Hyder to decide on Saturday

6,904 Views | 48 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by HoopDreams
NathanAllen
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Assuming it doesn't get pushed back like Flowers today.
SFCityBear
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NathanAllen said:



Assuming it doesn't get pushed back like Flowers today.
Not very impressive stats, 3 assists and 9 points for 31 minutes. Still, he was only a freshman, but then again it is a weaker league. It would be nice to get a transfer from Fresno State. Usually we lose transfers to Fresno State, like Shantay Legans, Dominic McGuire, and Tremaine Fowlkes.
kc1121
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Committed, on his Twitter
TheSouseFamily
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oskidunker
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Ahhhh. Montey Buckleys old number, I think.Nowlets hope the ncaa lets him play this year.
Go Bears!
ManBearLion123
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Excellent news. I'm betting the coaching staff is banking on universal immediate eligibility (or on Flowers committing and graduating from WMU this summer), given their known recruiting targets.

Either way, Hyder's addition solidifies the PG position for the next 3-4 years.
oskidunker
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Point guard who Started most games at Fresneck. Was scoring 20 per game with a 38% three percentage and 83% free throw percentages in the preseason got injured and his production went down in conference to 28% threes.

Six players are transferring out of Fresno this year, including Hyders walk on brother. I wonder what is going on there. They do have three incoming transfers, including a point guard. Maybe he can beat out Joel Brown. A solid pick up.
Go Bears!
TheSouseFamily
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oskidunker said:

Point guard who Started most games at Fresneck. Was scoring 20 per game with a 38% three percentage and 83% free throw percentages in the preseason got injured and his production went down in conference to 38% threes.

Six players are transferring out of Fresno this year, including Hyders walk on brother. I wonder what is going on there. They do have three incoming transfers, including a point guard. Maybe he can beat out Joel Brown. A solid pick up.


It's fair to call him a combo guard but he's more shooting guard than point guard. He may spell Brown on occasion but I don't think Fox was looking at Hyder to play much point. Regardless, since we won't know about the transfer waiver situation until the end of May, I suspect Fox is still gonna be looking for someone who play some point immediately.
HoopDreams
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I didn't know about his injury... what kind?

we beat out some good competition for his services ... Missouri, Saint Mary's, Washington State and BYU.

If St. Mary's offered him, I take it he has real potential as they seem to be a good evaluator of talent
Chapman_is_Gone
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ManBearLion123 said:

Excellent news. I'm betting the coaching staff is banking on universal immediate eligibility (or on Flowers committing and graduating from WMU this summer), given their known recruiting targets.

Either way, Hyder's addition solidifies the PG position for the next 3-4 years.


I'd say "excellent news" would be our relatively new head coach bringing in a 4 or 5-star recruit, and doing so through more traditional channels. Isn't that exactly what would be happening if it were clear that Fox was an excellent hire? Instead, the perception that Fox was not the right hire gets cemented a little bit more with each miss and with each non-traditional move that he makes. It becomes harder and harder to convince anyone (recruits and their parents, fans, etc.) that the new coach has the program on the right trajectory. Fox has yet to bring in one single impact player.
concernedparent
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Quote:



If St. Mary's offered him, I take it he has real potential as they seem to be a good evaluator of talent
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/4593047/jarred-hyder

Interesting game by game stats. It's clear he has some talent, hopefully the consistency will come with experience.
stu
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Chapman_is_Gone said:

I'd say "excellent news" would be our relatively new head coach bringing in a 4 or 5-star recruit, and doing so through more traditional channels.
I agree. I'd call this good news because Hyder fills a need.

Quote:

Fox has yet to bring in one single impact player.
No first-year impact players for sure. Anybody could develop, my guess is Brown (if he counts as a Fox recruit) and Kuany are the most likely. If our players are good as juniors it would indicate Fox can evaluate potential and coach people up. But it will take 2 years to find out.
bearmanpg
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I saw Hyder play against St, Marys last season....he got 20 pts in the game.....probably why St, Marys was interested....it was only his 4th or 5th D1 game.....I was impressed at the time but didn't know about any injury....did notice the drop off in production but just figured teams started to scheme against his abilities....I think this is a good get.....he can definitely play some point, possibly beating out Brown for starter minutes....if not, he can shoot enough to play the 2.....my worries are on the defensive end...he isn't that big or strong so he will probably have some problems on defense......
SFCityBear
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Chapman_is_Gone said:

ManBearLion123 said:

Excellent news. I'm betting the coaching staff is banking on universal immediate eligibility (or on Flowers committing and graduating from WMU this summer), given their known recruiting targets.

Either way, Hyder's addition solidifies the PG position for the next 3-4 years.


I'd say "excellent news" would be our relatively new head coach bringing in a 4 or 5-star recruit, and doing so through more traditional channels. Isn't that exactly what would be happening if it were clear that Fox was an excellent hire? Instead, the perception that Fox was not the right hire gets cemented a little bit more with each miss and with each non-traditional move that he makes. It becomes harder and harder to convince anyone (recruits and their parents, fans, etc.) that the new coach has the program on the right trajectory. Fox has yet to bring in one single impact player.
I tire of hearing criticism of a coach's recruiting early in his career at Cal. Did you say the same thing about Cuonzo after he brought in that recruiting class of Okoroh and Chauca? And remember that Montgomery had handed Counzo a pretty good nucleus to start with, of Wallace, Bird, Mathews, and Rooks.

Can you define what you mean by "impact player"? What does this player have to do for his team? And does he have to do it in his first season as a freshman? Or are you willing to give the player more time to make an impact on his team?

I am also tired of hearing the implication so many fans make that a 4 or 5 star recruit is automatically an "impact player". They aren't. Some are, but not many. I looked at the rosters for the last 20 years or so. Here is my list of 4 and 5-star Cal recruits who made an impact at Cal. Some made an impact right away, and some took a couple years to make an impact:

Rabb
Wallace
Crabbe
Christopher
Boykin
Omar Wilkes
Powe
Gates
Wethers
Bradley

Here's my list of 4 and 5-star players who failed to make an impact at Cal:

Seely
Harrison
Kately
Donte Smith

Here is my list of 4 and 5-stars who played OK, but never lived up to the hype:

Brown
Sampson
Bird
Hardin
Ubaka
Domingo

Here is my list of 2-star, 3-star and unranked recruits who made an impact at Cal:

Ryan Anderson
Justin Cobbs
David Kravish
Jorge
Theo
Tamir
Lampley
Legans
Shipp
Midgley
MSF
Mathews
Randle
Benson

My point is all but a handful of "Can't miss" recruits are unknown quantities, not just their basketball ability, but the durability of their bodies, their mental and emotional makeup, their scholastic capability, their maturity, and their ability to work with a new coach and teammates to help make their team successful. Every year, 40% of these children change their minds and transfer to another school, and often leave making no impact at the school which originally signed them. Dominic McGuire was a perfect example of that. Every year several players nationwide quit school for the NBA, and that leaves their coach with a huge hole to fill. Every season, every team has players down with injuries. Bird was injured for most of his time at Cal. Harrison played a season and had his career ended by injury. A very good center prospect, Sam Rayburn got injured, and never played a minute at Cal. Players get suspended, and some flunk out due to their poor academic performance. Others get suspended or booted off the team for breaking rules or committing crimes. Coaches try to evaluate players, but in the end it is a crap shoot or a coin flip as to whether a recruit works out.

I'm not asking that you cut Mark Fox some slack. I'm asking you not to prejudge his recruits until you see them playing for Cal for at least a season. Please don't belittle them because they don't have 4 or 5 stars after their name. If we feel that way, we'll never enjoy players like Jorge or Ryan Anderson, because they will be playing for some other coach who was willing to take a look at them.
IssyBear
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This is the kind of one-and-done that I like.
NathanAllen
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Staff
oskidunker said:

Point guard who Started most games at Fresneck. Was scoring 20 per game with a 38% three percentage and 83% free throw percentages in the preseason got injured and his production went down in conference to 28% threes.

Six players are transferring out of Fresno this year, including Hyders walk on brother. I wonder what is going on there. They do have three incoming transfers, including a point guard. Maybe he can beat out Joel Brown. A solid pick up.
I'm not sure how much you can tie the injury to his production or efficiency decreasing in conference play. He scored 23 in his second game back from the injury against San Diego State. And he was still playing huge minutes after the injury.

Maybe the injury messed with him the rest of the year, but I'd be surprised if there weren't other factors contributing the number of minutes he was playing could be one. The dude was averaging 32 minutes per game, which was basically tied for most on the team. That's insane for a freshman.
Chapman_is_Gone
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SFCityBear said:

Chapman_is_Gone said:

ManBearLion123 said:

Excellent news. I'm betting the coaching staff is banking on universal immediate eligibility (or on Flowers committing and graduating from WMU this summer), given their known recruiting targets.

Either way, Hyder's addition solidifies the PG position for the next 3-4 years.


I'd say "excellent news" would be our relatively new head coach bringing in a 4 or 5-star recruit, and doing so through more traditional channels. Isn't that exactly what would be happening if it were clear that Fox was an excellent hire? Instead, the perception that Fox was not the right hire gets cemented a little bit more with each miss and with each non-traditional move that he makes. It becomes harder and harder to convince anyone (recruits and their parents, fans, etc.) that the new coach has the program on the right trajectory. Fox has yet to bring in one single impact player.
I tire of hearing criticism of a coach's recruiting early in his career at Cal. Did you say the same thing about Cuonzo after he brought in that recruiting class of Okoroh and Chauca? And remember that Montgomery had handed Counzo a pretty good nucleus to start with, of Wallace, Bird, Mathews, and Rooks.

Can you define what you mean by "impact player"? What does this player have to do for his team? And does he have to do it in his first season as a freshman? Or are you willing to give the player more time to make an impact on his team?


Quote:

I am also tired of hearing the implication so many fans make that a 4 or 5 star recruit is automatically an "impact player". They aren't. Some are, but not many.
I looked at the rosters for the last 20 years or so. Here is my list of 4 and 5-star Cal recruits who made an impact at Cal. Some made an impact right away, and some took a couple years to make an impact:

Rabb
Wallace
Crabbe
Christopher
Boykin
Omar Wilkes
Powe
Gates
Wethers
Bradley

Here's my list of 4 and 5-star players who failed to make an impact at Cal:

Seely
Harrison
Kately
Donte Smith

Here is my list of 4 and 5-stars who played OK, but never lived up to the hype:

Brown
Sampson
Bird
Hardin
Ubaka
Domingo

Here is my list of 2-star, 3-star and unranked recruits who made an impact at Cal:

Ryan Anderson
Justin Cobbs
David Kravish
Jorge
Theo
Tamir
Lampley
Legans
Shipp
Midgley
MSF
Mathews
Randle
Benson

My point is all but a handful of "Can't miss" recruits are unknown quantities, not just their basketball ability, but the durability of their bodies, their mental and emotional makeup, their scholastic capability, their maturity, and their ability to work with a new coach and teammates to help make their team successful. Every year, 40% of these children change their minds and transfer to another school, and often leave making no impact at the school which originally signed them. Dominic McGuire was a perfect example of that. Every year several players nationwide quit school for the NBA, and that leaves their coach with a huge hole to fill. Every season, every team has players down with injuries. Bird was injured for most of his time at Cal. Harrison played a season and had his career ended by injury. A very good center prospect, Sam Rayburn got injured, and never played a minute at Cal. Players get suspended, and some flunk out due to their poor academic performance. Others get suspended or booted off the team for breaking rules or committing crimes. Coaches try to evaluate players, but in the end it is a crap shoot or a coin flip as to whether a recruit works out.

I'm not asking that you cut Mark Fox some slack. I'm asking you not to prejudge his recruits until you see them playing for Cal for at least a season. Please don't belittle them because they don't have 4 or 5 stars after their name. If we feel that way, we'll never enjoy players like Jorge or Ryan Anderson, because they will be playing for some other coach who was willing to take a look at them.

Quote:

I tire of hearing criticism of a coach's recruiting early in his career at Cal. Did you say the same thing about Cuonzo after he brought in that recruiting class of Okoroh and Chauca? And remember that Montgomery had handed Counzo a pretty good nucleus to start with, of Wallace, Bird, Mathews, and Rooks.
Many coaches are hired, in part, because they are virtually guaranteed to bring in a highly rated player(s) with them when they arrive due to an existing relationship, or they have extremely good relationships with local travel ball teams. Fox brought neither and actually lost a few players on the Cal team that were vital to keep.

Quote:

Can you define what you mean by "impact player"? What does this player have to do for his team? And does he have to do it in his first season as a freshman? Or are you willing to give the player more time to make an impact on his team?
We've been down this road before, and it didn't go well. An "impact player" would be, by my definition, someone who makes a significantly greater contribution to the team than would a Pac-12 "replacement level" player. "Replacement level" is a baseball quant term with a precise definition and I don't know or care if it's used for basketball. A player should show clear upside from day 1 in practice and be a significant contributor to the team in games by his sophomore year.

Quote:

I am also tired of hearing the implication so many fans make that a 4 or 5 star recruit is automatically an "impact player". They aren't. Some are, but not many.
Sigh. There is a strong positive correlation between recruiting rankings and eventual college success on the court. I am not open to the idea that that notion is incorrect. You just wrote that "not many" 4 or 5 star recruits are impacts players. I couldn't disagree more.

I have huge issues with the lists of players you presented. I'll take Brown, Bird, Hardin, Kately, Sampson, and Ubaka ALL DAY LONG and we'll run the current Cal squad, or your preferred squad of unheralded overachievers, out of the freaking gym. 99 times out of 100. The current Cal squad has a prominent player with a pear-shaped body -- the body shape that the Health Department typically shows as a indicator of obesity. I mean c'mon, I'm not making this **** up. Basketball players have to pass the eyeball test, and the current Cal squad does not.

I agree with you about Domingo. He was possibly the worst player Cal has ever given significant minutes to, short of Ryan Jamison. (Now I'm just having fun with you). But he wasn't really a 4 or 5 star play when he arrived at Cal...he was a proven mediocre transfer talent.

Yes, it's easy for you to cherry pick a list of 2 and 3 star recruits from the past 25 years who did well, all the while ignoring the overwhelming number of 2 and 3 star players who failed to lead Cal to the upper ranks of the Pac 10/12. This is called having your Alex Mack-tinted glasses on. You need to take yours off.



Chapman_is_Gone
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stu said:

Chapman_is_Gone said:

I'd say "excellent news" would be our relatively new head coach bringing in a 4 or 5-star recruit, and doing so through more traditional channels.
I agree. I'd call this good news because Hyder fills a need.

Quote:

Fox has yet to bring in one single impact player.
No first-year impact players for sure. Anybody could develop, my guess is Brown (if he counts as a Fox recruit) and Kuany are the most likely. If our players are good as juniors it would indicate Fox can evaluate potential and coach people up. But it will take 2 years to find out.
Good points. I guess it's just as a huge Cal, Padres and (formerly) Chargers fan, I'm tired of waiting.
UrsineMaximus
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What was Jason Kidd ranked?? I don't see him on the list.
Big C
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Coming out of HS, Jason Kidd was a 6-star (on same 5-star scale as everybody else). But you probably knew that.
FuzzyWuzzy
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Big C said:

Coming out of HS, Jason Kidd was a 6-star (on same 5-star scale as everybody else). But you probably knew that.
Most definitely.
BearlyCareAnymore
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NathanAllen said:

oskidunker said:

Point guard who Started most games at Fresneck. Was scoring 20 per game with a 38% three percentage and 83% free throw percentages in the preseason got injured and his production went down in conference to 28% threes.

Six players are transferring out of Fresno this year, including Hyders walk on brother. I wonder what is going on there. They do have three incoming transfers, including a point guard. Maybe he can beat out Joel Brown. A solid pick up.
I'm not sure how much you can tie the injury to his production or efficiency decreasing in conference play. He scored 23 in his second game back from the injury against San Diego State. And he was still playing huge minutes after the injury.

Maybe the injury messed with him the rest of the year, but I'd be surprised if there weren't other factors contributing the number of minutes he was playing could be one. The dude was averaging 32 minutes per game, which was basically tied for most on the team. That's insane for a freshman.


I have to agree with this. Implying he is a 20 points a game guy is unfair to the kid. He had 3 big games early. He had limited production games before the injury. He barely missed time due to the injury.

He was a freshman and had a solid freshman season. Better than many guys that had great careers. It is a good pickup. Let's set reasonable expectations.
SFCityBear
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UrsineMaximus said:

What was Jason Kidd ranked?? I don't see him on the list.
You did not see Jason Kidd on my list, because as I stated in my post, I was only looking at Cal rosters going back 20 years or so. The reason I did not include players earlier than that is that there is very little data on their recruit rankings available on the internet. I used the rankings from the RSCI composite, which is the average ranking for the top 100 players for each class, as provided by several different recruit ranking services, Rivals, Scout, ESPN, 247 Sports, etc.

There used to be a great website, statsheet.com which ranked the best recruiting classes for each year and the ranking for each recruit, but they have gone out of business and disappeared. sports-reference.com uses the RSCI composite rankings, and those rankings only go back as far as 1998, which is why you see no Jason Kidd, our greatest player ever, on my list.

I remember statsheet.com had Cal's 1991 class ranked pretty high, because Braun had signed both Lamond Murray and Al Grigsby, and I think they were ranked something like #40 and #42, or vice versa. I just don't remember what Jason Kidd was ranked in the 1992 class, but you can be reasonably sure that he was ranked #1, as that was the buzz about him at the time, and every big basketball power was recruiting him intensely.
annarborbear
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This approach to turning around the Mike Williams/Wyking disaster era will require patience. The individual player development and overall team development this past year has earned some patience from me.
BearlyCareAnymore
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SFCityBear said:

UrsineMaximus said:

What was Jason Kidd ranked?? I don't see him on the list.
You did not see Jason Kidd on my list, because as I stated in my post, I was only looking at Cal rosters going back 20 years or so. The reason I did not include players earlier than that is that there is very little data on their recruit rankings available on the internet. I used the rankings from the RSCI composite, which is the average ranking for the top 100 players for each class, as provided by several different recruit ranking services, Rivals, Scout, ESPN, 247 Sports, etc.

There used to be a great website, statsheet.com which ranked the best recruiting classes for each year and the ranking for each recruit, but they have gone out of business and disappeared. sports-reference.com uses the RSCI composite rankings, and those rankings only go back as far as 1998, which is why you see no Jason Kidd, our greatest player ever, on my list.

I remember statsheet.com had Cal's 1991 class ranked pretty high, because Braun had signed both Lamond Murray and Al Grigsby, and I think they were ranked something like #40 and #42, or vice versa. I just don't remember what Jason Kidd was ranked in the 1992 class, but you can be reasonably sure that he was ranked #1, as that was the buzz about him at the time, and every big basketball power was recruiting him intensely.
You might find this interesting

https://www.mercurynews.com/2015/04/14/cals-top-recruits-and-what-theyve-done/
BearlyCareAnymore
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SFCityBear said:

Chapman_is_Gone said:

ManBearLion123 said:

Excellent news. I'm betting the coaching staff is banking on universal immediate eligibility (or on Flowers committing and graduating from WMU this summer), given their known recruiting targets.

Either way, Hyder's addition solidifies the PG position for the next 3-4 years.


I'd say "excellent news" would be our relatively new head coach bringing in a 4 or 5-star recruit, and doing so through more traditional channels. Isn't that exactly what would be happening if it were clear that Fox was an excellent hire? Instead, the perception that Fox was not the right hire gets cemented a little bit more with each miss and with each non-traditional move that he makes. It becomes harder and harder to convince anyone (recruits and their parents, fans, etc.) that the new coach has the program on the right trajectory. Fox has yet to bring in one single impact player.
I tire of hearing criticism of a coach's recruiting early in his career at Cal. Did you say the same thing about Cuonzo after he brought in that recruiting class of Okoroh and Chauca? And remember that Montgomery had handed Counzo a pretty good nucleus to start with, of Wallace, Bird, Mathews, and Rooks.

Can you define what you mean by "impact player"? What does this player have to do for his team? And does he have to do it in his first season as a freshman? Or are you willing to give the player more time to make an impact on his team?

I am also tired of hearing the implication so many fans make that a 4 or 5 star recruit is automatically an "impact player". They aren't. Some are, but not many. I looked at the rosters for the last 20 years or so. Here is my list of 4 and 5-star Cal recruits who made an impact at Cal. Some made an impact right away, and some took a couple years to make an impact:

Rabb
Wallace
Crabbe
Christopher
Boykin
Omar Wilkes
Powe
Gates
Wethers
Bradley

Here's my list of 4 and 5-star players who failed to make an impact at Cal:

Seely
Harrison
Kately
Donte Smith

Here is my list of 4 and 5-stars who played OK, but never lived up to the hype:

Brown
Sampson
Bird
Hardin
Ubaka
Domingo

Here is my list of 2-star, 3-star and unranked recruits who made an impact at Cal:

Ryan Anderson
Justin Cobbs
David Kravish
Jorge
Theo
Tamir
Lampley
Legans
Shipp
Midgley
MSF
Mathews
Randle
Benson

My point is all but a handful of "Can't miss" recruits are unknown quantities, not just their basketball ability, but the durability of their bodies, their mental and emotional makeup, their scholastic capability, their maturity, and their ability to work with a new coach and teammates to help make their team successful. Every year, 40% of these children change their minds and transfer to another school, and often leave making no impact at the school which originally signed them. Dominic McGuire was a perfect example of that. Every year several players nationwide quit school for the NBA, and that leaves their coach with a huge hole to fill. Every season, every team has players down with injuries. Bird was injured for most of his time at Cal. Harrison played a season and had his career ended by injury. A very good center prospect, Sam Rayburn got injured, and never played a minute at Cal. Players get suspended, and some flunk out due to their poor academic performance. Others get suspended or booted off the team for breaking rules or committing crimes. Coaches try to evaluate players, but in the end it is a crap shoot or a coin flip as to whether a recruit works out.

I'm not asking that you cut Mark Fox some slack. I'm asking you not to prejudge his recruits until you see them playing for Cal for at least a season. Please don't belittle them because they don't have 4 or 5 stars after their name. If we feel that way, we'll never enjoy players like Jorge or Ryan Anderson, because they will be playing for some other coach who was willing to take a look at them.

Ryan Anderson was a four star recruit both according to ESPN and the 247 composite of all rankings.
Civil Bear
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OaktownBear said:

SFCityBear said:

Chapman_is_Gone said:

ManBearLion123 said:

Excellent news. I'm betting the coaching staff is banking on universal immediate eligibility (or on Flowers committing and graduating from WMU this summer), given their known recruiting targets.

Either way, Hyder's addition solidifies the PG position for the next 3-4 years.


I'd say "excellent news" would be our relatively new head coach bringing in a 4 or 5-star recruit, and doing so through more traditional channels. Isn't that exactly what would be happening if it were clear that Fox was an excellent hire? Instead, the perception that Fox was not the right hire gets cemented a little bit more with each miss and with each non-traditional move that he makes. It becomes harder and harder to convince anyone (recruits and their parents, fans, etc.) that the new coach has the program on the right trajectory. Fox has yet to bring in one single impact player.
I tire of hearing criticism of a coach's recruiting early in his career at Cal. Did you say the same thing about Cuonzo after he brought in that recruiting class of Okoroh and Chauca? And remember that Montgomery had handed Counzo a pretty good nucleus to start with, of Wallace, Bird, Mathews, and Rooks.

Can you define what you mean by "impact player"? What does this player have to do for his team? And does he have to do it in his first season as a freshman? Or are you willing to give the player more time to make an impact on his team?

I am also tired of hearing the implication so many fans make that a 4 or 5 star recruit is automatically an "impact player". They aren't. Some are, but not many. I looked at the rosters for the last 20 years or so. Here is my list of 4 and 5-star Cal recruits who made an impact at Cal. Some made an impact right away, and some took a couple years to make an impact:

Rabb
Wallace
Crabbe
Christopher
Boykin
Omar Wilkes
Powe
Gates
Wethers
Bradley

Here's my list of 4 and 5-star players who failed to make an impact at Cal:

Seely
Harrison
Kately
Donte Smith

Here is my list of 4 and 5-stars who played OK, but never lived up to the hype:

Brown
Sampson
Bird
Hardin
Ubaka
Domingo

Here is my list of 2-star, 3-star and unranked recruits who made an impact at Cal:

Ryan Anderson
Justin Cobbs
David Kravish
Jorge
Theo
Tamir
Lampley
Legans
Shipp
Midgley
MSF
Mathews
Randle
Benson

My point is all but a handful of "Can't miss" recruits are unknown quantities, not just their basketball ability, but the durability of their bodies, their mental and emotional makeup, their scholastic capability, their maturity, and their ability to work with a new coach and teammates to help make their team successful. Every year, 40% of these children change their minds and transfer to another school, and often leave making no impact at the school which originally signed them. Dominic McGuire was a perfect example of that. Every year several players nationwide quit school for the NBA, and that leaves their coach with a huge hole to fill. Every season, every team has players down with injuries. Bird was injured for most of his time at Cal. Harrison played a season and had his career ended by injury. A very good center prospect, Sam Rayburn got injured, and never played a minute at Cal. Players get suspended, and some flunk out due to their poor academic performance. Others get suspended or booted off the team for breaking rules or committing crimes. Coaches try to evaluate players, but in the end it is a crap shoot or a coin flip as to whether a recruit works out.

I'm not asking that you cut Mark Fox some slack. I'm asking you not to prejudge his recruits until you see them playing for Cal for at least a season. Please don't belittle them because they don't have 4 or 5 stars after their name. If we feel that way, we'll never enjoy players like Jorge or Ryan Anderson, because they will be playing for some other coach who was willing to take a look at them.

Ryan Anderson was a four star recruit both according to ESPN and the 247 composite of all rankings.
Yeah, IIRC...
  • Randle also moved up to a 4-star in Rivals' final list.
  • Midgley was a top 100 player but did not play his senior HS season (ineligible).
  • Lampley and Shipp did not play their senior HS seasons due to injury
  • Tamir was recruited overseas
  • MSF was a JC transfer
  • Legans ended up transferring out because he was losing minutes to a walk-on (Diggs) and got recruited over (Midgley)
BearlyCareAnymore
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SFCityBear said:

Chapman_is_Gone said:

ManBearLion123 said:

Excellent news. I'm betting the coaching staff is banking on universal immediate eligibility (or on Flowers committing and graduating from WMU this summer), given their known recruiting targets.

Either way, Hyder's addition solidifies the PG position for the next 3-4 years.


I'd say "excellent news" would be our relatively new head coach bringing in a 4 or 5-star recruit, and doing so through more traditional channels. Isn't that exactly what would be happening if it were clear that Fox was an excellent hire? Instead, the perception that Fox was not the right hire gets cemented a little bit more with each miss and with each non-traditional move that he makes. It becomes harder and harder to convince anyone (recruits and their parents, fans, etc.) that the new coach has the program on the right trajectory. Fox has yet to bring in one single impact player.
I tire of hearing criticism of a coach's recruiting early in his career at Cal. Did you say the same thing about Cuonzo after he brought in that recruiting class of Okoroh and Chauca? And remember that Montgomery had handed Counzo a pretty good nucleus to start with, of Wallace, Bird, Mathews, and Rooks.

Can you define what you mean by "impact player"? What does this player have to do for his team? And does he have to do it in his first season as a freshman? Or are you willing to give the player more time to make an impact on his team?

I am also tired of hearing the implication so many fans make that a 4 or 5 star recruit is automatically an "impact player". They aren't. Some are, but not many. I looked at the rosters for the last 20 years or so. Here is my list of 4 and 5-star Cal recruits who made an impact at Cal. Some made an impact right away, and some took a couple years to make an impact:

Rabb
Wallace
Crabbe
Christopher
Boykin
Omar Wilkes
Powe
Gates
Wethers
Bradley

Here's my list of 4 and 5-star players who failed to make an impact at Cal:

Seely
Harrison
Kately
Donte Smith

Here is my list of 4 and 5-stars who played OK, but never lived up to the hype:

Brown
Sampson
Bird
Hardin
Ubaka
Domingo

Here is my list of 2-star, 3-star and unranked recruits who made an impact at Cal:

Ryan Anderson
Justin Cobbs
David Kravish
Jorge
Theo
Tamir
Lampley
Legans
Shipp
Midgley
MSF
Mathews
Randle
Benson

My point is all but a handful of "Can't miss" recruits are unknown quantities, not just their basketball ability, but the durability of their bodies, their mental and emotional makeup, their scholastic capability, their maturity, and their ability to work with a new coach and teammates to help make their team successful. Every year, 40% of these children change their minds and transfer to another school, and often leave making no impact at the school which originally signed them. Dominic McGuire was a perfect example of that. Every year several players nationwide quit school for the NBA, and that leaves their coach with a huge hole to fill. Every season, every team has players down with injuries. Bird was injured for most of his time at Cal. Harrison played a season and had his career ended by injury. A very good center prospect, Sam Rayburn got injured, and never played a minute at Cal. Players get suspended, and some flunk out due to their poor academic performance. Others get suspended or booted off the team for breaking rules or committing crimes. Coaches try to evaluate players, but in the end it is a crap shoot or a coin flip as to whether a recruit works out.

I'm not asking that you cut Mark Fox some slack. I'm asking you not to prejudge his recruits until you see them playing for Cal for at least a season. Please don't belittle them because they don't have 4 or 5 stars after their name. If we feel that way, we'll never enjoy players like Jorge or Ryan Anderson, because they will be playing for some other coach who was willing to take a look at them.

Other than the fact that I believe Ryan Anderson should be classified as a 4 star, I have one area of disagreement. That is your category

"Here is my list of 4 and 5-stars who played OK, but never lived up to the hype:"

One. Domingo does not belong on that list. He belongs on failed to make an impact. I also question whether he belongs on the list because he was a 4/5 star out of high school, but few still thought he was a 4 star when Cal recruited him as a transfer.

Two. As I've said before, it is not like a 4 star costs you more than a 3 star. Failing to live up to the hype should not be a downgrade in an evaluation of a career. It should be based purely on basketball performance. So you distinguish between 4 and 5 stars who had an impact, 4 and 5 stars who were okay but didn't live up to the hype and 2 and 3 stars that had an impact.

For instance. Ayinde Ubaka had a bigger impact statistically and I would argue subjectively than Legans or Midgley. Over his last 2 seasons he averaged 14 points and 4 assists. In any case, it is difficult to argue that Legans and Midgley deserve to be in a "had an impact" and Ubaka doesn't just because we hoped for more. Ubaka's junior and senior seasons were both more productive than any season put up by Legans and Midgley. His totals are better than their totals.


Jabari Bird is even bigger disparity. He blows the doors off much of your 2-3 stars that you say made an impact. 3 years in double figures and over 36% 3 point shooting.

Devon Hardin had a much bigger impact than Rod Benson. (I kind of disagree that he didn't live up to the hype because we knew we were getting a massively athletic but extremely raw guy).

Jaylen Brown had 14.6 points and 5.4 rebounds. He had a bigger impact than most of the 2/3 stars on your list.

I would agree with you about Sampson because he left, but he was a defensive force with 1.7 blocks a game, allowed our guys to pressure the perimeter in a way they never did any other Braun year, and had 6.5 rebounds a game.

So, I question the implication that the 2/3 stars on your list had an impact while not putting these guys on the 4/5 stars who had an impact list. If you want to argue that we shouldn't judge recruits based on their rankings before they play (which I agree with entirely) you certainly can't judge recruits based on their rankings afterwards.
BearlyCareAnymore
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Civil Bear said:

OaktownBear said:

SFCityBear said:

Chapman_is_Gone said:

ManBearLion123 said:

Excellent news. I'm betting the coaching staff is banking on universal immediate eligibility (or on Flowers committing and graduating from WMU this summer), given their known recruiting targets.

Either way, Hyder's addition solidifies the PG position for the next 3-4 years.


I'd say "excellent news" would be our relatively new head coach bringing in a 4 or 5-star recruit, and doing so through more traditional channels. Isn't that exactly what would be happening if it were clear that Fox was an excellent hire? Instead, the perception that Fox was not the right hire gets cemented a little bit more with each miss and with each non-traditional move that he makes. It becomes harder and harder to convince anyone (recruits and their parents, fans, etc.) that the new coach has the program on the right trajectory. Fox has yet to bring in one single impact player.
I tire of hearing criticism of a coach's recruiting early in his career at Cal. Did you say the same thing about Cuonzo after he brought in that recruiting class of Okoroh and Chauca? And remember that Montgomery had handed Counzo a pretty good nucleus to start with, of Wallace, Bird, Mathews, and Rooks.

Can you define what you mean by "impact player"? What does this player have to do for his team? And does he have to do it in his first season as a freshman? Or are you willing to give the player more time to make an impact on his team?

I am also tired of hearing the implication so many fans make that a 4 or 5 star recruit is automatically an "impact player". They aren't. Some are, but not many. I looked at the rosters for the last 20 years or so. Here is my list of 4 and 5-star Cal recruits who made an impact at Cal. Some made an impact right away, and some took a couple years to make an impact:

Rabb
Wallace
Crabbe
Christopher
Boykin
Omar Wilkes
Powe
Gates
Wethers
Bradley

Here's my list of 4 and 5-star players who failed to make an impact at Cal:

Seely
Harrison
Kately
Donte Smith

Here is my list of 4 and 5-stars who played OK, but never lived up to the hype:

Brown
Sampson
Bird
Hardin
Ubaka
Domingo

Here is my list of 2-star, 3-star and unranked recruits who made an impact at Cal:

Ryan Anderson
Justin Cobbs
David Kravish
Jorge
Theo
Tamir
Lampley
Legans
Shipp
Midgley
MSF
Mathews
Randle
Benson

My point is all but a handful of "Can't miss" recruits are unknown quantities, not just their basketball ability, but the durability of their bodies, their mental and emotional makeup, their scholastic capability, their maturity, and their ability to work with a new coach and teammates to help make their team successful. Every year, 40% of these children change their minds and transfer to another school, and often leave making no impact at the school which originally signed them. Dominic McGuire was a perfect example of that. Every year several players nationwide quit school for the NBA, and that leaves their coach with a huge hole to fill. Every season, every team has players down with injuries. Bird was injured for most of his time at Cal. Harrison played a season and had his career ended by injury. A very good center prospect, Sam Rayburn got injured, and never played a minute at Cal. Players get suspended, and some flunk out due to their poor academic performance. Others get suspended or booted off the team for breaking rules or committing crimes. Coaches try to evaluate players, but in the end it is a crap shoot or a coin flip as to whether a recruit works out.

I'm not asking that you cut Mark Fox some slack. I'm asking you not to prejudge his recruits until you see them playing for Cal for at least a season. Please don't belittle them because they don't have 4 or 5 stars after their name. If we feel that way, we'll never enjoy players like Jorge or Ryan Anderson, because they will be playing for some other coach who was willing to take a look at them.

Ryan Anderson was a four star recruit both according to ESPN and the 247 composite of all rankings.
Yeah, IIRC...
  • Randle also moved up to a 4-star in Rivals' final list.
  • Midgley was a top 100 player but did not play his senior HS season (ineligible).
  • Lampley and Shipp did not play their senior HS seasons due to injury
  • Tamir was recruited overseas
  • MSF was a JC transfer
  • Legans ended up transferring out because he was losing minutes to a walk-on (Diggs) and got recruited over (Midgley)

That is my memory of Randle.

I think the same of Midgley, but I don't know that he was going to be a 4 star.

Lampley was lightly recruited. Basically his best other offer was W. Kentucky where his brother played

I also thought Tamir is a little miscast here. He was a foreign player and we were stoked to get him. I don't think his ranking, if he had one, was relevant

MSF had 1 very unproductive year and 1 year contributing 10/5. I'm okay classifying his as other than a 4/5 star, but I'm not okay classifying him as having an impact and Brown at 14/5 in one year as not living up to hype. Because this isn't golf. 5 stars don't play with a handicap.

Legans was a three star and had an impact, but he clearly is not as good as anyone on the "okay but didn't live up to the hype" list except Domingo who doesn't belong on that list.
HoopDreams
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my memory is very fuzzy on Legans, but I was never impressed
oskidunker
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Legans has said he made a mistake leaving Cal.
Go Bears!
BeachedBear
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HoopDreams said:

my memory is very fuzzy on Legans, but I was never impressed
I would say he was a better PG and three point shooter than anyone on our roster last season (expect maybe Bradley, who didn't play the point, but was a good shooter). But honestly, that's not saying much - no disrespect to Paris, who really came on during the conference season (Legans was probably at that level by his sophomore year).

The more important aspect of Legans was his leadership and ability to recruit other players to join him at Cal. he was part of a group of AAU teammates that Braun in over the course of a few seasons.

But by the time he left for Fresneck, he seemed to have hit his ceiling and I recall his loss was not that devastating to the roster.
SFCityBear
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Chapman_is_Gone said:

SFCityBear said:

Chapman_is_Gone said:

ManBearLion123 said:

Excellent news. I'm betting the coaching staff is banking on universal immediate eligibility (or on Flowers committing and graduating from WMU this summer), given their known recruiting targets.

Either way, Hyder's addition solidifies the PG position for the next 3-4 years.


I'd say "excellent news" would be our relatively new head coach bringing in a 4 or 5-star recruit, and doing so through more traditional channels. Isn't that exactly what would be happening if it were clear that Fox was an excellent hire? Instead, the perception that Fox was not the right hire gets cemented a little bit more with each miss and with each non-traditional move that he makes. It becomes harder and harder to convince anyone (recruits and their parents, fans, etc.) that the new coach has the program on the right trajectory. Fox has yet to bring in one single impact player.
I tire of hearing criticism of a coach's recruiting early in his career at Cal. Did you say the same thing about Cuonzo after he brought in that recruiting class of Okoroh and Chauca? And remember that Montgomery had handed Counzo a pretty good nucleus to start with, of Wallace, Bird, Mathews, and Rooks.

Can you define what you mean by "impact player"? What does this player have to do for his team? And does he have to do it in his first season as a freshman? Or are you willing to give the player more time to make an impact on his team?


Quote:

I am also tired of hearing the implication so many fans make that a 4 or 5 star recruit is automatically an "impact player". They aren't. Some are, but not many.
I looked at the rosters for the last 20 years or so. Here is my list of 4 and 5-star Cal recruits who made an impact at Cal. Some made an impact right away, and some took a couple years to make an impact:

Rabb
Wallace
Crabbe
Christopher
Boykin
Omar Wilkes
Powe
Gates
Wethers
Bradley

Here's my list of 4 and 5-star players who failed to make an impact at Cal:

Seely
Harrison
Kately
Donte Smith

Here is my list of 4 and 5-stars who played OK, but never lived up to the hype:

Brown
Sampson
Bird
Hardin
Ubaka
Domingo

Here is my list of 2-star, 3-star and unranked recruits who made an impact at Cal:

Ryan Anderson
Justin Cobbs
David Kravish
Jorge
Theo
Tamir
Lampley
Legans
Shipp
Midgley
MSF
Mathews
Randle
Benson

My point is all but a handful of "Can't miss" recruits are unknown quantities, not just their basketball ability, but the durability of their bodies, their mental and emotional makeup, their scholastic capability, their maturity, and their ability to work with a new coach and teammates to help make their team successful. Every year, 40% of these children change their minds and transfer to another school, and often leave making no impact at the school which originally signed them. Dominic McGuire was a perfect example of that. Every year several players nationwide quit school for the NBA, and that leaves their coach with a huge hole to fill. Every season, every team has players down with injuries. Bird was injured for most of his time at Cal. Harrison played a season and had his career ended by injury. A very good center prospect, Sam Rayburn got injured, and never played a minute at Cal. Players get suspended, and some flunk out due to their poor academic performance. Others get suspended or booted off the team for breaking rules or committing crimes. Coaches try to evaluate players, but in the end it is a crap shoot or a coin flip as to whether a recruit works out.

I'm not asking that you cut Mark Fox some slack. I'm asking you not to prejudge his recruits until you see them playing for Cal for at least a season. Please don't belittle them because they don't have 4 or 5 stars after their name. If we feel that way, we'll never enjoy players like Jorge or Ryan Anderson, because they will be playing for some other coach who was willing to take a look at them.

Quote:

I tire of hearing criticism of a coach's recruiting early in his career at Cal. Did you say the same thing about Cuonzo after he brought in that recruiting class of Okoroh and Chauca? And remember that Montgomery had handed Counzo a pretty good nucleus to start with, of Wallace, Bird, Mathews, and Rooks.
Many coaches are hired, in part, because they are virtually guaranteed to bring in a highly rated player(s) with them when they arrive due to an existing relationship, or they have extremely good relationships with local travel ball teams. Fox brought neither and actually lost a few players on the Cal team that were vital to keep.

Quote:

Can you define what you mean by "impact player"? What does this player have to do for his team? And does he have to do it in his first season as a freshman? Or are you willing to give the player more time to make an impact on his team?
We've been down this road before, and it didn't go well. An "impact player" would be, by my definition, someone who makes a significantly greater contribution to the team than would a Pac-12 "replacement level" player. "Replacement level" is a baseball quant term with a precise definition and I don't know or care if it's used for basketball. A player should show clear upside from day 1 in practice and be a significant contributor to the team in games by his sophomore year.

Quote:

I am also tired of hearing the implication so many fans make that a 4 or 5 star recruit is automatically an "impact player". They aren't. Some are, but not many.
Sigh. There is a strong positive correlation between recruiting rankings and eventual college success on the court. I am not open to the idea that that notion is incorrect. You just wrote that "not many" 4 or 5 star recruits are impacts players. I couldn't disagree more.

I have huge issues with the lists of players you presented. I'll take Brown, Bird, Hardin, Kately, Sampson, and Ubaka ALL DAY LONG and we'll run the current Cal squad, or your preferred squad of unheralded overachievers, out of the freaking gym. 99 times out of 100. The current Cal squad has a prominent player with a pear-shaped body -- the body shape that the Health Department typically shows as a indicator of obesity. I mean c'mon, I'm not making this **** up. Basketball players have to pass the eyeball test, and the current Cal squad does not.

I agree with you about Domingo. He was possibly the worst player Cal has ever given significant minutes to, short of Ryan Jamison. (Now I'm just having fun with you). But he wasn't really a 4 or 5 star play when he arrived at Cal...he was a proven mediocre transfer talent.

Yes, it's easy for you to cherry pick a list of 2 and 3 star recruits from the past 25 years who did well, all the while ignoring the overwhelming number of 2 and 3 star players who failed to lead Cal to the upper ranks of the Pac 10/12. This is called having your Alex Mack-tinted glasses on. You need to take yours off.




BearlyCareAnymore
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HoopDreams said:

my memory is very fuzzy on Legans, but I was never impressed
Sean Lampley played a lot of point forward in Legans first two years and he did well with that support. He was really good and polished for a freshman but didn't progress as much from there. He struggled his third year and Diggs played a lot and he got moved to the 2 guard much of the time. Honestly, I think he was a decent player who was too slow for his size and his shot release was a little slow. He was really good at open threes but struggled when guarded or when closed upon.

We definitely could have used him his senior year because our depth was poor. However, I always thought that whether he would have been a net positive would have been up to Braun. Midgley needed to be the point guard. If having Legans lead Braun to not play Midgley as much or didn't play him at PG I think we would have been worse.
Civil Bear
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OaktownBear said:

HoopDreams said:

my memory is very fuzzy on Legans, but I was never impressed
Sean Lampley played a lot of point forward in Legans first two years and he did well with that support. He was really good and polished for a freshman but didn't progress as much from there. He struggled his third year and Diggs played a lot and he got moved to the 2 guard much of the time. Honestly, I think he was a decent player who was too slow for his size and his shot release was a little slow. He was really good at open threes but struggled when guarded or when closed upon.

We definitely could have used him his senior year because our depth was poor. However, I always thought that whether he would have been a net positive would have been up to Braun. Midgley needed to be the point guard. If having Legans lead Braun to not play Midgley as much or didn't play him at PG I think we would have been worse.
I don't know about point-forward, but the three frosh guards (Legans-Wethers-Shipp) were the core of the group that passed the ball around the perimeter for 30+ seconds each possession trying to work it into Lampley for two seasons - so much so that to this day Braun still gets accused of implementing that offense for 10 years.
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