Solid work Detective, we can pack up now.

The characterizations are not reflective of what our household is experiencing, to the point that it's fairly concerning a key policy maker is WAY out of touch with reality.

The characterizations are reflective of my household. My concern is Powell is being too backward looking and not enough forward looking. But here is the data compiled by the Fed. What is the counter-evidence?

#ICYMI We present evidence that four factors can explain the growth in bank deposits during the pandemic: 1) credit line drawdowns; 2) Fed asset purchases; 3) fiscal transfers to households; and 4) a higher personal savings rate: https://t.co/h2C7vaoNUi #FEDSNote

— FedResearch (@FedResearch) June 23, 2022

tequila4kapp said:

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The characterizations are not reflective of what our household is experiencing, to the point that it's fairly concerning a key policy maker is WAY out of touch with reality.

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I believe that Powell did admit that lower income households are having a more difficult time.

This morning...

Personal Income for May (reported today) showed a 0.5% rise.

PCE came in unchanged at 6.3% for May.

The core PCE Price Index (which is what the FED watches) declined to 4.7% from 4.9% in April.

Should get another update to Atlanta GDPNow, which has been hovering around 0.3% the last ten days.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (atlantafed.org)

DiabloWags said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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The characterizations are not reflective of what our household is experiencing, to the point that it's fairly concerning a key policy maker is WAY out of touch with reality.

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I believe that Powell did admit that lower income households are having a more difficult time.

This morning...

Personal Income for May (reported today) showed a 0.5% rise.

PCE came in unchanged at 6.3% for May.

The core PCE Price Index (which is what the FED watches) declined to 4.7% from 4.9% in April.

Should get another update to Atlanta GDPNow, which has been hovering around 0.3% the last ten days.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (atlantafed.org)

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More data points supporting peak inflation happened in March. Need more data points before confirming.

Copper futures peaked in the first week of March.
Same with Lumber futures.

They've been under pressure ever since.

Lumber - 57% and Copper - 26%

DiabloWags said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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The characterizations are not reflective of what our household is experiencing, to the point that it's fairly concerning a key policy maker is WAY out of touch with reality.

---

I believe that Powell did admit that lower income households are having a more difficult time.

This morning...

Personal Income for May (reported today) showed a 0.5% rise.

PCE came in unchanged at 6.3% for May.

The core PCE Price Index (which is what the FED watches) declined to 4.7% from 4.9% in April.

Should get another update to Atlanta GDPNow, which has been hovering around 0.3% the last ten days.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (atlantafed.org)

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Yep. We are not in that category. I fully appreciate one person's experience is anecdotal. I see / am aware of the assorted numbers on the economy. We are experiencing something pretty different from those reports. Maybe it is just us...

tequila4kapp said:

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Yep. We are not in that category. I fully appreciate one person's experience is anecdotal. I see / am aware of the assorted numbers on the economy. We are experiencing something pretty different from those reports. Maybe it is just us...

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And what is it that you your household is experiencing?

DiabloWags said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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Yep. We are not in that category. I fully appreciate one person's experience is anecdotal. I see / am aware of the assorted numbers on the economy. We are experiencing something pretty different from those reports. Maybe it is just us...

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And what is it that you your household is experiencing?

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I'm not sure what the benefits are of hearing an anecdote. People heavy into crypto or tech stocks have gotten crushed this year. Unemployment is still relatively low but some people have been more adversely impacted than others, particularly by the knock-on effects from rising interest rates. The tech layoffs are real and I expect we will see more ripple effects throughout society as the blast radius increases along with interest rates.

I'm at a small company that hasn't yet been terribly impacted but if we aren't able to access the capital markets at some point, we are dead. I'm hoping we are back to zero interest rates by the end of next year to recover from the looming recession. Apparently Michael Burry thinks that interest rates will be coming down soon. I don't have any reason to believe that but it would be nice from my perspective.

Unit2Sucks said:

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DiabloWags said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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Yep. We are not in that category. I fully appreciate one person's experience is anecdotal. I see / am aware of the assorted numbers on the economy. We are experiencing something pretty different from those reports. Maybe it is just us...

---

And what is it that you your household is experiencing?

---

I'm not sure what the benefits are of hearing an anecdote. People heavy into crypto or tech stocks have gotten crushed this year. Unemployment is still relatively low but some people have been more adversely impacted than others, particularly by the knock-on effects from rising interest rates. The tech layoffs are real and I expect we will see more ripple effects throughout society as the blast radius increases along with interest rates.

I'm at a small company that hasn't yet been terribly impacted but if we aren't able to access the capital markets at some point, we are dead. I'm hoping we are back to zero interest rates by the end of next year to recover from the looming recession. Apparently Michael Burry thinks that interest rates will be coming down soon. I don't have any reason to believe that but it would be nice from my perspective.

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I know you are talking about the Fed Funds rate but the following Treasury rates are already down from their highs

10 year - down 50 basis points
2 year - down 49 basis points
1 year - down 26 basis points

dajo9 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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DiabloWags said:

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tequila4kapp said:

---

Yep. We are not in that category. I fully appreciate one person's experience is anecdotal. I see / am aware of the assorted numbers on the economy. We are experiencing something pretty different from those reports. Maybe it is just us...

---

And what is it that you your household is experiencing?

---

I'm not sure what the benefits are of hearing an anecdote. People heavy into crypto or tech stocks have gotten crushed this year. Unemployment is still relatively low but some people have been more adversely impacted than others, particularly by the knock-on effects from rising interest rates. The tech layoffs are real and I expect we will see more ripple effects throughout society as the blast radius increases along with interest rates.

I'm at a small company that hasn't yet been terribly impacted but if we aren't able to access the capital markets at some point, we are dead. I'm hoping we are back to zero interest rates by the end of next year to recover from the looming recession. Apparently Michael Burry thinks that interest rates will be coming down soon. I don't have any reason to believe that but it would be nice from my perspective.

---

I know you are talking about the Fed Funds rate but the following Treasury rates are already down from their highs

10 year - down 50 basis points
2 year - down 49 basis points
1 year - down 26 basis points

---

I care about whatever rates will cause investors to apply low discount rates to future earnings which will increase the P/E multiples for public companies and will filter down to startups. For my personal situation, being able to raise VC financing on attractive terms is going to meaningfully impact my life and career.

Unit2Sucks said:

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dajo9 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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DiabloWags said:

---

tequila4kapp said:

---

Yep. We are not in that category. I fully appreciate one person's experience is anecdotal. I see / am aware of the assorted numbers on the economy. We are experiencing something pretty different from those reports. Maybe it is just us...

---

And what is it that you your household is experiencing?

---

I'm not sure what the benefits are of hearing an anecdote. People heavy into crypto or tech stocks have gotten crushed this year. Unemployment is still relatively low but some people have been more adversely impacted than others, particularly by the knock-on effects from rising interest rates. The tech layoffs are real and I expect we will see more ripple effects throughout society as the blast radius increases along with interest rates.

I'm at a small company that hasn't yet been terribly impacted but if we aren't able to access the capital markets at some point, we are dead. I'm hoping we are back to zero interest rates by the end of next year to recover from the looming recession. Apparently Michael Burry thinks that interest rates will be coming down soon. I don't have any reason to believe that but it would be nice from my perspective.

---

I know you are talking about the Fed Funds rate but the following Treasury rates are already down from their highs

10 year - down 50 basis points
2 year - down 49 basis points
1 year - down 26 basis points

---

I care about whatever rates will cause investors to apply low discount rates to future earnings which will increase the P/E multiples for public companies and will filter down to startups. For my personal situation, being able to raise VC financing on attractive terms is going to meaningfully impact my life and career.

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I recently listened to an Odd Lots podcast dated 6/23 on the VC world. Was a little dry for me but since you are living in that world you may find it more interesting.

Well, I pulled up the Atlanta Fed link to their real-time GDPNow page and low and behold today's latest numbers put us at -1.0% for GDP in Q2.

That's a pretty sharp break from just a few days ago.

Hence the 10-year yield now at 2.97%