMajor said:

HoopDreams said:

Interesting discussion

Justice is a pretty good shooter so I could say don't touch it

However I don't think he will ever be a great shooter

I like his high arc and think it helps him get off and make shots

But his motion doesn't give me confidence it can be consistent at the level of a top shooter. One reason is accuracy and consistency, which is what SF is saying

I'd add what looks to me to be a sideward spin, or at least not that nice balanced backward spin that all great shooters have.

But I think he would have to rebuild his shot, and that is very difficult. Usually a player gets worse before they get better

JHD on the other hand has an unacceptable poor shot for a guard, but with a shooting coach, I think he can improve a lot. Not to great level, but to an acceptable level, and then improve over time from there
Both Sueing and JHD need an acceptable jump shot. Anything around 33% from 3 will do it, because it will force defenders to be honest and open up lanes for penetration which is their game. I agree that neither is likely to be the next Alan Crabbe.
I respectfully disagree. Sueing has a good shooting percentage on two-pointers for a guard (0.507). If you want him to raise that percentage or get more opportunities to score on the drive, then shooting threes "at around 33%" won't cut it. If we do the math, it looks like this:

0.507 x 2 points = 1.014 points per two point attempt.

1.014/3 points = 0.338 So Sueing would have to shoot AT LEAST around 34% to get enough respect from defenders to play him straight up. If you want them to respect his three, then he would have make threes at an even higher rate.

This simplistic analysis does not factor in free throws. Most free throws are awarded on two point shot attempts, or on the way to the basket to take a shot attempt. Very few FT attempts are awarded for other reasons, including a player fouled in the act of shooting a three. Here is some more simple math on Justice Sueing:

He had 128 free throw attempts and 227 two-point field goal attempts last season. Making the general assumption that all those free throws were awarded on his penetrations, then 128/227 = 0.564 FTA/2ptFGA. So for every penetration he averaged 0.564 x 1 point = 0.564 points. (This does not factor in mid range jumpers, or losing the ball on the drive, or whether he was awarded one or two free throws it is just an approximation.)

So Sueing might be averaging a maximum of 1.014 + 0.564 = 1.578 points on his drive.
1.578/3 = 0.526, the highest percentage he would have to shoot threes to equal his ability to score the same number of points on the drive including his free throws. That is a tall order, and that is why Cuonzo Martin insisted on all his players taking it to the rim, and either score or get fouled and get some free throws, rather than have them shoot threes, unless they could get close to 40% on threes to make defenders respect that three. Crabbe shot threes at 38-39%, and he was respected, allowing him to develop a drive over 3 years time. Anything less than that will not garner much more respect for Sueing, IMO.

The major college guard with the highest ranked 2-point shooting percentage last season was Alonzo Trier at 61.6% (#92 overall) He shot threes at 38%, which teams respected enough to give him good opportunities to drive. Sueing gets up to 38-40%, and that should be enough to allow him the opportunities to score more points on the drive, and raise his two-point percentage to 53-55% or higher.










Interesting and informative analysis. I was using the gross number of 33% (technically, 33.33333) equalling 50% on 2's, but you are right to amend that. If Sueing could get to 38%, his offensive game would be huge. Given the way he plays, I'd settle for 35%, which would probably make him a serious threat every time he had the ball in his hands.
Thanks. In general what I wrote was right with the assumptions I made, but it looks like I made a mistake in the analysis by forgetting to include Harris-Dyson's free throw percentage in the calculation. He made his free throws at a 57.3%. So his points scored per free throw attempt is 128 FTA/227 2ptFGA x 0.672 points/FTA or 0.564 x 0.672 = 0.379 free throw points per two-point field goal attempt, instead of 0.564 points. That makes his points per penetration or drive to the basket 1.014 + 0.379 = 1.393 points, instead of 1.578 points.

So he would have to raise his three-point shooting percentage to 1.393/3 = 0.464 in order to average the same number of points on three point shot attempts as he does on two point attempts, which is more realistic. I hope this is not too confusing.

In any case, Sueing would do really well to improve his three point shooting as you said. As he matures physically and gains experience, and if and when Cal coaches can run plays for him to get open lanes to the hoop, his two point percentage could improve as well, and he would have to improve his three point percentage even further if he wants to keep defenders from concentrating on defending his drives. He has plenty of ability and upside, so it will be interesting if he and his coaches can do these things.





helltopay1
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Come on guys----you promised there would be no Math. my takeaway---if he improves his three-point %, his two-point % will also improve, See??No math. Cal badly needs many more three-point shooters on the controversial theory that 3 is more than 2. How many times was Cal destroyed last year at Haas by 'inferior" programs because their guards rained down three-pointers like confetti on New Years Eve??
UrsaMajor
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SFCityBear said:

UrsaMajor said:

SFCityBear said:

UrsaMajor said:

HoopDreams said:

Interesting discussion

Justice is a pretty good shooter so I could say don't touch it

However I don't think he will ever be a great shooter

I like his high arc and think it helps him get off and make shots

But his motion doesn't give me confidence it can be consistent at the level of a top shooter. One reason is accuracy and consistency, which is what SF is saying

I'd add what looks to me to be a sideward spin, or at least not that nice balanced backward spin that all great shooters have.

But I think he would have to rebuild his shot, and that is very difficult. Usually a player gets worse before they get better

JHD on the other hand has an unacceptable poor shot for a guard, but with a shooting coach, I think he can improve a lot. Not to great level, but to an acceptable level, and then improve over time from there
Both Sueing and JHD need an acceptable jump shot. Anything around 33% from 3 will do it, because it will force defenders to be honest and open up lanes for penetration which is their game. I agree that neither is likely to be the next Alan Crabbe.
I respectfully disagree. Sueing has a good shooting percentage on two-pointers for a guard (0.507). If you want him to raise that percentage or get more opportunities to score on the drive, then shooting threes "at around 33%" won't cut it. If we do the math, it looks like this:

0.507 x 2 points = 1.014 points per two point attempt.

1.014/3 points = 0.338 So Sueing would have to shoot AT LEAST around 34% to get enough respect from defenders to play him straight up. If you want them to respect his three, then he would have make threes at an even higher rate.

This simplistic analysis does not factor in free throws. Most free throws are awarded on two point shot attempts, or on the way to the basket to take a shot attempt. Very few FT attempts are awarded for other reasons, including a player fouled in the act of shooting a three. Here is some more simple math on Justice Sueing:

He had 128 free throw attempts and 227 two-point field goal attempts last season. Making the general assumption that all those free throws were awarded on his penetrations, then 128/227 = 0.564 FTA/2ptFGA. So for every penetration he averaged 0.564 x 1 point = 0.564 points. (This does not factor in mid range jumpers, or losing the ball on the drive, or whether he was awarded one or two free throws it is just an approximation.)

So Sueing might be averaging a maximum of 1.014 + 0.564 = 1.578 points on his drive.
1.578/3 = 0.526, the highest percentage he would have to shoot threes to equal his ability to score the same number of points on the drive including his free throws. That is a tall order, and that is why Cuonzo Martin insisted on all his players taking it to the rim, and either score or get fouled and get some free throws, rather than have them shoot threes, unless they could get close to 40% on threes to make defenders respect that three. Crabbe shot threes at 38-39%, and he was respected, allowing him to develop a drive over 3 years time. Anything less than that will not garner much more respect for Sueing, IMO.

The major college guard with the highest ranked 2-point shooting percentage last season was Alonzo Trier at 61.6% (#92 overall) He shot threes at 38%, which teams respected enough to give him good opportunities to drive. Sueing gets up to 38-40%, and that should be enough to allow him the opportunities to score more points on the drive, and raise his two-point percentage to 53-55% or higher.










Interesting and informative analysis. I was using the gross number of 33% (technically, 33.33333) equalling 50% on 2's, but you are right to amend that. If Sueing could get to 38%, his offensive game would be huge. Given the way he plays, I'd settle for 35%, which would probably make him a serious threat every time he had the ball in his hands.
Thanks. In general what I wrote was right with the assumptions I made, but it looks like I made a mistake in the analysis by forgetting to include Harris-Dyson's free throw percentage in the calculation. He made his free throws at a 57.3%. So his points scored per free throw attempt is 128 FTA/227 2ptFGA x 0.672 points/FTA or 0.564 x 0.672 = 0.379 free throw points per two-point field goal attempt, instead of 0.564 points. That makes his points per penetration or drive to the basket 1.014 + 0.379 = 1.393 points, instead of 1.578 points.

So he would have to raise his three-point shooting percentage to 1.393/3 = 0.464 in order to average the same number of points on three point shot attempts as he does on two point attempts, which is more realistic. I hope this is not too confusing.

In any case, Sueing would do really well to improve his three point shooting as you said. As he matures physically and gains experience, and if and when Cal coaches can run plays for him to get open lanes to the hoop, his two point percentage could improve as well, and he would have to improve his three point percentage even further if he wants to keep defenders from concentrating on defending his drives. He has plenty of ability and upside, so it will be interesting if he and his coaches can do these things.






One tiny correction (although it is one that probably doesn't change the takeaway much): we can't assume that all FT attempts come on drives. There is a small percentage that are 1 and 1 attempts either at the end of games when the opponents are deliberately fouling or on those frustrating reach in fouls when one is dribbling on the perimeter, or even off the ball fouls.
GMP
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I think he does need to adjust, and I think there's a pretty easy fix. Here's what I said during the season:


Quote:

Sueing has a very soft shot, and this causes the ball to often go in even when not perfect. However, I noticed during the UCLA game that Sueing's off-hand is way out in front of the ball before he shoots. This likely gives the ball a bit of a side-spin, and makes his shot less consistent than it otherwise could be. He needs to bring that hand back behind the ball more. It's a simple fix, but one he should begin working on as soon as possible. His release is also a bit of catapult motion - which doesn't seem perfectly repeatable. Still, others have been successful with such a motion and he can be too, especially if he fixes his offhand placement.
Here's a picture of him shooting a free throw. It's the same now.



Look how far in front his right hand is. That is poor form. This is true on his jumper, too. I think it's a simple fix that doesn't require a complete reformation of his jumper.
SFCityBear
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helltopay1 said:

Come on guys----you promised there would be no Math. my takeaway---if he improves his three-point %, his two-point % will also improve, See??No math. Cal badly needs many more three-point shooters on the controversial theory that 3 is more than 2. How many times was Cal destroyed last year at Haas by 'inferior" programs because their guards rained down three-pointers like confetti on New Years Eve??
I was just having a little fun. You probably were not a disciple of Ivan Barker at Lowell, who could run rings around any math teacher I had at Cal.
SFCityBear
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GMP said:

I think he does need to adjust, and I think there's a pretty easy fix. Here's what I said during the season:


Quote:

Sueing has a very soft shot, and this causes the ball to often go in even when not perfect. However, I noticed during the UCLA game that Sueing's off-hand is way out in front of the ball before he shoots. This likely gives the ball a bit of a side-spin, and makes his shot less consistent than it otherwise could be. He needs to bring that hand back behind the ball more. It's a simple fix, but one he should begin working on as soon as possible. His release is also a bit of catapult motion - which doesn't seem perfectly repeatable. Still, others have been successful with such a motion and he can be too, especially if he fixes his offhand placement.
Here's a picture of him shooting a free throw. It's the same now.



Look how far in front his right hand is. That is poor form. This is true on his jumper, too. I think it's a simple fix that doesn't require a complete reformation of his jumper.
I agree with you that his hand placement is unorthodox, and so is sidespin. I still believe his problem is the exaggerated cocking of his wrist (what you describe as a catapaulting motion). That also makes him take longer than average to release the shot, so he has to have more time to shoot, unlike a Jordan Mathews, for example. Sueing has more difficulty getting his shot off when he is closely guarded than does Mathews. By cocking his wrist in this way and catapaulting the shot, Sueing is letting the less reliable small muscles of the body (fingers, wrist, and forearm) control more of the shot, instead of the more reliable bigger muscles (upper arm, shoulder, and legs). The problem is that wrist. It can turn and move in several directions, and throw the shot off line, and with a long wrist cock, bending it full backwards, it has even more freedom and time to turn off line.

To take a lesson from golf, nearly all golfers have abandoned the very wristy putting strokes of yesteryear for the more reliable shoulder stroke of today, where wrists and fingers remain relatively quiet and almost immovable during the stroke, and the arms and shoulders and back muscles control most of the stroke.
Big C
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SFCityBear said:

GMP said:

I think he does need to adjust, and I think there's a pretty easy fix. Here's what I said during the season:


Quote:

Sueing has a very soft shot, and this causes the ball to often go in even when not perfect. However, I noticed during the UCLA game that Sueing's off-hand is way out in front of the ball before he shoots. This likely gives the ball a bit of a side-spin, and makes his shot less consistent than it otherwise could be. He needs to bring that hand back behind the ball more. It's a simple fix, but one he should begin working on as soon as possible. His release is also a bit of catapult motion - which doesn't seem perfectly repeatable. Still, others have been successful with such a motion and he can be too, especially if he fixes his offhand placement.
Here's a picture of him shooting a free throw. It's the same now.



Look how far in front his right hand is. That is poor form. This is true on his jumper, too. I think it's a simple fix that doesn't require a complete reformation of his jumper.
I agree with you that his hand placement is unorthodox, and so is sidespin. I still believe his problem is the exaggerated cocking of his wrist (what you describe as a catapaulting motion). That also makes him take longer than average to release the shot, so he has to have more time to shoot, unlike a Jordan Mathews, for example. Sueing has more difficulty getting his shot off when he is closely guarded than does Mathews. By cocking his wrist in this way and catapaulting the shot, Sueing is letting the less reliable small muscles of the body (fingers, wrist, and forearm) control more of the shot, instead of the more reliable bigger muscles (upper arm, shoulder, and legs). The problem is that wrist. It can turn and move in several directions, and throw the shot off line, and with a long wrist cock, bending it full backwards, it has even more freedom and time to turn off line.

To take a lesson from golf, nearly all golfers have abandoned the very wristy putting strokes of yesteryear for the more reliable shoulder stroke of today, where wrists and fingers remain relatively quiet and almost immovable during the stroke, and the arms and shoulders and back muscles control most of the stroke.
I'm not 100% sure on this, but I always thought it WAS the wrist that fires off jump shots and free throws, with power coming from the legs. Aren't you supposed to MINIMIZE the role of the elbow and shoulder? That way you are using fine motor skills of the wrist and hand to control the release of the ball. When kids start learning how to shoot, don't they stand right under the basket with their arm up straight and try to "wrist" the ball into the basket, then try and replicate that farther and farther out?

I don't know about the golf analogy, but how about writing? One holds the pen in the fingers for control (fine motor), as opposed to if one held it in their fist and tried to write using their arm (gross motor).

Just based on Sueing's jumper as it is imprinted on my mind from this past season, the problem with his form was that he would get his shooting arm under the ball (for power) and release it too low, a problem typical in kids that form their outside shot before they have the strength to shoot it properly.
UrsaMajor
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I think that you're both right in that the triceps give the ball it's thrust (along with the legs on jump shots), but the wrist imparts the spin which is essential for a soft shot.
BearGreg
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BI's Eric McDonough watched Sueing shoot today and talked to Justice and Wyking about his shooting form. See the thread on the premium board here with the details - here
concordtom
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ABC
Always
Be
Celling
SFCityBear
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Big C said:

SFCityBear said:

GMP said:

I think he does need to adjust, and I think there's a pretty easy fix. Here's what I said during the season:


Quote:

Sueing has a very soft shot, and this causes the ball to often go in even when not perfect. However, I noticed during the UCLA game that Sueing's off-hand is way out in front of the ball before he shoots. This likely gives the ball a bit of a side-spin, and makes his shot less consistent than it otherwise could be. He needs to bring that hand back behind the ball more. It's a simple fix, but one he should begin working on as soon as possible. His release is also a bit of catapult motion - which doesn't seem perfectly repeatable. Still, others have been successful with such a motion and he can be too, especially if he fixes his offhand placement.
Here's a picture of him shooting a free throw. It's the same now.



Look how far in front his right hand is. That is poor form. This is true on his jumper, too. I think it's a simple fix that doesn't require a complete reformation of his jumper.
I agree with you that his hand placement is unorthodox, and so is sidespin. I still believe his problem is the exaggerated cocking of his wrist (what you describe as a catapaulting motion). That also makes him take longer than average to release the shot, so he has to have more time to shoot, unlike a Jordan Mathews, for example. Sueing has more difficulty getting his shot off when he is closely guarded than does Mathews. By cocking his wrist in this way and catapaulting the shot, Sueing is letting the less reliable small muscles of the body (fingers, wrist, and forearm) control more of the shot, instead of the more reliable bigger muscles (upper arm, shoulder, and legs). The problem is that wrist. It can turn and move in several directions, and throw the shot off line, and with a long wrist cock, bending it full backwards, it has even more freedom and time to turn off line.

To take a lesson from golf, nearly all golfers have abandoned the very wristy putting strokes of yesteryear for the more reliable shoulder stroke of today, where wrists and fingers remain relatively quiet and almost immovable during the stroke, and the arms and shoulders and back muscles control most of the stroke.
I'm not 100% sure on this, but I always thought it WAS the wrist that fires off jump shots and free throws, with power coming from the legs. Aren't you supposed to MINIMIZE the role of the elbow and shoulder? That way you are using fine motor skills of the wrist and hand to control the release of the ball. When kids start learning how to shoot, don't they stand right under the basket with their arm up straight and try to "wrist" the ball into the basket, then try and replicate that farther and farther out?

I don't know about the golf analogy, but how about writing? One holds the pen in the fingers for control (fine motor), as opposed to if one held it in their fist and tried to write using their arm (gross motor).

Just based on Sueing's jumper as it is imprinted on my mind from this past season, the problem with his form was that he would get his shooting arm under the ball (for power) and release it too low, a problem typical in kids that form their outside shot before they have the strength to shoot it properly.
I'm not quite following this, with all due respect. I haven't watched any kids learning to shoot. I only know how I did it. When I started to learn, I stood under the basket in a crouch, with legs bent, and my arms down, not straight up, and I held the ball at waist level and tried to reach the basket by using all the strength I could muster, primarily from my legs and arms. If I couldn't reach the basket, I would crouch lower and try and summon up more strength. My dad, who played for Cal, tried to teach me to use a two-handed shot, with both hands applying the same force to the ball. I failed at that, because he had started to teach me to play tennis a few years before, so the muscles in my right arm were so much stronger than the left, that it threw the shots off line. I taught myself to shoot one handed, putting the right hand under the ball and the other hand on the left side of the ball just as a guide. in the early years, I still had to crouch some, but as I got older, I didn't need to crouch as much. I did try to replicate the same shot from farther out that I used closer in.

In the 5th grade, we all began shooting jump shots. I tried to copy other good players and pull the ball back behind my head, and there the elbows get more into the shot. It wasn't that accurate for me. I began shooting with a release from about forehead level, which did not require as much elbow motion and was more accurate.
In the 9th grade, our varsity was led by Tom Meschery, the great All-American, and his jumpshot looked a little like the one I had back in the 5th grade, releasing the ball from behind his head. By the next season, Meschery had completely changed his jump shot, to where he would jump and stretch his arms straight up and release the ball way above his head, mostly with his wrists and fingers, I would guess. I tried that, but I was not strong enough. Still I was a short player who did not jump high and I needed the extra height Meschery's style would give me. I developed a different grip where I spread and stretched my fingers out as far as they would go (like I was going to palm the ball), and that stiffened the wrist somewhat, and took both fingers and wrist out of the shot, except that touch is still in the fingers. I still released the ball way above my head, but with a smaller amount of elbow rotation than when I released the ball from lower levels. Of course, the farther from the basket, the more the elbow had to rotate. Another advantage of this method was the ball was in good position at the release to apply a little sidespin, which was effective in shots off the glass. I am surprised so few young players have much skill off the glass. Wilt Chamberlain shot all his perimeter shots off the glass, and was deadly. The schools only kept statistics on us one season and the same for CYO, and that year, I shot 67% in high school, and 68% in CYO, with most of my shots from beyond what would have been the three point line, with a few pull up jumpers and hook shots thrown into the mix. I shot 100% on free throws in my last year in HS, on a small sample, 24, using a one hand push shot. My methods worked well for me, even though I was constantly tinkering with them, and trying to invent new shots. I always practiced many shots from farther out than I would ever attempt in a game. If I could make 28 footers in practice, then I was more convinced that I could easily make 23 footers in a game.

I can't comment on your handwriting analogy. I have always had terrible penmanship.

I haven't seen Sueing in person, only on TV, but on TV it looks like he shoots with a high arc, which I would expect if he has his shooting hand under the ball.
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