OT: The Deep 3

1,191 Views | 2 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by SFCityBear
bearister
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"Thanks to long-range specialists like Steph Curry and Damian Lillard, the deep three (aka, a shot from at least three feet beyond the arc) is on the rise in the NBA and has quickly become one of the most influential shots of the decade.

Why it matters: Within a matter of years, the deep three has changed the way NBA games are played stretching defenses, opening up clear driving lanes and, perhaps most importantly, influencing the next generation.

By the numbers: "Go to an NBA game in 2019 and you're more than twice as likely to see a 27-foot jumper than a 16-footer," writes ESPN's Kirk Goldberry. "In 2013-14, those numbers were complete opposites."

Most deep threes in 2013-14: Lillard (1.4 per game), Kendall Marshall (1.2), Curry (1.1), Kyle Lowry (0.9), Jordan Crawford (0.9)
Most deep threes in 2019-20: Trae Young (6.3 per game), Luka Doni (6.2), James Harden (5.9), Eric Gordon (4.9), Lillard (3.9)
The impact: NBA teams are increasingly taping down makeshift four-point lines on their practice courts to prepare their defenses for players willing to fire from there, while also encouraging better overall spacing habits.

The big picture: "Just as a young Kobe Bryant wanted to be like Mike, the prodigies of today seek to shoot like Curry and Lillard," writes Goldberry. "That means one thing for the future of the NBA: more deep-range splashes." Axios
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calgo430
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we need to recruit a deadeye 3 point shooter. making a 3 50% better then making a 2.
helltopay1
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Dear Calgo: Not sure about your math skills: We need 3-4 recruits rather than 1 to be competitive. Also, a three is 50% better than a two??Please explain.
SFCityBear
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calgo430 said:

we need to recruit a deadeye 3 point shooter. making a 3 50% better then making a 2.
I agree on finding deadeye shooters. Making a 3 is worth one point more than making a 2, but that is misleading, because it does not take into account shooting percentages. In 2015, the NCAA average 3pt FG% was 34.51%. Multiply that by 3 points scored and that equals 1.035 points per 3pt attempt. The average NCAA 2pt FG% in 2015 was 48.26%. Multiply that by 2 points scored, and that equals 0.972 points per 2 point attempt. That is a difference of 0.063 points per attempt in favor of taking a three pointer over a two pointer.

That in turn does not take into account the fact that big men, centers and tall forwards, shoot twos on average at a much higher percentage than 48%, actually well over 50% or 60% and higher, so when teams have bigs who are good shooters, it is wise to have them shooting shots often. Some teams may have 3pt shooters who shoot well above average, say 45%, or over 50%, and those teams will often have their 3pt shooters taking more shots than the average team.

In the end it generally depends the talent of your shooters and the talents of the defenders matched up with them, as to whether a team takes more threes on average or more twos on average.
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